One should enjoy the consolidation days in metals and energies. Consolidation days with very low volatility have become scarce these days. Its also suggests the command the UK has over all foreign exchange markets and commodity markets. Once again the US dollar and crude oil prices will be the key to all commodities. Base metals should remain firm/rise as Chinese demand picks up. Markets will be looking forward to the FOMC minutes for direction today.
Pit trading is closed in US on Monday (1st September) due to Labor Day. Volumes will fall as the week progresses. There will be position squaring and rebuilding ahead of the holiday. Traders will also be taking positions for the US non farm payrolls on 5th September. All these will only increase the volatility for the weeks ahead.
Zinc, lead and Nickel can rise on month end short covering. China will open slowly its factories which were closed due to Olympics which will result in greater demand for these metals and firm prices. Technically also these metals are in medium term oversold zone. Physical demand of gold and silver will remain firm and premiums will also remain high.
LME COPPER (3 MONTHS)
Copper has to break the $7800-$8000 zone for $8450. Sellers will emerge this week only if copper falls below $7625.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell only below 11625-595 S/L 11655 and T/p 11560-525/11460/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11860-65 S/L 11870 and T/p 11820 upto 11770 only sustain abv 11875 & 11950 trigger buy call now (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 20330-340, fresh sell only below 20050 S/L 20125 and T/p 19975-900/19800/below down rally OR sell ard 20560-70 S/L 20600 and T/p 20475-20350, only sustain abv 20600 trigger buy call now (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN LEVELS Continue to view as long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 4975 & 4960 S/L 5000 and T/p 4920-4905/4865-70/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 5140-45 S/L 5150 and T/p 5115-5100 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/5710/ 6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
As long Resistance of 338.5 & 340.5, down trend continue. for the day sell below 335.5 S/L 336.75 and T/p 333.75-333/331/329.5/sustain below down rally OR buy only abv 340.5 S/L 339.25 and T/p 342-344/upto 346.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/351/ 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell only below 11625-595 S/L 11655 and T/p 11560-525/11460/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11860-65 S/L 11870 and T/p 11820 upto 11770 only sustain abv 11875 & 11950 trigger buy call now (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 20330-340, fresh sell only below 20050 S/L 20125 and T/p 19975-900/19800/below down rally OR sell ard 20560-70 S/L 20600 and T/p 20475-20350, only sustain abv 20600 trigger buy call now (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/ 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN LEVELS Continue to view as long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 4975 & 4960 S/L 5000 and T/p 4920-4905/4865-70/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 5140-45 S/L 5150 and T/p 5115-5100 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/5710/ 6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
As long Resistance of 338.5 & 340.5, down trend continue. for the day sell below 335.5 S/L 336.75 and T/p 333.75-333/331/329.5/sustain below down rally OR buy only abv 340.5 S/L 339.25 and T/p 342-344/upto 346.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/351/ 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, August 25, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell below 11610-595 S/L 11640 and T/p 11560-525/11460/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11860-65 S/L 11870 and T/p 11820 upto 11770 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 20075, for the day sell below 19800 S/L 19910 and T/p 19700/600/490/sustain below towards 19200 in coming days OR sell ard 20330-40 S/L 20360 and T/p 20230-170/20100, only abv 20600 trigger buy call now (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
As long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 5225, fresh sell below 4950 S/L 4980 and T/p 4920-4905/4865-70/ sustain below down rally OR sell ard 5090-95 S/L 5100 and T/p 5065-45 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
LME Closed today for Market Holiday As long Resistance of 337 & 340.5, down trend continue. for the day sell below 329.5-329 S/L 331 and T/p 327.5/ 325/323/sustain below towards 317 in coming days OR sell ard 336.2-336.5 S/L 337 and T/p 334.5/332.5(upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/ 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view as long Resistance 11875/11950, down trend continue. for the day sell below 11610-595 S/L 11640 and T/p 11560-525/11460/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11860-65 S/L 11870 and T/p 11820 upto 11770 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11275/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 20075, for the day sell below 19800 S/L 19910 and T/p 19700/600/490/sustain below towards 19200 in coming days OR sell ard 20330-40 S/L 20360 and T/p 20230-170/20100, only abv 20600 trigger buy call now (any time close below 19200-18900 bearish rally while close above 20600/21900/22850/25000/26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
