GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s more of a US dollar depreciation story and interest rates for metals and energies than anything else. As long as US dollar continues to fall, crude oil will remain firm and gold will find investment demand on dips. European central bank will likely raise interest rates by a quarter today and will signal on more inflation controlling measures to come in the future. This can result in euro/usd breaking the 1.60 mark today. Unless the US June payrolls comes in positive we expect the US dollar to trade with a weaker bias for the rest of the week. However considering the present situation, only the brave hearted will short on the long weekend.

Copper has been gaining as more and more mine workers in Peru join the strike. Zinc, Nickel and lead have fallen instead of rising. Here the fundamental comes up. Zinc and Nickel are not bullish hence lack of investment interest and fall in prices. Further copper is considered as a hedge against a US dollar decline whereas zinc and lead are not. In 2008 there has been more or less a direct relationship between copper prices and the US dollar. Copper and other commodities are about investment demand in 2008. Fund manager always go long they never short sell. Copper and other commodities will be dictated by investment demand for the remaining six months of the year. LME Copper has a possibility of nearing $10,000 mark if it floats over $9,000 for two consecutive weeks.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $147.60

Bearish below $138. As long as crude oil holds $138 it will target $147 and $152.

PLATINUM OCTOBER

Intra day bullish over $2056 targeting $2096 and $2132.

MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)

1552 price target achieved. Carbon credit targets 1600-1650 by next week as long as 1516 and 1488 holds. Volatility will rise with rise in prices.


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