GOLD
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070" ACHIEVED AS TURN FROM DAYS HIGH=12165. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 12050 S/L 12090 and T/p 12010-11975/11850/11775/ below down rally sharp OR buy only abv 12230 S/L 12200 and T/p 12270-300/ 12375 where strong Resistance seen again (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resist of 16450/16830 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16200, for the day sell only below 15850 S/L 15930 and T/p 15775-700/close below 15775 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16320-330 S/L 16350 and T/p 16225-150 (any time close below 15775 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2750-2730, for the day sell only below 2590 S/L 2610 and T/p 2570-2550 OR sell ard 1704-8 S/L 2715 and T/p 2675-70 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/3040/ 3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2590 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 180, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50/178, for the day sell only below 173.5 S/L 175 and T/p 171-170/towards 165 in coming days OR sell ard 179.8-180.2 S/L 180.5 and T/p 178-5/177.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 173.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, November 21, 2008
gold outlook
Gold held steady for US and Japanese investors early Thursday, and leapt for everyone else, as a fresh spike in the currency value of Dollars and Yen – both used to fund leveraged speculation during 2001-2007 – matched new losses in world equity markets.
"Global assets keep deflating, inflation is falling faster than expected," writes Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank in Johannesburg in his Gold Market note today.
"We've become convinced that we'll see a series of aggressive interest rate cuts, especially in the Eurozone and UK...Standard Bank maintains that the bias for the Dollar is towards strengthening in the next three months, and erratically so."
After the S&P on Wall Street closed Wednesday at a new five-year low, Tokyo's Nikkei ended today nearly 7% lower – more than 1,400 points down for Nov. so far – as the Japanese Yen gained 5% against the Euro in violent trade.
Here in London, the FTSE100 tumbled through the 4,000 mark – a 41-month low first hit in mid-Oct. – while the Pound lost almost three US cents from Wednesday's brief high.
For French, German and Italian investors wanting to Buy Gold today, the price moved up to a 3-week high of €597.
The Gold Price in Sterling jumped back above £500 an ounce.
"Gold [was] one of the few assets remaining that could be sold at a reasonable price to meet margin calls on other, worse-performing assets," explained the World Gold Council (WGC) in its latest quarterly report Wednesday, pointing to the apparent failure of Gold's Safe Haven Role during Sept. and Oct.
The WGC reports a record 121% jump in physical gold investment worldwide during the third-quarter of this year.
Global gold-market supplies, in contrast, fell by 9.7% year-on-year, led by a sharp drop in central bank gold sales.
"The rate of physical Gold Buying has been impressive, and supply remains constrained," agrees the latest Fortis Metals Monthly from Virtual Metals, the London-based consultancy.
On the supply side, "dehedging [by Gold Mining firms] continues to fade and central bank sales are very weak," it says.
"Perhaps when institutional investors, such as hedge funds, have stopped liquidating their holdings, the price will gain. But it needs to do so soon to be convincing."
In the broader raw materials market, meantime, forced sales to cover losses elsewhere have squashed commodity-fund investments by one half, Virtual Metals goes on, since peaking above $200 billion in June.
Today crude oil fell towards $53 per barrel, base metals sold off hard, and "safe haven" government bonds rose yet again, pushing the yield offered by 10-year US Treasury debt down to 3.27%.
Yesterday's US consumer-price data put the headline inflation rate at 3.7% year-on-year. Stripping out "volatile" food & energy prices, core CPI – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure – stood 2.2% higher from 12 months earlier, and precisely in line with core US inflation's average growth over the last 10 years.
Even so, "The largest headline CPI decline in the US in years implies to me that [while] gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn't look like there is any inflation in the short term to hedge," reckons Bart Melek, commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets, speaking to Canada's National Post.
Put another way, "There's absolutely no need to Buy Gold as a hedge against inflation," claimed Peter Fertig at Dresdner Kleinwort in Hainburg, Germany to Bloomberg News earlier this week.
