April gold closed higher on Tuesday and posted a new contract high close. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 978.50 is the next
upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 899.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 958.40 then monthly resistance crossing at 978.50. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 929.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 899.50.
March silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday and posted a new contract high as it extended this winter's rally. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 19.870 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.281 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.865 then monthly resistance crossing at
19.870. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.716 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.281.
March copper closed higher on Tuesday and closed above October's high crossing at 375.00. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that
a double top with October's high might be forming. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 387.00 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 367.10 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 384.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 387.00.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 367.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
352.19.
April crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally above the previous reaction high crossing at 98.50. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are
turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's
rally above January's high, upside targets will be hard to project now that April has traded into uncharted territory. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 101.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.37. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 93.86.
April Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and closed above the previous contract high crossing at 9.222. Profit taking
tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 9.820 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at 8.883 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.391 then monthly
resistance crossing at 9.820. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.883. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.478.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Comex Gold
International spot gold traded in the range $926.40 - $948.50.
· U.S. stock futures took a turn for the worse Tuesday after the release of stronger-than-expected wholesale inflation data.
· The U.S. Labor Department said PPI rose 1% in January, and increased 0.4% when excluding food and energy. The median estimates of economists surveyed by IFR Markets were for a headline increase of 0.3% and core growth of 0.2%.
· Last month Eskom, the state power utility, cut all power for several days at some of the nation's largest mines. Since then the utility has allowed mines to use 90 percent of former power usage. That amount is forecast to remain for the next four years.
· Gold Fields said the power cuts will likely force it to suspend, scale back or close some of its South African functions. About 6,900 out of its total 53,000 person work force may be let go, the company said. Gold Fields said it was meeting with unions and other groups to find alternatives to layoffs, including early retirement voluntary retrenchments, contractor replacement and reassignment elsewhere within the company. The drop in production has cut into the world's supply, helping in part to boost precious metal prices.
· The euro rose by more than a cent towards its all-time high against the dollar after the closely watched Ifo survey of German business sentiment came in above market expectations, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates any time soon. Earlier in the session, the euro had come under pressure on talk the Ifo would disappoint to the downside.
· The ECB has kept its key refi rate unchanged at 4.00 pct for eight months, unlike the Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England, both of which are cutting rates, helping to underpin the euro.
· Durable goods are expected to drop 3.5 pct in January following a 5.2 pct increase in December. Durable goods excluding transportation are expected to have dropped by 0.7 pct in January following a 2.6 pct increase in the previous month.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916. Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984; supports $896, $883. Expecting further up-trend above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $929.40 - $951.00 and last quoted at $950.40 ($940.50).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Apr) - Bullish above $ 947.30; bearish below $ 943.00
MCXARUN
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· U.S. stock futures took a turn for the worse Tuesday after the release of stronger-than-expected wholesale inflation data.
· The U.S. Labor Department said PPI rose 1% in January, and increased 0.4% when excluding food and energy. The median estimates of economists surveyed by IFR Markets were for a headline increase of 0.3% and core growth of 0.2%.
· Last month Eskom, the state power utility, cut all power for several days at some of the nation's largest mines. Since then the utility has allowed mines to use 90 percent of former power usage. That amount is forecast to remain for the next four years.
· Gold Fields said the power cuts will likely force it to suspend, scale back or close some of its South African functions. About 6,900 out of its total 53,000 person work force may be let go, the company said. Gold Fields said it was meeting with unions and other groups to find alternatives to layoffs, including early retirement voluntary retrenchments, contractor replacement and reassignment elsewhere within the company. The drop in production has cut into the world's supply, helping in part to boost precious metal prices.
· The euro rose by more than a cent towards its all-time high against the dollar after the closely watched Ifo survey of German business sentiment came in above market expectations, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates any time soon. Earlier in the session, the euro had come under pressure on talk the Ifo would disappoint to the downside.
· The ECB has kept its key refi rate unchanged at 4.00 pct for eight months, unlike the Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England, both of which are cutting rates, helping to underpin the euro.
· Durable goods are expected to drop 3.5 pct in January following a 5.2 pct increase in December. Durable goods excluding transportation are expected to have dropped by 0.7 pct in January following a 2.6 pct increase in the previous month.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916. Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984; supports $896, $883. Expecting further up-trend above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $929.40 - $951.00 and last quoted at $950.40 ($940.50).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Apr) - Bullish above $ 947.30; bearish below $ 943.00
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Energy intraday
· MCX Crude oil March traded near Rs. 3996 as days high following international energy prices, US data also supported the movement.
· NYMEX crude managed to trade above $100, Natural Gas also following higher energy prices. but market is still waiting for inventory data to be released today.
· Oil steadied as players weighed cold weather in the US and Europe and ongoing worries over geopolitical tensions in key producing countries against expectations of further gains in US crude oil inventories. In addition, analysts said the the profit-taking spree seen in earlier trades had run out of steam as the market remains nervous ahead of the OPEC cartel's production meeting in Vienna on March 5.
· Markets expect US inventory data will show crude stocks rose again last week, meaning there is a risk that oil could trend lower as supply side worries wane slightly. On the other hand, however, with the current cold snap in the US and Europe, markets could get uneasy should tomorrow's data also show further falls in distillates, as expected.
· All the same, it is underpinning prices for now, while concerns over the security of supplies from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela have not yet gone away.
· The UN Security Council is expected to pass a resolution on Friday on possible stricter sanctions against Iran because it claims it has not been forthcoming over the aims of its nuclear programme.
· Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, has warned of "decisive reciprocal measures" should the UN impose further sanctions, sparking fears it plans to withhold oil sales.
· Meanwhile in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, militant attacks against the oil industry could escalate, especially if the courts rule that last year's presidential elections were flawed.
· Elsewhere, there are fears over the security of supplies from Iraq, where Turkey last week launched a military incursion into the oil-rich north in a bid to flush out Kurdish separatist rebels. And in Venezuela, the spat with Exxon-Mobil over the nationalisation of oil projects continues, with the South American country still withholding oil sales from the US oil giant.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3920-30 for the target of 4040 and 4100 with stop loss at 3885
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March:
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· NYMEX crude managed to trade above $100, Natural Gas also following higher energy prices. but market is still waiting for inventory data to be released today.
· Oil steadied as players weighed cold weather in the US and Europe and ongoing worries over geopolitical tensions in key producing countries against expectations of further gains in US crude oil inventories. In addition, analysts said the the profit-taking spree seen in earlier trades had run out of steam as the market remains nervous ahead of the OPEC cartel's production meeting in Vienna on March 5.
· Markets expect US inventory data will show crude stocks rose again last week, meaning there is a risk that oil could trend lower as supply side worries wane slightly. On the other hand, however, with the current cold snap in the US and Europe, markets could get uneasy should tomorrow's data also show further falls in distillates, as expected.
· All the same, it is underpinning prices for now, while concerns over the security of supplies from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela have not yet gone away.
· The UN Security Council is expected to pass a resolution on Friday on possible stricter sanctions against Iran because it claims it has not been forthcoming over the aims of its nuclear programme.
· Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, has warned of "decisive reciprocal measures" should the UN impose further sanctions, sparking fears it plans to withhold oil sales.
· Meanwhile in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, militant attacks against the oil industry could escalate, especially if the courts rule that last year's presidential elections were flawed.
· Elsewhere, there are fears over the security of supplies from Iraq, where Turkey last week launched a military incursion into the oil-rich north in a bid to flush out Kurdish separatist rebels. And in Venezuela, the spat with Exxon-Mobil over the nationalisation of oil projects continues, with the South American country still withholding oil sales from the US oil giant.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3920-30 for the target of 4040 and 4100 with stop loss at 3885
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March:
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Base metals intraday
· MCX Copper erased declines on speculation that increasing demand from China will erode global inventories. Tin extended gains to a record. Copper April traded near Rs. 330 per kg following Comex trading.
· Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange were little changed after climbing 13,850 tons, or 10 percent, in the previous two days. Imports of refined copper and alloys into China gained 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the customs office said Feb. 22.
· Prices in London have increased 23 percent this year compared with a 15 percent advance in the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials.
· LME copper inventories fell 100 tons to 149,125 tons, the exchange said today in its daily warehouse report. They jumped 7,625 tons yesterday and 6,225 tons on Feb. 22.
· Supply may expand in April through June when companies are due to start up some 500,000 tons of annual production capacity, The new mines include Codelco's Gaby in Chile, Equinox Minerals Ltd.'s Lumwana copper deposit in Zambia and Oxiana Ltd.'s Prominent Hill in Australia.
· China's Yunnan Tin Co., the world's largest producer of the metal, plans to raise output about 12 percent this year, according to an earnings statement distributed yesterday.
· MCX Nickel march traded at Rs. 1124 per kg, while Zinc March traded near Rs. 99 per kg. MCx Lead April registered days high near Rs. 130.50 per kg.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 326 for the target of 332 and 337 with stop loss at 321.50
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1120 for the target of 1148 and 1160 with stop loss at 1106
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 128.50 for the target of 131 and 134 with stop loss at 126.20
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· Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange were little changed after climbing 13,850 tons, or 10 percent, in the previous two days. Imports of refined copper and alloys into China gained 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the customs office said Feb. 22.
· Prices in London have increased 23 percent this year compared with a 15 percent advance in the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials.
· LME copper inventories fell 100 tons to 149,125 tons, the exchange said today in its daily warehouse report. They jumped 7,625 tons yesterday and 6,225 tons on Feb. 22.
· Supply may expand in April through June when companies are due to start up some 500,000 tons of annual production capacity, The new mines include Codelco's Gaby in Chile, Equinox Minerals Ltd.'s Lumwana copper deposit in Zambia and Oxiana Ltd.'s Prominent Hill in Australia.
· China's Yunnan Tin Co., the world's largest producer of the metal, plans to raise output about 12 percent this year, according to an earnings statement distributed yesterday.
