The volatility in commodities markets is very high. This is driving some of the day traders away from the market. I have found that some of the traders who used to trade in 1kg of gold in MCX have shifted to 100 grams of gold in MCX due to volatility. Intra day markets move in a certain trend, if one trades against the trend, the stop loss is bound to be hit. Many a times first the stop loss is hit and then the target comes. This is happening on intra day trades. The best way to beat this is (A) Determine the trend (B) Wait for the prices to near the expected buying or selling level (C) Use higher stop losses. When the average intra day volatility in MCX is over Rs.200 it is no use putting a stop loss of Rs.40 on a trade. (D) Do not wait for the target, exit even when prices near the same.
The Federal Reserve ramped up its liquidity support operations again in an effort to reduce money market strains and pre-empt the possibility of funding crises at the year-end or at other stress points. The Fed said it would offer three-month cash loans to banks and create a new options auction facility. It also said it would give investment banks and other primary dealers extended access to emergency cash and loans of Treasury securities until January 30. The options facility is similar to the strategy used by the Fed in 1999 to deal with the risk of a millennium Y2K liquidity crisis. The Fed will auction $50bn of options giving dealers the right but not the obligation to swap illiquid securities for Treasuries over periods of likely funding stress, such as the year-end. In my view the Fed thinks that printing more US dollars can solve the US pain of lower economic growth. This is very positive for gold and other safe havens in the long term. Only investors need to withstand short term volatility.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0
Copper needs to fall below $349 for another round of selling to $332. Resistance is at $368 and $378.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, July 31, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "close below 12575 test 12375 atleast/towards 12250 in coming days" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW=12284 book profit on sell below 12670-60/12585, for the day buy ard 12332-36 S/L 12325 and T/p 12390/ 12435 OR sell ard 12700-710 S/L 12715 and T/p 12660-12620 (any time close above 13465/13775 bullish while close below 12525/12150/11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON REPORT Dt.23-7-08 "close below 24725 test 24300 & 23700 in coming days" ACHIEVED EXACT AS YESTERDAY LOW=23670. for the day buy ard 24120-130 S/L 24100 and T/p 24220-300/24375 OR buy only abv 24750-775 S/L 24675 and T/p 24900/25000/sustain close abv 24775 test 25200 in coming days (any time close below 23670/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 24775/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 5400 S/L 5375 and T/p 5435-40/towards 5510-40 in coming days OR buy ard 5180-82 S/L 5170 and T/p 5210-40/towards 5300, Now as long support of 5200 & 5100, more bounce back expected (now crude need to close above 5380/5680/6040/ 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5100-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 342, for the day buy abv 344 S/L 342.5 and T/p 346/349-50 OR buy ard 336.4-336.8 S/L 336 and T/p 339-342 (upside strong rally only on close above 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "close below 12575 test 12375 atleast/towards 12250 in coming days" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW=12284 book profit on sell below 12670-60/12585, for the day buy ard 12332-36 S/L 12325 and T/p 12390/ 12435 OR sell ard 12700-710 S/L 12715 and T/p 12660-12620 (any time close above 13465/13775 bullish while close below 12525/12150/11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON REPORT Dt.23-7-08 "close below 24725 test 24300 & 23700 in coming days" ACHIEVED EXACT AS YESTERDAY LOW=23670. for the day buy ard 24120-130 S/L 24100 and T/p 24220-300/24375 OR buy only abv 24750-775 S/L 24675 and T/p 24900/25000/sustain close abv 24775 test 25200 in coming days (any time close below 23670/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 24775/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 5400 S/L 5375 and T/p 5435-40/towards 5510-40 in coming days OR buy ard 5180-82 S/L 5170 and T/p 5210-40/towards 5300, Now as long support of 5200 & 5100, more bounce back expected (now crude need to close above 5380/5680/6040/ 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5100-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 342, for the day buy abv 344 S/L 342.5 and T/p 346/349-50 OR buy ard 336.4-336.8 S/L 336 and T/p 339-342 (upside strong rally only on close above 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
zinc intraday
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.31%. Market has opened at 82.45 & made a low of 79.95 versus the day high of 83. The total volume for the day was at 5929 lots and the open interest was at 5424.Now support for the zinc is seen at 79.2 and below could see a test of 78.05. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 82.25, a move above could see prices testing 84.15.
Trading Idea
TRADING RANGE IS 78.00-85.00.
A DIP TODAY TILL 76-77 LOOK TO BUY FOR TGT 79-80. LEVEL
BUY ZINC ABV 81.20 SL 80.40 TGT 82-83.40-84.60. MCX
IMP SUPPORT IS 79.40 LEVEL SPREAD IS BEST IN JULY AND AUG
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Idea
TRADING RANGE IS 78.00-85.00.
A DIP TODAY TILL 76-77 LOOK TO BUY FOR TGT 79-80. LEVEL
BUY ZINC ABV 81.20 SL 80.40 TGT 82-83.40-84.60. MCX
IMP SUPPORT IS 79.40 LEVEL SPREAD IS BEST IN JULY AND AUG
MCXARUN
9994500540
nickel intraday
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -234 against the previous of 978 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 786.4 a kg after opening at Rs .818.1, and last traded at Rs 788.9.For today market is looking for the support at 776.00, a break below could see a test of 763.00 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 812.00, a move above could see prices testing 836.00.
Trading Ideas
SELL NICKEL AUG @ 800-810 SL 823 TGT 780-765-740. MCX
REMEMBER AFTER EXPIRTY NICKLE TARGET IS 680 ON MCX
A GOOD RECOVERY CAN BE SEEN IN THE MARKET.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas
SELL NICKEL AUG @ 800-810 SL 823 TGT 780-765-740. MCX
REMEMBER AFTER EXPIRTY NICKLE TARGET IS 680 ON MCX
A GOOD RECOVERY CAN BE SEEN IN THE MARKET.
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Yesterday the LME copper was 675mt against the previous of 2575mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 335.4 a kg after opening at Rs 340.95, and last traded at Rs337.4.For today market is looking for the support at 334.6, a break below could see a test of 331.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 341, a move above could see prices testing 344.6.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 331.80-344.60.
SELL COPPER @ 339-340 SL 342.60 TGT 337.60-336.80-334.50. MCX
IMP RANGE IS 332-342 LEVEL
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 331.80-344.60.
SELL COPPER @ 339-340 SL 342.60 TGT 337.60-336.80-334.50. MCX
IMP RANGE IS 332-342 LEVEL
MCXARUN
9994500540
mcx crude intraday
Crude oil traded near the lowest in 12 weeks on speculation gasoline demand growth in Asia and the U.S. may slow after near-record prices reduced consumption. Now support for the crude is seen at 5088 and below could see a test of 4996. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5319, a move above could see prices testing 5458.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 4990-5450.
SELL CRUDE ONLY BELOW 120$ YESTERDAY LOW WAS 120.54$
SELL CRUDE @ 5240-5260 SL 5286 TGT 5200-5178-5145-5100. MCX
SELL CRUDE BELOW 5100 FOR TGT 4860-4800 LEVEL.
EXPECTED INVENTORY TODAY IS -1.2M AGAINST -1.6M.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 4990-5450.
SELL CRUDE ONLY BELOW 120$ YESTERDAY LOW WAS 120.54$
SELL CRUDE @ 5240-5260 SL 5286 TGT 5200-5178-5145-5100. MCX
SELL CRUDE BELOW 5100 FOR TGT 4860-4800 LEVEL.
EXPECTED INVENTORY TODAY IS -1.2M AGAINST -1.6M.
MCXARUN
9994500540
NYMEX crude intraday
Oil could not sustain Monday’s gains, and fell to $120-levels in NYMEX, the lowest in more than a month.
Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $125.85 - $120.42, before settling at $121.80 a barrel.
In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.
Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s EIA report for update on US oil inventories.
Fresh attacks on Nigerian pipelines and comments by Iran's president raised concerns over global oil supplies had lifted the prices above $125 a barrel on Monday.
The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns. The two-week deadline from world powers for Iran to give a final answer on its nuclear plans will end on Saturday.
A Nigerian militant group claimed on Monday to have attacked a couple of pipelines owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.
OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles in the second week of July, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.
DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $125.65 - $120.50 and closed at $122.19 ($124.73).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $122.80; bearish below $122.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $125.85 - $120.42, before settling at $121.80 a barrel.
In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.
Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s EIA report for update on US oil inventories.
Fresh attacks on Nigerian pipelines and comments by Iran's president raised concerns over global oil supplies had lifted the prices above $125 a barrel on Monday.
The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns. The two-week deadline from world powers for Iran to give a final answer on its nuclear plans will end on Saturday.
A Nigerian militant group claimed on Monday to have attacked a couple of pipelines owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.
OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles in the second week of July, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.
DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $125.65 - $120.50 and closed at $122.19 ($124.73).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $122.80; bearish below $122.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
International spot gold traded in the range $933.00 - $913.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $916.85 ($929.90).
The greenback found support in decreasing oil and a Conference Board report that showed a rise in US consumer confidence in July, to 51.9 from a June reading that was revised to 51.0 from a prior estimate of 50.4.
But housing sector worries remained, as Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices in 20 major US cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, and fell 1% in May compared with April.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin had said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.
Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.
However worries remained as two more US banks were shut down by federal regulators late Friday, bringing the number of bank failures so far this year to seven.
Dollar had drifted lower on Friday after a report from Commerce Department showed US new home sales in US fell 0.6 % in June, the second straight monthly decline, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000.
Among US data released on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 34,000 to stand at 406,000 for the week ended July 19, according to the US Labor Department.
The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% fall in US existing home sales in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million, the lowest level in 10 years.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Recovery expected above $936.60. Resistances are $943, $950, $959; supports $923, $915, $908.
Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $937.00 – $918.90 and closed at $922.60
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923
MCXARUN
9994500540
silver intraday
Silver has finally stabilized back toward 17.49. Friday’s move toward 17.00 seemed like an overshoot liquidation and it looks like we should continue to recover over the next couple of days towards 18.00. Silver has been particularly weak, so the risk is for another move lower toward 16.50.
The gold-silver ratio set fresh highs near 53.59 earlier today, but has since backed off to the 53.18 level. Now support for the silver is seen at 24010 and below could see a test of 23713. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 246753, a move above could see prices testing 25043.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 23710-25050.
SELL SILVER @ 24580-650 SL 24756 TGT 24480-24411-24335-24220. MCX
A BREAK FO 24000 LEVEL WILL PULL THE MARKET TILL 23650-23480 LEVEL.
IMP WILL BE 17.22-17.80 IN SILVER SPOT
MCXARUN
9994500540
The gold-silver ratio set fresh highs near 53.59 earlier today, but has since backed off to the 53.18 level. Now support for the silver is seen at 24010 and below could see a test of 23713. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 246753, a move above could see prices testing 25043.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 23710-25050.
SELL SILVER @ 24580-650 SL 24756 TGT 24480-24411-24335-24220. MCX
A BREAK FO 24000 LEVEL WILL PULL THE MARKET TILL 23650-23480 LEVEL.
IMP WILL BE 17.22-17.80 IN SILVER SPOT
MCXARUN
9994500540
gold intraday
Gold -The real test remains a move back above 938/946, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and June pivot respectively. Our view is that we will try those levels over the coming couple of days, but by Thursday or Friday the market will take a run at July lows near 913.
A downside break of this low could see 888 fairly quickly. Only a close back above 946 would cancel the bearish outlook. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12529 and below could see a test of 12438. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12780, a move above could see prices testing 12940.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12438-12940.
SELL GOLD @ 12680-720 SL 12760 TGT 12645-611-580-535-480. MCX
OR TRADER CAN SELL GOLD BELOW 12560 SL 12640 TGT 12535-12480-12360. MCX
YESTERDAY MKT FALLEN AS CRUDE SHOWN THE PULL BACK TO THE SUPPORT LEVEL AT 120$
MCXARUN
9994500540
A downside break of this low could see 888 fairly quickly. Only a close back above 946 would cancel the bearish outlook. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12529 and below could see a test of 12438. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12780, a move above could see prices testing 12940.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12438-12940.