Physical gold investors disagree, however, while central banks the world over continue to battle the risk of deflation with record-low interest rates and strong money-supply growth.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today slashed its lending rate by an unprecedented 1.0% to just 1.0% in an unscheduled move.
"More aggressive easing...should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome," agreed the US Federal Reserve at its most recent policy meeting, minutes released on Wednesday show.
The US monetary base (meaning currency in circulation and bank deposits held at the Federal Reserve) has expanded by more than 70% in the last two months, creating more cash inside nine weeks than existed in total seven years ago.
Growth in the Bank of England's broad "M4" measure of the UK money supply meantime swelled by 15.1% in October – an 18-year record – figures showed this morning.
New private-sector borrowing rose faster still, up by 16.1% year-on-year thanks to a record monthly expansion of £52.8 billion ($79.2bn), even as the supply of credit to households and business dried up.
The vast bulk of new credit creation, according to Bank of England data, is going instead to non-bank financial corporations – in particular brokers, exchanges and clearing houses needing large cash positions to use as a "fire break" in case of a major counter-party default.
All told, these "other financial corporations" accounted for more than 96% of new UK borrowing in Sept.
MCXARUN
9994500540
"Global assets keep deflating, inflation is falling faster than expected," writes Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank in Johannesburg in his Gold Market note today.
"We've become convinced that we'll see a series of aggressive interest rate cuts, especially in the Eurozone and UK...Standard Bank maintains that the bias for the Dollar is towards strengthening in the next three months, and erratically so."
After the S&P on Wall Street closed Wednesday at a new five-year low, Tokyo's Nikkei ended today nearly 7% lower – more than 1,400 points down for Nov. so far – as the Japanese Yen gained 5% against the Euro in violent trade.
Here in London, the FTSE100 tumbled through the 4,000 mark – a 41-month low first hit in mid-Oct. – while the Pound lost almost three US cents from Wednesday's brief high.
For French, German and Italian investors wanting to Buy Gold today, the price moved up to a 3-week high of €597.
The Gold Price in Sterling jumped back above £500 an ounce.
"Gold [was] one of the few assets remaining that could be sold at a reasonable price to meet margin calls on other, worse-performing assets," explained the World Gold Council (WGC) in its latest quarterly report Wednesday, pointing to the apparent failure of Gold's Safe Haven Role during Sept. and Oct.
The WGC reports a record 121% jump in physical gold investment worldwide during the third-quarter of this year.
Global gold-market supplies, in contrast, fell by 9.7% year-on-year, led by a sharp drop in central bank gold sales.
"The rate of physical Gold Buying has been impressive, and supply remains constrained," agrees the latest Fortis Metals Monthly from Virtual Metals, the London-based consultancy.
On the supply side, "dehedging [by Gold Mining firms] continues to fade and central bank sales are very weak," it says.
"Perhaps when institutional investors, such as hedge funds, have stopped liquidating their holdings, the price will gain. But it needs to do so soon to be convincing."
In the broader raw materials market, meantime, forced sales to cover losses elsewhere have squashed commodity-fund investments by one half, Virtual Metals goes on, since peaking above $200 billion in June.
Today crude oil fell towards $53 per barrel, base metals sold off hard, and "safe haven" government bonds rose yet again, pushing the yield offered by 10-year US Treasury debt down to 3.27%.
Yesterday's US consumer-price data put the headline inflation rate at 3.7% year-on-year. Stripping out "volatile" food & energy prices, core CPI – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure – stood 2.2% higher from 12 months earlier, and precisely in line with core US inflation's average growth over the last 10 years.
Even so, "The largest headline CPI decline in the US in years implies to me that [while] gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn't look like there is any inflation in the short term to hedge," reckons Bart Melek, commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets, speaking to Canada's National Post.
Put another way, "There's absolutely no need to Buy Gold as a hedge against inflation," claimed Peter Fertig at Dresdner Kleinwort in Hainburg, Germany to Bloomberg News earlier this week.
Physical gold investors disagree, however, while central banks the world over continue to battle the risk of deflation with record-low interest rates and strong money-supply growth.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today slashed its lending rate by an unprecedented 1.0% to just 1.0% in an unscheduled move.