· MCX Nickel march traded at Rs. 1124 per kg, while Zinc March traded near Rs. 99 per kg. MCx Lead April registered days high near Rs. 130.50 per kg.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 326 for the target of 332 and 337 with stop loss at 321.50
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1120 for the target of 1148 and 1160 with stop loss at 1106
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 128.50 for the target of 131 and 134 with stop loss at 126.20
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Bullion intraday
· MCX Gold April traded near Rs. 12068 following international trend, Silver traded more aggressive and touched contract high registered days high near Rs. 23544.
· International spot gold traded towards days high near $944.60 and spot silver traded at $18.49 per toz.
· U.S. stock futures took a turn for the worse Tuesday after the release of stronger-than-expected wholesale inflation data.
· Prior to the release of the January produce price index, S&P 500 futures were trading around 1,371 and Nasdaq 100 futures were around 1,788.
· The Dow industrials "Diamonds" ETF (DIA) was last down 0.2% at $125.33 in ahead of Tuesday's open vs. a pre-PPI data level of about $125.54.
· The U.S. Labor Department said PPI rose 1% in January, and increased 0.4% when excluding food and energy. The median estimates of economists surveyed by IFR Markets was for a headline increase of 0.3% and core growth of 0.2%. Tomi Kilgore
· Last month Eskom, the state power utility, cut all power for several days at some of the nation's largest mines. Since then the utility has allowed mines to use 90 percent of former power usage. That amount is forecast to remain for the next four years.
· Gold Fields said the power cuts will likely force it to suspend, scale back or close some of its South African functions. About 6,900 out of its total 53,000 person work force may be let go, the company said. Gold Fields said it was meeting with unions and other groups to find alternatives to layoffs, including early retirement voluntary retrenchments, contractor replacement and reassignment elsewhere within the company. The drop in production has cut into the world's supply, helping in part to boost precious
· The euro rose by more than a cent towards its all-time high against the dollar after the closely watched Ifo survey of German business sentiment came in above market expectations, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates any time soon. Earlier in the session, the euro had come under pressure on talk the Ifo would disappoint to the downside.
· The ECB has kept its key refi rate unchanged at 4.00 pct for eight months, unlike the Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England, both of which are cutting rates, helping to underpin the euro.
· Durable goods are expected to drop 3.5 pct in January following a 5.2 pct increase in December. Durable goods excluding transportation are expected to have dropped by 0.7 pct in January following a 2.6 pct increase in the previous month.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals end with gains in spot markets tracing the record high touched in domestic futures market.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs 12,265 per 10 gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,320/10gm. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,735/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,300/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,000/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold (.999) closed at Rs 12,330/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,470/kg.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12010-30 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920
MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 23300 for the target of 23800 and 24000 with stop loss at 23165
MCXARUN
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· International spot gold traded towards days high near $944.60 and spot silver traded at $18.49 per toz.
· U.S. stock futures took a turn for the worse Tuesday after the release of stronger-than-expected wholesale inflation data.
· Prior to the release of the January produce price index, S&P 500 futures were trading around 1,371 and Nasdaq 100 futures were around 1,788.
· The Dow industrials "Diamonds" ETF (DIA) was last down 0.2% at $125.33 in ahead of Tuesday's open vs. a pre-PPI data level of about $125.54.
· The U.S. Labor Department said PPI rose 1% in January, and increased 0.4% when excluding food and energy. The median estimates of economists surveyed by IFR Markets was for a headline increase of 0.3% and core growth of 0.2%. Tomi Kilgore
· Last month Eskom, the state power utility, cut all power for several days at some of the nation's largest mines. Since then the utility has allowed mines to use 90 percent of former power usage. That amount is forecast to remain for the next four years.
· Gold Fields said the power cuts will likely force it to suspend, scale back or close some of its South African functions. About 6,900 out of its total 53,000 person work force may be let go, the company said. Gold Fields said it was meeting with unions and other groups to find alternatives to layoffs, including early retirement voluntary retrenchments, contractor replacement and reassignment elsewhere within the company. The drop in production has cut into the world's supply, helping in part to boost precious
· The euro rose by more than a cent towards its all-time high against the dollar after the closely watched Ifo survey of German business sentiment came in above market expectations, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates any time soon. Earlier in the session, the euro had come under pressure on talk the Ifo would disappoint to the downside.
· The ECB has kept its key refi rate unchanged at 4.00 pct for eight months, unlike the Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England, both of which are cutting rates, helping to underpin the euro.
· Durable goods are expected to drop 3.5 pct in January following a 5.2 pct increase in December. Durable goods excluding transportation are expected to have dropped by 0.7 pct in January following a 2.6 pct increase in the previous month.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals end with gains in spot markets tracing the record high touched in domestic futures market.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs 12,265 per 10 gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,320/10gm. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,735/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,300/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,000/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold (.999) closed at Rs 12,330/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,470/kg.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12010-30 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920
MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 23300 for the target of 23800 and 24000 with stop loss at 23165
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3995 BEARISH BELOW 3975
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12096 BEARISH BELOW 12055
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23610 BEARISH BELOW 23530
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 330.5 BEARISH BELOW 329.50
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 129.70BEARISH BELOW 129.30
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1115 BEARISH BELOW 1107
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.40 BEARISH BELOW 98.00
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12096 BEARISH BELOW 12055
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23610 BEARISH BELOW 23530
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 330.5 BEARISH BELOW 329.50
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 129.70BEARISH BELOW 129.30
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1115 BEARISH BELOW 1107
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.40 BEARISH BELOW 98.00
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Safe trade
GOLD
our S/L hit, for the day buy only abv 12150 & more abv 12200 S/L 12120 and T/p 12300-350 atleast OR buy ard 11960-970 S/L 11950 and T/p 12050-100, anytime sustain below 11875 lead sharp correction test 12800-12725 atleast (any time close above 12200 bullish while close below 11875/11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy ard 22925-40/23275, for the day buy only abv 23850 S/L 23750 and T/p 24000-24200 atleast OR buy ard 23390-410 S/L 23350 and T/p 23550-23650 (any time close below 22900-650/21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/19000/ 18625/ 18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23850 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
OUR WORDS sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 running. book profit on buy abv 3960, for the day buy only abv 4020 S/L 4000 and T/p 4050-75 atleast OR buy ard 3955-60 S/L 3945 and T/p 3970-3995 (now crude need to close above 4020 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/ 3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 332.5 S/L 331 and T/p 335.5/337.5/339/sustain abv 339 rally test 342-346 atleast upto 351 OR buy ard 325.8-326.2 S/L 325 and T/p 328-330.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 339.5/348 while close below 321.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/278/ 270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
our S/L hit, for the day buy only abv 12150 & more abv 12200 S/L 12120 and T/p 12300-350 atleast OR buy ard 11960-970 S/L 11950 and T/p 12050-100, anytime sustain below 11875 lead sharp correction test 12800-12725 atleast (any time close above 12200 bullish while close below 11875/11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy ard 22925-40/23275, for the day buy only abv 23850 S/L 23750 and T/p 24000-24200 atleast OR buy ard 23390-410 S/L 23350 and T/p 23550-23650 (any time close below 22900-650/21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/19000/ 18625/ 18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23850 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
OUR WORDS sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 running. book profit on buy abv 3960, for the day buy only abv 4020 S/L 4000 and T/p 4050-75 atleast OR buy ard 3955-60 S/L 3945 and T/p 3970-3995 (now crude need to close above 4020 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/ 3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 332.5 S/L 331 and T/p 335.5/337.5/339/sustain abv 339 rally test 342-346 atleast upto 351 OR buy ard 325.8-326.2 S/L 325 and T/p 328-330.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 339.5/348 while close below 321.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/278/ 270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Silver shines brighter than other metals. It’s all about the dollar decline story and expectations that Fed interest rate cuts may prevent an immediate US recession for metals and energies. Silver is getting its due. Shorts in silver are getting squared off and new longs are being built. The rise in silver will also result in some short term hot money flowing into silver which so far has lagged and means more gains for silver. The Eurozone economy may not slowdown as much which has resulted in traders paring bets over interest rate cuts by the European central bank. This has resulted in the Euro/USD edging past 1.50 for more. Unless profit taking comes in silver, silver will continue to trade firm.
Crude oil is floating over $100 a barrel and looks headed for $107 and $112 in the short term. Higher crude oil and energy prices are inflationary and gold is the best hedge against a global slowdown. Only in the last quarter of 2008 higher base effects will result in lower headline inflation till then global inflation will remain on the higher side. It’s a momentum market and momentum is bullish in all metals and energies.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1856
Silver intra day key support at $1834. For the day, silver holds $1887 then $1988 is the target.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $384.0
Copper targets $390, $403 if it holds $378 and $372.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.52
Only a break of $102 will result in $107 and $112. Key weekly support at $95.31 and $97.52.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude oil is floating over $100 a barrel and looks headed for $107 and $112 in the short term. Higher crude oil and energy prices are inflationary and gold is the best hedge against a global slowdown. Only in the last quarter of 2008 higher base effects will result in lower headline inflation till then global inflation will remain on the higher side. It’s a momentum market and momentum is bullish in all metals and energies.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1856
Silver intra day key support at $1834. For the day, silver holds $1887 then $1988 is the target.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $384.0
Copper targets $390, $403 if it holds $378 and $372.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.52
Only a break of $102 will result in $107 and $112. Key weekly support at $95.31 and $97.52.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Long view
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 344-347 UPTO 350 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 339, AND CLOSE ABOVE 351 TEST 360-65 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 302.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 344-347 UPTO 350 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 339, AND CLOSE ABOVE 351 TEST 360-65 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 302.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Safe trade
GOLD
now any sustain below 11970 lead correction for 11850-825 atleast, for the day sell only below 11970 S/L 11995 and T/p 11900-875-825 atleast OR sell ard 12125-30 S/L 12140 and T/p 12090-12050 (any time close above 12200 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on buy last, for the day buy only abv 23275 S/L 23200 and T/p 23400-500 OR sell below 22900 S/L 23000 and T/p 22825-750/650/sustain below 22650 sharp correction (any time close below 22650/21940/21700-475/ 20950/20300/19725/19375/19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23275 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 3960 S/L 3945 and T/p 3980-85/sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 OR sell below 3880 S/L 3900 and T/p 3860-45/ sustain below 3840 test 3780-3800 atleast (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/ 3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 323 & more below 321.5 S/L 325 and T/p 318-315 OR sell ard 332.5-333 S/L 333.5 and T/p 330.5-329/327 (upside strong rally only on close above 339.5/348 while close below 321.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/ 278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
now any sustain below 11970 lead correction for 11850-825 atleast, for the day sell only below 11970 S/L 11995 and T/p 11900-875-825 atleast OR sell ard 12125-30 S/L 12140 and T/p 12090-12050 (any time close above 12200 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on buy last, for the day buy only abv 23275 S/L 23200 and T/p 23400-500 OR sell below 22900 S/L 23000 and T/p 22825-750/650/sustain below 22650 sharp correction (any time close below 22650/21940/21700-475/ 20950/20300/19725/19375/19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23275 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 3960 S/L 3945 and T/p 3980-85/sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 OR sell below 3880 S/L 3900 and T/p 3860-45/ sustain below 3840 test 3780-3800 atleast (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/ 3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 323 & more below 321.5 S/L 325 and T/p 318-315 OR sell ard 332.5-333 S/L 333.5 and T/p 330.5-329/327 (upside strong rally only on close above 339.5/348 while close below 321.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/ 278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy intraday
· MCX Crude Oil March traded positive following international clues and registered days high near Rs. 3960 per barrel and days low remain at Rs. 3887 per barrel.
