SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22000 UPTO 22500 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 20825-925/21325-500, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 18550/18300/18075 & 17750 DOWN TREND AGAIN(MAR)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 245-235/227 UPTO 212 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 271.5/265/252, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 293 UPTREND AGAIN(FEB)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 109-111 UPTO 115 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 102.6 & 105(JAN)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 4000-4040/4100 MAX UPTO 4200 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 3860/3940 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW 3710
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, January 11, 2008
daily chart
This is MCX Gold day chart
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This is MCX Silver day chart
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MCXARUN
9994500540
click the chart to enlarge
This is MCX Silver day chart
click the chart to enlarge
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 3699BEARISH BELOW 3683
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11270 BEARISH BELOW 11232
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20937 BEARISH BELOW 20853
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 287 BEARISH BELOW 286.2
LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 103.3 BEARISH BELOW 102.9
NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1133 BEARISH BELOW 1129
ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 97.45 BEARISH BELOW 97.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11270 BEARISH BELOW 11232
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20937 BEARISH BELOW 20853
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 287 BEARISH BELOW 286.2
LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 103.3 BEARISH BELOW 102.9
NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1133 BEARISH BELOW 1129
ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 97.45 BEARISH BELOW 97.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bernanke Says More Interest-Rate Cuts May Be Needed
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said more interest-rate cuts ``may well be necessary'' after 1 percentage point of reductions since September to buttress economic growth.
``We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks,'' Bernanke said today in his first speech on the economy since the Fed's Dec. 11 meeting. Recent figures suggested the outlook for ``2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced,'' he said.
The comments increased speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, to 3.75 percent, this month. Wall Street analysts say the odds of a recession have increased after a report last week showed a jump in unemployment.
``A number of factors, including higher oil prices, lower equity prices, and softening home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending'' this year, Bernanke said in remarks to the Women in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club in Washington.
The Fed isn't forecasting a recession, the Fed chief said in response to a question after the speech. ``We are forecasting slow growth, but there are downside risks,'' he added. ``It is important to take substantive action against those risks.''
Bigger Reduction
``From the tone of the speech, a 50-basis point cut seems likely,'' Lawrence Lindsey, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush and ex-Fed governor, said from New York. Though it's ``unlikely'' the U.S. is in recession, Bernanke ``is quite right to take precautionary measures right now,'' he said.
The dollar extended declines and shorter-dated Treasuries rallied after Bernanke's remarks, while stocks initially rose before dropping. Yields on two-year Treasuries fell to 2.65 percent at 2:13 p.m. in New York, from 2.72 percent late yesterday. The dollar dropped 0.9 percent to $1.48 per euro.
``The committee must remain exceptionally alert and flexible, prepared to act in a decisive and timely manner and, in particular, to counter any adverse dynamics that might threaten economic or financial stability,'' Bernanke said.
Futures prices indicate the odds of a half-point rate cut on Jan. 30 jumped to 90 percent today from 76 percent yesterday and 34 percent a week ago. Futures show a 100 percent chance of at least a quarter-point reduction.
`Clear Signal'
``It is a clear signal of a changing economic forecast at the Federal Reserve,'' said Richard Hoey, chief economist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
The FOMC has cut the benchmark rate 1 percentage point to 4.25 percent since September to offset the drag from tighter lending conditions and prolonged housing slump.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists yesterday predicted the Fed will lower the rate to 2.5 percent by year-end. The bank joined Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley in projecting a recession.
Residential investment has declined for seven consecutive quarters, and Fed officials say it may take at least six more months before housing markets turn. Delinquency rates on subprime mortgages climbed to 16.3 percent in the third quarter, the highest in at least a decade.
``The demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting ongoing problems in mortgage markets,'' Bernanke said. ``We also see considerable evidence that banks have come more restrictive in their lending to firms and households.''
Unemployment Rises
Payrolls rose by 18,000 last month, capping the worst year for job creation since 2003. The unemployment rate rose to 5 percent from 4.7 percent the previous month.
Bernanke called the December jobs report ``disappointing,'' while cautioning that it would be ``a mistake to read too much into any one report.''
``However, should the labor market deteriorate, the risks to consumer spending would rise,'' he added.
Bernanke said the Fed's new tool to alleviate bank funding strains may be made permanent. The Fed last month introduced the so-called Term Auction Facility to auction funds to banks beyond the overnight horizon in the federal funds market. The central bank sold $40 billion in two auctions last month and plans $60 billion in two operations in January.
The TAF may ``become a useful permanent addition to the Fed's toolbox,'' Bernanke said. He also said the TAF operations and the ``passage'' of a jump in year-end funding demands caused financial strains to ease ``significantly,'' though spreads remain above the levels before August.
Inflation Pressure
The Fed chairman said higher oil costs were likely to lift inflation measures, including those excluding food and fuel.
The Fed's preferred gauge of consumer prices rose 2.2 percent in November from a year before, the most since March.
