outlook

April gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 916.20. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the
25% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 873.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 916.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 915.20 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 888.40 then
the 25% retracement level crossing at 873.90.

March silver closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.451 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.500 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 17.345 then month resistance crossing at 17.500. First support is Wednesday's low
crossing at 16.230 then the 25% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 15.895.

March copper closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline
crossing at 340.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 75%
retracement level crossing at 352.60 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 317.10 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 346.20. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level crossing at 352.60. First support is today's low crossing at 317.10. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 324.55.

March crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 89.97. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline,
January's low crossing at 85.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 92.71 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.97. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.32. First support is today's low crossing at 86.24. Second support is
January's low crossing at 85.42.

March Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last
week's high crossing at 8.123 are needed to renew the rally off January's low and would open the door for a possible test of
January's high crossing at 8.397 later this winter. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at
7.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.130 then January's high crossing at 8.397. First
support is Monday's low crossing at 7.580. Second support is January's low crossing at 7.534.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The European central bank has shifted its focus from inflation to growth after it acknowledged that the Eurozone will be affected by a slowdown in the US economy. Bank of England and Fed interest rate cuts will only prevent investors from investing in equities. If the investor cannot invest in equities, bond yields are too low to invest as they do not cover inflation, real estate prices are volatile, emerging market equities provide cheap valuations at the current prices but are volatile, then where should he park his money? My answer is only commodities which include a balance between soft commodities, precious metals and base metals. If investment in commodities rises, gold will rise and will detach itself away from the movement in the currency markets.

Gold and silver will be volatile for the rest of the day. Silver and copper should outperform gold. Crude oil is finding buyers at higher levels. It remains to be seen whether traders will square off their positions over the weekend or go long. Base metals should rise further as there is a technical break out. Zinc, its better to remain on the sidelines as there are huge longs at higher levels and investors are also averaging at lower levels.

GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$898.0

As long gold holds $897 it will target $924 and $942 once again. Gold has to fall below $897 for further losses to $887 and $872.0

COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $336.60

As long as copper holds $336 it will target $360.50 and $372 in the short term. LME copper 3 months can rise to $7900 if it holds $7425.

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LONG VIEW

GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11725-800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 11650(FEB)

*******************************************
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22000 UPTO 22500 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 21600, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 19850-700 DOWN TREND AGAIN(MAR)

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for safe trade follow this

GOLD

For the day buy only abv 11550 S/L 11530 and T/p 11585-600/11670 upto 11775 in days to come OR sell below 11400-380 S/L 11420 and T/p 11340-300/250/175-50 upto 11000 days to come (any time close above 11600/ 11875 bullish while close below 11300/ 10950-900/10500/10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit on sell recm ard 21390-400, for the day buy only abv 21400 & 450 S/L 21330 and T/p 21550-625/abv 21650 test 21800 OR sell below 21150 S/L 21225 and T/p 21075-25/20950 upto 20800 (any time close below 19725/ 19375/19000/18625/18250/18100/ 17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 21650/22000/23150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day sell below 3420 S/L 3440 and T/p 3400-3385 upto 3310 in days to come OR buy only abv 3500-3510 S/L 3485 and T/p 3540-45/3570/3610/3640/ uprally (now crude need to close above 3570/3640/ 3700/3840/3910-35 for bullish while close below 3380/3290-60 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 289 & 290 S/L 288 and T/p 292-93/bullish rally test 298 -300 atleast OR sell only below 283 S/L 284.3 and T/p 282.5-281/280-278/ bearish rally test 272-73 atleast (upside strong rally only on close above 290-93/ 299/314/ 321.5/327/331.5/348 while close below 278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)

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bullion chart

this is MCX Gold day chart
click the chart to enlarge



this is MCX Silver day chart
click the chart to enlarge



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U.S. Energy Futures

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 42.05). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 42.05 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
95.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
92.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
92.71 - Highest High in last 10-Days
92.25 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
92.07 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
90.29 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
90.01 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
89.05 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
88.83 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
88.75 - High
88.72 - Last Price
87.40 - Low
87.01 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
86.75 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
80.04 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 54.57). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 54.57 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.368 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.179 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.130 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.020 - High
7.998 - Last Price
7.970 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.944 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.936 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.926 - Low
7.800 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.620 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.611 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.580 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.480 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.187 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

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Base metals

Major Headline:

· Copper rose in MCX / LME, reversing an earlier drop, on signs that stockpiles of the metal may decline further, limiting supply. Zinc and lead also rose.

· MCX Copper rose almost by 3% on BHP billiton acquisition new and stock news from lme. MCX Copper traded at 288.50 per kg to register days high.

· MCX Zinc followed the red metal and traded as high as Rs. 95.40 pr kg, similarly Lead Feb touched high of Rs. 111.15 per kg.

· MCx Nickel remain bearish and was trading with loss at Rs. 1053 per kg

· Copper also rises as BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, raises the stake to acquire Australian Mining Company Rio Tinto

· Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second-largest producer of the metal, said output at its smelter dropped as much as 70 percent of normal production after weather hampered power supplies since Feb. 2. The company produced 554,000 tons last year, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

* Previously copper declined as global stock markets witnessed losses Tuesday, crude oil prices declined and the US dollar firmed against the euro. The prices were also hit by weaker than expected release of U.S. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index.
* Moreover poor weather conditions along with weeklong Lunar New Year holidays beginning Wednesday in China are keeping off China’s demand. Thus Copper market may once again look at US economic factors, raising chances of slight ease in red metals prices in the near term.


MCX Copper Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 285 for the target of 291.30 and 295 with stop loss at 282.50

MCX Zinc Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Feb: Buy at 94.40 for the target of 95.80 and 96.40 with stop loss at 93.75

MCX Nickel Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Feb: Sell at 1070-65 for the target of 1040 and 1020 with stop loss at 1095

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

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