· MCX Natural Gas March followed oil prices and traded near Rs. 372.
· Fund money has poured into commodities recently as market players look to hedge against the weakness prevalent in equity and bond markets during the current financial turmoil. While the inflow of financial players has boosted prices, it has left the complex vulnerable to corrections on profit-taking.
· Rising tensions in the Middle East have leant support to oil's move back up to around the 100 usd handle, with Turkey's move into northern Iraq and warnings by Iran against further sanctions increasing fears over the security of supplies.
· Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported it was still unsatisfied with its investigation into Iran's past nuclear weapons research, despite cooperation in other areas from the Islamic state.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has threatened "decisive reciprocal measures" against any country who supports increasing sanctions against the Islamic state. The UN Security Council with Germany is preparing a third tougher round of sanctions in response to the IAEA's report, increasing fears Iran could use oil supplies as a political weapon.
· Turkey's military move into Iraq has also stoked fears over supplies, with fighting in the key energy corridor heightening concerns that Kurdish guerillas could target pipelines in the area. The Ceyhan pipeline, which exports around 300,000 barrels of Iraqi oil through Turkey, has not been affected so far, according to the Iraqi oil ministry.
· While price gains have been fuelled by geopolitical risks, many market analysts continue to point to the increase in fund activity in the crude market for oil's return to the 100 usd handle.Speculative long positions, or bets the price will rise, were up by over 15,000 contracts for WTI in the week to Feb 19, according to the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
· Looking ahead, investors are keeping one eye on next Wednesday's OPEC meeting in Vienna. The cartel has repeatedly said it will not up production levels, blaming oil's rise to near record levels on market speculation and geopolitical tension rather than any shortage of supply.
· OPEC may in fact consider a cut at its meeting, as demand is seasonally lower in the second quarter of the year, and the cartel is concerned a slowing US economy could see demand for crude fall.
· OPEC has come in for criticism from some quarters for contemplating output cuts when prices remain close to 100 usd. The Centre for Global Energy Studies has accused OPEC of keeping supplies low to run down global inventory cover, contributing to the run-up in prices.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3845-50 for the target of 3990 and 4025 with stop loss at 3810
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Sell at 376-79 for the target of 365 and 358 with stop loss at 387
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Natural Gas March followed oil prices and traded near Rs. 372.
· Fund money has poured into commodities recently as market players look to hedge against the weakness prevalent in equity and bond markets during the current financial turmoil. While the inflow of financial players has boosted prices, it has left the complex vulnerable to corrections on profit-taking.
· Rising tensions in the Middle East have leant support to oil's move back up to around the 100 usd handle, with Turkey's move into northern Iraq and warnings by Iran against further sanctions increasing fears over the security of supplies.
· Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported it was still unsatisfied with its investigation into Iran's past nuclear weapons research, despite cooperation in other areas from the Islamic state.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has threatened "decisive reciprocal measures" against any country who supports increasing sanctions against the Islamic state. The UN Security Council with Germany is preparing a third tougher round of sanctions in response to the IAEA's report, increasing fears Iran could use oil supplies as a political weapon.
· Turkey's military move into Iraq has also stoked fears over supplies, with fighting in the key energy corridor heightening concerns that Kurdish guerillas could target pipelines in the area. The Ceyhan pipeline, which exports around 300,000 barrels of Iraqi oil through Turkey, has not been affected so far, according to the Iraqi oil ministry.
· While price gains have been fuelled by geopolitical risks, many market analysts continue to point to the increase in fund activity in the crude market for oil's return to the 100 usd handle.Speculative long positions, or bets the price will rise, were up by over 15,000 contracts for WTI in the week to Feb 19, according to the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
· Looking ahead, investors are keeping one eye on next Wednesday's OPEC meeting in Vienna. The cartel has repeatedly said it will not up production levels, blaming oil's rise to near record levels on market speculation and geopolitical tension rather than any shortage of supply.
· OPEC may in fact consider a cut at its meeting, as demand is seasonally lower in the second quarter of the year, and the cartel is concerned a slowing US economy could see demand for crude fall.
· OPEC has come in for criticism from some quarters for contemplating output cuts when prices remain close to 100 usd. The Centre for Global Energy Studies has accused OPEC of keeping supplies low to run down global inventory cover, contributing to the run-up in prices.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3845-50 for the target of 3990 and 4025 with stop loss at 3810
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Sell at 376-79 for the target of 365 and 358 with stop loss at 387
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals intraday
· Copper was lower in early afternoon trade after hitting a 21-month high this morning as the LME reported a fresh build in stockpiles.
· MCX Copper April traded weak following international clues registered days low near Rs. 325.10 per kg, market re-retreated from days high of Rs. 337.90 per kg. MCX Zinc March followed red metal and traded near Rs. 100 per kg, MCX Lead March traded near Rs. 129.35 per kg.
· LME copper erased gains after stockpiles stored at exchange- monitored warehouses expanded 5.4 percent to 149,225 tons, the largest daily increase since Aug. 28. The deliveries were made to South Korea, the nearest location to China. LME-tracked inventory has dropped 24 percent this year.
· Before it, Copper traded near a two-year record in London on speculation that supply disruptions will drive prices higher. Tin rose to the highest since at least 1989.
· Open interest of copper futures, which measures outstanding positions that haven't been closed or liquidated, this month was at the highest since at least 2005 when Bloomberg records began, signaling demand for the metal. Hedge-fund managers and other speculators increased bets that New York copper will rise, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
· However, prices are continuing to take support from a flood of fund money into the commodities complex, which is supporting the metals at healthy levels this morning, analysts said.
· Copper has been well supported by falling stockpiles in recent weeks, and analysts fear the recent rebuild in inventories could pressure prices lower amid expectations the bleak US economic picture could weigh on consumption.
· Tin inventories have been weakened over the last year by restrictions on exports from major producer Indonesia. Falling exports from Asia have been a major factor in an 11 pct decline in LME-monitored stockpiles of the metal since the beginning of the year.
· Power shortages in China, the world's largest refiner of copper and also the biggest consumer, disrupted output and inflated prices. The metal's gains ``are excessive,'' Weinberg said.
· China canceled electricity price discounts for the aluminum and ferro-alloy industries in 18 provinces to save energy, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement today. The measure will increase production costs at companies including Aluminum Corp of China Ltd., the country's top producer.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 323-25 for the target of 328 and 337 with stop loss at 318
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 97.00-97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1130-34 for the target of 1158 and 1170 with stop loss at 1120
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 128.50 for the target of 131 and 134 with stop loss at 126.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Copper April traded weak following international clues registered days low near Rs. 325.10 per kg, market re-retreated from days high of Rs. 337.90 per kg. MCX Zinc March followed red metal and traded near Rs. 100 per kg, MCX Lead March traded near Rs. 129.35 per kg.
· LME copper erased gains after stockpiles stored at exchange- monitored warehouses expanded 5.4 percent to 149,225 tons, the largest daily increase since Aug. 28. The deliveries were made to South Korea, the nearest location to China. LME-tracked inventory has dropped 24 percent this year.
· Before it, Copper traded near a two-year record in London on speculation that supply disruptions will drive prices higher. Tin rose to the highest since at least 1989.
· Open interest of copper futures, which measures outstanding positions that haven't been closed or liquidated, this month was at the highest since at least 2005 when Bloomberg records began, signaling demand for the metal. Hedge-fund managers and other speculators increased bets that New York copper will rise, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
· However, prices are continuing to take support from a flood of fund money into the commodities complex, which is supporting the metals at healthy levels this morning, analysts said.
· Copper has been well supported by falling stockpiles in recent weeks, and analysts fear the recent rebuild in inventories could pressure prices lower amid expectations the bleak US economic picture could weigh on consumption.
· Tin inventories have been weakened over the last year by restrictions on exports from major producer Indonesia. Falling exports from Asia have been a major factor in an 11 pct decline in LME-monitored stockpiles of the metal since the beginning of the year.
· Power shortages in China, the world's largest refiner of copper and also the biggest consumer, disrupted output and inflated prices. The metal's gains ``are excessive,'' Weinberg said.
