BASEMETALS INTRADAY

Major Economic Data:
- The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .5% in February, better than expected. Consumer spending was up .1%, as expected.
Major Headline:
- Copper fell, erasing early gains, as concern that a slowing global economy may reduce demand for commodities sent futures indexes tumbling.
- Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the euro, making oil and other commodities less appealing as a hedge against inflation. A stronger dollar also makes oil more expensive to overseas investors.
- Prices are being hit by worries about the economic outlook and the impact of a U.S. recession. Also recent data on China has been poor.
- Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 5.4 percent in the past week, to 115,225 metric tons, the lowest level since Aug. 14. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses also fell by 12,217 tons to 55,607 tons this week, the first drop since the end of the Lunar New Year holiday on Feb. 12.
- Standard Chartered cut its copper price forecast for this year to an average of $7,046 a metric ton, from $7,068 earlier, according to the report. It also slashed its first-quarter forecast to $7,685 a ton, from $7,770.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 333 Target 342 and 346 Stop loss 327.8

MCX Zinc April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Buy at 93.00 Target 95.50 and 97.40 Stop loss at 91.80

MCX Nickel April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Buy at 1215 Target 1245 and 1285 Stop loss at 1190



MCX Lead April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Lead April : Buy at 114 Target 116 and 118.20 Stop loss at 112.95


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bullion intraday

Major Headline:

- Gold fell in New York after crude oil and other commodities declined, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also fell.

- Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the euro, making oil and other commodities less appealing as a hedge against inflation. A stronger dollar also makes oil more expensive to overseas investors.

- Reports from the Commerce Department showed U.S. consumer spending rose at the slowest pace in more than a year last month. Consumer prices excluding energy and food costs, preferred as a gauge of inflation by Federal Reserve policy makers, increased at a 2 percent annual rate, at the low end of the Fed's forecast of 2 percent to 2.2 percent for this year.

- Price decline is an opportunity for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar, analysts said. Gold gained 14 percent this year before today.

US Economy:

- The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up .5% in February, better than expected. Consumer spending was up .1%, as expected.

- The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 70.8 to 69.5 in March, weaker than expected. The December eurodollars were up .03 at 97.765.

- In an ongoing effort to help banks stay liquid, the Federal Reserve said that it will offer $50 billion on April 7th and April 21st.

Currency Update:

- The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that real GDP was up .6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 and up 2.8% from a year ago, a little less than expected. The June pound is steady to lower.

- The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 3.8% to 3.9% in February. Japan's Statistics Bureau said that consumer prices were down .2% in February, but up 1.0% from a year ago

MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations - MCX Gold April: Buy at 11980 Target 12060 and 12140 Stop loss 11915

MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22900 Target 23180 and 23460 stop loss 22760


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comex gold intraday

Gold prices fell on Friday, as the Dollar gained strength, extending profit taking in the bullion. A retreat in oil prices also affected the price movement in gold.

International spot gold traded in the range $950.50 - $923.10, and last quoted at $930.00 ($947.40).

As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.

Dollar found some support in the report from US Labor Department released on Thursday, which revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.

Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.

The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.

The Euro had gained early last week, inspired by robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.

Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.

The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.

US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.

But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.

Gold had corrected from record high reached on March 17th, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.

The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.

Oil prices eased to close below $105 a barrel, as functioning of Iraq's pipeline system disrupted by a bomb attack a day earlier was reported to be restored.

Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $104.95 ($107.26) a barrel, after trading in the range $107.63 - $104.71.

The latest weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.

The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.

The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.

The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.

Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.

Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $951.70 – $927.70 and closed at $936.70 ($953.50).



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 941; bearish below $ 936

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comex gold intraday

Gold prices drifted lower yesterday, as moderate recovery in the Dollar brought about profit taking following the previous days’ rally. But firm oil prices remained supportive for the yellow metal.



International spot gold traded in the range $954.50 - $939.95, and last quoted at $947.40 ($953.50).



Dollar found some support in the report from US Labor Department released yesterday, which revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.



Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.



The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public yesterday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.



The Euro had gained in the previous day inspired by robust data from the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies.



Germany's Ifo institute reported that business confidence in the Europe's biggest economy rose for a third consecutive month. Also, French business sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, reaching its highest level so far this year, according to national statistics office INSEE.