Inflation expectations measured by yield differences on 10- year Treasuries and government inflation-indexed bonds have remained between 2.2 percent and 2.4 percent over the past year, a sign that investors have confidence the central bank will maintain price stability.
``Any tendency of inflation expectations to become unmoored or for the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility to be eroded could greatly complicate the task of sustaining price stability and reduce the central bank's policy flexibility to counter shortfalls in growth in the future,'' Bernanke said.
Fed officials predict the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, to rise 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent this year. Crude oil futures reached a record $100.09 barrel on Jan. 3. Oil prices are up 72 percent from a year ago.
source:Bloomberg
MCXARUN
9994500540
``We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks,'' Bernanke said today in his first speech on the economy since the Fed's Dec. 11 meeting. Recent figures suggested the outlook for ``2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced,'' he said.
The comments increased speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, to 3.75 percent, this month. Wall Street analysts say the odds of a recession have increased after a report last week showed a jump in unemployment.
``A number of factors, including higher oil prices, lower equity prices, and softening home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending'' this year, Bernanke said in remarks to the Women in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club in Washington.
The Fed isn't forecasting a recession, the Fed chief said in response to a question after the speech. ``We are forecasting slow growth, but there are downside risks,'' he added. ``It is important to take substantive action against those risks.''
Bigger Reduction
``From the tone of the speech, a 50-basis point cut seems likely,'' Lawrence Lindsey, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush and ex-Fed governor, said from New York. Though it's ``unlikely'' the U.S. is in recession, Bernanke ``is quite right to take precautionary measures right now,'' he said.
The dollar extended declines and shorter-dated Treasuries rallied after Bernanke's remarks, while stocks initially rose before dropping. Yields on two-year Treasuries fell to 2.65 percent at 2:13 p.m. in New York, from 2.72 percent late yesterday. The dollar dropped 0.9 percent to $1.48 per euro.
``The committee must remain exceptionally alert and flexible, prepared to act in a decisive and timely manner and, in particular, to counter any adverse dynamics that might threaten economic or financial stability,'' Bernanke said.
Futures prices indicate the odds of a half-point rate cut on Jan. 30 jumped to 90 percent today from 76 percent yesterday and 34 percent a week ago. Futures show a 100 percent chance of at least a quarter-point reduction.
`Clear Signal'
``It is a clear signal of a changing economic forecast at the Federal Reserve,'' said Richard Hoey, chief economist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
The FOMC has cut the benchmark rate 1 percentage point to 4.25 percent since September to offset the drag from tighter lending conditions and prolonged housing slump.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists yesterday predicted the Fed will lower the rate to 2.5 percent by year-end. The bank joined Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley in projecting a recession.
Residential investment has declined for seven consecutive quarters, and Fed officials say it may take at least six more months before housing markets turn. Delinquency rates on subprime mortgages climbed to 16.3 percent in the third quarter, the highest in at least a decade.
``The demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting ongoing problems in mortgage markets,'' Bernanke said. ``We also see considerable evidence that banks have come more restrictive in their lending to firms and households.''
Unemployment Rises
Payrolls rose by 18,000 last month, capping the worst year for job creation since 2003. The unemployment rate rose to 5 percent from 4.7 percent the previous month.
Bernanke called the December jobs report ``disappointing,'' while cautioning that it would be ``a mistake to read too much into any one report.''
``However, should the labor market deteriorate, the risks to consumer spending would rise,'' he added.
Bernanke said the Fed's new tool to alleviate bank funding strains may be made permanent. The Fed last month introduced the so-called Term Auction Facility to auction funds to banks beyond the overnight horizon in the federal funds market. The central bank sold $40 billion in two auctions last month and plans $60 billion in two operations in January.
The TAF may ``become a useful permanent addition to the Fed's toolbox,'' Bernanke said. He also said the TAF operations and the ``passage'' of a jump in year-end funding demands caused financial strains to ease ``significantly,'' though spreads remain above the levels before August.
Inflation Pressure
The Fed chairman said higher oil costs were likely to lift inflation measures, including those excluding food and fuel.
The Fed's preferred gauge of consumer prices rose 2.2 percent in November from a year before, the most since March.
Inflation expectations measured by yield differences on 10- year Treasuries and government inflation-indexed bonds have remained between 2.2 percent and 2.4 percent over the past year, a sign that investors have confidence the central bank will maintain price stability.
``Any tendency of inflation expectations to become unmoored or for the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility to be eroded could greatly complicate the task of sustaining price stability and reduce the central bank's policy flexibility to counter shortfalls in growth in the future,'' Bernanke said.
Fed officials predict the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, to rise 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent this year. Crude oil futures reached a record $100.09 barrel on Jan. 3. Oil prices are up 72 percent from a year ago.
source:Bloomberg
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base Metals
Base metals fell for a second day in MCX and LME as slumping industrial production inSpain andFrance added to speculation about reduced demand for the metal used in homes and cars. Nickel dropped the most in a month.
