Base metals intraday

· The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports increased by $2.4 billion in January to $148.2 billion while imports increased by $2.7 billion to $206.4 billion. The result was $58.2 billion of net imports in January, up from $57.9 billion in December.

Major Headline:

· Copper rose on concern that supplies may trail demand as investors snap up commodities to
hedge against inflation and labor unrest threatens production.

· The dollar fell to a record low against the euro today, renewing interest in raw materials as an inflation hedge. A strike in Papua New Guinea halted work at a mine that accounts for about 1 percent of world supply. Before today, copper surged 25 percent this year as China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, coped with output disruptions at smelters.

· Employees at the mine stopped work today to demand more pay, the mine produced 169,184 metric tons of copper in concentrate last year, equal to about 1 percent of world mine supply. Concentrate is a semi-processed material sent to smelters.

· Copper has gained for six consecutive years as demand from China, the world's largest user of the metal, expanded. Higher copper prices boosted profit at miners including Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc. World mine output was 15.8 million tons, according to Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group.

· The strike at Ok Tedi is ``illegal,'' Mills said. The stoppage has affected mining and milling operations as well as concentrate handling and shipping at Kiunga port.

· Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME dropped 1.3 percent to 130,250 tons, the exchange said today, to the lowest since Aug. 24. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they stood at 194,447 tons, enough for 3.8 days of global consumption. Last year's average was 4.9 days.

· Nickel fell for a second day on the LME as analysts and users said the rally over the past three weeks wasn't justified by demand.

· Demand for nickel outside of Europe is ``weak,’’ the metal, used in stainless steel, passed $35,000 a metric ton on March 6, the highest since July. Nickel's 14-day relative strength index, a measure of momentum, was above 70 all last week, a level that typically indicates prices may decline.

· Taiyuan Iron & Steel Group, parent of China's biggest stainless-steel maker, said nickel's rally this year is driven by investors rather than demand from mills.

LME Inventory update (11 March, 2008)

copper -1675
alum +8625
zinc +25
nickel +96
lead +100

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper April: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 330 Stop loss 341.10


MCX Zinc March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc March: Sell at 105.50 Target 102 and 100 Stop loss 107.10


MCX Nickel March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1330 Target 1280 and 1260 Stop loss 1352

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead March: Sell at 123.50 Target 120 and 118 Stop loss 125.20

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