The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new homes in the US fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000.



US consumer confidence index had fallen in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February, according to a US Conference Board release on Tuesday.



But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had shown that resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.



Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.



The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.



Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $107.26 ($106.21) a barrel, after trading in the range $105.03 - $108.22.



The latest weekly update by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration had said US crude stockpiles remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, while a rise of around 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected.



The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.



The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.



The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.



Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $958.80 – $945.80 and closed at $953.50 ($955.20).



DGCX Gold June


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 955; bearish below $ 949

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basemetals intraday

Major Economic Data:

§ The U.S. Commerce Department said again that real GDP in the fourth quarter was up an annual rate of .6%, the same as its estimate one month ago. For all of 2007, real GDP was up 2.2%. The December eurodollars are steady.

§ The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 366,000.

Major Headline:

§ Copper jumped the most in three weeks as inventories slumped to a seven-month low, raising concern that supplies may trail demand this year.

§ Copper production fell 42,000 metric tons short of demand last year, the International Copper Study Group said. The deficit compares with a surplus of 287,000 tons in 2006,

§ UBS boosted its 2008 copper forecast by 17 percent today, citing output constraints. The metal will average $3.50 a pound this year, the Zurich-based investment bank said. That compares with a previous forecast of $3. Before today, copper has averaged $3.5062 this year on the Comex.

§ Copper demand will outpace production by 100,000 metric tons this year, UBS said. Risks to output in Zambia, China and Chile, the world's biggest source of the metal, ``have increased in the past several months,'' Brebner said. In February, snowy weather and power outages disrupted copper production in China. In Chile, contract workers at state- owned Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, plan to strike, a labor leader said last week, threatening production.

§ Zambia's trade surplus widened to 168 billion kwacha ($45.8 million) in February on increased exports of copper from the southern African country, the Central Statistics Agency said.

§ The surplus rose from a revised 42.1 billion kwacha in January, Modesto Banda, acting director of the agency, said in a statement in the capital, Lusaka, today.

§ Copper accounts for about 70 percent of Zambia's export earnings and production has risen in recent years as the government sold the industry back to investors, after taking it over from Anglo American Plc in the early 1970s.

§ Exports rose 8.3 percent to 1.3 trillion kwacha in February from a month earlier, while imports fell 23 percent to 1.1 trillion kwacha, the statistics office said. Refined copper accounted for 81.8 percent of exports in February, compared with 81.7 percent in January

§ Nickel advanced for a third day in London on speculation demand from China, the world's largest user, will expand because of rising production of stainless steel. Copper and tin also gained.

§ Chinese stainless steelmakers will probably boost output by 23 percent this year to 9.1 million metric tons because of strong domestic demand and plant expansion, Macquarie Group Ltd.'s analyst Bonnie Liu said. About 70 percent of world nickel production is used in stainless steel.

§ Recovery in stainless steel demand and increases in coking- coal prices will boost nickel, Liu said today at a conference in Hong Kong. Growth in Chinese nickel imports are a ``natural result,'' she said.

MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 338 Target 349 and 356 Stop loss 332


MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Buy at 94.50 Target 97 and 98.80 Stop loss at 93.15



MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1225 Target 1280 and 1295 Stop loss at 1205



MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations: MCX Lead March: Buy at 115.50 Target 117 and 119 Stop loss at 114.20

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tecnical bullion charts

click the pics to large view







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Energy intraday

§ Oil prices raced higher as a pipeline blast in key crude producer Iraq sparked supply jitters and geopolitical tension.

§ An explosion was reported at an oil pipeline in southern Iraq, near Basra. It is not yet known what impact the damage will have on Iraq's exports. It was the second attack on an Iraqi pipeline this week. May crude oil is steady.

§ The dollar has recouped earlier losses on relief that today's US GDP data did not yield any nasty surprises. The news that the Commerce Department left US GDP growth at an unrevised annualised rate of 0.6 pct, with consumer spending higher, bolstered US stock futures, helping the dollar to climb towards day highs against both the euro and the yen.

§ The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 36 billion cubic feet last week to 1.277 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 16% from a year ago.

MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4245 Target 4315 and 4365 Stop loss 4215

MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 385 Target 393 and 399 Stop loss 376

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