SELL GOLD @ 12680-720 SL 12760 TGT 12645-611-580-535-480. MCX
OR TRADER CAN SELL GOLD BELOW 12560 SL 12640 TGT 12535-12480-12360. MCX
YESTERDAY MKT FALLEN AS CRUDE SHOWN THE PULL BACK TO THE SUPPORT LEVEL AT 120$
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=12850 AS DAYS HIGH=12850 book profit on sell below 12670-60, for the day sell below 12585 S/L 12605 and T/p 12525/close below test 12375 atleast/towards 12250 in coming days OR buy only abv 12850 S/L 12830 and T/p 12890/towards 13000 (any time close above 13465/ 13775 bullish while close below 12525/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=24775 AS DAYS HIGH=24745 for the day sell only below 24075 & more below 24000 S/L 24170 and T/p 24850/towards 24675 OR buy only abv 24750-775 S/L 24675 and T/p 24900-950/25075/upto 25175 (any time close below 24000/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 24775/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=5370 AS Days HIGH =5367 book profit on sell below 5205-180, for the day sell below 5130 S/L 5160 and T/p 5100-5060/below down rally sharp OR sell ard 5305-10 S/L 5315 and T/p 5280/5240, only sustain abv 5370 trigger buy call and uprally again (now crude need to close above 5370/5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5130/5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=342 AS DAYS HIGH=341.8 for the day sell below 335 S/L 336.5 and T/p 333/330/close below seen down rally sharp OR buy only abv 342 S/L 340.5 and T/p 343-343.5/ towards 346 (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 333-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=12850 AS DAYS HIGH=12850 book profit on sell below 12670-60, for the day sell below 12585 S/L 12605 and T/p 12525/close below test 12375 atleast/towards 12250 in coming days OR buy only abv 12850 S/L 12830 and T/p 12890/towards 13000 (any time close above 13465/ 13775 bullish while close below 12525/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=24775 AS DAYS HIGH=24745 for the day sell only below 24075 & more below 24000 S/L 24170 and T/p 24850/towards 24675 OR buy only abv 24750-775 S/L 24675 and T/p 24900-950/25075/upto 25175 (any time close below 24000/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 24775/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=5370 AS Days HIGH =5367 book profit on sell below 5205-180, for the day sell below 5130 S/L 5160 and T/p 5100-5060/below down rally sharp OR sell ard 5305-10 S/L 5315 and T/p 5280/5240, only sustain abv 5370 trigger buy call and uprally again (now crude need to close above 5370/5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5130/5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=342 AS DAYS HIGH=341.8 for the day sell below 335 S/L 336.5 and T/p 333/330/close below seen down rally sharp OR buy only abv 342 S/L 340.5 and T/p 343-343.5/ towards 346 (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 333-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
buy abv 12810 & more abv 12850 S/L 12790 and T/p 12880-890/towards 13000 OR sell below 12670-660 S/L 12685 and T/p 12630-580/12525/below down rally towards 12375 in coming days (any time close above 13465/ 13775 bullish while close below 12525/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500/ 24950/24225/24150, for the day buy only abv 24775-800 S/L 24730 and T/p 24900-950/25075/upto 25175 OR sell below 24375 S/L 24440 and T/p 24300-225/150/24000/close below test 23650 atleast in coming days (any time close below 24000/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE = 5320 AS Days HIGH =5317 for the day buy only abv 5370 S/L 5350 and T/p 5405-5435/ towards 5510 OR sell below 5205/5180 & more below 5150 S/L 5220 and T/p 5100-5060/below down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/ 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5175-5150/5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 344/338, for the day buy only abv 342 S/L 340.5 and T/p 343-343.5/towards 346 OR sell below 337 S/L 338 and T/p 335.5/333/ 330.5/sustain below down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 333-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
buy abv 12810 & more abv 12850 S/L 12790 and T/p 12880-890/towards 13000 OR sell below 12670-660 S/L 12685 and T/p 12630-580/12525/below down rally towards 12375 in coming days (any time close above 13465/ 13775 bullish while close below 12525/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500/ 24950/24225/24150, for the day buy only abv 24775-800 S/L 24730 and T/p 24900-950/25075/upto 25175 OR sell below 24375 S/L 24440 and T/p 24300-225/150/24000/close below test 23650 atleast in coming days (any time close below 24000/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE = 5320 AS Days HIGH =5317 for the day buy only abv 5370 S/L 5350 and T/p 5405-5435/ towards 5510 OR sell below 5205/5180 & more below 5150 S/L 5220 and T/p 5100-5060/below down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/ 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5175-5150/5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 344/338, for the day buy only abv 342 S/L 340.5 and T/p 343-343.5/towards 346 OR sell below 337 S/L 338 and T/p 335.5/333/ 330.5/sustain below down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 333-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex crude intraday
Fresh attacks on Nigerian pipelines and comments by Iran's president raised concerns over global oil supplies and lifted the prices above $125 a barrel in NYMEX.
Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $122.63 - $125.22, before settling at $125.03 a barrel.
The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns. The two-week deadline from world powers for Iran to give a final answer on its nuclear plans will end on Saturday.
A Nigerian militant group claimed on Monday to have attacked a couple of pipelines owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.
OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles in the second week of July, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.
DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $122.76 - $125.10 and closed at $124.73 ($123.26).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $124.55; bearish below $124.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $122.63 - $125.22, before settling at $125.03 a barrel.
The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns. The two-week deadline from world powers for Iran to give a final answer on its nuclear plans will end on Saturday.
A Nigerian militant group claimed on Monday to have attacked a couple of pipelines owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.
OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles in the second week of July, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.
DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $122.76 - $125.10 and closed at $124.73 ($123.26).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $124.55; bearish below $124.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold edged higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies and oil price inched up above $125 a barrel in NYMEX.
International spot gold traded in the range $922.35 - $932.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $929.90 ($928.70).
Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.
Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.
However worries remained as two more US banks were shut down by federal regulators late Friday, bringing the number of bank failures so far this year to seven.
Dollar had drifted lower on Friday after a report from Commerce Department showed US new home sales in US fell 0.6 % in June, the second straight monthly decline, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000.
Among US data released on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 34,000 to stand at 406,000 for the week ended July 19, according to the US Labor Department.
The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% fall in US existing home sales in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million, the lowest level in 10 years.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.
Also according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight on Tuesday, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Recovery expected above $936.60. Resistances are $943, $950, $959; supports $923, $915, $908.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $923.10 – $933.00 and closed at $931.20 ($929.60).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 932; bearish below $ 927
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $922.35 - $932.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $929.90 ($928.70).
Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.
Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.
However worries remained as two more US banks were shut down by federal regulators late Friday, bringing the number of bank failures so far this year to seven.
Dollar had drifted lower on Friday after a report from Commerce Department showed US new home sales in US fell 0.6 % in June, the second straight monthly decline, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000.
Among US data released on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 34,000 to stand at 406,000 for the week ended July 19, according to the US Labor Department.
The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% fall in US existing home sales in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million, the lowest level in 10 years.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.
Also according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight on Tuesday, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Recovery expected above $936.60. Resistances are $943, $950, $959; supports $923, $915, $908.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $923.10 – $933.00 and closed at $931.20 ($929.60).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 932; bearish below $ 927
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The Bush administration projected the U.S. budget deficit will soar to a record of nearly half a trillion dollars in fiscal 2009 as a housing-led economic slowdown cuts into government revenues. The new report said the budget deficit would fall to $178 billion in 2010, and surpluses would emerge in 2012. However, the deficit projections did not include the full amount of funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan or costly tax law changes, and acknowledged it would be a "challenge" to reach surpluses in 2012. A prudent overseas investor will not buy into US government instruments. Precious metals will benefit as a result of the same.
The US financial crisis is spreading from subprime borrowers to wealthier consumers, with evidence mounting that more affluent people are failing to pay their mortgages and credit card balances. Growing concerns over the financial health of richer borrowers are prompting banks and card issuers to tighten lending practices in moves that could further dampen consumer confidence and spending. More positive news for gold, that is all I can say.
Lead, zinc and other base metals will remain firm on reduced Chinese production capacity and firm global demand. Nickel should bottom out soon. Long term investors should invest in Nickel as the risk to return ratio is in favour of the buyers.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0
200 day MA around $354 is the key support. Resistance is at 100 day MA around $378. Falls below $354 will result in $347 and $339.
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
(from insignia)
MCXARUN
9994500540
The US financial crisis is spreading from subprime borrowers to wealthier consumers, with evidence mounting that more affluent people are failing to pay their mortgages and credit card balances. Growing concerns over the financial health of richer borrowers are prompting banks and card issuers to tighten lending practices in moves that could further dampen consumer confidence and spending. More positive news for gold, that is all I can say.
Lead, zinc and other base metals will remain firm on reduced Chinese production capacity and firm global demand. Nickel should bottom out soon. Long term investors should invest in Nickel as the risk to return ratio is in favour of the buyers.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0
200 day MA around $354 is the key support. Resistance is at 100 day MA around $378. Falls below $354 will result in $347 and $339.
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
(from insignia)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
mcx gold
Gold -The unit sold off aggressively from the 976 high, taking out channel support at 954 as well as last week’s low near 951. Gold has since touched the June high support of 946. The break and close below the channel support turns our view neutral. The risks have turned toward further losses in the days ahead, with next support seen at 942. Stale longs may look to exit now, close to 955.Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12911 and below could see a test of 12748. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13351, a move above could see prices testing 13628.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12748-13628.
SELL GOLD @ 13156-180 SL 13260 TGT 13000-12940-12845-12680. MCX
A BREAK OF 12960 ADD SHORT FOR TGT 12860-12845-12680. MCX
REMEMBER EVE WEAK SAME AS YESTERDAY
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12748-13628.
SELL GOLD @ 13156-180 SL 13260 TGT 13000-12940-12845-12680. MCX
A BREAK OF 12960 ADD SHORT FOR TGT 12860-12845-12680. MCX
REMEMBER EVE WEAK SAME AS YESTERDAY
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold reversed gains yesterday and closed $20 lower as the dollar bounced back and oil price fell.
International spot gold traded in the range $975.95 - $942.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $945.00 ($965.30).
Dollar recovered on supportive comments from top officials - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
But according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
US Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of future economic activity, showed a decline of 0.1% in June. The result for May, which had been estimated to have risen 0.1%, was revised to a decline of 0.2%. The index has slipped 0.9 percent for the six months ending in June.
Oil price fell after worries that storms may disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of Mexico eased. According to latest reports, Tropical Storm Dolly is not expected to have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf.
A smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup Inc, the largest bank in US, last week had slightly eased worries about the US financial sector.
Weekly data from the US Labor Department showed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to 366,000 in the week ended July 12, but the four-week average of initial claims fell 4,500 to 376,500. Continuing claims fell to 3.12 million for the week ended July 5, down 81,000. The four-week average of continuing jobless claims increased by 16,500 to 3.14 million, the highest level since February 2004.
According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on last Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said last week that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.
The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
More correction expected below $948. Resistances are $959.10, $966.40, $972.00; Supports $936, $925, $912.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $976.30 – $944.30 and closed at $945.80 ($964.80).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 955.50; bearish below $ 950.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $975.95 - $942.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $945.00 ($965.30).
Dollar recovered on supportive comments from top officials - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
But according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
US Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of future economic activity, showed a decline of 0.1% in June. The result for May, which had been estimated to have risen 0.1%, was revised to a decline of 0.2%. The index has slipped 0.9 percent for the six months ending in June.
Oil price fell after worries that storms may disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of Mexico eased. According to latest reports, Tropical Storm Dolly is not expected to have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf.
A smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup Inc, the largest bank in US, last week had slightly eased worries about the US financial sector.
Weekly data from the US Labor Department showed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to 366,000 in the week ended July 12, but the four-week average of initial claims fell 4,500 to 376,500. Continuing claims fell to 3.12 million for the week ended July 5, down 81,000. The four-week average of continuing jobless claims increased by 16,500 to 3.14 million, the highest level since February 2004.
According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on last Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said last week that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.