· China canceled electricity price discounts for the aluminum and ferro-alloy industries in 18 provinces to save energy, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement today. The measure will increase production costs at companies including Aluminum Corp of China Ltd., the country's top producer.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 323-25 for the target of 328 and 337 with stop loss at 318
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 97.00-97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1130-34 for the target of 1158 and 1170 with stop loss at 1120
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 128.50 for the target of 131 and 134 with stop loss at 126.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
· Gold slipped from record peaks as market participants sold the metal on news the US treasury is likely to approve the sale of gold from the International Monetary Fund.
· The US Treasury, in a significant policy shift, has decided it will support gold sales from the International Monetary Fund's reserves if they are part of a package of cost-cutting and other reforms of the way the international financial organization operates.
· Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick will lay out the details in a Washington speech later today. In a pre-address briefing for reporters, he said the Bush administration -- which had until now opposed selling IMF gold reserves -- would support a sale of the scale of roughly 8 pct of the IMF reserves or 12.9 mln ounces as part of a package of reforms which also included significant cost-cutting in IMF operations.
· The dollar stayed well bid, with talk of a rescue plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial Group boosting sentiment, although attention is also starting to fall on the raft of US data and events this week.
· Fed chief Ben Bernanke's testimony to the US Congress will be a key event for the dollar and will shed more light on whether markets are pricing in too many more rate cuts in the world's biggest economy.
· The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales were down .4% in January to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. The number of existing homes for sale represent 10.3 months of inventory.
· Johannesburg-based gold mining company Gold Fields Ltd. said Monday that it will be forced to scale back or close parts of its operations to achieve the 10% power reduction imposed by South African power supplier Eskom Holdings Ltd., which will further affect gold output.
· The company reiterated that as a result of the power cut, sustainable production at Gold Fields' South African operations is likely to decline by between 15% and 20% from the June quarter of 2008 onwards.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals end with gains in spot markets tracing the record high touched in domestic futures market, on the back of a firming crude oil and expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs 12,265 per 10 gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,320/10gm. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,735/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,300/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,000/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold(.999) closed at Rs 12,330/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,470/kg.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy only above 12010 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920
MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22870 to 22900 for the target of 23300 and 23500 with stop loss at 22680
MCXARUN
9994500540
· The US Treasury, in a significant policy shift, has decided it will support gold sales from the International Monetary Fund's reserves if they are part of a package of cost-cutting and other reforms of the way the international financial organization operates.
· Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick will lay out the details in a Washington speech later today. In a pre-address briefing for reporters, he said the Bush administration -- which had until now opposed selling IMF gold reserves -- would support a sale of the scale of roughly 8 pct of the IMF reserves or 12.9 mln ounces as part of a package of reforms which also included significant cost-cutting in IMF operations.
· The dollar stayed well bid, with talk of a rescue plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial Group boosting sentiment, although attention is also starting to fall on the raft of US data and events this week.
· Fed chief Ben Bernanke's testimony to the US Congress will be a key event for the dollar and will shed more light on whether markets are pricing in too many more rate cuts in the world's biggest economy.
· The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales were down .4% in January to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. The number of existing homes for sale represent 10.3 months of inventory.
· Johannesburg-based gold mining company Gold Fields Ltd. said Monday that it will be forced to scale back or close parts of its operations to achieve the 10% power reduction imposed by South African power supplier Eskom Holdings Ltd., which will further affect gold output.
· The company reiterated that as a result of the power cut, sustainable production at Gold Fields' South African operations is likely to decline by between 15% and 20% from the June quarter of 2008 onwards.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals end with gains in spot markets tracing the record high touched in domestic futures market, on the back of a firming crude oil and expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs 12,265 per 10 gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,320/10gm. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,735/kg.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 12,300/10gm whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,000/kg.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs 12,250/10gm and gold(.999) closed at Rs 12,330/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,470/kg.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy only above 12010 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920
MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22870 to 22900 for the target of 23300 and 23500 with stop loss at 22680
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3937 BEARISH BELOW 3918
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12077 BEARISH BELOW 12037
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23155 BEARISH BELOW 23060
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 330.2 BEARISH BELOW 329.20
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 129.80BEARISH BELOW 129.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1133 BEARISH BELOW 1126
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 100 BEARISH BELOW 99.40
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12077 BEARISH BELOW 12037
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23155 BEARISH BELOW 23060
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 330.2 BEARISH BELOW 329.20
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 129.80BEARISH BELOW 129.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1133 BEARISH BELOW 1126
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 100 BEARISH BELOW 99.40
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Outlook
April gold closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 978.50
is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 899.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 958.40 then monthly resistance crossing at 978.50. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 927.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 899.50.
March silver closed higher on Monday and posted a new contract high close. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 18.450 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.176 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 18.195 then monthly resistance crossing at 18.450. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 17.580 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.176.
March copper posted a key reversal down on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a
double top with October's high might be forming. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 387.00 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 364.74 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 384.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 387.00. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 364.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 349.72.
April crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting
that a double top with January's high might be forming. If April extends last week's rally above January's high, upside targets
will be hard to project now that April has traded into uncharted territory. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
96.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 100.86. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.36.
April Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday and spiked above the previous contract high crossing at 9.222. Profit
taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 9.820 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 8.817 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at
9.391 then monthly resistance crossing at 9.820. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.816. Second support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.417.
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steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 978.50
is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 899.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 958.40 then monthly resistance crossing at 978.50. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 927.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 899.50.
March silver closed higher on Monday and posted a new contract high close. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 18.450 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.176 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 18.195 then monthly resistance crossing at 18.450. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 17.580 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.176.
March copper posted a key reversal down on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a
double top with October's high might be forming. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 387.00 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 364.74 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 384.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 387.00. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 364.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 349.72.
April crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting
that a double top with January's high might be forming. If April extends last week's rally above January's high, upside targets
will be hard to project now that April has traded into uncharted territory. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
96.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 100.86. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.36.
April Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday and spiked above the previous contract high crossing at 9.222. Profit
taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 9.820 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 8.817 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at
9.391 then monthly resistance crossing at 9.820. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.816. Second support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.417.
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold and silver fell after the U.S. Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick said that the Bush administration would support a sale of roughly 8% of the IMF reserves, or 12.9 million ounces. IMF gold sales could result in some of the long positions in gold getting squared off. The real effect of IMF gold sales will be when they announce the time of sale or the period within which IMF gold will be sold. However the dip in gold will not last long and will be used by long term investors to reenter. Unless gold is in a short term to medium term bear phase gold will not fall. At lower levels there will be greater physical demand. For gold to be in a bear zone four conditions need to be met:
(A) Global equity markets need a sustained rise
(B) Geopolitical risk should not escalate
(C) Global economy remains robust and last but not the least
(D) The US dollar should gain. Even if there is a correction to $850 or $770 in the next few months, it will not alter the medium term bull rally in gold.
There could be some month end profit taking in silver and copper ahead of the March future expiry which could drag prices lower if they do not hold key technical supports. Gold has corrected due to IMF gold sales news. The big question is where is crude oil headed? For the moment it is trading in $96-$101 range which will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1796.0
Failure of silver to break $1824-$1844 will result in a fall to $1752 and $1720 and $1688.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $382.0
Copper is bullish over $356.70. Only a daily close below $356.70 will result in $339. Upside is open with $379, $386 as resistances.
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(A) Global equity markets need a sustained rise
(B) Geopolitical risk should not escalate
(C) Global economy remains robust and last but not the least
(D) The US dollar should gain. Even if there is a correction to $850 or $770 in the next few months, it will not alter the medium term bull rally in gold.
There could be some month end profit taking in silver and copper ahead of the March future expiry which could drag prices lower if they do not hold key technical supports. Gold has corrected due to IMF gold sales news. The big question is where is crude oil headed? For the moment it is trading in $96-$101 range which will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1796.0
Failure of silver to break $1824-$1844 will result in a fall to $1752 and $1720 and $1688.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $382.0
Copper is bullish over $356.70. Only a daily close below $356.70 will result in $339. Upside is open with $379, $386 as resistances.
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Monday, February 25, 2008
Energy intraday
· Oil hovered near 99 usd per barrel, weighed slightly as falling equity markets reignited worries over lower demand but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lent some support.
· Prices have been volatile so far today, amid a mixed fundamental supply/demand backdrop. While swelling US inventory reported yesterday saw prices lower this morning, tension between Turkey and Iraq -- which could end up harming supply -- lifted crude's value later in the session.
· Meanwhile, the threat of lower demand as equity markets tumbled was still prevalent. Oil and another commodities have tracked equity markets in recent months, with some players worried further falls on the stock markets could mean lower demand ahead. US Stocks fell today as investors with little news to trade on after Thursday's pullback kept selling ahead of economic figures due next week.
· On the political side, Turkish troops have entered northern Iraq to hunt Kurdish separatist rebels after fighter jets struck at their bases, the Turkish army said Friday.
· Some 10,000 troops penetrated 10 km (six miles) into the crude-rich autonomous Kurdish northern Iraq, the NTV news channel said.
· In the meantime, Iraqi exports through the north have been suspended. Citigroup analyst said the Turkish incursion was merely giving the market a psychological lift, adding that US supply, especially for gasoline, was not tight.
· Prices had started the day lower because yesterday's US Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose for the sixth consecutive week, this time by 4.2 mln barrels in the week to Feb 15, shocking traders who had expected crude inventories to rise just 2.6 mln barrels. Gasoline stocks, meanwhile, rose to their highest level since February 1994.
· Earlier this week, however, oil hit a record 101.32 usd per barrel as investment into commodities surged. Such investment is not likely to leave the market just yet, some analysts said.
· Strength in prices across commodities indicates that the rally is likely fuelled by fresh inflow of capital as investors see commodities as an alternative asset class," said Bank of America analysts. Elsewhere, gold and platinum were close to record highs.