As long Resistance of 5210/5290, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 5225, fresh sell below 4950 S/L 4980 and T/p 4920-4905/4865-70/ sustain below down rally OR sell ard 5090-95 S/L 5100 and T/p 5065-45 (now crude need to close above 5290/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
LME Closed today for Market Holiday As long Resistance of 337 & 340.5, down trend continue. for the day sell below 329.5-329 S/L 331 and T/p 327.5/ 325/323/sustain below towards 317 in coming days OR sell ard 336.2-336.5 S/L 337 and T/p 334.5/332.5(upside strong rally only on close above 340.5/ 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 312/302/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, August 22, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Once again it’s the US dollar story for all metals and energies. The difference this time around is that the rise is followed by huge demand in all metals. In my view if the rise in commodities is backed by increase in physical demand then higher prices are sustainable. With every rise the premium on gold and silver bars will fall in Asia.
Yesterday one of my clients went long in comex gold december future at $923 only to exit at $928 making a profit of $5. After booking the profit he immediately went short in gold at $928 only to book a loss at $931. This is one of the dumbest ways of trading. It is these kinds of traders who incur losses and curse the commodity exchanges for their trading losses. The best way to trade is to take a break between two trades, if the first trade is a profitable one. Commodity futures are one of the investing ways where profits and losses can be unlimited. Reduce of greed is the key. For the day traders then should have a target profit in mind. If the target profit is reached one should close their trading screens. If they do not close their trading screens then chances of profit getting reduced or profits converted in losses are higher as risk appetite also increases.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil targets $135.80 and $145.60 in the short term as long as $109.80 holds.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Yesterday one of my clients went long in comex gold december future at $923 only to exit at $928 making a profit of $5. After booking the profit he immediately went short in gold at $928 only to book a loss at $931. This is one of the dumbest ways of trading. It is these kinds of traders who incur losses and curse the commodity exchanges for their trading losses. The best way to trade is to take a break between two trades, if the first trade is a profitable one. Commodity futures are one of the investing ways where profits and losses can be unlimited. Reduce of greed is the key. For the day traders then should have a target profit in mind. If the target profit is reached one should close their trading screens. If they do not close their trading screens then chances of profit getting reduced or profits converted in losses are higher as risk appetite also increases.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil targets $135.80 and $145.60 in the short term as long as $109.80 holds.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, August 21, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Greater physical demand in all metals is preventing them from a fall. The US dollar pace of gains has also reduced. This is also further supporting metal prices from a fall. Base metals are getting buoyed on expectations that Chinese demand will increase once the Olympics are over. Base metals manufacturers trying to reduce production so that prices do not fall in the third quarter, when demand picks up due to festivals in different parts of the globe.
CENTRAL BANK GOLD SALES AGREEMNENT
Sales of gold by signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement could be the lowest since the pact was signed in 1999, according to the World Gold Council. Around 319 tonnes of gold has been sold so far by the European central banks that signed the agreement, out of a quota of 500 tonnes allowed in each year.
The Swiss Central Bank is the biggest single gold seller this year to date, having disposed of 113.1 tonnes of the precious metal. According to the figures provided by the WGC, the 15 signatories to the accord disposed of 497.2 tonnes of the 500-tonnes allowance during 2004-05,395.8 tonnes the following year and 475.8 tonnes in 2006-07.
Central banks portray a long term picture of things to come, they are not motivated by profit. If central banks are reluctant to sell gold then retail investors should diversify and invest in gold.