The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
More correction expected below $948. Resistances are $959.10, $966.40, $972.00; Supports $936, $925, $912.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $976.30 – $944.30 and closed at $945.80 ($964.80).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 955.50; bearish below $ 950.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day sell only below 13025 S/L 13045 and T/p 12950-900/towards 12775 in coming days OR sell ard 13285-295 S/L 13300 and T/p 13245-210 upto 13160 (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13025/ 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 25325 towards 25000" ACHIEVED EXACTLY AS DAYS LOW=25000 book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500, for the day sell below 24950 S/L 25010 and T/p 24850/24725/ sustain close below towards 24300 & 23700 in coming days OR sell ard 25610-25 S/L 25650 and T/p 25500-425/ 25375 (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE LEVEL book profit on sell ard 5650-55/5530-10, for the day sell only below 5375 S/L 5405 and T/p 5340-5300/towards 5200-5150 in coming days OR sell ard 5588-92 S/L 5600 and T/p 5560-5500 THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON 17-7 "close below seen new down rally" (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5375/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 344 S/L 345.5 and T/p 341-40/upto 338.5 OR sell ard 352.4-352.6 S/L 353 and T/p 350.5/349, only sustain abv 353 trigger buy now (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 344/331.5-330.5/326/ 311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day sell only below 13025 S/L 13045 and T/p 12950-900/towards 12775 in coming days OR sell ard 13285-295 S/L 13300 and T/p 13245-210 upto 13160 (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13025/ 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 25325 towards 25000" ACHIEVED EXACTLY AS DAYS LOW=25000 book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500, for the day sell below 24950 S/L 25010 and T/p 24850/24725/ sustain close below towards 24300 & 23700 in coming days OR sell ard 25610-25 S/L 25650 and T/p 25500-425/ 25375 (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE LEVEL book profit on sell ard 5650-55/5530-10, for the day sell only below 5375 S/L 5405 and T/p 5340-5300/towards 5200-5150 in coming days OR sell ard 5588-92 S/L 5600 and T/p 5560-5500 THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON 17-7 "close below seen new down rally" (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5375/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 344 S/L 345.5 and T/p 341-40/upto 338.5 OR sell ard 352.4-352.6 S/L 353 and T/p 350.5/349, only sustain abv 353 trigger buy now (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 344/331.5-330.5/326/ 311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, July 18, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
book profit on sell below 13475, for the day sell only below 13325 S/L 13350 and T/p 13250 where good support seen/sustain below towards 13050 in coming days OR buy only abv 13585 S/L 13560 and T/p 13640-660/towards 13740. only close above 13765 seen new rally towards 14200-300 in coming days (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13240/12750/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell only below 26100 S/L 26200 and T/p 26000/25900/sustain below towards 25700-600 in coming days OR buy only abv 26700 S/L 26620 and T/p 26760-830/26920/towards 27125 where good resistance seen again (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day sell below 5750 & 5725 S/L 5780 and T/p 5680-50/close below seen new down rally OR sell ard 5960-70 S/L 5975 and T/p 5925-5890 upto 5850 (now crude need to close above 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5640/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 352/350, for the day sell below 345 S/L 346.5 and T/p 341-40 OR sell ard 353-353.5 S/L 354 and T/p 351.5 upto 348 (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/ 371/387.5/398 while close below 345.5/ 331.5-330.5/ 326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on sell below 13475, for the day sell only below 13325 S/L 13350 and T/p 13250 where good support seen/sustain below towards 13050 in coming days OR buy only abv 13585 S/L 13560 and T/p 13640-660/towards 13740. only close above 13765 seen new rally towards 14200-300 in coming days (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13240/12750/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell only below 26100 S/L 26200 and T/p 26000/25900/sustain below towards 25700-600 in coming days OR buy only abv 26700 S/L 26620 and T/p 26760-830/26920/towards 27125 where good resistance seen again (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day sell below 5750 & 5725 S/L 5780 and T/p 5680-50/close below seen new down rally OR sell ard 5960-70 S/L 5975 and T/p 5925-5890 upto 5850 (now crude need to close above 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5640/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 352/350, for the day sell below 345 S/L 346.5 and T/p 341-40 OR sell ard 353-353.5 S/L 354 and T/p 351.5 upto 348 (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/ 371/387.5/398 while close below 345.5/ 331.5-330.5/ 326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view calls
ZINC LIKELY TO TEST 72 - 69 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 76, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 91 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
NICKEL LIKELY TO TEST 860-50 UPTO 825 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 883, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 965-975 UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
NYMEX CRUDE OIL LIKELY TO TEST $ 129 TOWARDS $ 123 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 135 & $ 131, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 147.5 UPTREND AGAIN(AUG)
LEAD LIKELY TO TEST 62 - 60 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 66.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 90 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 856 & 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 909 & 936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.15 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.20 & 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.70 / 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
MCXARUN
9994500540
NICKEL LIKELY TO TEST 860-50 UPTO 825 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 883, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 965-975 UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
NYMEX CRUDE OIL LIKELY TO TEST $ 129 TOWARDS $ 123 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 135 & $ 131, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 147.5 UPTREND AGAIN(AUG)
LEAD LIKELY TO TEST 62 - 60 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 66.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 90 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 856 & 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 909 & 936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.15 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.20 & 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.70 / 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
MCXARUN
9994500540
zinc intraday
Zinc support at 79.40
17 July 2008 11:40:05
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -3.11%. Market has opened at 80.55 & made a low of 76.6 versus the day high of 81.35. The total volume for the day was at 13962 lots and the open interest was at 6683.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.90 and below could see a test of 73.85. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 80.65, a move above could see prices testing 83.35.
Trading Idea
TRADING RANGE IS 73.50-84.00.
BUY ZINC ABV 79.50 SL 78.80 TGT 80.60-81.40-83.20. MCX
IMP SUPPORT IS 79.40 LEVEL
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 11:40:05
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -3.11%. Market has opened at 80.55 & made a low of 76.6 versus the day high of 81.35. The total volume for the day was at 13962 lots and the open interest was at 6683.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.90 and below could see a test of 73.85. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 80.65, a move above could see prices testing 83.35.
Trading Idea
TRADING RANGE IS 73.50-84.00.
BUY ZINC ABV 79.50 SL 78.80 TGT 80.60-81.40-83.20. MCX
IMP SUPPORT IS 79.40 LEVEL
MCXARUN
9994500540
nickel intraday
Nickel sell at 895-900
17 July 2008 11:41:00
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -258 against the previous of -198 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 883 a kg after opening at Rs .902, and last traded at Rs 889.For today market is looking for the support at 879, a break below could see a test of 869 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 903, a move above could see prices testing 916.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 869.00-916.00.
SELL NICKEL @ 895-900 SL 906.50 TGT 888-882-876-860. MCX
ONLY ABV 912 LEVEL LOOK TO HAVE POSITIVE TREND ELSE WEAK
ONLY BELOW 920 LEVEL LOOK WEAK
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 11:41:00
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -258 against the previous of -198 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 883 a kg after opening at Rs .902, and last traded at Rs 889.For today market is looking for the support at 879, a break below could see a test of 869 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 903, a move above could see prices testing 916.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 869.00-916.00.
SELL NICKEL @ 895-900 SL 906.50 TGT 888-882-876-860. MCX
ONLY ABV 912 LEVEL LOOK TO HAVE POSITIVE TREND ELSE WEAK
ONLY BELOW 920 LEVEL LOOK WEAK
MCXARUN
9994500540
crude intraday
Crude bearish below 132
17 July 2008 11:38:25
Crude oil traded little changed near $135 a barrel in New York after falling almost 3 percent yesterday as U.S. inventories increased unexpectedly. Support for the crude at 5677 and below could see a test of 5543. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5993, a move above could see prices testing 6175.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 5543-6175.
SELL CRUDE @ 5800-5820 SL 5852 TGT 5762-5734-5690. MCX
CRUDE BELOW 132$ LOOK BEARISH ELSE 138-140 WILL BE THE RANGE
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 11:38:25
Crude oil traded little changed near $135 a barrel in New York after falling almost 3 percent yesterday as U.S. inventories increased unexpectedly. Support for the crude at 5677 and below could see a test of 5543. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5993, a move above could see prices testing 6175.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 5543-6175.
SELL CRUDE @ 5800-5820 SL 5852 TGT 5762-5734-5690. MCX
CRUDE BELOW 132$ LOOK BEARISH ELSE 138-140 WILL BE THE RANGE
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Copper support at 344.10
17 July 2008 11:39:11
The union leadership at the Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru has called off strike action threatened for today to allow for further talks with management on their grievances, mostly related to working conditions. Also Copper stock was 650mt against the previous of 325mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 345.6 a kg after opening at Rs 352.95, and last traded at Rs347.45.For today market is looking for the support at 344.10, a break below could see a test of 340.80 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 352.30, a move above could see prices testing 357.10.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-357.10
SELL COPPER @ 348-349 SL 352.20 TGT 346.80-345.60-344.20. MCX
AS STRIKE IS CALLED OFF COPPER CAN TAKE SUPPORT TILL SUPPORT TILL 337-338 LEVEL. MCX
STILL MARKET IS RANGING 350-360 LVL
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 11:39:11
The union leadership at the Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru has called off strike action threatened for today to allow for further talks with management on their grievances, mostly related to working conditions. Also Copper stock was 650mt against the previous of 325mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 345.6 a kg after opening at Rs 352.95, and last traded at Rs347.45.For today market is looking for the support at 344.10, a break below could see a test of 340.80 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 352.30, a move above could see prices testing 357.10.
Trading Ideas
TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-357.10
SELL COPPER @ 348-349 SL 352.20 TGT 346.80-345.60-344.20. MCX
AS STRIKE IS CALLED OFF COPPER CAN TAKE SUPPORT TILL SUPPORT TILL 337-338 LEVEL. MCX
STILL MARKET IS RANGING 350-360 LVL
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex crude intraday
Crude Outlook July 17, 2008
17 July 2008 12:38:18
Oil extended Tuesday’s sharp fall, making a combined loss of over $10 on closing basis in two days, the biggest two-day drop in more than 17 years. A surprise rise in US crude inventories, concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand and OPEC’s downward revision of world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009 affected oil.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $139.30 - $132.00, before settling at $135.10 a barrel.
US crude inventories rose 3 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ended July 11, according to the weekly inventory report by US Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee said Tuesday that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. According to a report to Congress submitted along with Bernanke's testimony, the Fed said that FOMC members were more uncomfortable about the inflation outlook at their June meeting than they had been at any point this year.
OPEC in its latest monthly report lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July, and had been hovering near the level supported by geopolitical tensions in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria and Iran. A five-day strike started on Monday by workers of Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras, which is expected to halt oil production of about 400,000 barrels a day, also supported oil price.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles last week, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $147.50. Resistances $149.70, $154.80, $160.00; supports $142.60, $139.80, $132.00.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.10 - $132.16 and closed at $134.60 ($138.74).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 134.58; bearish below 133.95
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 12:38:18
Oil extended Tuesday’s sharp fall, making a combined loss of over $10 on closing basis in two days, the biggest two-day drop in more than 17 years. A surprise rise in US crude inventories, concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand and OPEC’s downward revision of world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009 affected oil.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $139.30 - $132.00, before settling at $135.10 a barrel.
US crude inventories rose 3 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ended July 11, according to the weekly inventory report by US Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee said Tuesday that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. According to a report to Congress submitted along with Bernanke's testimony, the Fed said that FOMC members were more uncomfortable about the inflation outlook at their June meeting than they had been at any point this year.
OPEC in its latest monthly report lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July, and had been hovering near the level supported by geopolitical tensions in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria and Iran. A five-day strike started on Monday by workers of Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras, which is expected to halt oil production of about 400,000 barrels a day, also supported oil price.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles last week, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $147.50. Resistances $149.70, $154.80, $160.00; supports $142.60, $139.80, $132.00.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.10 - $132.16 and closed at $134.60 ($138.74).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 134.58; bearish below 133.95
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook July 17, 2008
17 July 2008 12:40:23
A better-than-expected industrial output data from the US and an unexpectedly large increase in US inflation helped the greenback to recover moderately.
According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell below its previous record low of 18 in June to a new record low of 16 in July, indicating a fall in builder confidence in the US market for newly built single-family homes, for the third consecutive month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said Tuesday that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.
The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).
Oil price continued the previous day’s sharp fall, making a combined loss of over $10 on closing basis in two days, the biggest two-day drop in more than 17 years. A surprise rise in US crude inventories, concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand and OPEC’s downward revision of world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009 affected oil.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
In economic data released last week, the US Labor Department said initial jobless claims in US fell by 58,000, the largest one-week decline in more than two years, to 346,000 for the week ended July 5. The four-week average of initial claims recorded a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week to 379,250. However, continuing claims rose by 91,000 to reach 3.2 million for the week ended June 28. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose, up 16,500 to 3.13 million, the highest since 2004.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $969.30. Resistances are $978, $988, $1002; Supports $955, $947, $940.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $982.30 – $958.90 and closed at $961.10 ($974.30).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 958.70; bearish below $ 953.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 12:40:23
A better-than-expected industrial output data from the US and an unexpectedly large increase in US inflation helped the greenback to recover moderately.
According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell below its previous record low of 18 in June to a new record low of 16 in July, indicating a fall in builder confidence in the US market for newly built single-family homes, for the third consecutive month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said Tuesday that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.
The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).
Oil price continued the previous day’s sharp fall, making a combined loss of over $10 on closing basis in two days, the biggest two-day drop in more than 17 years. A surprise rise in US crude inventories, concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand and OPEC’s downward revision of world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009 affected oil.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
In economic data released last week, the US Labor Department said initial jobless claims in US fell by 58,000, the largest one-week decline in more than two years, to 346,000 for the week ended July 5. The four-week average of initial claims recorded a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week to 379,250. However, continuing claims rose by 91,000 to reach 3.2 million for the week ended June 28. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose, up 16,500 to 3.13 million, the highest since 2004.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $969.30. Resistances are $978, $988, $1002; Supports $955, $947, $940.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $982.30 – $958.90 and closed at $961.10 ($974.30).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 958.70; bearish below $ 953.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
silver intraday
Silver trading range 25704-27016
17 July 2008 11:37:45
Silver has weakened back to the 18.78 area after it failed move above $19.00. The market will look to buy on dips towards 18.46 and likely liquidate only on a move below the May top of 18.34. The gold/silver ratio tried the 52.00 area before falling back to 51.25. Now support for the silver is seen at 25961 and below could see a test of 25704. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26617, a move above could see prices testing 27016.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 25704-27016.