· Looking ahead, consumer pressure on OPEC to release more oil at its March 5 meet is likely to grow, but the cartel has repeatedly insisted it is not to blame for the high price. In the group's last two meetings since December 2007 OPEC ministers have chosen to keep production steady at 29.67 mln bpd.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3845-50 for the target of 3990 and 4025 with stop loss at 3810
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Sell at 376-79 for the target of 365 and 358 with stop loss at 387
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· Prices have been volatile so far today, amid a mixed fundamental supply/demand backdrop. While swelling US inventory reported yesterday saw prices lower this morning, tension between Turkey and Iraq -- which could end up harming supply -- lifted crude's value later in the session.
· Meanwhile, the threat of lower demand as equity markets tumbled was still prevalent. Oil and another commodities have tracked equity markets in recent months, with some players worried further falls on the stock markets could mean lower demand ahead. US Stocks fell today as investors with little news to trade on after Thursday's pullback kept selling ahead of economic figures due next week.
· On the political side, Turkish troops have entered northern Iraq to hunt Kurdish separatist rebels after fighter jets struck at their bases, the Turkish army said Friday.
· Some 10,000 troops penetrated 10 km (six miles) into the crude-rich autonomous Kurdish northern Iraq, the NTV news channel said.
· In the meantime, Iraqi exports through the north have been suspended. Citigroup analyst said the Turkish incursion was merely giving the market a psychological lift, adding that US supply, especially for gasoline, was not tight.
· Prices had started the day lower because yesterday's US Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose for the sixth consecutive week, this time by 4.2 mln barrels in the week to Feb 15, shocking traders who had expected crude inventories to rise just 2.6 mln barrels. Gasoline stocks, meanwhile, rose to their highest level since February 1994.
· Earlier this week, however, oil hit a record 101.32 usd per barrel as investment into commodities surged. Such investment is not likely to leave the market just yet, some analysts said.
· Strength in prices across commodities indicates that the rally is likely fuelled by fresh inflow of capital as investors see commodities as an alternative asset class," said Bank of America analysts. Elsewhere, gold and platinum were close to record highs.
· Looking ahead, consumer pressure on OPEC to release more oil at its March 5 meet is likely to grow, but the cartel has repeatedly insisted it is not to blame for the high price. In the group's last two meetings since December 2007 OPEC ministers have chosen to keep production steady at 29.67 mln bpd.
MCX Crude Oil March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3845-50 for the target of 3990 and 4025 with stop loss at 3810
MCX Natural gas March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Sell at 376-79 for the target of 365 and 358 with stop loss at 387
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Base metals intraday
· MCX Copper March rose to two year high of Rs. 337.35 and retrace back towards Rs. 330 per kg following international trend on inventory data and production disruption news all over world.
· MCX Zinc Feb. also followed red metals and traded towards Rs. 101 per kg. MCX Lead traded at Rs. 131.55, MCX Nickel Feb also Rs. 1137
· Copper fell from the highest in almost two years in London as higher prices attracted more metal into stockpiles and deterred buying in China, the world's largest user of the metal. Tin rose to its highest since at least 1989.
· Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York expanded to 199,469 metric tons, the highest since Feb. 8. More shipments may be going to China; Chinese buyers probably ordered metal arriving now in the fourth quarter, when prices were lower.
· Most stockpile increases were reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where inventories jumped by 14,000 tons, or 45 percent, to 45,188 tons from a week ago. On the LME, 6,000 tons of copper arrived in Hull, in the U.K., which is typically not a location favored by European consumers.
· Copper has risen 25 percent this year as usage in China expanded. Imports of refined copper and alloys into the nation gained 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier to 158,073 tons, the customs office said today.
· Imports of copper into China may decline because LME prices are now more expensive than domestic prices,that doesn't imply less consumption overall.
· Aluminum output in China, the world's largest producer, last month fell 7.6 percent to 1.06 million tons, from the preceding month, the lowest since July, the London-based International Aluminium Institute said today on its Web site. The nation produced 958,000 tons in January 2007.
· China's worst snowstorms in 50 years last month delayed transport, caused power outages and forced production cuts at aluminum producers including Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's largest.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 323-25 for the target of 328 and 337 with stop loss at 318
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb:
Buy at 97.00-97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1130-34 for the target of 1158 and 1170 with stop loss at 1120
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March:
Sell at 134.35 for the target of 129 and 126 with stop loss at 137.60
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· MCX Zinc Feb. also followed red metals and traded towards Rs. 101 per kg. MCX Lead traded at Rs. 131.55, MCX Nickel Feb also Rs. 1137
· Copper fell from the highest in almost two years in London as higher prices attracted more metal into stockpiles and deterred buying in China, the world's largest user of the metal. Tin rose to its highest since at least 1989.
· Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York expanded to 199,469 metric tons, the highest since Feb. 8. More shipments may be going to China; Chinese buyers probably ordered metal arriving now in the fourth quarter, when prices were lower.
· Most stockpile increases were reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where inventories jumped by 14,000 tons, or 45 percent, to 45,188 tons from a week ago. On the LME, 6,000 tons of copper arrived in Hull, in the U.K., which is typically not a location favored by European consumers.
· Copper has risen 25 percent this year as usage in China expanded. Imports of refined copper and alloys into the nation gained 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier to 158,073 tons, the customs office said today.
· Imports of copper into China may decline because LME prices are now more expensive than domestic prices,that doesn't imply less consumption overall.
· Aluminum output in China, the world's largest producer, last month fell 7.6 percent to 1.06 million tons, from the preceding month, the lowest since July, the London-based International Aluminium Institute said today on its Web site. The nation produced 958,000 tons in January 2007.
· China's worst snowstorms in 50 years last month delayed transport, caused power outages and forced production cuts at aluminum producers including Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's largest.
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 323-25 for the target of 328 and 337 with stop loss at 318
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb:
Buy at 97.00-97.50 for the target of 102 and 103.50 with stop loss at 95.40
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1130-34 for the target of 1158 and 1170 with stop loss at 1120
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March:
Sell at 134.35 for the target of 129 and 126 with stop loss at 137.60
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Bullion intraday
· Gold, little changed in London, headed for its biggest weekly advance in 19 months as lower U.S. interest rates may revive investor demand for the metal as an alternative to the dollar. Platinum dropped from a record.
· MCC Gold April traded bullish on Friday and Saturday closed near Rs. 12104 following bullish trend during week. MCX Silver March also followed the movement and traded near Rs. 22130.
· International spot gold closed at 944.50 and silver closed at $17.99
· The dollar declined to a three-week low against the euro on speculation U.S. economic growth will slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Gold has climbed 45 percent since the Fed in August announced a policy shift to contain the subprime mortgage collapse.
· Gold imports in India, the world's biggest gold consumer, have slumped every month since October, according to figures from the Bombay Bullion Association. Gold has risen every month except November for the past seven months.
· The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials is up 14 percent this year, led by gains in lead, sugar, soybean oil and cocoa.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Gold and Silver eased in spot markets on end of week profit booking following the huge gains recorded during the week. The underlying sentiment across the precious metals, however, continues to be bullish.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (.999) rose by Rs 30 to finish at Rs 12,230 per 10 gm and Rs 12,285/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos and traded volumes were 100 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,540/kg, down by Rs 15. Arrivals in silver were at 150 kilos.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) rose by Rs 60 to end at Rs 12,240/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 55 to end at Rs 12,290/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,700/kg, plunging by Rs 1,050.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) increased by Rs 50 to close at Rs 12,200/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 30 to close at Rs 12,250/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) declined by Rs 150 to end at Rs 22,150/kg.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12010-30 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920
MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22870 to 22900 for the target of 23300 and 23500 with stop loss at 22680
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· MCC Gold April traded bullish on Friday and Saturday closed near Rs. 12104 following bullish trend during week. MCX Silver March also followed the movement and traded near Rs. 22130.
· International spot gold closed at 944.50 and silver closed at $17.99
· The dollar declined to a three-week low against the euro on speculation U.S. economic growth will slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Gold has climbed 45 percent since the Fed in August announced a policy shift to contain the subprime mortgage collapse.
· Gold imports in India, the world's biggest gold consumer, have slumped every month since October, according to figures from the Bombay Bullion Association. Gold has risen every month except November for the past seven months.