LEAD
The world lead market was in a 41,000 metric ton surplus from January to June due largely to strong mine output in Bolivia, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said. Global refined lead production of 4.273 million tons outstripped consumption of 4.232 million tons. The surplus is larger than the 8,000 tons during the same period the year before, ILZSG data showed. Chinese net exports of refined lead metal totaled 24,000 tons over the first six months of 2008, compared with 141,000 tons for the same period 2007. Mine output also increased, up 10.3% in the first half 2008 compared with the same period in the year before. This was mainly due to higher output in Bolivia, where the San Cristobal mine opened in September last year, and a further sharp increase in Chinese production, ILZSG said.
A 5.4% rise in global refined lead metal output was principally a consequence of increased production in Canada, China, India, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, the U.K. and the U.S., ILZSG said.
An increase in world lead demand of 4.6% was driven primarily by further growth in China. Usage in the U.S. increased by 5.9%, but it fell 3.7% in Europe.
Production for June totaled 770,800 tons, up from May's 731,900 tons. Consumption also rose on the month, to 764,200 tons from 713,400 tons in May.
Impact on Lead prices: Fundamentally lead is bullish but LME (3 months) needs to break $2173 to be in bullish zone.
ZINC
The world zinc market was in a 53,000 metric ton surplus in the first half of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said. The surplus was slightly higher than the one recorded in the January to May period of this year.
Mine production was 5.77 million tons, or 9.3% higher than the January to June 2007 total. Refined production rose by 147,000 tons to 5.771 million tons with Asian countries, in particular China, contributing an additional 184,000 tons to the world output. The 27-member European Union production fell by 4% and North American Free Trade Association output was slightly lower, WBMS said.
World demand was 116,000 tons higher than in 2007 with the most significant increase recorded in China. Chinese demand was 1.946 million tons which is 34% of the global total, WBMS said. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
Reported stocks rose by 62,200 tons with almost all of the increase recorded at London Metal Exchange warehouses, WBMS said. LME stocks represented 28% of the global total.
In June, slab zinc production was 1.0216 million tons and consumption was 1.0260 million tons.
Impact on Zinc prices: As long as LME Zinc (3 months) holds $1550 downside will be limited. However as long as zinc does not break $2022 upside will be limited in the short term
MCXARUN
9994500540
CENTRAL BANK GOLD SALES AGREEMNENT
Sales of gold by signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement could be the lowest since the pact was signed in 1999, according to the World Gold Council. Around 319 tonnes of gold has been sold so far by the European central banks that signed the agreement, out of a quota of 500 tonnes allowed in each year.
The Swiss Central Bank is the biggest single gold seller this year to date, having disposed of 113.1 tonnes of the precious metal. According to the figures provided by the WGC, the 15 signatories to the accord disposed of 497.2 tonnes of the 500-tonnes allowance during 2004-05,395.8 tonnes the following year and 475.8 tonnes in 2006-07.
Central banks portray a long term picture of things to come, they are not motivated by profit. If central banks are reluctant to sell gold then retail investors should diversify and invest in gold.
LEAD
The world lead market was in a 41,000 metric ton surplus from January to June due largely to strong mine output in Bolivia, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said. Global refined lead production of 4.273 million tons outstripped consumption of 4.232 million tons. The surplus is larger than the 8,000 tons during the same period the year before, ILZSG data showed. Chinese net exports of refined lead metal totaled 24,000 tons over the first six months of 2008, compared with 141,000 tons for the same period 2007. Mine output also increased, up 10.3% in the first half 2008 compared with the same period in the year before. This was mainly due to higher output in Bolivia, where the San Cristobal mine opened in September last year, and a further sharp increase in Chinese production, ILZSG said.
A 5.4% rise in global refined lead metal output was principally a consequence of increased production in Canada, China, India, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, the U.K. and the U.S., ILZSG said.
An increase in world lead demand of 4.6% was driven primarily by further growth in China. Usage in the U.S. increased by 5.9%, but it fell 3.7% in Europe.