BUY SILVER @ 26100-180 SL 25980 TGT 26350-26435-26570-26865. MCX
A BREAK OF 25840 WILL TAKE SUPPORT TILL 25200 LVL
ELSE MKT IS BULLISH TILL THE SAME HIGH.
MCXARUN
9994500540
17 July 2008 11:37:45
Silver has weakened back to the 18.78 area after it failed move above $19.00. The market will look to buy on dips towards 18.46 and likely liquidate only on a move below the May top of 18.34. The gold/silver ratio tried the 52.00 area before falling back to 51.25. Now support for the silver is seen at 25961 and below could see a test of 25704. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26617, a move above could see prices testing 27016.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 25704-27016.
BUY SILVER @ 26100-180 SL 25980 TGT 26350-26435-26570-26865. MCX
A BREAK OF 25840 WILL TAKE SUPPORT TILL 25200 LVL
ELSE MKT IS BULLISH TILL THE SAME HIGH.
MCXARUN
9994500540
gold intraday
Gold pulled back today for the first time in 5 days. We are still holding above the minor 955 and major 946 support points, and accordingly our bias remains bullish. The topside resistance is seen to be at 988 with the major target still holding at 1032. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 13250 and below could see a test of 13135. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13560, a move above could see prices testing 13755.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 13135-13755.
SELL GOLD BELOW 13160 SL 13235 TGT 13100-13080-13000. MCX
OR SELL ABOVE 13450 SL 13475 TGT 13400-13360-13280. MCX
IN SPOT 948-950 IS THE GOOD LEVEL FOR BUYING.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 13135-13755.
SELL GOLD BELOW 13160 SL 13235 TGT 13100-13080-13000. MCX
OR SELL ABOVE 13450 SL 13475 TGT 13400-13360-13280. MCX
IN SPOT 948-950 IS THE GOOD LEVEL FOR BUYING.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US dollar – crude oil - gold relationship is dictating the metals markets. Base metals fell as Chinese demand remains low before the Olympics. Unless physical demand for gold, silver or any other metal rises along with the rise in prices, there will always be fear of a correction or a slide from the highs. Investment demand can change overnight also. Gold, physical demand is virtually zero. Platinum has also fallen on lack of demand. The lagging effects of higher crude oil prices have now started showing their colours.
Some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are seeking to scale back their exposure to the US dollar in a sign of global concern about the currency. One big sovereign fund in the Gulf has cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80 per cent a year ago to less than 60 per cent, while China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings. Sovereign wealth funds have played a leading role in helping to recapitalise faltering US banks, but have lost money so far on such investments. Continuing market turbulence has further shaken their faith in US policy and policymakers. The current decline of the US dollar will have long term effects by way of declining share of the US dollar in global trade and financial services.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
$354 is the key support. Resistance $378. A fall below $354 will result in $347 and $339.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are seeking to scale back their exposure to the US dollar in a sign of global concern about the currency. One big sovereign fund in the Gulf has cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80 per cent a year ago to less than 60 per cent, while China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings. Sovereign wealth funds have played a leading role in helping to recapitalise faltering US banks, but have lost money so far on such investments. Continuing market turbulence has further shaken their faith in US policy and policymakers. The current decline of the US dollar will have long term effects by way of declining share of the US dollar in global trade and financial services.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
$354 is the key support. Resistance $378. A fall below $354 will result in $347 and $339.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Volatility in crude oil started to increase. Yesterday’s boom to bust of crude oil by $10 in less than ten minutes speaks for itself. In gold, silver and copper traders have gotten used to high volatility but crude oil is the new entrant. Managing volatility is the key. Stop losses are useless. Day traders need to buy at market price and sell at market price to limit losses. Bernanke and Bush did not say anything extra ordinary on the US economy. It’s only that traders and fund managers used the same book profits which resulted in a technical sell off. The trend for the US dollar is bearish. There is no doubt over the same. However if the outlook for the Eurozone economy turns cloudy (with continued fall in German consumer confidence and business sentiment), the greenback will benefit. The yen gained on expectations that the bank of Japan will raise interest rates.
Zinc pared most of its gains on doubts whether Chinese production cuts will have any impact on supplies. The current rise however will prevent traders from going too short at lower prices. The fear of a sharp rise will be in their mind. Fund managers invest only when anything is fundamentally bullish. The fundamental story for any commodity does not change overnight while the technical picture can change every hour. Zinc, it’s a fight between fundamental traders and technical traders. Crude oil has a lagging effect. Higher crude oil prices will slowdown the world. If the world slows down why should base metals rise?
We have the US inflation numbers today. At the moment it’s just a technical correction in gold, silver and crude oil. US weekly crude oil numbers will be the key. Crude oil traders will be hesitant to go short heavily as the Iranian risk premium is not over. We continue with a buy on dips strategy as long as key technical supports are holding. Gold August key support $956 and $942. Silver September key support $1848. Copper September resistance $379.10. As long as these prices are held/broken the upside/downside will be limited. As and when prices near the same it should be used to go long/short (as the case may be).
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Platinum needs to break $2055 to be in a bullish zone. Till it does not break $2055, there will be sellers.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Failure to break 1605 will result in a fall to 1542 and 1512.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Zinc pared most of its gains on doubts whether Chinese production cuts will have any impact on supplies. The current rise however will prevent traders from going too short at lower prices. The fear of a sharp rise will be in their mind. Fund managers invest only when anything is fundamentally bullish. The fundamental story for any commodity does not change overnight while the technical picture can change every hour. Zinc, it’s a fight between fundamental traders and technical traders. Crude oil has a lagging effect. Higher crude oil prices will slowdown the world. If the world slows down why should base metals rise?
We have the US inflation numbers today. At the moment it’s just a technical correction in gold, silver and crude oil. US weekly crude oil numbers will be the key. Crude oil traders will be hesitant to go short heavily as the Iranian risk premium is not over. We continue with a buy on dips strategy as long as key technical supports are holding. Gold August key support $956 and $942. Silver September key support $1848. Copper September resistance $379.10. As long as these prices are held/broken the upside/downside will be limited. As and when prices near the same it should be used to go long/short (as the case may be).
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Platinum needs to break $2055 to be in a bullish zone. Till it does not break $2055, there will be sellers.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Failure to break 1605 will result in a fall to 1542 and 1512.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, July 10, 2008
zinc intraday
Zinc buy above 80.60
10 July 2008 11:30:42
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 3.5%. Market has opened at 77.35 & made a low of 77.1 versus the day high of 80.3. The total volume for the day was at 8430 lots and the open interest was at 6449.Now support for the zinc is seen at 77.9 and below could see a test of 75.9. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 81.1, a move above could see prices testing 82.3.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 75.90-83.00.
• BUY ZINC ABV 80.60 SL 79.80 TGT 81.20-81.80-82.40. MCX
• SELL ZINC BELOW 79.00 SL 79.60 TGT 78.55-78.10-77.60. MCX
• A TRADE ABV 80.60 COULD JUMP TILL 82.50 ELSE WEAK
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:30:42
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 3.5%. Market has opened at 77.35 & made a low of 77.1 versus the day high of 80.3. The total volume for the day was at 8430 lots and the open interest was at 6449.Now support for the zinc is seen at 77.9 and below could see a test of 75.9. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 81.1, a move above could see prices testing 82.3.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 75.90-83.00.
• BUY ZINC ABV 80.60 SL 79.80 TGT 81.20-81.80-82.40. MCX
• SELL ZINC BELOW 79.00 SL 79.60 TGT 78.55-78.10-77.60. MCX
• A TRADE ABV 80.60 COULD JUMP TILL 82.50 ELSE WEAK
MCXARUN
nickel intraday
Sell nickel below 912
10 July 2008 11:31:29
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -138 against the previous of -12 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 896.5 a kg after opening at Rs .902, and last traded at Rs 932.5.For today market is looking for the support at 907, a break below could see a test of 882 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 947, a move above could see prices testing 961.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 882-961.
• BUY NICKEL @ 920-922 SL 912 TGT 926.50-932.50-938-945. MCX
• SELL NICKEL BELOW 912 SL 923 TGT 905-900-892-884. MCX
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:31:29
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -138 against the previous of -12 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 896.5 a kg after opening at Rs .902, and last traded at Rs 932.5.For today market is looking for the support at 907, a break below could see a test of 882 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 947, a move above could see prices testing 961.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 882-961.
• BUY NICKEL @ 920-922 SL 912 TGT 926.50-932.50-938-945. MCX
• SELL NICKEL BELOW 912 SL 923 TGT 905-900-892-884. MCX
MCXARUN
copper intraday
LME copper support at 349.50
10 July 2008 11:29:41
Yesterday the LME copper was 2150mt against the previous of 100mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 347 a kg after opening at Rs 353.55, and last traded at Rs355.95.For today market is looking for the support at 349.50, a break below could see a test of 342.90 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 359.80, a move above could see prices testing 363.60.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 343.00-364.00.
• BUY COPPER @ 350-352.40 SL 348.60 TGT 354.60-356.20-358. MCX
• SELL COPPER @ 358-360 SL 362.50 TGT 356.20-353.70-350.50. MCX
• ONCE MKT IS ABV 354 LVL THEN CAN SHOW 358 LVL.
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:29:41
Yesterday the LME copper was 2150mt against the previous of 100mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 347 a kg after opening at Rs 353.55, and last traded at Rs355.95.For today market is looking for the support at 349.50, a break below could see a test of 342.90 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 359.80, a move above could see prices testing 363.60.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 343.00-364.00.
• BUY COPPER @ 350-352.40 SL 348.60 TGT 354.60-356.20-358. MCX
• SELL COPPER @ 358-360 SL 362.50 TGT 356.20-353.70-350.50. MCX
• ONCE MKT IS ABV 354 LVL THEN CAN SHOW 358 LVL.
MCXARUN
mcx crude intraday
Crude oil support at 132$
10 July 2008 11:28:55
Crude oil rose in New York as traders purchased contracts after deciding that prices fell too far, too fast over the previous two days. Now support for the crude is seen at 5822 and below could see a test of 5759. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5957, a move above could see prices testing 6029.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 5759-6029.
• SELL CRUDE BELOW 5900 SL 5956 TGT 5862-5845-5822-5801. MCX
• BUY CRUDE ONLY ABV 5970 SL 5900 TGT 6020-6045-6080
• OVERALL TGT 5680 ON MCX
• IMP SUPPORT IS 132$ MCX. 5820-5680 SUP
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:28:55
Crude oil rose in New York as traders purchased contracts after deciding that prices fell too far, too fast over the previous two days. Now support for the crude is seen at 5822 and below could see a test of 5759. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5957, a move above could see prices testing 6029.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 5759-6029.
• SELL CRUDE BELOW 5900 SL 5956 TGT 5862-5845-5822-5801. MCX
• BUY CRUDE ONLY ABV 5970 SL 5900 TGT 6020-6045-6080
• OVERALL TGT 5680 ON MCX
• IMP SUPPORT IS 132$ MCX. 5820-5680 SUP
MCXARUN
mcx silver intraday
Silver weak till 24680-350
10 July 2008 11:28:00
Silver - After the indecision amongst traders yesterday, today’s gain may represent the resumption of a reversal, and at least lends credence to our suspicion of a short term base at the 100 day moving average. The gold-silver ratio has dropped in after market trading to 51.2. Now support for the silver is seen at 25149 and below could see a test of 24800. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 25704, a move above could see prices testing 25910.
Trading Ideas:
• TRADING RANGE IS 24800-25910.
• BUY SILVER @ 25200-260 SL 25080 TGT 25345-390-465-560-640.MCX
• SELL SILVER BELOW 25000 SL 25122 TGT 24860-780-690. MCX
• BELOW 25000 MKT IS WEAK TILL 24680-350 LEVEL.
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:28:00
Silver - After the indecision amongst traders yesterday, today’s gain may represent the resumption of a reversal, and at least lends credence to our suspicion of a short term base at the 100 day moving average. The gold-silver ratio has dropped in after market trading to 51.2. Now support for the silver is seen at 25149 and below could see a test of 24800. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 25704, a move above could see prices testing 25910.
Trading Ideas:
• TRADING RANGE IS 24800-25910.
