GOLD
we book profit on buy abv 12375/12640/ 12900, for the day buy only abv 13000-13025 S/L 12975 and T/p 13100-150/ close abv 13050 towards 13300 in coming days OR buy ard 12630-35 S/L 12620 and T/p 12690-12730 (any time close above 12900-13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy only abv 24975 S/L 24890 and T/p 25100-150/sustain abv towards 25500 in coming days OR buy ard 24300-310 S/L 24275 and T/p 12440/24550 (any time close below 24275/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25150/25675/26900/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
as long support of 5975 & 5900 uptrend likely to continue. book profit on buy above 5945/6120, for the day buy abv 6150-6175 S/L 6130 and T/p 6200-6250 OR buy ard 5932-40 S/L 5925 and T/p 5975-90/upto 6035, fall below 5900 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6175 for bullish rally while close below 5900/5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 369.5 S/L 368 and T/p 371-72/375 OR buy ard 358.5-359 S/L 358 and T/p 361 upto 365 (upside strong rally only on close above 369.5/383.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Market action in Gold, Oil continues
New York gold's last trading session of the month and the quarter ended with a small loss in the August contract and spot prices were quoted near $926 at last check after a rally that stopped short of $940 following small gains in the US dollar (up to near 72.50 on the index) and an evaporation of most of the early gains that crude oil exhibited in early going.
After climbing to new peaks above $143 black gold eased back to $140.75 retaining only a half dollar advance on the day. US military officials downplayed the potential for Iran to do anything significant in the Straits of Hormuz as far as oil flows are concerned, even if a pre-emptive US or Israeli strike befalls on its nuclear installations.
Stocks were fairly quiet, gaining less than 50 points on the day. Thus far, the month and quarter-end book squaring activity expected for the day has yielded less little in terms of volumes and volatility. Silver lost 6 cents to trade at $17.42 while platinum was still ahead $12 at $2054 (primarily on Lonmin's smelter repairs shutdown) but palladium lost $5 a5 $461 per ounce. The gold ETF made a rather lukewarm debut in Tokyo and will -for the time being- still remain a US institutional and geographic concentration phenomenon.
Dollar policy, interest rate trends, and energy markets unfolding remain at the epicenter of the mid-year markets' pivot points (as they have indeed pretty much dominated the headlines of the first half of 2008) and uncertainty is still part of the financial and market fabric as we head for the second half. The trio may range-trade for a short while yet, but course changes are very likely in the making as we cover the current action.
MCXARUN
9994500540
After climbing to new peaks above $143 black gold eased back to $140.75 retaining only a half dollar advance on the day. US military officials downplayed the potential for Iran to do anything significant in the Straits of Hormuz as far as oil flows are concerned, even if a pre-emptive US or Israeli strike befalls on its nuclear installations.
Stocks were fairly quiet, gaining less than 50 points on the day. Thus far, the month and quarter-end book squaring activity expected for the day has yielded less little in terms of volumes and volatility. Silver lost 6 cents to trade at $17.42 while platinum was still ahead $12 at $2054 (primarily on Lonmin's smelter repairs shutdown) but palladium lost $5 a5 $461 per ounce. The gold ETF made a rather lukewarm debut in Tokyo and will -for the time being- still remain a US institutional and geographic concentration phenomenon.
Dollar policy, interest rate trends, and energy markets unfolding remain at the epicenter of the mid-year markets' pivot points (as they have indeed pretty much dominated the headlines of the first half of 2008) and uncertainty is still part of the financial and market fabric as we head for the second half. The trio may range-trade for a short while yet, but course changes are very likely in the making as we cover the current action.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Traders will be gearing for super Thursday. We have the European central bank meeting and US June non farm payrolls. They will be taking their positions accordingly. Thursdays close can set the trend for rest of July for all metals, energies and the US dollar. As crude oil prices rise we continue to hear voices all over. The US treasury secretary says that they believe in a stronger US dollar. I wonder whether its the same rhetoric as his predecessor John Snow. Whenever John Snow had his comments on reaffirming a stronger US dollar, the dollar index would start to fall in the past. Chinese premiere Wen Jiabao urged the United States to stabilize the dollar. These comments will continue till crude oil prices rise.
