LONG VIEW

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 885-900 UPTO 925 WITH ANY CLOSE ABOVE $870 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $829

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22000 UPTO 22500 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
ABOVE 20175/21325-500, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 18550/18300/18075 & 17750 DOWN TREND AGAIN
(MAR)

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 250-52/246/242 UPTO 237 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
BELOW 258, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 283/293 UPTREND AGAIN(FEB)

ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 109-111 UPTO 115 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 102.25 & 105(JAN)

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 3795BEARISH BELOW 3780



GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11043 BEARISH BELOW 11005



SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20236 BEARISH BELOW 20165



COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 284 BEARISH BELOW 283



LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 103.90 BEARISH BELOW 103.50



NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1154 BEARISH BELOW 1148



ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 100.90BEARISH BELOW 100.50

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energy

Crude oil rose, rebounding from its biggest decline in five weeks, on speculation U.S. inventories fell from their lowest in three years.

· The U.S. Energy Department will probably say that crude-oil stockpiles fell 1.25 million barrels from 289.6 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices recovered from a tumble of almost $3 in New York yesterday on concerns of a U.S. growth slowdown.

· Nymex Crude oil for February delivery rose as much as $2.4, to $97.54 a barrel and closed in positive territory while MCx Crude Oil Jan traded towards the high of Rs. 3822 per barrel and cloed with gains

· ABN Amro Holding NV raised its Brent crude-oil price forecast for this year by 36 percent to $75 a barrel because of oil's record last week. The bank also increased its estimate for Brent in 2009 by 30 percent to $65 a barrel, and for 2010 by 22 percent to $55, in an e-mailed report today. ABN Amro said that prices will nonetheless ``trend down'' as oil is currently overvalued, a view shared by UBS AG.

· The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production 1.2 percent in December as the United Arab Emirates raised output after finishing maintenance of fields, a Bloomberg News survey showed.OPEC pumped an average 32.07 million barrels a day last month, up 370,000 barrels from November, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.

· Production by the 12 members with quotas, all except Iraq, rose 435,000 barrels to 29.73 million barrels a day, almost 60,000 barrels above the group's new production target of 29.673 million barrels a day. OPEC is scheduled to meet on Feb. 1 in Vienna, where it will assess winter oil demand, global economic growth and decide on production targets.

· Gasoline inventories probably gained 1.6 million barrels, according to the analyst survey, the ninth straight increase. Distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose a second week, gaining 1 million barrels.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3800-3780 for target of 3840 and 3890 with stop loss below 3765



MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 310-308 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 302

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Base Metals

Base metals rose on MCX and LME tracing the gains in gold, recovering oil and weak dollar. The complex has also been lifted on account of index re-weighting. Base metals followed on from overnight strength Tuesday on a mix of index-related fund buying and short-covering although traders said that that the rally is likely to be short lived.

· LME base metals may get a near-term boost from the annual index reweightings which have officially begun this session, but once rebalancing is completed next week week, traders expect economic concerns to return to the fore.

· The reweighting of the Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index, or DJAIGCI, takes place each year in January on a price-percentage basis between the fifth and ninth trading day of the year. This means it begins Tuesday and ends Jan. 14. This year, 2007 underperformers nickel, zinc and aluminum are expected to benefit the most from related buying.

· The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) pending home sales index fell sharply by 2.6 pct in November to 87.6, near its 2007 low but still above readings in August and September.

· The pending home sales index counts contracts signed for buying homes, indicating the existing home sales rate one to two months ahead when the sales actually close and are counted in that report. While the number dropped in November

· The Thai cabinet has asked the National Economic & Social Development Board to conduct studies into development of southern seaboard infrastructure to facilitate investment in upstream steel projects.

· Striking workers at Zambia"s Chinese-owned Chambishi Copper Smelter have returned to work after fruitful talks with management Monday. 'Workers are back at work to allow labor talks to continue' Mando said by telephone from Chingola, in Zambia"s copper belt. However, Mando said the two sides hadn"t agreed on any wage deal. Up to 500 construction workers at the smelter went on strike last week demanding a 40% wage increase and better working conditions.

MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 283-284 for the target of 290 and 294 with stop loss at 276.50



MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Jan: Buy at 101 for the target of 104 and 106 with stop loss at 99.50



MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Jan: Buy at 1150-45 for the target of 1190 and 1215 with stop loss at 1135



MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 103.5-104 for the target of 106.15 and 108.50 with stop loss at 102.20

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Bullion

MCX Gold Feb prices on Tuesday pierced through the ceiling to reach its new peak of Rs 11,056 per ten gram on the bullion market due to aggressive buying by jewellers in line with a firming global trend. Buying was more of a speculative nature as some of the stockists enlarged their positions in future trading, while some purchases by jewellery fabricators also supported the trend.

· The metal last reached an all-time high in New York in 1980, when the dollar was weakening, oil prices were rising and the U.S. and Iran were at loggerheads. U.S. warships were confronted by Iranian ``fast boats'' in the Straits of Hormuz on Jan. 6, the U.S. Defense Department said yesterday. The straits are the sea route for about a quarter of the world's oil. The dollar fell today against 15 of 16 major currencies.

· The Shanghai Futures Exchange, China's biggest commodity bourse by value, set a reference price equivalent to 209.99 yuan a gram ($898 an ounce) for the gold futures contracts for delivery from June to December that start trading tomorrow, the exchange said in a notice posted on its Web site today.

· US homebuyers in November signed fewer contracts to buy previously owned homes than they did in October, ending a two-month streak of increased pending home sales.

Indian Bullion Spot Market

Gold and Silver prices skyrocketed in spot markets tracing the sharp gains in international markets as well as a weak dollar. Meanwhile oil traded firm at around $96 per barrel.


MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10980-11000 for the target of 11090 and 11140 with stop loss at 10955



MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 20100-20080 for the target of 20280 and 20360 with stop loss at 19980

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outlook

February gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended this winter's rally and closed above monthly resistance crossing
at 874.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends last month's
rally, Monthly resistance crossing at 900.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
849.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 884.00 then monthly
resistance crossing at 900.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 849.60 then the 20-day moving average
crossing at 828.90.

March silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday and as it extended the rally off December's high and closed above the 75%
retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 15.768. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the 87% retracement level of the November-December
decline crossing at 16.106 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.773 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.850 then the 87% retracement level crossing
at 16.106. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.150 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.773.

March copper closed sharply higher on Tuesday extending the rally off December's low and closed above the 50% retracement
level of the October-December decline crossing at 330.22. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 340.79 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 332.00 then the 62% retracement level crossing at 340.79. First support is today's
low crossing at 313.00 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.77.

February crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline and closed above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 96.78. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 94.02 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If February renews last week's rally above
November's high crossing at 98.12, upside targets will be hard to project now that February has traded into uncharted territory.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 100.09. First support is Monday's low crossing at 94.47. Second support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.02.

February Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally above the 38% retracement level of the
November-December decline crossing at 7.759. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-December decline
crossing at 8.010 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.000 then the 50% retracement level
crossing at 8.010. First support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 7.759. Second support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.558.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It has been an impressive rally by gold. Gold's rise has been primarily due to the continuous fall in US and European stock markets. Gold's rise in the first five trading sessions of 2008 has beaten all expectations and has forced analysts to upgrade their short term forecasts. The launch of the first middle east gold exchange traded fund (ETF) further supported gold. Not only gold, but all the metals (including base metals) rallied. Commodities and specifically metals will certainly be the investment theme for 2008 in developed nations.

It’s a momentum market for gold and the momentum is bullish. Technically gold is highly over brought and will be vulnerable for a correction. There is an old saying that "market moves on sentiment" and sentiment is certainly bullish. I am more of a silver bull than a gold bull and hopefully silver should do some catch up with gold. Silver has underperformed in the past two years, but should outperform gold soon. The next three days will be crucial for silver.

Today US weekly crude oil inventories will tell whether crude oil breaks $102 or falls to $92.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$903.60

$876 price target achieved and we are nearing $900 price target. As long as $873.30 holds downside will be limited. If gold breaks $907 then $943.50 is the target.

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