· Copper Output at factories, utilities and mines fell 1.5 percent in November in France and declined from a year earlier in Spain for the first time since October 2005, reports today from the governments showed. Copper slid from a two-month high yesterday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. is probably slipping into recession.
· Demand for refined copper in the U.S. will slide 1.5 percent this year while consumption increases 6 percent in China, the Chilean Copper Commission said yesterday in a report.
· UBS AG cut its copper price forecast for this year, citing declining consumption of industrial metals. The price will average $3 a pound in 2008, UBS analysts led by London-based John Reade said in a report today. That's almost 8 percent lower than the previous forecast of $3.25. Copper averaged $3.23 a pound in 2007.
· India's Hindustan Zinc Ltd, increased the price of its Zinc products by INR 3, 500 a metric tonne to INR1,14,100 per tonne Thursday with immediate effect. Meanwhile Lead prices were kept unchanged at INR 1, 15,600 per tonne.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 283-284 for the target of 290 and 294 with stop loss at 276.50
MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Jan: Sell at 97.50-98 for the target of 95 and 93 with stop loss at 99.50
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Jan: Sell at 1140-45 for the target of 1105 and 1090 with stop loss at 1165
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 101 for the target of 103.15 and 104.50 with stop loss at 100.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
· Copper Output at factories, utilities and mines fell 1.5 percent in November in France and declined from a year earlier in Spain for the first time since October 2005, reports today from the governments showed. Copper slid from a two-month high yesterday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. is probably slipping into recession.
· Demand for refined copper in the U.S. will slide 1.5 percent this year while consumption increases 6 percent in China, the Chilean Copper Commission said yesterday in a report.
· UBS AG cut its copper price forecast for this year, citing declining consumption of industrial metals. The price will average $3 a pound in 2008, UBS analysts led by London-based John Reade said in a report today. That's almost 8 percent lower than the previous forecast of $3.25. Copper averaged $3.23 a pound in 2007.
· India's Hindustan Zinc Ltd, increased the price of its Zinc products by INR 3, 500 a metric tonne to INR1,14,100 per tonne Thursday with immediate effect. Meanwhile Lead prices were kept unchanged at INR 1, 15,600 per tonne.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 283-284 for the target of 290 and 294 with stop loss at 276.50
MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Jan: Sell at 97.50-98 for the target of 95 and 93 with stop loss at 99.50
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Jan: Sell at 1140-45 for the target of 1105 and 1090 with stop loss at 1165
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 101 for the target of 103.15 and 104.50 with stop loss at 100.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy
Crude oil on MCX fell over 3% Thursday erasing the gains noted in previous two trading sessions. MCX crude slipped to the red zone today tracking the losses on international exchange. MCX Crude Oil Jan registered a low of Rs. 3665 per barrel while NYMX crude oil traded down and registered a low of $93.25 per barrel.
· Weighing on prices is the bigger than expected rise in petroleum product stocks last week and concerns that slowdown inUS economy will have an impact on oil demand.
· However underpinning prices are supply concerns as US crude oil stocks noted a bigger than expected fall last week and moved to the lowest level in over three years, threats of further violence inNigeria and tensions betweenIran and theU.S.
· Also supporting prices is slightly weaker US dollar. Weaker dollar supports crude oil as it makes oil cheaper for traders using non-dollar currencies and as it used as a hedge against weaker dollar.
· US bombers and fighter jets have dropped 40,000lb (18,144kg) of bombs on suspected al-Qaeda targets on the edge ofBaghdad in a 10-minute air strike.
Weekly Inventory Data:
· Natural gas in storage in theU.S. fell last week but is about 4.6 percent above the five-year average for this time of year, a government report said Thursday.
· The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states fell by 171 billion cubic feet to 2.75 trillion cubic feet for the week ending Jan. 4.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3680-3700 for target of 3760 and 3790 with stop loss below 3655
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 315-312 for the target of 329 and 336 with stop loss at 309
MCXARUN
9994500540
· Weighing on prices is the bigger than expected rise in petroleum product stocks last week and concerns that slowdown inUS economy will have an impact on oil demand.
· However underpinning prices are supply concerns as US crude oil stocks noted a bigger than expected fall last week and moved to the lowest level in over three years, threats of further violence inNigeria and tensions betweenIran and theU.S.
· Also supporting prices is slightly weaker US dollar. Weaker dollar supports crude oil as it makes oil cheaper for traders using non-dollar currencies and as it used as a hedge against weaker dollar.
· US bombers and fighter jets have dropped 40,000lb (18,144kg) of bombs on suspected al-Qaeda targets on the edge ofBaghdad in a 10-minute air strike.
Weekly Inventory Data:
· Natural gas in storage in theU.S. fell last week but is about 4.6 percent above the five-year average for this time of year, a government report said Thursday.
· The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states fell by 171 billion cubic feet to 2.75 trillion cubic feet for the week ending Jan. 4.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3680-3700 for target of 3760 and 3790 with stop loss below 3655
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 315-312 for the target of 329 and 336 with stop loss at 309
MCXARUN
9994500540
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