• BUY SILVER @ 25200-260 SL 25080 TGT 25345-390-465-560-640.MCX
• SELL SILVER BELOW 25000 SL 25122 TGT 24860-780-690. MCX
• BELOW 25000 MKT IS WEAK TILL 24680-350 LEVEL.
MCXARUN
mcx gold intraday
Gold sell below 12845
10 July 2008 11:26:05
Gold opened at its low of 918.00/919.00 in New York. The metal steadily rose in the morning session, on the back of a declining USD. It peaked at 928.75/929.75 and then descended as oil lost its earlier gains, reaching support around 921.00. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12836 and below could see a test of 12730. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13011, a move above could see prices testing 13080.
Trading Ideas:
• TRADING RANGE IS 12730-13080.
• SELL GOLD BELOW 12845 SL 12923 TGT 12816-786-745-710. MCX
• BUY GOLD @ 12880-900 SL 12845 TGT 12945-980-13020-13086.MCX
• EVE DATA AND CRUDE MOVE IS IMPORTANT
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:26:05
Gold opened at its low of 918.00/919.00 in New York. The metal steadily rose in the morning session, on the back of a declining USD. It peaked at 928.75/929.75 and then descended as oil lost its earlier gains, reaching support around 921.00. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12836 and below could see a test of 12730. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13011, a move above could see prices testing 13080.
Trading Ideas:
• TRADING RANGE IS 12730-13080.
• SELL GOLD BELOW 12845 SL 12923 TGT 12816-786-745-710. MCX
• BUY GOLD @ 12880-900 SL 12845 TGT 12945-980-13020-13086.MCX
• EVE DATA AND CRUDE MOVE IS IMPORTANT
MCXARUN
nymex crude intraday
DGCX Crude Outlook July 10, 2008
10 July 2008 11:40:26
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains and closed relatively flat, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East with Iran’s test firing of missiles, and a sharp drop in US crude inventories.
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange had traded as high as $138.28, before settling at $135.62 a barrel.
US Crude supplies declined by 5.9 million barrels to 293.9 million for the week ended July 4, according to the latest release by US Energy Department on Wednesday.
The US Energy Information Administration lowered OPEC oil output forecast in 2008 to 32.32 million barrels per day, down 40,000 barrels per day from the agency's prior forecast in June.
The oil market had witnessed one of the deepest single-day falls in the recent times on Tuesday, as profit booking from the higher levels continued amid warning from G8 leaders.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States warned on Tuesday that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Iran reportedly submitted a response to offers of negotiation on its nuclear program. Iranian Government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elhma said on Sunday that Tehran was ready to negotiate on its programme but indicated it would not halt uranium enrichment.
Crude oil had recorded a fresh all-time high on July 3rd, underpinned by short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria and a drop in US crude inventories.
Comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.
Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.
At a meeting of oil producers and consumers, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.
But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early in June, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $146. Resistances $149.70, $154.80, $160.00; supports $142.60, $139.80, $132.00.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $138.20 - $135.40 and closed at $136.05 ($136.04).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 136.65; bearish below 136.10
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:40:26
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains and closed relatively flat, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East with Iran’s test firing of missiles, and a sharp drop in US crude inventories.
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange had traded as high as $138.28, before settling at $135.62 a barrel.
US Crude supplies declined by 5.9 million barrels to 293.9 million for the week ended July 4, according to the latest release by US Energy Department on Wednesday.
The US Energy Information Administration lowered OPEC oil output forecast in 2008 to 32.32 million barrels per day, down 40,000 barrels per day from the agency's prior forecast in June.
The oil market had witnessed one of the deepest single-day falls in the recent times on Tuesday, as profit booking from the higher levels continued amid warning from G8 leaders.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States warned on Tuesday that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Iran reportedly submitted a response to offers of negotiation on its nuclear program. Iranian Government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elhma said on Sunday that Tehran was ready to negotiate on its programme but indicated it would not halt uranium enrichment.
Crude oil had recorded a fresh all-time high on July 3rd, underpinned by short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria and a drop in US crude inventories.
Comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.
Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.
At a meeting of oil producers and consumers, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.
But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early in June, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $146. Resistances $149.70, $154.80, $160.00; supports $142.60, $139.80, $132.00.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $138.20 - $135.40 and closed at $136.05 ($136.04).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 136.65; bearish below 136.10
MCXARUN
comex gold outlook
DGCX Gold Outlook July 10, 2008
10 July 2008 11:47:24
Gold pared some of the early week losses and closed moderately higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies. Safe haven appeal of the bullion was also boosted by Iran’s test firing of missiles yesterday, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
International spot gold traded in the range $915.60 - $928.75 and last quoted at $927.75 ($919.50).
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Weak pending home sales data from the US released on Tuesday also weighed on the greenback. The National Association of Realtors' seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4.7% to 84.7 from an upwardly revised April reading of 88.9.
The dollar had firmed against major currencies on Tuesday, finding support in comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed may extend its lending facilities for troubled financial institutions into next year.
In a widely expected decision, the European Central Bank had raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent last week.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department. At the same time, US payrolls in June fell by 62,000. The payrolls have now declined in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000.
Indicating better-than-expected manufacturing activity in the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 50.2% in June from 49.6% in May.
The National Association of Realtors had reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said last week that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains amid volatility. In the G8 summit, leaders had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Expecting weakness below $925. Supports are $918, $906, $885; resistances $936, $947, $955.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $918.50 – $930.30 and closed at $928.70 ($922.40).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 929; bearish below $ 924
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:47:24
Gold pared some of the early week losses and closed moderately higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies. Safe haven appeal of the bullion was also boosted by Iran’s test firing of missiles yesterday, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
International spot gold traded in the range $915.60 - $928.75 and last quoted at $927.75 ($919.50).
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Weak pending home sales data from the US released on Tuesday also weighed on the greenback. The National Association of Realtors' seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4.7% to 84.7 from an upwardly revised April reading of 88.9.
The dollar had firmed against major currencies on Tuesday, finding support in comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed may extend its lending facilities for troubled financial institutions into next year.
In a widely expected decision, the European Central Bank had raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent last week.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department. At the same time, US payrolls in June fell by 62,000. The payrolls have now declined in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000.
Indicating better-than-expected manufacturing activity in the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 50.2% in June from 49.6% in May.
The National Association of Realtors had reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said last week that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains amid volatility. In the G8 summit, leaders had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Expecting weakness below $925. Supports are $918, $906, $885; resistances $936, $947, $955.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $918.50 – $930.30 and closed at $928.70 ($922.40).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 929; bearish below $ 924
MCXARUN
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Base metals rose sharply. Lead and Zinc were the star performers on valued based buying and short covering. Copper fell but recovered a sharp pull back. Fund managers seem to have started investing in zinc and lead which if it continues could result in the resumption of a bull run. It’s too early to comment whether zinc and lead have bottomed out, but we need to watch until next week to get a clear picture. South Korea plans to triple its base metal reserve stockpiles to ease tight domestic supply as manufacturers struggle to secure raw materials due to soaring commodity prices. South Korea plans to raise reserve stockpiles on 12 key products, including copper, aluminium and nickel, from 19 to 60 days worth of supply. It will also expand stockpiles to cover 10 more materials. If other countries follow South Korea then base metals will zoom in 2009 and zinc, lead and Nickel, the worst performers so far this year, should be worth investing in the long term.
Japan should start a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) with about $33 billion in assets, using interest earned on its $1 trillion of foreign reserves, said Takatoshi Ito, a member of a government advisory committee. The fund would invest in higher-yielding assets overseas including equities. It needs to be set up ``as soon as possible'' to avoid exchange-rate fluctuations that may hurt the nation's reserves, he added. Forget hedge funds and focus on what the SWF’s are doing. SWF investment could be for strategic purposes which over the coming years (after 2010) may lead to protectionism. Positive news for gold.
Financial Technologies India on Wednesday unveiled plans to open a new commodity derivatives exchange in Singapore by early next year. Financial Technologies, which already operates commodities exchanges, founded India’s Multi Commodities Exchange and is a co-owner of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange. The company said its new venture, to be called the Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), would provide a platform for futures and options trading on precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural commodities, currency pairs, carbon credits and commodity indices. More commodity exchanges in the world imply higher commodity prices in the long term. This is simple logic. Long term investors should stay invested in commodities.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Needs to hold $1913 to be in bullish zone and target $2055+
MCXARUN
Japan should start a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) with about $33 billion in assets, using interest earned on its $1 trillion of foreign reserves, said Takatoshi Ito, a member of a government advisory committee. The fund would invest in higher-yielding assets overseas including equities. It needs to be set up ``as soon as possible'' to avoid exchange-rate fluctuations that may hurt the nation's reserves, he added. Forget hedge funds and focus on what the SWF’s are doing. SWF investment could be for strategic purposes which over the coming years (after 2010) may lead to protectionism. Positive news for gold.
Financial Technologies India on Wednesday unveiled plans to open a new commodity derivatives exchange in Singapore by early next year. Financial Technologies, which already operates commodities exchanges, founded India’s Multi Commodities Exchange and is a co-owner of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange. The company said its new venture, to be called the Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), would provide a platform for futures and options trading on precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural commodities, currency pairs, carbon credits and commodity indices. More commodity exchanges in the world imply higher commodity prices in the long term. This is simple logic. Long term investors should stay invested in commodities.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Needs to hold $1913 to be in bullish zone and target $2055+
MCXARUN
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
zinc intraday
Zinc could jump till 82.50
09 July 2008 11:56:37
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.59%. Market has opened at 79.25 & made a low of 76.35 versus the day high of 79.85. The total volume for the day was at 7795 lots and the open interest was at 6956.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.75 and below could see a test of 74.3. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 79.25, a move above could see prices testing 81.3.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 74.30-81.30.
• BUY ZINC @ 76.50 SL 75.90 TGT 77.20-78.50. MCX
• SELL ZINC BELOW 79.00 SL 79.60 TGT 78.55-78.10-77.60. MCX
• A TRADE ABV 80.60 COULD JUMP TILL 82.50 ELSE WEAK
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:56:37
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.59%. Market has opened at 79.25 & made a low of 76.35 versus the day high of 79.85. The total volume for the day was at 7795 lots and the open interest was at 6956.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.75 and below could see a test of 74.3. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 79.25, a move above could see prices testing 81.3.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 74.30-81.30.
• BUY ZINC @ 76.50 SL 75.90 TGT 77.20-78.50. MCX
• SELL ZINC BELOW 79.00 SL 79.60 TGT 78.55-78.10-77.60. MCX
• A TRADE ABV 80.60 COULD JUMP TILL 82.50 ELSE WEAK
MCXARUN
nickel intraday
LME Nickle trading range is 884-925
09 July 2008 12:05:10
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -12 against the previous of -48 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 896 a kg after opening at Rs .912, and last traded at Rs 901.For today market is looking for the support at 892.5, a break below could see a test of 884 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 913, a move above could see prices testing 925.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 884-925.
• SELL NICKLE @ 912-916 SL 923.60 TGT 905-900-892-884. MCX
• SELL NICKEL BELOW 900 SL 912.50 TGT 892-885-880-873.50. MCX
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 12:05:10
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -12 against the previous of -48 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 896 a kg after opening at Rs .912, and last traded at Rs 901.For today market is looking for the support at 892.5, a break below could see a test of 884 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 913, a move above could see prices testing 925.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 884-925.
• SELL NICKLE @ 912-916 SL 923.60 TGT 905-900-892-884. MCX
• SELL NICKEL BELOW 900 SL 912.50 TGT 892-885-880-873.50. MCX
MCXARUN
copper intraday
LME Copper trading range 340.80-374.70
09 July 2008 11:53:53
Yesterday the LME copper was 100mt against the previous of -500mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 351.55 a kg after opening at Rs 367, and last traded at Rs353.05.For today market is looking for the support at 346.9, a break below could see a test of 340.75 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 363.85, a move above could see prices testing 374.65.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-374.70.
• BUY COPPER @ 351-353 Sl 349.60 TGT 354.60-356.20-358. MCX
• SELL COPPER @ 358-360 SL 362.50 TGT 356.20-353.70-350.50. MCX
• ONCE MKT IS ABV 354 LVL THAN CAN SHOW 358 LVL.
• IMP SUPPORT IS 132$ MCX. 5820-5680 SUP
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:53:53
Yesterday the LME copper was 100mt against the previous of -500mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 351.55 a kg after opening at Rs 367, and last traded at Rs353.05.For today market is looking for the support at 346.9, a break below could see a test of 340.75 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 363.85, a move above could see prices testing 374.65.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-374.70.
• BUY COPPER @ 351-353 Sl 349.60 TGT 354.60-356.20-358. MCX
• SELL COPPER @ 358-360 SL 362.50 TGT 356.20-353.70-350.50. MCX
• ONCE MKT IS ABV 354 LVL THAN CAN SHOW 358 LVL.