· The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials is up 14 percent this year, led by gains in lead, sugar, soybean oil and cocoa.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Gold and Silver eased in spot markets on end of week profit booking following the huge gains recorded during the week. The underlying sentiment across the precious metals, however, continues to be bullish.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) and gold (.999) rose by Rs 30 to finish at Rs 12,230 per 10 gm and Rs 12,285/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos and traded volumes were 100 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,540/kg, down by Rs 15. Arrivals in silver were at 150 kilos.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) rose by Rs 60 to end at Rs 12,240/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 55 to end at Rs 12,290/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,700/kg, plunging by Rs 1,050.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) increased by Rs 50 to close at Rs 12,200/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 30 to close at Rs 12,250/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) declined by Rs 150 to end at Rs 22,150/kg.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12010-30 for target of 12210 and 12330 with stop loss at 11920
MCX Silver Mar
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22870 to 22900 for the target of 23300 and 23500 with stop loss at 22680
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3915 BEARISH BELOW 3935
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12124 BEARISH BELOW 12085
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23185 BEARISH BELOW 23087
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 334.90 BEARISH BELOW 333.80
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 131.75 BEARISH BELOW 131.20
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1139 BEARISH BELOW 1132
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.70 BEARISH BELOW 98.20
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12124 BEARISH BELOW 12085
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 23185 BEARISH BELOW 23087
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 334.90 BEARISH BELOW 333.80
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 131.75 BEARISH BELOW 131.20
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1139 BEARISH BELOW 1132
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.70 BEARISH BELOW 98.20
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9994500540
Long view
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 344-347 UPTO 350 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 338, AND CLOSE ABOVE 351 TEST 360-65 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 302.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 137-139-141 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 134.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 128.5 TEST 124 ATLEAST
(MAR)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 344-347 UPTO 350 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 338, AND CLOSE ABOVE 351 TEST 360-65 ATLEAST, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 302.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN TEST 297-293 ATLEAST(FEB)
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 137-139-141 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 134.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 128.5 TEST 124 ATLEAST
(MAR)
MCXARUN
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Safe trade
GOLD
OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12150 & more abv 12175 S/L 12130 and T/p 12250 atleast upto 12300 OR buy ard 11950-60 S/L 11940 and T/p 12025-12060 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/ 10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725/23025, for the day buy only abv 23200 S/L 23110 and T/p 23275-300/ 400 upto 23500 OR buy ard 22925-40 S/L 22900 and T/p 23000-40/23100 (any time close below 22650/21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23200 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L hit, for the day buy only abv 3940 S/L 3920 and T/p 3965-3985/sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 OR buy ard 3865-70 S/L 3860 and T/p 3900-3920 (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day buy only abv 335.5 S/L 334 and T/p 337-338/sustain abv 338 test 343-45 atleast upto 347 OR buy ard 328.8-329.2 S/L 328 and T/p 331.5-333.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 325.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/278/ 270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12150 & more abv 12175 S/L 12130 and T/p 12250 atleast upto 12300 OR buy ard 11950-60 S/L 11940 and T/p 12025-12060 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/ 10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725/23025, for the day buy only abv 23200 S/L 23110 and T/p 23275-300/ 400 upto 23500 OR buy ard 22925-40 S/L 22900 and T/p 23000-40/23100 (any time close below 22650/21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 23200 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L hit, for the day buy only abv 3940 S/L 3920 and T/p 3965-3985/sustain abv 3985-4000 test 4075 atleast upto 4100 OR buy ard 3865-70 S/L 3860 and T/p 3900-3920 (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day buy only abv 335.5 S/L 334 and T/p 337-338/sustain abv 338 test 343-45 atleast upto 347 OR buy ard 328.8-329.2 S/L 328 and T/p 331.5-333.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 325.5/315.5/302.5/286.5/278/ 270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Silver and copper March futures expiry will be the key this week. Copper has zoomed while silver continues to under perform. When 2008 started, there were apprehensions on base metals demand which resulted in a build up of short positions. However in the beginning of February when it became clear that base metals demand may not fall as much, the short positions in base metals were converted into long positions. The continuous decline in LME stocks added to investment demand in base metals. Base metals are bullish in the medium term. LME copper can rise to $9000 while LME nickel can rise over $40,000 over the coming months. However I will be cautious going long in base metals at the current levels as there is too hype much over base metals demand.
Another thing to watch out this week is whether the Euro/USD is able to break 1.50. The Eurozone economy has shown mild resilience to the US slowdown which could result in the European central bank delaying its interest rate reduction beyond June. Euro/USD has to break 1.50 in the next fortnight and failure to do so result in 1.4325 and 1.4036. A weaker US dollar always supports gold.
The technical picture in gold, silver and copper is still bullish. Metals have fallen as and when they neared key technical supports. Geopolitical risk has resurfaced once again with the Turkish invasion on northern Iraq and Iran unable to answer united nations questions on the nuclear issue. Turkey, Iran and Iraq are still at a nascent stage but have the potential to blow up further.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$944.0
Gold has to break $959-$965 zone for $978 and $989. Key support at $942, $931.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.52
Only a break of $102 will result in $107 and $112. Key weekly support at $95.31 and $97.52.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Another thing to watch out this week is whether the Euro/USD is able to break 1.50. The Eurozone economy has shown mild resilience to the US slowdown which could result in the European central bank delaying its interest rate reduction beyond June. Euro/USD has to break 1.50 in the next fortnight and failure to do so result in 1.4325 and 1.4036. A weaker US dollar always supports gold.
The technical picture in gold, silver and copper is still bullish. Metals have fallen as and when they neared key technical supports. Geopolitical risk has resurfaced once again with the Turkish invasion on northern Iraq and Iran unable to answer united nations questions on the nuclear issue. Turkey, Iran and Iraq are still at a nascent stage but have the potential to blow up further.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$944.0
Gold has to break $959-$965 zone for $978 and $989. Key support at $942, $931.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.52
Only a break of $102 will result in $107 and $112. Key weekly support at $95.31 and $97.52.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, February 22, 2008
Brokerage expectations from 2008/09 budget
MUMBAI, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Following is a snapshot of
analysts' expectations from the federal budget compiled from
brokerage reports.
Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram will present
the budget for 2008/09 on Feb 29.
AUTOMOBILES
------------
- Uniform excise duty rates of 16 percent for all cars, large
and small.
- Reduction in excise duty on two wheelers to 12 or 8 percent
from 16 percent.
- Reduction in the excise duty on buses to 16 percent from 24
percent.
BANKING
---------
- Raising FII/FDI limit in state-run banks to 49 percent from
20 percent.
- Relaxation in the lock-in period to three years from five
years for bank deposits to qualify for tax benefits.
- Interest earned on long-term lending to infrastructure
industries to be exempted from income tax.
CAPITAL GOODS
-------------
- Reduction in excise duty on air conditioners meeting energy
efficiency guidelines to 8 percent from 16 percent.
- Reduction in excise duty on power equipment to 8 percent
from 16 percent.
- Rationalisation of tax structures with respect to dividend
paid by subsidiaries and special purpose vehicles.
CEMENT
-------
- Abolish the 5 percent import duty on coal and pet coke.
- Value Added Tax on cement and clinker be reduced and
brought in line with similar construction materials, like steel,
to 4 percent from 12.5 percent.
CONSUMER GOODS
--------------
- Excise exemption on biscuits similar to other food mixes
granted exemption in the last budget.
- Reduction in excise duty on processed foods to 8 percent
from 16 percent.
FERTILISER
----------
- Removal or reduction of customs duties on inputs like
liquefied natural gas.
- Reduction in customs duty on sulphuric acid to 5 percent
from 7.5 percent.
- General sales tax exemption for basic raw materials like
natural gas, naphtha, etc.
- Reduction in excise duty on pesticides to 8 percent from 16
percent.
HEALTHCARE
----------
- Infrastructure status for hospitals with certain
eligibility norms.
- Relaxation of income tax for mergers and acquisitions with
conditions.
HOTELS
-------
- Raising depreciation on hotel buildings to 20 percent from
10 percent.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
----------------------
- Extension of Software Technology Park scheme, which is set
to end by 2008/09.
- Reduction in excise duty on personal computers to 8 percent
from 12 percent.
- Abolish excise duty of 8 percent on packaged software sold
over the counter.
LOGISTICS
----------
- Infrastructure status for warehousing and shipping
industry.
MEDIA
-----
- Abolish custom duty on digital exhibition equipment.
- Abolish 16 percent excice duty on set-top boxes.
METALS
-------
- Reduce excise duty on long steel products to 8 percent from
16 percent.
- Abolish 5 percent customs duty on import of scrap.
- Increase in export tax to 2,500 rupees per tonne from 1,500
rupees on key raw materials for steel.
OIL & GAS
----------
- Cut in excise duty on petrol and diesel.
- Removal of service tax on exploration activities.
PHARMACEUTICALS
---------------
- Reduction in maximum retail price-based excise duty to 8 or
12 percent from 16 percent.
- Excise duty exemption for all the 354 drugs specified in
the national list of essential medicines.
- Research & development tax exemption given to generic
pharmaceutical companies to be extended to the hived off, pure
play R&D companies.
- Life saving drugs to be exempted from customs duty of 5-10
percent.
POWER
------
- Extension of tax holidays for ultra-mega power projects
till 2017.
- Easing external commercial borrowing norms to enable
mobilisation of funds from abroad.
- Income tax exemptions for power infrastrcture bonds.
- Cut in excise duty on power equipment and other inputs to 8
percent from 16 percent.
RETAIL
--------
- Industry status to retail.
REAL ESTATE
------------
- Lowering the foreign direct investment threshold below
50,000 square-feet.
- Uniformity in stamp duty across states.
- Clarity on norms governing real estate investment trusts
with adequate tax benefits similar to mutual funds.
SUGAR
------
- Lowering of excise duty on ethanol to give a boost to the
mandatory blending with petrol.
- Uniform and lower sales tax among states.
- Excise duty structure on molasses of 750 rupees per tonne
to be replaced with an ad-valorem duty structure.
TEXTILES
---------
- Reduction of excise duty on man-made yarn to 4 percent from
8 percent.
- To allow contract labour.
- Reduction in license fees to a uniform 6 percent of
adjusted gross revenue.
- Removal of customs duty for telecoms equipment from the
current rates of 4-37 percent.
- Exemption of service tax on broadband services for the next
five years.
Collated from the reports of following brokerages: Batlivala &
Karani Securities, Edelweiss Securities, Kotak Securities,
Religare Securities and Sharekhan.
MCXARUN
9994500540
analysts' expectations from the federal budget compiled from
brokerage reports.
Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram will present
the budget for 2008/09 on Feb 29.
AUTOMOBILES
------------
- Uniform excise duty rates of 16 percent for all cars, large
and small.
- Reduction in excise duty on two wheelers to 12 or 8 percent
from 16 percent.
- Reduction in the excise duty on buses to 16 percent from 24
percent.
BANKING
---------
- Raising FII/FDI limit in state-run banks to 49 percent from
20 percent.
- Relaxation in the lock-in period to three years from five
years for bank deposits to qualify for tax benefits.
- Interest earned on long-term lending to infrastructure
industries to be exempted from income tax.
CAPITAL GOODS
-------------
- Reduction in excise duty on air conditioners meeting energy
efficiency guidelines to 8 percent from 16 percent.
- Reduction in excise duty on power equipment to 8 percent
from 16 percent.
- Rationalisation of tax structures with respect to dividend
paid by subsidiaries and special purpose vehicles.
CEMENT
-------
- Abolish the 5 percent import duty on coal and pet coke.
- Value Added Tax on cement and clinker be reduced and
brought in line with similar construction materials, like steel,
to 4 percent from 12.5 percent.
