energy

Crude oil rose, rebounding from its biggest decline in five weeks, on speculation U.S. inventories fell from their lowest in three years.

· The U.S. Energy Department will probably say that crude-oil stockpiles fell 1.25 million barrels from 289.6 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices recovered from a tumble of almost $3 in New York yesterday on concerns of a U.S. growth slowdown.

· Nymex Crude oil for February delivery rose as much as $2.4, to $97.54 a barrel and closed in positive territory while MCx Crude Oil Jan traded towards the high of Rs. 3822 per barrel and cloed with gains

· ABN Amro Holding NV raised its Brent crude-oil price forecast for this year by 36 percent to $75 a barrel because of oil's record last week. The bank also increased its estimate for Brent in 2009 by 30 percent to $65 a barrel, and for 2010 by 22 percent to $55, in an e-mailed report today. ABN Amro said that prices will nonetheless ``trend down'' as oil is currently overvalued, a view shared by UBS AG.

· The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production 1.2 percent in December as the United Arab Emirates raised output after finishing maintenance of fields, a Bloomberg News survey showed.OPEC pumped an average 32.07 million barrels a day last month, up 370,000 barrels from November, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.

· Production by the 12 members with quotas, all except Iraq, rose 435,000 barrels to 29.73 million barrels a day, almost 60,000 barrels above the group's new production target of 29.673 million barrels a day. OPEC is scheduled to meet on Feb. 1 in Vienna, where it will assess winter oil demand, global economic growth and decide on production targets.

· Gasoline inventories probably gained 1.6 million barrels, according to the analyst survey, the ninth straight increase. Distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose a second week, gaining 1 million barrels.

MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3800-3780 for target of 3840 and 3890 with stop loss below 3765



MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 310-308 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 302

MCXARUN
9994500540