• IMP SUPPORT IS 132$ MCX. 5820-5680 SUP
MCXARUN
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day sell only below 12760-750 S/L 12785 and T/p 12700/upto 12600 OR sell ard 13085-95 S/L 13100 and T/p 13025-13000/upto 12925 (any time close above 13100/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 24975 S/L 25050 and T/p 24880/775-725/24600 OR buy only abv 25425 S/L 25350 and T/p 25525-600/towards 25775-825/uprally(any time close below 24340/23525/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26150/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. for the day sell below 5840 S/L 5865 and T/p 5400-5770/ towards 5710/ 5635 OR sell ard 6062-70 S/L 6075 and T/p 6015-5975 upto 5930, only abv 6180/6220 & 6300 uprally again (now crude need to close above 6220/6300 for bullish rally while close below 5845/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 366.5/364, for the day sell below 351 S/L 352.7 and T/p 349-347/towards 343 OR sell ard 361.8-362.5 S/L 363 and T/p 360-358/ upto 356 (upside strong rally only on close above 371/387.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
for the day sell only below 12760-750 S/L 12785 and T/p 12700/upto 12600 OR sell ard 13085-95 S/L 13100 and T/p 13025-13000/upto 12925 (any time close above 13100/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 24975 S/L 25050 and T/p 24880/775-725/24600 OR buy only abv 25425 S/L 25350 and T/p 25525-600/towards 25775-825/uprally(any time close below 24340/23525/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26150/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. for the day sell below 5840 S/L 5865 and T/p 5400-5770/ towards 5710/ 5635 OR sell ard 6062-70 S/L 6075 and T/p 6015-5975 upto 5930, only abv 6180/6220 & 6300 uprally again (now crude need to close above 6220/6300 for bullish rally while close below 5845/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 366.5/364, for the day sell below 351 S/L 352.7 and T/p 349-347/towards 343 OR sell ard 361.8-362.5 S/L 363 and T/p 360-358/ upto 356 (upside strong rally only on close above 371/387.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
crude intraday
Crude inventory to be low
09 July 2008 11:52:03
Crude oil traded near a two-week low in New York after falling the most in three months yesterday as Iran downplayed the possibility of a war and the dollar rose, limiting the appeal of commodities. Now support for the crude is seen at 5775 and below could see a test of 5643. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 6108, a move above could see prices testing 6309.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 5643-6309.
• SELL CRUDE BELOW 5892 SL ABV 5922 TGT 5868-5853-5835. MCX
• TODAY INVENTORY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER SO A JUMP TILL 6050-6100 IS GOOD TO HAVE SHORT LEVEL.
• OVERALL TGT 5680 ON MCX
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:52:03
Crude oil traded near a two-week low in New York after falling the most in three months yesterday as Iran downplayed the possibility of a war and the dollar rose, limiting the appeal of commodities. Now support for the crude is seen at 5775 and below could see a test of 5643. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 6108, a move above could see prices testing 6309.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 5643-6309.
• SELL CRUDE BELOW 5892 SL ABV 5922 TGT 5868-5853-5835. MCX
• TODAY INVENTORY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER SO A JUMP TILL 6050-6100 IS GOOD TO HAVE SHORT LEVEL.
• OVERALL TGT 5680 ON MCX
MCXARUN
silver intraday
Silver weak till 24680-350
09 July 2008 11:50:21
Silver opened at 1754/1757 in New York. After a short rally, a recovering USD pulled the metal down to its low of 1747/1750. Silver bounced back quickly as the dollar reversed its direction and started to decline. Silver reached a high of 1790/1793 before closing at 1786/1789. Now support for the silver is seen at 24781 and below could see a test of 24413. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 25466, a move above could see prices testing 25783.
Trading Ideas:
• TRADING RANGE IS 24413-25783.
• SELL SILVER @ 25500-580 SL 25735 TGT 25365-270-122-25000. MCX
• BELOW 25000 MKT IS WEAK TILL 24680-350 LEVEL.
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:50:21
Silver opened at 1754/1757 in New York. After a short rally, a recovering USD pulled the metal down to its low of 1747/1750. Silver bounced back quickly as the dollar reversed its direction and started to decline. Silver reached a high of 1790/1793 before closing at 1786/1789. Now support for the silver is seen at 24781 and below could see a test of 24413. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 25466, a move above could see prices testing 25783.
Trading Ideas:
• TRADING RANGE IS 24413-25783.
• SELL SILVER @ 25500-580 SL 25735 TGT 25365-270-122-25000. MCX
• BELOW 25000 MKT IS WEAK TILL 24680-350 LEVEL.
MCXARUN
gold intraday
Gold suppot at 903$
09 July 2008 11:49:17
Gold’s continued decline confirms our short term bearish trend reversal pattern as the metal breached (but did not close under) its 100-day moving average, a level that continues to provide short term support. The repeated testing of this level makes us a bit concerned about gold’s ability to hold its own in the short term. Should it break through the 917.30 mark with conviction, we may se a return to $880 in the near future. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12743 and below could see a test of 12612. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13033, a move above could see prices testing 13192.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12612-13192.
SELL GOLD @ 12870-900 SL 12955 TGT 12830-786-745-710.
MCX IMP IS 912$ BELOW THT 903$ IS SUPPORT
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:49:17
Gold’s continued decline confirms our short term bearish trend reversal pattern as the metal breached (but did not close under) its 100-day moving average, a level that continues to provide short term support. The repeated testing of this level makes us a bit concerned about gold’s ability to hold its own in the short term. Should it break through the 917.30 mark with conviction, we may se a return to $880 in the near future. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12743 and below could see a test of 12612. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13033, a move above could see prices testing 13192.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12612-13192.
SELL GOLD @ 12870-900 SL 12955 TGT 12830-786-745-710.
MCX IMP IS 912$ BELOW THT 903$ IS SUPPORT
MCXARUN
Friday, July 4, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
as US market remain closed on Independence Day Holiday, so trading range seen between 13000 - 13275. for the day buy only abv 13250 & 13275 S/L 13220 and T/p 13300-330/ sustain abv 13330 towards 13500 in coming days OR sell only below 12950 S/L 12975 and T/p 12895-900/12835/ 12790 where strong support seen again (any time close above 13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/ 11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 24975/25925, trading range seen between 25300 - 26150, for the day buy only abv 26100 & 26150 S/L 26020 and T/p 26300-500/ towards 26800 in coming days OR buy ard 25330-40 S/L 25300 and T/p 25425-25550 (any time close below 24340/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26150/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy above 5945/6120/ 6150/6220, for the day buy only abv 6300 S/L 6280 and T/p 6330-50/upto 6380 OR buy ard 6060-62 S/L 6050 and T/p 6150-125/upto 6185, anytime sustain below 5990 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6215 for bullish rally while close below 5990/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL. for the day buy ard 368.5-369 S/L 368 and T/p 372-374.5 OR sell ard 384-384.5 S/L 385 and T/p 382-81/379 (upside strong rally only on close above 387.5/398 while close below 361/351.5/339/ 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
as US market remain closed on Independence Day Holiday, so trading range seen between 13000 - 13275. for the day buy only abv 13250 & 13275 S/L 13220 and T/p 13300-330/ sustain abv 13330 towards 13500 in coming days OR sell only below 12950 S/L 12975 and T/p 12895-900/12835/ 12790 where strong support seen again (any time close above 13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/ 11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 24975/25925, trading range seen between 25300 - 26150, for the day buy only abv 26100 & 26150 S/L 26020 and T/p 26300-500/ towards 26800 in coming days OR buy ard 25330-40 S/L 25300 and T/p 25425-25550 (any time close below 24340/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26150/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy above 5945/6120/ 6150/6220, for the day buy only abv 6300 S/L 6280 and T/p 6330-50/upto 6380 OR buy ard 6060-62 S/L 6050 and T/p 6150-125/upto 6185, anytime sustain below 5990 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6215 for bullish rally while close below 5990/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL. for the day buy ard 368.5-369 S/L 368 and T/p 372-374.5 OR sell ard 384-384.5 S/L 385 and T/p 382-81/379 (upside strong rally only on close above 387.5/398 while close below 361/351.5/339/ 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
zinc intraday
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -5.9%. Market has opened at 81.5 & made a low of 77.25 versus the day high of 82.35. The total volume for the day was at 10995 lots and the open interest was at 7299.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.60 and below could see a test of 73.85. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 80.70, a move above could see prices testing 84.10.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 73.00-83.00.
• YESTERDAY ZINC FALL AS PER OUR EXPECTATION
• BUY ZINC ABV 78 SL 76.80 TGT 79.20-80-80.60. MCX
• A CLOSE ABV 80.60 WILL BRING AGAIN THE LEVEL TILL 85.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 73.00-83.00.
• YESTERDAY ZINC FALL AS PER OUR EXPECTATION
• BUY ZINC ABV 78 SL 76.80 TGT 79.20-80-80.60. MCX
• A CLOSE ABV 80.60 WILL BRING AGAIN THE LEVEL TILL 85.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
nickel intraday
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 198 against the previous of 168 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 905 a kg after opening at Rs .938, and last traded at Rs 913.For today market is looking for the support at 898, a break below could see a test of 883 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 935, a move above could see prices testing 956.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 883-956.
• TRADING RANGE IS 883-956.
• AS TOLD YESTERDAY NICKEL BELOW 936 WILL TOUCH 908 SAME HAPPENED.
• FOR TODAY BUY NICKEL ABV 915 SL 908 TGT 921-926-932. MCX
• SELL NICKLE @ 945-950 LS 962.50 TGT 936-931.20-926.80-920. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 883-956.
• TRADING RANGE IS 883-956.
• AS TOLD YESTERDAY NICKEL BELOW 936 WILL TOUCH 908 SAME HAPPENED.
• FOR TODAY BUY NICKEL ABV 915 SL 908 TGT 921-926-932. MCX
• SELL NICKLE @ 945-950 LS 962.50 TGT 936-931.20-926.80-920. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Yesterday the LME copper was 25mt against the previous of 125mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 374.3 a kg after opening at Rs 382.9, and last traded at Rs375.35.For today market is looking for the support at 371.30, a break below could see a test of 367.20 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 382.10, a move above could see prices testing 389.60.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 367.20-389.60
• COPPER IMP SUP IS AT 372.
• BUY COPPER @ 372-373.50 SL 370 TGT 375.50-378.80-380.20. MCX
• ONLY A BREAK OF 370 CAN BRING SELLING PRESSURE TILL 364.80. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 367.20-389.60
• COPPER IMP SUP IS AT 372.
• BUY COPPER @ 372-373.50 SL 370 TGT 375.50-378.80-380.20. MCX
• ONLY A BREAK OF 370 CAN BRING SELLING PRESSURE TILL 364.80. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
CRUDE intraday
Crude oil was little changed in New York after rising to a record yesterday as investors purchased commodities as an alternative to flagging equities markets. Now support for the crude is seen at 6177 and below could see a test of 6110. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 6305, a move above could see prices testing 6366.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 6110-6366.
• SELL CRUDE @ 6245-6260 SL 6300 TGT 6220-6190-6145-6080.. MCX
• IMP IS 140$ IN INTERNATIONAL.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 6110-6366.
• SELL CRUDE @ 6245-6260 SL 6300 TGT 6220-6190-6145-6080.. MCX
• IMP IS 140$ IN INTERNATIONAL.
MCXARUN
9994500540
silver intraday
Silver opened at 1840/1843 in New York. The metal followed gold and plunged on the back of a weaker Euro. Prices reached a low of 1800/1803 but quickly rallied as oil strengthened, climbing higher most of the morning. Silver slipped near noon as the Euro continued to weaken, but received support around 1826/1829 where it range traded and finally closed. Now support for the silver is seen at 25375 and below could see a test of 25024. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26114, a move above could see prices testing 26502.
Trading Ideas:
• BUY SILVER SEPT @ 25650-700 SL 25560 TGT 25812-880-980. MCX
• SELL SILVER BELOW 24460 SL 24570 TGT 24345-270-24180-24080. MCX
• BELOW 24000 IMP SUPPORT IS AT 23650-480. MCX
• TRADING RANGE IS 25024-26502.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas:
• BUY SILVER SEPT @ 25650-700 SL 25560 TGT 25812-880-980. MCX
• SELL SILVER BELOW 24460 SL 24570 TGT 24345-270-24180-24080. MCX
• BELOW 24000 IMP SUPPORT IS AT 23650-480. MCX
• TRADING RANGE IS 25024-26502.