CONSUMER GOODS
--------------
- Excise exemption on biscuits similar to other food mixes
granted exemption in the last budget.
- Reduction in excise duty on processed foods to 8 percent
from 16 percent.
FERTILISER
----------
- Removal or reduction of customs duties on inputs like
liquefied natural gas.
- Reduction in customs duty on sulphuric acid to 5 percent
from 7.5 percent.
- General sales tax exemption for basic raw materials like
natural gas, naphtha, etc.
- Reduction in excise duty on pesticides to 8 percent from 16
percent.
HEALTHCARE
----------
- Infrastructure status for hospitals with certain
eligibility norms.
- Relaxation of income tax for mergers and acquisitions with
conditions.
HOTELS
-------
- Raising depreciation on hotel buildings to 20 percent from
10 percent.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
----------------------
- Extension of Software Technology Park scheme, which is set
to end by 2008/09.
- Reduction in excise duty on personal computers to 8 percent
from 12 percent.
- Abolish excise duty of 8 percent on packaged software sold
over the counter.
LOGISTICS
----------
- Infrastructure status for warehousing and shipping
industry.
MEDIA
-----
- Abolish custom duty on digital exhibition equipment.
- Abolish 16 percent excice duty on set-top boxes.
METALS
-------
- Reduce excise duty on long steel products to 8 percent from
16 percent.
- Abolish 5 percent customs duty on import of scrap.
- Increase in export tax to 2,500 rupees per tonne from 1,500
rupees on key raw materials for steel.
OIL & GAS
----------
- Cut in excise duty on petrol and diesel.
- Removal of service tax on exploration activities.
PHARMACEUTICALS
---------------
- Reduction in maximum retail price-based excise duty to 8 or
12 percent from 16 percent.
- Excise duty exemption for all the 354 drugs specified in
the national list of essential medicines.
- Research & development tax exemption given to generic
pharmaceutical companies to be extended to the hived off, pure
play R&D companies.
- Life saving drugs to be exempted from customs duty of 5-10
percent.
POWER
------
- Extension of tax holidays for ultra-mega power projects
till 2017.
- Easing external commercial borrowing norms to enable
mobilisation of funds from abroad.
- Income tax exemptions for power infrastrcture bonds.
- Cut in excise duty on power equipment and other inputs to 8
percent from 16 percent.
RETAIL
--------
- Industry status to retail.
REAL ESTATE
------------
- Lowering the foreign direct investment threshold below
50,000 square-feet.
- Uniformity in stamp duty across states.
- Clarity on norms governing real estate investment trusts
with adequate tax benefits similar to mutual funds.
SUGAR
------
- Lowering of excise duty on ethanol to give a boost to the
mandatory blending with petrol.
- Uniform and lower sales tax among states.
- Excise duty structure on molasses of 750 rupees per tonne
to be replaced with an ad-valorem duty structure.
TEXTILES
---------
- Reduction of excise duty on man-made yarn to 4 percent from
8 percent.
- To allow contract labour.
- Reduction in license fees to a uniform 6 percent of
adjusted gross revenue.
- Removal of customs duty for telecoms equipment from the
current rates of 4-37 percent.
- Exemption of service tax on broadband services for the next
five years.
Collated from the reports of following brokerages: Batlivala &
Karani Securities, Edelweiss Securities, Kotak Securities,
Religare Securities and Sharekhan.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy intraday
· Crude oil rose inNew York on speculation global demand will continue to grow after prices reached a record.
· Global oil demand will rise 1.7 million barrels a day to 87.6 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Feb. 13. The U.S. Energy Department and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also expect daily consumption to rise by more than 1 million barrels this year.
· The IEA, the adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, predicted Nov. 7 that Chinese and Indian oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply crunch as soon as 2015.
· Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Feb. 15.
· Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 39,922 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 12,474 contracts, or 45 percent, from a week earlier.
· Reports of explosion at Alon USA Energy Inc.'s Big Spring refinery in Texas on Monday sent crude futures higher. As per Dow Jones newswires report, a person familiar with the plant said Tuesday that full restart of the 70000 bpd refinery could take over six months.
· Despite calls to raise output, some Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output at its March 5 meet taking into consideration weakening economy and demand prospects and rising inventories. Iran this week said that a cut in output cannot be ruled out.
· After U.S. President and International Energy Agency, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday reiterated calls for Opec to increase crude production to boost the world's small capacity cushion, as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
· Concerns about supply from Nigeria rose after Nigeria's Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, promised renewed attacks on oil facilities if the country's government did not explain whether Henry Okah, the group's supposed leader, had been killed in a military hospital as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
Weekly Inventory Update:
· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks rose by 4.2 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.6 mln barrel rise.
· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell 4.5 mln barrels against expectations for a fall of 950,000 barrels. Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period.
· Gasoline stocks rose above analysts' expectations, rising by 1.1 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 450,000 barrels.
· Refineries meanwhile operated at 83.5 pct of their capacity, the EIA said lower than 85.1 pct in the previous week. Analysts had expected a drop of 0.2 percentage points.
MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3900 for the target of 3980 and 4020 with stop loss at 3876
MCX Natural gas March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Buy at 354 for the target of 365 and 372 with stop loss at 351
MCXARUN
9994500540
· Global oil demand will rise 1.7 million barrels a day to 87.6 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Feb. 13. The U.S. Energy Department and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also expect daily consumption to rise by more than 1 million barrels this year.
· The IEA, the adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, predicted Nov. 7 that Chinese and Indian oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply crunch as soon as 2015.
· Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Feb. 15.
· Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 39,922 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 12,474 contracts, or 45 percent, from a week earlier.
· Reports of explosion at Alon USA Energy Inc.'s Big Spring refinery in Texas on Monday sent crude futures higher. As per Dow Jones newswires report, a person familiar with the plant said Tuesday that full restart of the 70000 bpd refinery could take over six months.
· Despite calls to raise output, some Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output at its March 5 meet taking into consideration weakening economy and demand prospects and rising inventories. Iran this week said that a cut in output cannot be ruled out.
· After U.S. President and International Energy Agency, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday reiterated calls for Opec to increase crude production to boost the world's small capacity cushion, as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
· Concerns about supply from Nigeria rose after Nigeria's Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, promised renewed attacks on oil facilities if the country's government did not explain whether Henry Okah, the group's supposed leader, had been killed in a military hospital as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
Weekly Inventory Update:
· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks rose by 4.2 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.6 mln barrel rise.
· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell 4.5 mln barrels against expectations for a fall of 950,000 barrels. Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period.
· Gasoline stocks rose above analysts' expectations, rising by 1.1 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 450,000 barrels.
· Refineries meanwhile operated at 83.5 pct of their capacity, the EIA said lower than 85.1 pct in the previous week. Analysts had expected a drop of 0.2 percentage points.
MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3900 for the target of 3980 and 4020 with stop loss at 3876
MCX Natural gas March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Buy at 354 for the target of 365 and 372 with stop loss at 351
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals intraday
· Basemetals moved up on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on fund buying and gaining strength from robust gold and oil. MCX Copper most active February is currently trading at Rs 334.40/kg, up by Rs 8.40/kg. It tossed in the range Rs 327.30-336/kg. Nickel february contract traded at Rs 1149/kg, rising by Rs 32/kg. Zinc most active February contract is currently trading at Rs 100.10/kg, up by Rs 4.10/kg.
· On Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper most active May contract settled at CNY67,110/tonne, up CNY440/tonne, registering gains for the fourth straight day in a row.
· Zinc prices surged in Asia on speculation supply may lag behind demand after China's worst snowstorms in decades reduced output in the world's largest producer of the metal.
· Output cuts at smelters, including the country's largest producer Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., have driven zinc prices up 11 percent in the past month. Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co. cut output since Jan. 29 because of power shortages, the Yunnan province-based company said today. Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. said yesterday it has reduced output since Feb. 11.
· Western Mining Co., which mines zinc, lead and copper inChina, plans to buy 93 million yuan worth of zinc and indium ingots from a smelter inChina'sQinghai province to meet deliveries. The company will buy 3,800 tons of zinc and 5,618 kilograms of indium ingots from Qinghai Summit Zinc Co., the China Securities Journal reported Feb. 18.
· LME-monitored inventories fell 2,250 tons to 135,375 tons, the lowest since Oct. 10. They have declined 31 percent this year. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they were at 179,244 tons, a level last seen October 2006. They averaged 3.5 days of global consumption, compared with last year's 4.9 days average
· Copper was in deficit by 161,000 tons in 2007, a swing from a surplus of 278,000 tons, according to data released yesterday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Demand in China, the world's largest user, increased to 4.861 million tons, 35 percent more than a year ago, the Ware, England-based group said.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 328 for the target of 336 and 339 with stop loss at 325.50
MCX Zinc Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb:
MCX Nickel Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Feb: Buy at 1125-30 for the target of 1165 and 1175 with stop loss at 1113
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Feb: Buy at 130 for the target of 135 and 139 with stop loss at 127.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
· On Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper most active May contract settled at CNY67,110/tonne, up CNY440/tonne, registering gains for the fourth straight day in a row.
· Zinc prices surged in Asia on speculation supply may lag behind demand after China's worst snowstorms in decades reduced output in the world's largest producer of the metal.
· Output cuts at smelters, including the country's largest producer Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., have driven zinc prices up 11 percent in the past month. Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co. cut output since Jan. 29 because of power shortages, the Yunnan province-based company said today. Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. said yesterday it has reduced output since Feb. 11.
· Western Mining Co., which mines zinc, lead and copper inChina, plans to buy 93 million yuan worth of zinc and indium ingots from a smelter inChina'sQinghai province to meet deliveries. The company will buy 3,800 tons of zinc and 5,618 kilograms of indium ingots from Qinghai Summit Zinc Co., the China Securities Journal reported Feb. 18.