"More aggressive easing...should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome," agreed the US Federal Reserve at its most recent policy meeting, minutes released on Wednesday show.
The US monetary base (meaning currency in circulation and bank deposits held at the Federal Reserve) has expanded by more than 70% in the last two months, creating more cash inside nine weeks than existed in total seven years ago.
Growth in the Bank of England's broad "M4" measure of the UK money supply meantime swelled by 15.1% in October – an 18-year record – figures showed this morning.
New private-sector borrowing rose faster still, up by 16.1% year-on-year thanks to a record monthly expansion of £52.8 billion ($79.2bn), even as the supply of credit to households and business dried up.
The vast bulk of new credit creation, according to Bank of England data, is going instead to non-bank financial corporations – in particular brokers, exchanges and clearing houses needing large cash positions to use as a "fire break" in case of a major counter-party default.
All told, these "other financial corporations" accounted for more than 96% of new UK borrowing in Sept.
MCXARUN
9994500540
outlook
Crude oil dived under $50 a barrel to hit the lowest level since May 2005, deepening losses as financial markets reflected ever lower confidence in the world economy and evidence mounted of falling fuel demand. As economic slowdown has destroyed fuel demand, oil companies plan to store millions of barrels of oil in the hope economics will improve. Oil differs from other commodity markets in that producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can intervene to curb supplies, in theory providing support for prices. Since early September, OPEC has said it will remove around 2 million barrels per day from international markets, but market has taken the view that falling demand is a bigger factor than tightening supply.
Gold alleviated more than 2% as physical gold bullion buying offset a broad-based commodity decline, a strong dollar and further losses in equity markets. Gold came off its initial high as U.S. stocks slid as much as 3% early, prompting liquidation across all asset classes. Strong physical buying of gold such as coins and bars boosted prices, and demand increased with price dips. Global demand for gold jumped 18% year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, as strong buying by investors at a lower gold price reversed a weaker trend earlier this year according to the World Gold Council. Gold however consolidating and trading at $720-$752 technical levels. Gold held up well despite a 5% tumble of crude oil, trading just above $50 per barrel.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged by a larger than expected 27,000 for the week to their highest level in 16 years, according to the Labor Department, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 for the week from a revised 515,000 the previous week. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. However analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 505,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 516,000 the week before. Moreover New York-based Conference Board states in its monthly forecast of economic activity declined 0.8% in October, worse than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Over the last seven months, the index declined at a 4.7% annual rate, faster than any decline since 2001. Most of the decline was due to the plunge in stock prices, the drop in building permits and the decline in consumer expectations.
The price of copper tumbled as rising stockpiles and recession fears underscored the red metal's weaker demand outlook. Record lows in U.S. housing starts, surging inventory levels in London warehouse stocks, declining global equity markets, strength in the dollar, and uncertainty whether U.S. automakers will win emergency government loans contributing to copper's bearish tone. Fears of a deep global recession heightened after U.S. jobless claims jump to their highest level in 16 years.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold alleviated more than 2% as physical gold bullion buying offset a broad-based commodity decline, a strong dollar and further losses in equity markets. Gold came off its initial high as U.S. stocks slid as much as 3% early, prompting liquidation across all asset classes. Strong physical buying of gold such as coins and bars boosted prices, and demand increased with price dips. Global demand for gold jumped 18% year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, as strong buying by investors at a lower gold price reversed a weaker trend earlier this year according to the World Gold Council. Gold however consolidating and trading at $720-$752 technical levels. Gold held up well despite a 5% tumble of crude oil, trading just above $50 per barrel.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged by a larger than expected 27,000 for the week to their highest level in 16 years, according to the Labor Department, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 for the week from a revised 515,000 the previous week. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. However analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 505,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 516,000 the week before. Moreover New York-based Conference Board states in its monthly forecast of economic activity declined 0.8% in October, worse than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Over the last seven months, the index declined at a 4.7% annual rate, faster than any decline since 2001. Most of the decline was due to the plunge in stock prices, the drop in building permits and the decline in consumer expectations.