MCXARUN
9994500540
gold intraday
Gold opened in New York at its high of 944.00/945.00. The dollar rallied on the back of more dovish than expected comments by ECB President Trichet, causing gold to plummet. Prices rallied slightly as oil recovered, but the rally was short lived with the metal spending the rest of the session ticking lower, finally closing at 932.00/933.00. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12948 and below could see a test of 12843. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13213, a move above could see prices testing 13373.
Trading Ideas:
• BUY GOLD @ 13050-13060 SL BELOW 12990 TGT 13090-13128-13156-13180. MCX
• SELL GOLD BELOW 12980 SL 13080 TGT 12925-880-835-760. MCX
• US MARKET CLOSED SO MKT WILL BE EYE CRUDE FOR CLUE AND TRADING FLAT TO NEGATIVE.
• TRADING RANGE IS 12843-13373.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas:
• BUY GOLD @ 13050-13060 SL BELOW 12990 TGT 13090-13128-13156-13180. MCX
• SELL GOLD BELOW 12980 SL 13080 TGT 12925-880-835-760. MCX
• US MARKET CLOSED SO MKT WILL BE EYE CRUDE FOR CLUE AND TRADING FLAT TO NEGATIVE.
• TRADING RANGE IS 12843-13373.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, July 3, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
THIS WAS OUR WORDS "close abv 13050 towards 13300 in coming days" AND SHARP RALLY SEEN ABOVE 13050. we book profit on buy abv 12375/12640/12900/13000-25, for the day buy only abv 13250 S/L 13220 and T/p 13300-330/sustain abv towards 13500 OR buy ard 12960-65 S/L 12950 and T/p 13020 upto 13080, as long support of 13000/12830 & 12760 uprally likely to continue (any time close above 13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
"US market will remain close on Friday on US Independence Day Holiday" book profit on buy abv 24975, for the day buy only abv 25925 S/L 25850 and T/p 26000/26150/towards 26500-800 in coming days OR buy ard 25330-40 S/L 25300 and T/p 25425-25550 (any time close below 24340/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25925/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "as long support of 6040 & 5990 uptrend likely to continue" AND PRICE TURN EXACTLY FROM LOW=6050. book profit on buy above 5945/6120/6150, for the day buy only abv 6220 S/L 6195 and T/p 6250-70 upto 6300 OR buy ard 6000-2 S/L 5990 and T/p 6040 upto 6100, anytime sustain below 5990 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6215 for bullish rally while close below 5990/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY abv 374 look towards 380/383" ACHIEVED. book profit on buy abv 374, for the day buy only abv 388 S/L 386 and T/p 390-92/395/398, close abv 398 seen new uprally OR buy ard 375-375.2 S/L 374 and T/p 378.5/380.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 387.5/ 398 while close below 361/351.5/339/ 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
THIS WAS OUR WORDS "close abv 13050 towards 13300 in coming days" AND SHARP RALLY SEEN ABOVE 13050. we book profit on buy abv 12375/12640/12900/13000-25, for the day buy only abv 13250 S/L 13220 and T/p 13300-330/sustain abv towards 13500 OR buy ard 12960-65 S/L 12950 and T/p 13020 upto 13080, as long support of 13000/12830 & 12760 uprally likely to continue (any time close above 13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
"US market will remain close on Friday on US Independence Day Holiday" book profit on buy abv 24975, for the day buy only abv 25925 S/L 25850 and T/p 26000/26150/towards 26500-800 in coming days OR buy ard 25330-40 S/L 25300 and T/p 25425-25550 (any time close below 24340/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25925/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "as long support of 6040 & 5990 uptrend likely to continue" AND PRICE TURN EXACTLY FROM LOW=6050. book profit on buy above 5945/6120/6150, for the day buy only abv 6220 S/L 6195 and T/p 6250-70 upto 6300 OR buy ard 6000-2 S/L 5990 and T/p 6040 upto 6100, anytime sustain below 5990 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6215 for bullish rally while close below 5990/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY abv 374 look towards 380/383" ACHIEVED. book profit on buy abv 374, for the day buy only abv 388 S/L 386 and T/p 390-92/395/398, close abv 398 seen new uprally OR buy ard 375-375.2 S/L 374 and T/p 378.5/380.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 387.5/ 398 while close below 361/351.5/339/ 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view calls
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 72 - 70 UPTO 68 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 74.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 85 SOME UPTREND
AGAIN
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 80.9 - 79.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 86/87.5 SOME UPTREND AGAIN
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 875-80 UPTO 860 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 920-915, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 990 & 1085 UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 72 - 70 UPTO 68 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 74.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 85 SOME UPTREND
AGAIN
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 80.9 - 79.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 86/87.5 SOME UPTREND AGAIN
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 875-80 UPTO 860 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 920-915, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 990 & 1085 UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s more of a US dollar depreciation story and interest rates for metals and energies than anything else. As long as US dollar continues to fall, crude oil will remain firm and gold will find investment demand on dips. European central bank will likely raise interest rates by a quarter today and will signal on more inflation controlling measures to come in the future. This can result in euro/usd breaking the 1.60 mark today. Unless the US June payrolls comes in positive we expect the US dollar to trade with a weaker bias for the rest of the week. However considering the present situation, only the brave hearted will short on the long weekend.
Copper has been gaining as more and more mine workers in Peru join the strike. Zinc, Nickel and lead have fallen instead of rising. Here the fundamental comes up. Zinc and Nickel are not bullish hence lack of investment interest and fall in prices. Further copper is considered as a hedge against a US dollar decline whereas zinc and lead are not. In 2008 there has been more or less a direct relationship between copper prices and the US dollar. Copper and other commodities are about investment demand in 2008. Fund manager always go long they never short sell. Copper and other commodities will be dictated by investment demand for the remaining six months of the year. LME Copper has a possibility of nearing $10,000 mark if it floats over $9,000 for two consecutive weeks.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $147.60
Bearish below $138. As long as crude oil holds $138 it will target $147 and $152.
PLATINUM OCTOBER
Intra day bullish over $2056 targeting $2096 and $2132.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
1552 price target achieved. Carbon credit targets 1600-1650 by next week as long as 1516 and 1488 holds. Volatility will rise with rise in prices.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper has been gaining as more and more mine workers in Peru join the strike. Zinc, Nickel and lead have fallen instead of rising. Here the fundamental comes up. Zinc and Nickel are not bullish hence lack of investment interest and fall in prices. Further copper is considered as a hedge against a US dollar decline whereas zinc and lead are not. In 2008 there has been more or less a direct relationship between copper prices and the US dollar. Copper and other commodities are about investment demand in 2008. Fund manager always go long they never short sell. Copper and other commodities will be dictated by investment demand for the remaining six months of the year. LME Copper has a possibility of nearing $10,000 mark if it floats over $9,000 for two consecutive weeks.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $147.60
Bearish below $138. As long as crude oil holds $138 it will target $147 and $152.
PLATINUM OCTOBER
Intra day bullish over $2056 targeting $2096 and $2132.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
1552 price target achieved. Carbon credit targets 1600-1650 by next week as long as 1516 and 1488 holds. Volatility will rise with rise in prices.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
zinc intraday
Zinc resistance could be 85
02 July 2008 10:54:27
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 0%. Market has opened at 84 & made a low of 83.1 versus the day high of 85.15. The total volume for the day was at 7453 lots and the open interest was at 5319.Now support for the zinc is seen at 82.95 and below could see a test of 82.
Resistance is now likely to be seen at 85, a move above could see prices testing 86.1.
• TRADING RANGE IS 82.00-87.00.
• BUY ZINC @ 82-82.60 SL 81.40 TGT 83.40-84.20-85.50. MCX
• A BREAK OF 85.70 WILL RALLY TILL 88.60-89 LEVEL SOON.
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 July 2008 10:54:27
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 0%. Market has opened at 84 & made a low of 83.1 versus the day high of 85.15. The total volume for the day was at 7453 lots and the open interest was at 5319.Now support for the zinc is seen at 82.95 and below could see a test of 82.
Resistance is now likely to be seen at 85, a move above could see prices testing 86.1.
• TRADING RANGE IS 82.00-87.00.
• BUY ZINC @ 82-82.60 SL 81.40 TGT 83.40-84.20-85.50. MCX
• A BREAK OF 85.70 WILL RALLY TILL 88.60-89 LEVEL SOON.
MCXARUN
9994500540
nickel intraday
Nickel market is looking for support at 936.5
02 July 2008 10:55:56
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 156 against the previous of 54 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 943 a kg after opening at Rs .960, and last traded at Rs 949.
For today market is looking for the support at 936.5, a break below could see a test of 924 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 968, a move above could see prices testing 987.
• TRADING RANGE IS 924-987.
• SELL NICKEL @ 953-956 SL ABV 962.40 TGT 947-944.60-941.20-936. MCX
• ADD MORE BELOW 936 TGT 922-916-908. MCX
• IMP IS 936 BELOW THIS 922-916 IS SUP. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 July 2008 10:55:56
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 156 against the previous of 54 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 943 a kg after opening at Rs .960, and last traded at Rs 949.
For today market is looking for the support at 936.5, a break below could see a test of 924 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 968, a move above could see prices testing 987.
• TRADING RANGE IS 924-987.
• SELL NICKEL @ 953-956 SL ABV 962.40 TGT 947-944.60-941.20-936. MCX
• ADD MORE BELOW 936 TGT 922-916-908. MCX
• IMP IS 936 BELOW THIS 922-916 IS SUP. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Today expect copper support at 367.30
02 July 2008 10:52:38
Yesterday the LME copper was -250mt against the previous of -300mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 365.2 a kg after opening at Rs 365.8, and last traded at Rs372.5.
For today market is looking for the support at 367.30, a break below could see a test of 362.20 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 375.5, a move above could see prices testing 378.6.
• TRADING RANGE IS 362.00-380.00.
• BUY COPPER @ 368-369 SL BELOW 366 TGT 370.40-371.60-373-375.40. MCX
• STRICK NEWS IS IMP SO BE ALERT AND TRADE
• COPPER IMP SUP IS AT 367.50.
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 July 2008 10:52:38
Yesterday the LME copper was -250mt against the previous of -300mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 365.2 a kg after opening at Rs 365.8, and last traded at Rs372.5.
For today market is looking for the support at 367.30, a break below could see a test of 362.20 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 375.5, a move above could see prices testing 378.6.
• TRADING RANGE IS 362.00-380.00.
• BUY COPPER @ 368-369 SL BELOW 366 TGT 370.40-371.60-373-375.40. MCX
• STRICK NEWS IS IMP SO BE ALERT AND TRADE
• COPPER IMP SUP IS AT 367.50.
MCXARUN
9994500540
crude intraday
Crude trading range: 5964-6304
02 July 2008 10:50:32
Crude oil rose for a second day in New York to near a record after the International Energy Agency said supplies may not keep up with demand. Now support for the crude is seen at 6056 and below could see a test of 5964. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 6226, a move above could see prices testing 6304.
• TRADING RANGE IS 5964-6304.
• SELL CRUDE BELOW 6120 SL 6156 TGT 6078- 6054-6030-6010.MCX
• ONLY BELOW 5970 TGT 5680. ELSE 6000-6180 IS THE TREND
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 July 2008 10:50:32
Crude oil rose for a second day in New York to near a record after the International Energy Agency said supplies may not keep up with demand. Now support for the crude is seen at 6056 and below could see a test of 5964. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 6226, a move above could see prices testing 6304.
• TRADING RANGE IS 5964-6304.
• SELL CRUDE BELOW 6120 SL 6156 TGT 6078- 6054-6030-6010.MCX
• ONLY BELOW 5970 TGT 5680. ELSE 6000-6180 IS THE TREND
MCXARUN
9994500540
silver intraday
Sell MCX Silver below 24380
02 July 2008 10:49:23
Silver opened in New York at its low of 1773/1777. The metal soared on the back of weaker equity markets and a faltering dollar. In addition, higher base metal prices pushed silver to its high of 1817/1821 where it closed for the day.
Now support for the silver is seen at 24969 and below could see a test of 24195. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26164, a move above could see prices testing 26585.
•TRADING RANGE IS 24195-26585.
•BUY SILVER SEPT ABV 25820 SL 25680 TGT 25880-940-990-26050. MCX
•SELL SILVER BELOW 24380 SL 24570 TGT 24270-24180-24080. MCX
•BELOW 24000 IMP SUPPORT IS AT 23650-480. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 July 2008 10:49:23
Silver opened in New York at its low of 1773/1777. The metal soared on the back of weaker equity markets and a faltering dollar. In addition, higher base metal prices pushed silver to its high of 1817/1821 where it closed for the day.
Now support for the silver is seen at 24969 and below could see a test of 24195. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26164, a move above could see prices testing 26585.
•TRADING RANGE IS 24195-26585.
