energy intraday

Energy
02 June 2008 10:19:17

Energy June 02 2008


Major Headlines:

Crude oil raised more than $1 a barrel on Friday as the dollar pared earlier gains, reaffirming the appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency as an inflation hedge. Oil gained 33 percent this year as a 6 percent drop in the dollar versus the euro made crude and other commodities a better value for buyers in other currencies. Prices are heading for a weekly decline after a government report last week showed that U.S. fuel consumption last week fell from a year earlier

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the watchdog for commodity transactions, is investigating U.S. crude oil trading to determine whether the surge to record prices is the result of manipulation or fraud. The CFTC has been investigating the transportation, storage and trading of crude oil in the U.S. since December, The probe includes oil futures contracts, which have soared as much as 40 percent this year to a record above $135 a barrel

The United Arab Emirates, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, is prepared to raise production if required by the market. The U.A.E. is willing and well-prepared, if the market requires, to meet our responsibilities,'' Ali Al Yabhouni, the U.A.E.'s governor to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, told reporters at a media briefing in Dubai last week

Rising anticipations that the Feds may hike interest rates this year gave the dollar the best support possible as investors' risk appetite returned as more and more investors lost interest in the crude markets while prices continued their slip again. In addition to that, US fuel demand dampened by 0.7% to 20.5 million barrels a day as prices have been surging while there is a global slowdown and likely to cripple energy products' demand worldwide.

Also as the US released its economic data regarding GDP showing that it grew at a faster pace in the first quarter, prompted investors to gain confidence in the U.S economy as they entered the stock markets while leaving crude markets


The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies, rose to 73.06. DXY,The stronger dollar also added a bearish tone to oil prices, which have failed to reach new records for a week as several developing nations in Asia have cut subsidies, possibly prompting a drop in Asian energy demand.

Natural gas rose amid speculation warmer weather will boost demand for cooling, Above-normal temperatures are forecast from Texas to the U.S. Northeast during the first two weeks of June, forecaster MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland. Gas inventories ended the winter heating season at 1.234 trillion cubic feet, the lowest in four years






MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.





Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5470 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530

MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.





Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00


Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 504 Target 498 and 495 Stop loss at 508.50

MCXARUN
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