Commodities including all metals and energies are rising due to lack of alternate investments in developed markets. Global hedge funds including US state run pension funds are heavily invested in commodities. Global inventories are being manipulated. Fund managers are buying metals like copper, gold, silver and platinum and storing them in private warehouses. When most of the fund managers do the same then global inventories start to fall and these metals rise. This is happening. For commodity prices to fall two conditions must be met. (A) There has to new alternate sources of investments or equity markets rise (B) Global economic uncertainty must fade. Till then commodity prices will remain firm.
SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Silver targets $1930 and $2132 in July as long as $1585-$1600 zone holds on daily closing basis.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Commodities including all metals and energies are rising due to lack of alternate investments in developed markets. Global hedge funds including US state run pension funds are heavily invested in commodities. Global inventories are being manipulated. Fund managers are buying metals like copper, gold, silver and platinum and storing them in private warehouses. When most of the fund managers do the same then global inventories start to fall and these metals rise. This is happening. For commodity prices to fall two conditions must be met. (A) There has to new alternate sources of investments or equity markets rise (B) Global economic uncertainty must fade. Till then commodity prices will remain firm.
SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Silver targets $1930 and $2132 in July as long as $1585-$1600 zone holds on daily closing basis.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, June 30, 2008
mcx gold intraday
MCX Gold is bullish; can go up to higher levels
30 June 2008 10:56:25
MCX Gold: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.
The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12765 Target 12840 and 12900 Stoploss at 12718
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:56:25
MCX Gold: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.
The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12765 Target 12840 and 12900 Stoploss at 12718
MCXARUN
9994500540
copper intraday
Copper rises on inventory data at SHFE
30 June 2008 10:38:21
Copper futures ticked to their highest level in 1 1/2 months Friday with the help of recent U.S. dollar weakness, inventory declines and chart-based momentum.
Much of the influence has been the recently softer U.S. dollar, Warrants and deliverable copper were down in Shanghai in a surprise drop, and LME stocks were a little bit lower although certainly not eye-popping
Once-a-week inventory data released on Fridays for the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fall of 1,016 metric tons to 32,401. Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 150 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 122,900.
Much of the buying in copper and other commodities has been inflation-related, Light speculative buying occurred.
A key for the markets this week will be a European Central Bank meeting. There are expectations for a rate hike, which may prompt further weakness in the dollar. This tends to support commodities such as copper.
However, such a move would also mean a slowing of the economy there, which also has demand implications for the metal.
The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons. Copper inventories at LME, increased by -150 MT to 122900 MT.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 366.8 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 369.2 and 373.6, If market sustains below 362.4 can see a further fall towards 360.0 and 355.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 366 Target 369 and 372 SL 364
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:38:21
Copper futures ticked to their highest level in 1 1/2 months Friday with the help of recent U.S. dollar weakness, inventory declines and chart-based momentum.
Much of the influence has been the recently softer U.S. dollar, Warrants and deliverable copper were down in Shanghai in a surprise drop, and LME stocks were a little bit lower although certainly not eye-popping
Once-a-week inventory data released on Fridays for the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fall of 1,016 metric tons to 32,401. Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 150 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 122,900.
Much of the buying in copper and other commodities has been inflation-related, Light speculative buying occurred.
A key for the markets this week will be a European Central Bank meeting. There are expectations for a rate hike, which may prompt further weakness in the dollar. This tends to support commodities such as copper.
However, such a move would also mean a slowing of the economy there, which also has demand implications for the metal.
The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons. Copper inventories at LME, increased by -150 MT to 122900 MT.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 366.8 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 369.2 and 373.6, If market sustains below 362.4 can see a further fall towards 360.0 and 355.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 366 Target 369 and 372 SL 364
MCXARUN
9994500540
ENERGY intraday
Crdue Oil trades higher on speculative buying
30 June 2008 10:41:45
Oil prices jumped to record high levels above $142 a barrel on Friday, as the US currency weakened further and stock markets tumbled at the end of a volatile trading week for investors. New York light sweet crude struck a historic peak of $142.26 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude reached an all-time high of $142.13 in electronic deals.