The price of copper tumbled as rising stockpiles and recession fears underscored the red metal's weaker demand outlook. Record lows in U.S. housing starts, surging inventory levels in London warehouse stocks, declining global equity markets, strength in the dollar, and uncertainty whether U.S. automakers will win emergency government loans contributing to copper's bearish tone. Fears of a deep global recession heightened after U.S. jobless claims jump to their highest level in 16 years.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, November 20, 2008
long view trading calls
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 178, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 56 & 52.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 295-285 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 308, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 365 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN (DEC)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 178, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 56 & 52.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 295-285 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 308, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 365 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN (DEC)
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "buy only abv 11925 S/L 11890 and T/p 11980-12000/towards 12100" ACHIEVED WITHIN 1-HOURS. Now, as long Resistance of 12150 & 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11850 S/L 11885 and T/p 11810-800/11720-730/sustain below towards 11630 OR sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070 (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as Long Resist 16575 & 16825 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL FROM HIGH=16826. Continue to view as long Resist of 16830 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16200 S/L 16280 and T/p 16100-16000/ close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16660-670 S/L 16700 and T/p 16575-500 (any time close below 16000-15975 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/ 20550/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2970 & 3040, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 & more below 2730 S/L 2765 and T/p 2700-2680 OR sell ard 2860-65 S/L 2870 and T/p 2840-2815 (now crude need to close above 2970/3040/3200/ 3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2735 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 187/191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50, for the day sell only below 178 S/L 180 and T/p 176-75/sustain close below 178 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.3-186.6 S/L 187 and T/p 184-84 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 178 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "buy only abv 11925 S/L 11890 and T/p 11980-12000/towards 12100" ACHIEVED WITHIN 1-HOURS. Now, as long Resistance of 12150 & 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11850 S/L 11885 and T/p 11810-800/11720-730/sustain below towards 11630 OR sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070 (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as Long Resist 16575 & 16825 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL FROM HIGH=16826. Continue to view as long Resist of 16830 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16200 S/L 16280 and T/p 16100-16000/ close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16660-670 S/L 16700 and T/p 16575-500 (any time close below 16000-15975 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/ 20550/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2970 & 3040, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 & more below 2730 S/L 2765 and T/p 2700-2680 OR sell ard 2860-65 S/L 2870 and T/p 2840-2815 (now crude need to close above 2970/3040/3200/ 3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2735 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 187/191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50, for the day sell only below 178 S/L 180 and T/p 176-75/sustain close below 178 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.3-186.6 S/L 187 and T/p 184-84 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 178 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
market outlook
Recession now a reality in major economies from Japan to Germany, policymakers is starting to fret about the chance of a phenomenon many see as even more deadly: deflation. Deflation is probably the worst case for the financial sector because it is very difficult to overcome. The prospect of constantly falling prices is particularly unwelcome at present given the blow it deals to efforts by banks, firms and households to cut debt and help weather the economic storm now following the financial market crisis. Central banks, faced with a sudden collapse in growth as well as inflation, have already slashed interest rates and are expected to keep doing so,although economists warn they may run out of rope before prices hit rock-bottom.
Gold rose above $760, as a weaker dollar and a bullish industry report showing strong demand triggered a technical chart breakout. Prices were supported by a lower dollar against the Euro following a government report showing record drop in U.S. consumer prices in October. World Gold Council report confirmed strong demand for physical gold bullion, triggering a technical breakout. Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-overyear to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
Copper tumbled more than 2 percent before steadying at slightly lower levels as a weaker dollar helped offset lingering concerns about demand and a slowing global growth outlook. Dim demand prospects and fears the world is in for an extended recession have contributed to the downtrend in the base metals. U.S. consumer prices plummeted and construction starts fell to record lows, reflective of the weakened state of metal demand. Further fears of demand deterioration from the U.S. automotive industry as the economic crisis threatens the survival of Detroit's Big Three General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. Global copper market in a small surplus of 26,800 tonnes in January to September period - the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported.