· LME-monitored inventories fell 2,250 tons to 135,375 tons, the lowest since Oct. 10. They have declined 31 percent this year. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they were at 179,244 tons, a level last seen October 2006. They averaged 3.5 days of global consumption, compared with last year's 4.9 days average
· Copper was in deficit by 161,000 tons in 2007, a swing from a surplus of 278,000 tons, according to data released yesterday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Demand in China, the world's largest user, increased to 4.861 million tons, 35 percent more than a year ago, the Ware, England-based group said.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 328 for the target of 336 and 339 with stop loss at 325.50
MCX Zinc Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb:
MCX Nickel Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Feb: Buy at 1125-30 for the target of 1165 and 1175 with stop loss at 1113
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Feb: Buy at 130 for the target of 135 and 139 with stop loss at 127.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
· Gold futures rose to a record $958.40 an ounce as a slumping dollar and soaring commodity costs boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an inflation hedge. Silver rose to the highest since 1980. April gold is trading at new contract highs, encouraged that today's poor economic news will help the Fed keep interest rates low. May copper is also trading at new contract highs.
· MCX Gold April rose to a high near Rs. 12171 per 10 gram and MCX Silver March touched the high near Rs. 23020 following international clues.
· International spot gold touched high near $ 954 and Silver registered days high near $18.06 following fund buy and weak dollar movement, rising crude oil prices also supported the movement.
· Gold has more than tripled in price during a seven-year rally. The metal surged 31 percent in 2007 as the Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest-rate cuts aimed at bolstering the economy, while inflation rose at the fastest pace since 1990. Fed policy makers intend to keep rates low ``for a time,'' minutes from their meetings showed yesterday.
· The federal-funds rate is at 3 percent, down from 5.25 percent in mid-September. Gold has gained 31 percent since Sept. 18, when the central bank started cutting borrowing costs. Interest-rate futures show a 92 percent chance the Fed will lower the benchmark rate to 2.5 percent by March 18, compared with a 70 percent chance a week ago.
· Last year, consumer prices rose 4.1 percent, the most since 1990. A dollar index, a measure against a weighted basket of the yen, euro and pound and three other major currencies, fell to 74.484 on Nov. 23, the lowest since the currency index started trading in 1973.
· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has risen 0.5 percent to 631 metric tons this year. It reached a record 653 metric tons on Jan. 14.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals rose in spot markets as sentiments turned bullish following the gains in crude oil.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 195 to finish at Rs 12,200 per 10 gm and gold (.999) by Rs 155 at Rs 12,255/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 200 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,555/kg, up by Rs 420. Arrivals in silver were at 350 kilos.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) edged higher by Rs 170 to end at Rs 12,180/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 175 to end at Rs 12,235/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,750/kg, up by Rs 1,600.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) elevated by Rs 170 to close at Rs 12,150/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 180 to close at Rs 12,220/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,300/kg, up by Rs 460.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Sell at 12140-060 for the target of 12100 and 12000 with stop loss at 12184
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22950 for the target of 22850 and 227500 with stop loss at 23190
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Gold April rose to a high near Rs. 12171 per 10 gram and MCX Silver March touched the high near Rs. 23020 following international clues.
· International spot gold touched high near $ 954 and Silver registered days high near $18.06 following fund buy and weak dollar movement, rising crude oil prices also supported the movement.
· Gold has more than tripled in price during a seven-year rally. The metal surged 31 percent in 2007 as the Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest-rate cuts aimed at bolstering the economy, while inflation rose at the fastest pace since 1990. Fed policy makers intend to keep rates low ``for a time,'' minutes from their meetings showed yesterday.
· The federal-funds rate is at 3 percent, down from 5.25 percent in mid-September. Gold has gained 31 percent since Sept. 18, when the central bank started cutting borrowing costs. Interest-rate futures show a 92 percent chance the Fed will lower the benchmark rate to 2.5 percent by March 18, compared with a 70 percent chance a week ago.
· Last year, consumer prices rose 4.1 percent, the most since 1990. A dollar index, a measure against a weighted basket of the yen, euro and pound and three other major currencies, fell to 74.484 on Nov. 23, the lowest since the currency index started trading in 1973.
· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has risen 0.5 percent to 631 metric tons this year. It reached a record 653 metric tons on Jan. 14.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals rose in spot markets as sentiments turned bullish following the gains in crude oil.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 195 to finish at Rs 12,200 per 10 gm and gold (.999) by Rs 155 at Rs 12,255/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 200 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,555/kg, up by Rs 420. Arrivals in silver were at 350 kilos.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) edged higher by Rs 170 to end at Rs 12,180/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 175 to end at Rs 12,235/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,750/kg, up by Rs 1,600.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) elevated by Rs 170 to close at Rs 12,150/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 180 to close at Rs 12,220/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,300/kg, up by Rs 460.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Sell at 12140-060 for the target of 12100 and 12000 with stop loss at 12184
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22950 for the target of 22850 and 227500 with stop loss at 23190
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3897 BEARISH BELOW 3880
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12106 BEARISH BELOW 12055
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22890 BEARISH BELOW 22790
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 333.10 BEARISH BELOW 332
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 132.50 BEARISH BELOW 132.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1143 BEARISH BELOW 1136
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.90 BEARISH BELOW 98.50
MCXARUN
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12106 BEARISH BELOW 12055
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22890 BEARISH BELOW 22790
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 333.10 BEARISH BELOW 332
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 132.50 BEARISH BELOW 132.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1143 BEARISH BELOW 1136
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.90 BEARISH BELOW 98.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
For safe trade
GOLD
OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12175 S/L 12150 and T/p 12225-250 upto 12300 OR buy ard 11900-910 S/L 11890 and T/p 11950-970/12025 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725, for the day buy only abv 23025 S/L 22940 and T/p 23125-200 upto 23300 OR buy ard 22525-40 S/L 22500 and T/p 22625-750/22850 (any time close below 21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/18625/ 18250/18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 23025-23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L hit, for the day buy ard 3845-48 S/L 3840 and T/p 3895-3910/3935 OR sell ard 3922-26 S/L 3930 and T/p 3900-3880, now only sustain abv 3960 & 3990 uprally again to test 4050 atleast upto 4100 in days to come (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day sell ard 336.8-337.25 S/L 337.5 and T/p 334.5-332 OR buy ard 327.8-328 S/L 327 and T/p 330-332 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 315.5/302.5/286.5/278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12175 S/L 12150 and T/p 12225-250 upto 12300 OR buy ard 11900-910 S/L 11890 and T/p 11950-970/12025 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725, for the day buy only abv 23025 S/L 22940 and T/p 23125-200 upto 23300 OR buy ard 22525-40 S/L 22500 and T/p 22625-750/22850 (any time close below 21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/18625/ 18250/18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 23025-23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L hit, for the day buy ard 3845-48 S/L 3840 and T/p 3895-3910/3935 OR sell ard 3922-26 S/L 3930 and T/p 3900-3880, now only sustain abv 3960 & 3990 uprally again to test 4050 atleast upto 4100 in days to come (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day sell ard 336.8-337.25 S/L 337.5 and T/p 334.5-332 OR buy ard 327.8-328 S/L 327 and T/p 330-332 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 315.5/302.5/286.5/278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
mcx charts
MCX gold day chart
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MCX silver day chart
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MCXARUN
9994500540
click the chart to enlarge
MCX silver day chart
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MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy Futures
Crude Oil:
Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.67 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.86 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.86 - Highest High in last 10-Days
100.28 - High
100.13 - Last Price
100.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
99.84 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
99.66 - Low
96.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
95.00 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.92 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.94 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
91.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
88.82 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.24 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.06 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
81.60 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.77). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.77 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
9.110 - Highest High in last 50-Days
9.110 - Highest High in last 10-Days
9.067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.975 - High
8.958 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.933 - Last Price
8.909 - Low
8.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.607 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.188 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.971 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.879 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.879 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.683 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.483 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.228 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.67 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.86 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.86 - Highest High in last 10-Days
100.28 - High
100.13 - Last Price
100.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
99.84 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
99.66 - Low
96.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
95.00 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.92 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.94 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
91.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
88.82 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.24 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.06 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
81.60 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.77). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.77 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
9.110 - Highest High in last 50-Days
9.110 - Highest High in last 10-Days
9.067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.975 - High
8.958 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.933 - Last Price
8.909 - Low
8.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.607 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.188 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.971 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.879 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.879 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.683 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.483 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.228 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper Futures
Copper:
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 71.51). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 71.51 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.7882 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.7535 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.7535 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.7535 - High
3.7525 - Last Price
3.7282 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.7175 - Low
3.6016 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.5838 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3663 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3648 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2912 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2760 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.2402 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2283 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0417 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 71.51). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 71.51 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.7882 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.7535 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.7535 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.7535 - High
3.7525 - Last Price
3.7282 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.7175 - Low
3.6016 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.5838 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3663 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3648 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2912 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2760 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.2402 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2283 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0417 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Precious Metals Futures
COMEX Gold:
Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Bearish momentum has also been confirmed by the MACD, which has issued a bearish signal. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 65.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 65.56 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
949.20 - Highest High in last 50-Days
949.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
948.50 - High
944.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
943.80 - Last Price
941.00 - Low
937.13 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
931.41 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
920.86 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
911.31 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
905.80 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
899.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
892.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
878.16 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
832.85 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
756.16 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
17.945 - High
17.945 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.945 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.870 - Last Price
17.868 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
17.785 - Low
17.713 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
17.437 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
17.347 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.804 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.577 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
16.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.146 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.956 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.127 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.028 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Bearish momentum has also been confirmed by the MACD, which has issued a bearish signal. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 65.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 65.56 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
949.20 - Highest High in last 50-Days
949.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
948.50 - High
944.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
943.80 - Last Price
941.00 - Low
937.13 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
931.41 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
920.86 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
911.31 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
905.80 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
899.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
892.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
878.16 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
832.85 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
756.16 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
17.945 - High
17.945 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.945 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.870 - Last Price
17.868 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
17.785 - Low
17.713 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
17.437 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
17.347 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.804 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.577 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
16.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.146 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.956 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.127 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.028 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
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