Production for June totaled 770,800 tons, up from May's 731,900 tons. Consumption also rose on the month, to 764,200 tons from 713,400 tons in May.
Impact on Lead prices: Fundamentally lead is bullish but LME (3 months) needs to break $2173 to be in bullish zone.
ZINC
The world zinc market was in a 53,000 metric ton surplus in the first half of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said. The surplus was slightly higher than the one recorded in the January to May period of this year.
Mine production was 5.77 million tons, or 9.3% higher than the January to June 2007 total. Refined production rose by 147,000 tons to 5.771 million tons with Asian countries, in particular China, contributing an additional 184,000 tons to the world output. The 27-member European Union production fell by 4% and North American Free Trade Association output was slightly lower, WBMS said.
World demand was 116,000 tons higher than in 2007 with the most significant increase recorded in China. Chinese demand was 1.946 million tons which is 34% of the global total, WBMS said. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
Reported stocks rose by 62,200 tons with almost all of the increase recorded at London Metal Exchange warehouses, WBMS said. LME stocks represented 28% of the global total.
In June, slab zinc production was 1.0216 million tons and consumption was 1.0260 million tons.
Impact on Zinc prices: As long as LME Zinc (3 months) holds $1550 downside will be limited. However as long as zinc does not break $2022 upside will be limited in the short term
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=11750 AS DAYS HIGH=11744. Now good Resistance seen at 11750 & 11950 from where again correction expected. book profit on buy abv 11550, fresh buy only abv 11750 S/L 11720 and T/p 11800-810 upto 11900 OR sell below 11625 S/L 11655 and T/p 11585-530 upto 11450 where support seen again (any time close above 11750-11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on buy abv 20000. continue to view as long Resistance of 20500 & 21725, down rally likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 20350 S/L 20300 and T/p 20425-500/ only sustain abv 20500 more upside expected OR sell below 20050 S/L 20140 and T/p 19975-900 upto 19775(any time close below 18900 bearish rally while close above 21900/22850/ 25000/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil inventory schedule to release today PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL ON BOTH SIDE. book profit on buy abv 5035, buy only abv 5120 S/L 5100 and T/p 5150/5210 OR sell below 4900 S/L 4925 and T/p 4865-45/20/ 4780-60/close below 4760 test 4630-50 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5130/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell ard 332.2-332.5 S/L 333 and T/p 330.5/328.5 towards 323 in coming days OR sell below 328.5 S/L 330 and T/p 326/323-22 where support seen for today (upside strong rally only on close above 336.5/351/360.5/371/ 387.5/398 while close below 312/302/ 289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=11750 AS DAYS HIGH=11744. Now good Resistance seen at 11750 & 11950 from where again correction expected. book profit on buy abv 11550, fresh buy only abv 11750 S/L 11720 and T/p 11800-810 upto 11900 OR sell below 11625 S/L 11655 and T/p 11585-530 upto 11450 where support seen again (any time close above 11750-11950/12680/12950/ 13550/13850 bullish while close below 11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on buy abv 20000. continue to view as long Resistance of 20500 & 21725, down rally likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 20350 S/L 20300 and T/p 20425-500/ only sustain abv 20500 more upside expected OR sell below 20050 S/L 20140 and T/p 19975-900 upto 19775(any time close below 18900 bearish rally while close above 21900/22850/ 25000/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil inventory schedule to release today PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL ON BOTH SIDE. book profit on buy abv 5035, buy only abv 5120 S/L 5100 and T/p 5150/5210 OR sell below 4900 S/L 4925 and T/p 4865-45/20/ 4780-60/close below 4760 test 4630-50 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5130/5475/ 5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4865/4760 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell ard 332.2-332.5 S/L 333 and T/p 330.5/328.5 towards 323 in coming days OR sell below 328.5 S/L 330 and T/p 326/323-22 where support seen for today (upside strong rally only on close above 336.5/351/360.5/371/ 387.5/398 while close below 312/302/ 289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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