World stocks fell to a three-month low as a fast deteriorating global inflation picture intensified concerns over the outlook for corporate profits, hastening the rush of investors' funds into commodities. 40 percent surge in oil prices this year has prompted U.S. politicians to take steps to try to curb speculation in the oil market, that some blame for pushing up prices.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar has almost become a "self-fulfilling prophecy", a scaling back of U.S. rate expectations has pushed the dollar lower, encouraging gains in the oil price and in turn exacerbating worries over inflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Moreover, the dollar could be set to "lose ground rapidly" next week in the event of a combination of negative factors for the currency, namely a rate hike in the euro zone, further weak U.S. data and poor liquidity ahead of the July 4 holiday in the U.S.
Crude also got a leg up after Libya threatened an output cut. Shokri Ghanem, chief of Libya's national oil company, reiterated his Sunday comments that Libya "sees a possibility for a decrease in production.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation which directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the futures market regulator, to use all its authority including emergency powers to "curb immediately" the role of excessive speculation in energy futures markets, Talks between oil workers and Chevron continued in Nigeria, with the oil minister saying he was confident a deal could be reached, but union officials left open the possibility of a strike early this week.
Natural gas in New York gained as rude oil rose to a record and on speculation lower stockpiles ill push prices higher later this year. Declining imports of gas from Canada and reduced supplies of liquefied natural gas have increased speculation of a possible supply crunch next winter and higher prices
Higher oil prices have also made natural gas cheaper on a relative basis, prompting those seeking a bargain to buy. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York of about 39 percent.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5985 Target 6040 and 6120 Stoploss 5935
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 564 Target 569 and 576 Stop loss at 559
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:41:45
Oil prices jumped to record high levels above $142 a barrel on Friday, as the US currency weakened further and stock markets tumbled at the end of a volatile trading week for investors. New York light sweet crude struck a historic peak of $142.26 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude reached an all-time high of $142.13 in electronic deals.
World stocks fell to a three-month low as a fast deteriorating global inflation picture intensified concerns over the outlook for corporate profits, hastening the rush of investors' funds into commodities. 40 percent surge in oil prices this year has prompted U.S. politicians to take steps to try to curb speculation in the oil market, that some blame for pushing up prices.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar has almost become a "self-fulfilling prophecy", a scaling back of U.S. rate expectations has pushed the dollar lower, encouraging gains in the oil price and in turn exacerbating worries over inflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Moreover, the dollar could be set to "lose ground rapidly" next week in the event of a combination of negative factors for the currency, namely a rate hike in the euro zone, further weak U.S. data and poor liquidity ahead of the July 4 holiday in the U.S.
Crude also got a leg up after Libya threatened an output cut. Shokri Ghanem, chief of Libya's national oil company, reiterated his Sunday comments that Libya "sees a possibility for a decrease in production.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation which directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the futures market regulator, to use all its authority including emergency powers to "curb immediately" the role of excessive speculation in energy futures markets, Talks between oil workers and Chevron continued in Nigeria, with the oil minister saying he was confident a deal could be reached, but union officials left open the possibility of a strike early this week.
Natural gas in New York gained as rude oil rose to a record and on speculation lower stockpiles ill push prices higher later this year. Declining imports of gas from Canada and reduced supplies of liquefied natural gas have increased speculation of a possible supply crunch next winter and higher prices
Higher oil prices have also made natural gas cheaper on a relative basis, prompting those seeking a bargain to buy. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York of about 39 percent.
MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5985 Target 6040 and 6120 Stoploss 5935
MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 564 Target 569 and 576 Stop loss at 559
MCXARUN
9994500540
BULLION intraday
Gold rises highest in a month
30 June 2008 10:40:02
Gold rose to the highest in a month as record energy costs boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached an all-time high above $142 a barrel on Friday and have doubled in the past year. Gold climbed to a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March as a slumping dollar and soaring raw-material prices spurred investors to purchase precious metals to protect against a loss of purchasing power.
Gold headed for a second weekly gain as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. And it has extended the rally that began after Wednesday's FOMC statement put on hold the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates that rallied the euro. And now crude oil has surged further, adding to worries about inflation.