Crude oil fell below $54 to its lowest since January 2007 after an unexpectedly large build in U.S. crude inventories underlined falling demand. Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, weekly U.S. government data showed, twice analysts' expectations. With no end in sight for the global economic turmoil, traders continue to focus on the lack of demand heading into 2009. Inventories of distillates fell 1.5 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise. The distillates number is the fly in the ointment keeping prices from falling too much on an unexpected build in crude. Oil market was also closely watching any moves from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their meeting next week. OPEC is very concerned about the worsening world economic slowdown, the group's president Chakib Khelil said.'
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold rose above $760, as a weaker dollar and a bullish industry report showing strong demand triggered a technical chart breakout. Prices were supported by a lower dollar against the Euro following a government report showing record drop in U.S. consumer prices in October. World Gold Council report confirmed strong demand for physical gold bullion, triggering a technical breakout. Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-overyear to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
Copper tumbled more than 2 percent before steadying at slightly lower levels as a weaker dollar helped offset lingering concerns about demand and a slowing global growth outlook. Dim demand prospects and fears the world is in for an extended recession have contributed to the downtrend in the base metals. U.S. consumer prices plummeted and construction starts fell to record lows, reflective of the weakened state of metal demand. Further fears of demand deterioration from the U.S. automotive industry as the economic crisis threatens the survival of Detroit's Big Three General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. Global copper market in a small surplus of 26,800 tonnes in January to September period - the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported.
Crude oil fell below $54 to its lowest since January 2007 after an unexpectedly large build in U.S. crude inventories underlined falling demand. Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, weekly U.S. government data showed, twice analysts' expectations. With no end in sight for the global economic turmoil, traders continue to focus on the lack of demand heading into 2009. Inventories of distillates fell 1.5 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise. The distillates number is the fly in the ointment keeping prices from falling too much on an unexpected build in crude. Oil market was also closely watching any moves from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their meeting next week. OPEC is very concerned about the worsening world economic slowdown, the group's president Chakib Khelil said.'
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s the US dollar story for gold and silver and nothing else. Euro/Usd rose to 1.2813 while comex gold December rose to $764.80 and thereafter the euro fell and gold, silver and crude oil also fell. Still gold and silver have performed exceedingly well. Gold, silver and other commodities have been falling only after (A) US dollar gains or (B) Stock markets fall. When conditions A &B occur simultaneously then they fall else they are volatile. This will continue today also.
Minutes of Fed meeting
Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed. ``Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released. In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery. Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of ``price stability.''
Our View: Interest rate cuts by the Fed will reach a bottom in December 2008 or January 2008. Thereafter it remains to be seen what other hard measures Federal reserves takes to spruce the US economy. In the short term the US dollar may gain as other regions across the globe cut interest rates and interest rate differentials narrow. Once the interest rates cuts are over by most of the countries the US dollar will weaken at a modest pace. This may happen for the remaining part of 2008 but will surely happen after the first quarter of 2009.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
Copper needs to hold $157 to prevent another round of selling to $149 and $135. On the higher side $172 is the resistance. Overall downward pressure is there on copper.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil needs to hold $49.80 to prevent a fall to $46.00. On the higher side $53.80 and $56.20 are the resistances.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Minutes of Fed meeting
Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed. ``Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released. In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery. Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of ``price stability.''
Our View: Interest rate cuts by the Fed will reach a bottom in December 2008 or January 2008. Thereafter it remains to be seen what other hard measures Federal reserves takes to spruce the US economy. In the short term the US dollar may gain as other regions across the globe cut interest rates and interest rate differentials narrow. Once the interest rates cuts are over by most of the countries the US dollar will weaken at a modest pace. This may happen for the remaining part of 2008 but will surely happen after the first quarter of 2009.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
Copper needs to hold $157 to prevent another round of selling to $149 and $135. On the higher side $172 is the resistance. Overall downward pressure is there on copper.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil needs to hold $49.80 to prevent a fall to $46.00. On the higher side $53.80 and $56.20 are the resistances.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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