GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Bernanke does it again for commodities after he said that the U.S. economy may slip into recession, but said growth should pick up later this year as the impact of interest rate cuts and other emergency steps take root. Nothing special over these comments and that the rise in precious metals and base metals was due to short covering and fresh position building before the March payrolls. Crude oil prices rose sharply after the US inventory numbers. Markets are just searching for an excuse to go long in crude oil and energy prices. It will be volatile trade for the rest of the week in all metals and energies.

March payrolls are expected to be negative 50,000 and if the number comes in lower than expected, chances of a half a percentage interest rate cut will rise and the euro/usd will test 1.60. Precious metals will also rise. The Indian rupee has been volatile against the US dollar following the equity markets. Unless the rupee breaks 40.25 against the US dollar in the short term, the rupee will gain to 39.80 and 39.50. Fridays close will set the direction for the rest of April in all metals and energies.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0

Copper has to break $394-$397 for $402 and $409. If copper fails to break $397 then a fall to $379 and $369 is on the cards.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.60

Crude oil is bullish over $102.60. Still a sell on rise strategy till $110 is not broken.

MCXARUN
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