•BUY SILVER SEPT ABV 25820 SL 25680 TGT 25880-940-990-26050. MCX
•SELL SILVER BELOW 24380 SL 24570 TGT 24270-24180-24080. MCX
•BELOW 24000 IMP SUPPORT IS AT 23650-480. MCX
MCXARUN
9994500540
mcx gold intraday
Gold resistance likely at 13350
02 July 2008 10:47:14
Gold opened at 930.25/931.25 in New York. Prices responded strongly to record-breaking oil, and rallied most of the morning. The metal reached resistance around 944.00 where it range-traded for a while. However, a weakening dollar dragged gold marginally higher, peaking at 946.00/947.00 before falling slightly. Gold closed at 942.50/943.50. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12949 and below could see a test of 12692. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13350, a move above could see prices testing 13494.
• SELL GOLD BELOW 13180 SL 13236 TGT 13157-13116-13060. MCX
• SELL BELOW 13000 TGT 12940-12860. MCX
• TRADING RANGE IS 12692-13494.
MCXARUN
9994500540
02 July 2008 10:47:14
Gold opened at 930.25/931.25 in New York. Prices responded strongly to record-breaking oil, and rallied most of the morning. The metal reached resistance around 944.00 where it range-traded for a while. However, a weakening dollar dragged gold marginally higher, peaking at 946.00/947.00 before falling slightly. Gold closed at 942.50/943.50. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12949 and below could see a test of 12692. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13350, a move above could see prices testing 13494.
• SELL GOLD BELOW 13180 SL 13236 TGT 13157-13116-13060. MCX
• SELL BELOW 13000 TGT 12940-12860. MCX
• TRADING RANGE IS 12692-13494.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold moves up with rising oil values
New York gold prices were off to the (oil-led) races on this, the first day of July, with a near 2% gain, quoted at $942 per ounce amid rising oil values ($142.00 up $2.00) and a declining dollar (down .17 to 72.28 on the index).
Stock futures pointed to a weak opening today, and they indeed followed through on the signal, with the Dow dropping 126 points, as analysts pondered whether last Friday was a bottom, or the beginning of a hairy bear market. Auto sales came in quite weak, denting the Dow further, with Ford's sales slipping 28% and Toyota's (!) dropping over 21% as US buyers stayed away from dealer lots, hoping that, somehow, they can also stay away from the corner gas pump. SUVs anyone? Road trips this summer?
Gas stations in parts of the US are reportedly taking credit cards up-front and requiring all kinds of ID in order to prevent some from driving off with a $100 tankful of gas. Locking gas caps are making Pep Boys a fortune suddenly.
Silver added a more robust 4.3%, rising 76 cents to $18.16 while platinum gained $13 to $2064 and palladium rose $5to $465 per ounce. Also helping gold in this session, were reports that the ECB completed sales of 30 tonnes of bullion as of yesterday, and that it does not intend to sell any more ahead of September's conclusion of the current sales year window.
The ECB's imminent rate hike decision was playing into the euro's hand today, as the currency rose to 1.58 against the greenback.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Stock futures pointed to a weak opening today, and they indeed followed through on the signal, with the Dow dropping 126 points, as analysts pondered whether last Friday was a bottom, or the beginning of a hairy bear market. Auto sales came in quite weak, denting the Dow further, with Ford's sales slipping 28% and Toyota's (!) dropping over 21% as US buyers stayed away from dealer lots, hoping that, somehow, they can also stay away from the corner gas pump. SUVs anyone? Road trips this summer?
Gas stations in parts of the US are reportedly taking credit cards up-front and requiring all kinds of ID in order to prevent some from driving off with a $100 tankful of gas. Locking gas caps are making Pep Boys a fortune suddenly.
Silver added a more robust 4.3%, rising 76 cents to $18.16 while platinum gained $13 to $2064 and palladium rose $5to $465 per ounce. Also helping gold in this session, were reports that the ECB completed sales of 30 tonnes of bullion as of yesterday, and that it does not intend to sell any more ahead of September's conclusion of the current sales year window.
The ECB's imminent rate hike decision was playing into the euro's hand today, as the currency rose to 1.58 against the greenback.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Another workforce reduction news from the US economy as Starbucks says that it will close 600 U.S. coffee shops and eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs. The reductions amount to 7 percent of its workforce worldwide. The cuts include full- and part-time employees and will come over the next nine months. Such news only gives further evidence of the embedded slowdown in US economy. The recovery will not be at the same pace as may of us expect. However the US dollar will not get the same thrashing as we had in the first quarter.
Eurozone, UK and other nations are getting affected due to the continued rise in prices of essentials. Central banks in these regions may raise interest rates in the short term to control inflation but will reverse the same as higher interest rates affects consumption and growth. In the medium term the US dollar is headed for a showdown against the major currencies. The prime reason being shift in central bank focus and their preference on growth versus inflation. The US dollar will emerge a winner in the long term (8-12 months) while in the short term (2-3 months) the US dollar may loose.
Geopolitical uncertainties have resurfaced with fears that Israel may attack Iran’s nuclear installations before US president George Bush leaves his office in January. Crude oil and gold are rising over these uncertainties. The current situation is similar to 2006. In 2006 gold rose to $732 and fell to $546. Thereafter in July, 2006 we had the Iran-Hezbollah tension and gold once again rose to $692 only to fall to $560. If history will repeat itself remains to be seen. The difference between 2006 and 2008 is that of slowdown in global growth and energy prices.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
As long as $2038 holds, platinum will target $2200+. In the short term.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit target 1508 was nearly achieved. For the day as long as 1488-1492 holds it will target 1534 and 1552.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Eurozone, UK and other nations are getting affected due to the continued rise in prices of essentials. Central banks in these regions may raise interest rates in the short term to control inflation but will reverse the same as higher interest rates affects consumption and growth. In the medium term the US dollar is headed for a showdown against the major currencies. The prime reason being shift in central bank focus and their preference on growth versus inflation. The US dollar will emerge a winner in the long term (8-12 months) while in the short term (2-3 months) the US dollar may loose.
Geopolitical uncertainties have resurfaced with fears that Israel may attack Iran’s nuclear installations before US president George Bush leaves his office in January. Crude oil and gold are rising over these uncertainties. The current situation is similar to 2006. In 2006 gold rose to $732 and fell to $546. Thereafter in July, 2006 we had the Iran-Hezbollah tension and gold once again rose to $692 only to fall to $560. If history will repeat itself remains to be seen. The difference between 2006 and 2008 is that of slowdown in global growth and energy prices.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
As long as $2038 holds, platinum will target $2200+. In the short term.
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit target 1508 was nearly achieved. For the day as long as 1488-1492 holds it will target 1534 and 1552.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
we book profit on buy abv 12375/12640/ 12900, for the day buy only abv 13000-13025 S/L 12975 and T/p 13100-150/ close abv 13050 towards 13300 in coming days OR buy ard 12630-35 S/L 12620 and T/p 12690-12730 (any time close above 12900-13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24975 S/L 24890 and T/p 25100-150/sustain abv towards 25500 in coming days OR buy ard 24300-310 S/L 24275 and T/p 12440/24550 (any time close below 24275/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25150/25675/26900/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
as long support of 5975 & 5900 uptrend likely to continue. book profit on buy above 5945/6120, for the day buy abv 6150-6175 S/L 6130 and T/p 6200-6250 OR buy ard 5932-40 S/L 5925 and T/p 5975-90/upto 6035, fall below 5900 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6175 for bullish rally while close below 5900/5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 369.5 S/L 368 and T/p 371-72/375 OR buy ard 358.5-359 S/L 358 and T/p 361 upto 365 (upside strong rally only on close above 369.5/383.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
we book profit on buy abv 12375/12640/ 12900, for the day buy only abv 13000-13025 S/L 12975 and T/p 13100-150/ close abv 13050 towards 13300 in coming days OR buy ard 12630-35 S/L 12620 and T/p 12690-12730 (any time close above 12900-13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24975 S/L 24890 and T/p 25100-150/sustain abv towards 25500 in coming days OR buy ard 24300-310 S/L 24275 and T/p 12440/24550 (any time close below 24275/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25150/25675/26900/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
as long support of 5975 & 5900 uptrend likely to continue. book profit on buy above 5945/6120, for the day buy abv 6150-6175 S/L 6130 and T/p 6200-6250 OR buy ard 5932-40 S/L 5925 and T/p 5975-90/upto 6035, fall below 5900 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6175 for bullish rally while close below 5900/5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 369.5 S/L 368 and T/p 371-72/375 OR buy ard 358.5-359 S/L 358 and T/p 361 upto 365 (upside strong rally only on close above 369.5/383.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Market action in Gold, Oil continues
New York gold's last trading session of the month and the quarter ended with a small loss in the August contract and spot prices were quoted near $926 at last check after a rally that stopped short of $940 following small gains in the US dollar (up to near 72.50 on the index) and an evaporation of most of the early gains that crude oil exhibited in early going.
After climbing to new peaks above $143 black gold eased back to $140.75 retaining only a half dollar advance on the day. US military officials downplayed the potential for Iran to do anything significant in the Straits of Hormuz as far as oil flows are concerned, even if a pre-emptive US or Israeli strike befalls on its nuclear installations.
Stocks were fairly quiet, gaining less than 50 points on the day. Thus far, the month and quarter-end book squaring activity expected for the day has yielded less little in terms of volumes and volatility. Silver lost 6 cents to trade at $17.42 while platinum was still ahead $12 at $2054 (primarily on Lonmin's smelter repairs shutdown) but palladium lost $5 a5 $461 per ounce. The gold ETF made a rather lukewarm debut in Tokyo and will -for the time being- still remain a US institutional and geographic concentration phenomenon.
Dollar policy, interest rate trends, and energy markets unfolding remain at the epicenter of the mid-year markets' pivot points (as they have indeed pretty much dominated the headlines of the first half of 2008) and uncertainty is still part of the financial and market fabric as we head for the second half. The trio may range-trade for a short while yet, but course changes are very likely in the making as we cover the current action.
MCXARUN
9994500540
After climbing to new peaks above $143 black gold eased back to $140.75 retaining only a half dollar advance on the day. US military officials downplayed the potential for Iran to do anything significant in the Straits of Hormuz as far as oil flows are concerned, even if a pre-emptive US or Israeli strike befalls on its nuclear installations.
Stocks were fairly quiet, gaining less than 50 points on the day. Thus far, the month and quarter-end book squaring activity expected for the day has yielded less little in terms of volumes and volatility. Silver lost 6 cents to trade at $17.42 while platinum was still ahead $12 at $2054 (primarily on Lonmin's smelter repairs shutdown) but palladium lost $5 a5 $461 per ounce. The gold ETF made a rather lukewarm debut in Tokyo and will -for the time being- still remain a US institutional and geographic concentration phenomenon.
Dollar policy, interest rate trends, and energy markets unfolding remain at the epicenter of the mid-year markets' pivot points (as they have indeed pretty much dominated the headlines of the first half of 2008) and uncertainty is still part of the financial and market fabric as we head for the second half. The trio may range-trade for a short while yet, but course changes are very likely in the making as we cover the current action.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Traders will be gearing for super Thursday. We have the European central bank meeting and US June non farm payrolls. They will be taking their positions accordingly. Thursdays close can set the trend for rest of July for all metals, energies and the US dollar. As crude oil prices rise we continue to hear voices all over. The US treasury secretary says that they believe in a stronger US dollar. I wonder whether its the same rhetoric as his predecessor John Snow. Whenever John Snow had his comments on reaffirming a stronger US dollar, the dollar index would start to fall in the past. Chinese premiere Wen Jiabao urged the United States to stabilize the dollar. These comments will continue till crude oil prices rise.
Commodities including all metals and energies are rising due to lack of alternate investments in developed markets. Global hedge funds including US state run pension funds are heavily invested in commodities. Global inventories are being manipulated. Fund managers are buying metals like copper, gold, silver and platinum and storing them in private warehouses. When most of the fund managers do the same then global inventories start to fall and these metals rise. This is happening. For commodity prices to fall two conditions must be met. (A) There has to new alternate sources of investments or equity markets rise (B) Global economic uncertainty must fade. Till then commodity prices will remain firm.
SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Silver targets $1930 and $2132 in July as long as $1585-$1600 zone holds on daily closing basis.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Commodities including all metals and energies are rising due to lack of alternate investments in developed markets. Global hedge funds including US state run pension funds are heavily invested in commodities. Global inventories are being manipulated. Fund managers are buying metals like copper, gold, silver and platinum and storing them in private warehouses. When most of the fund managers do the same then global inventories start to fall and these metals rise. This is happening. For commodity prices to fall two conditions must be met. (A) There has to new alternate sources of investments or equity markets rise (B) Global economic uncertainty must fade. Till then commodity prices will remain firm.
SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Silver targets $1930 and $2132 in July as long as $1585-$1600 zone holds on daily closing basis.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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