The fortunes of gold remain closely tied to the course of the dollar for now, with an improvement in the currency's fortunes against the other major currencies not seen on the near-term horizon. But expectations are that when the dollar does begin to sustain a recovery, the slide in gold prices would be swift and furious.
New crest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said gold production at its Telfer mine in Western Australia will be between 20,000 and 25,000 ounces lower in June due to the impact of gas shortages. it is now expecting gold production from Telfer of between 700,000 ounces and 750,000 ounces for fiscal 2009.
Gold will probably rally to $1,000 an ounce by the end of the year and ``work higher'' in the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said
ETF Securities Ltd., manager of $6 billion of commodity-backed investments, agreed to buy the two- thirds of two gold funds it didn't already own from the World Gold Council, doubling its assets of the precious metal. ETF bought control of Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities in London and Gold Bullion Securities in Melbourne from the World Gold Council's Gold Bullion Holdings for an undisclosed price, Jersey-based ETF Securities said in a statement. The two products have gold assets of 126 metric tons (4.05 million ounces) compared with 1.3 million ounces at ETF Securities.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 1.9% in May while consumer spending was up .8%. The higher figures were attributed to the government's stimulus checks.
The Commerce Department also said that the core rate of personal consumption expenditures (an inflation indicator) was up .1% in May and up 2.1% from a year ago, less than expected.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 59.8 to 56.4 in June, a little less than expected
Currencies update:
The yen strengthened from a record low against the euro and rose versus the dollar as a slump in stock markets around the world reduced demand for higher- yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet virtually pre-announced a rate hike at the central bank's last news conference, when he said that the council had moved to a state of "heightened alertness" on inflation risks and that it could raise rates by a small amount at the July 3 meeting.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up 2.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, down from its 2.5% estimate a month ago and weaker than expected. Nominal GDP was up 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago.
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24660 Target 24890 and 25040 stoploss at 23495
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:40:02
Gold rose to the highest in a month as record energy costs boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached an all-time high above $142 a barrel on Friday and have doubled in the past year. Gold climbed to a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March as a slumping dollar and soaring raw-material prices spurred investors to purchase precious metals to protect against a loss of purchasing power.
Gold headed for a second weekly gain as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. And it has extended the rally that began after Wednesday's FOMC statement put on hold the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates that rallied the euro. And now crude oil has surged further, adding to worries about inflation.
The fortunes of gold remain closely tied to the course of the dollar for now, with an improvement in the currency's fortunes against the other major currencies not seen on the near-term horizon. But expectations are that when the dollar does begin to sustain a recovery, the slide in gold prices would be swift and furious.
New crest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said gold production at its Telfer mine in Western Australia will be between 20,000 and 25,000 ounces lower in June due to the impact of gas shortages. it is now expecting gold production from Telfer of between 700,000 ounces and 750,000 ounces for fiscal 2009.
Gold will probably rally to $1,000 an ounce by the end of the year and ``work higher'' in the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said
ETF Securities Ltd., manager of $6 billion of commodity-backed investments, agreed to buy the two- thirds of two gold funds it didn't already own from the World Gold Council, doubling its assets of the precious metal. ETF bought control of Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities in London and Gold Bullion Securities in Melbourne from the World Gold Council's Gold Bullion Holdings for an undisclosed price, Jersey-based ETF Securities said in a statement. The two products have gold assets of 126 metric tons (4.05 million ounces) compared with 1.3 million ounces at ETF Securities.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 1.9% in May while consumer spending was up .8%. The higher figures were attributed to the government's stimulus checks.
The Commerce Department also said that the core rate of personal consumption expenditures (an inflation indicator) was up .1% in May and up 2.1% from a year ago, less than expected.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 59.8 to 56.4 in June, a little less than expected
Currencies update:
The yen strengthened from a record low against the euro and rose versus the dollar as a slump in stock markets around the world reduced demand for higher- yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet virtually pre-announced a rate hike at the central bank's last news conference, when he said that the council had moved to a state of "heightened alertness" on inflation risks and that it could raise rates by a small amount at the July 3 meeting.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up 2.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, down from its 2.5% estimate a month ago and weaker than expected. Nominal GDP was up 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago.
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24660 Target 24890 and 25040 stoploss at 23495
MCXARUN
9994500540
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