Global Recap – 3rd Feb, 09

Gold's turned below $900 as underlying fundamentals are weak according to the world's largest gold producer, along with Russia the states reporting rising production while jewellery demand is soft. China's production hit a record 282 tonnes in 2008, the China Gold Association said, up 4.3% from 2007. High prices are scaring off jewellery buyers, who account for almost 70% of global demand for gold. The volume of gold jewellery sales in Abu Dhabi fell 70% in January due to rising prices.

OPEC will discuss a further supply cut of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) when it meets in March if oil prices remain low, an OPEC source told Reuters. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on March 15 in Vienna. Despite OPEC agreeing since September to reduce supply by a total of 4.2 million bpd, oil prices remain around $41 a barrel, a level that officials from the group say is too low. Pending sales of existing U.S. homes rebounded as buyers waded back into the market to take advantage of lower prices and mortgage interest rates.

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in December, surged 6.3% to 87.7, rising for the first time since August. Compared with the same period a year-ago, pending homes sale were up 2.1% in December. Last week, the NAR reported an unexpected rise in existing home sales in December, driven mainly by distressed sales, with prices falling from a year earlier by the biggest margin in over 40 years. Stability in the housing market is critical to the U.S. economy's recovery. The economy slipped into recession in December 2007. Falling house prices, coupled with the stock market collapse and tight access to credit, have hit consumer spending, which accounts for about two thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Copper rose on optimism over U.S. home-sales data, but rising inventories capped greater gains. Pending sales of existing U.S. homes rebounded in December, data showed as buyers waded back into the market to take advantage of lower prices and mortgage interest rates. The Institute for Supply Management's index of U.S. factory activity rose to 35.6 in January from a near three-decade low of 32.9 in December, above expectations, but still showing the sector shrinking. Weak demand prospects were reflected in the rise in inventories. Copper inventories on the LME rose 4,100 tonnes to 495,300 tonnes, the highest since late 2003, while aluminum stocks grew 28,300 tonnes to a record of around 2.84 million tonnes.


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important charts

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DGCX Crude Outlook 3rd Feb, 09

U.S. crude oil futures closed lower almost 4 percent yesterday as economic concerns and an extension of talks easing the immediate threat of a strike by U.S. refinery workers pressured the oil futures complex.

Weakness in heating oil also added pressure on crude oil prices. NYMEX March heating oil settled down 9.16 cents, or 6.39 percent, at $1.3424 a gallon, after trading from $1.3412 to $1.44.


On weekly basis ,U.S. crude futures ended weak last week , as gloomy economic data kept concerns about demand in focus even as the possibility of a refinery worker strike in the United States . Large inventory data from US also added pressure in to the crude oil prices.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

48.40 And 44.30 is the trading range, breaking either side may clear the direction. Resistances are $50.50, 52.40, and 54.30. Supports are at $41.60, $39.30, $ 37.00

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (MAR) - Bullish above $40.28bearish below $39.80


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DGCX Gold Outlook 3rd Feb, 09

U.S. gold futures settled more than 2 percent lower yesterday, holding just above $900 an ounce on a combination contract rollover, technical selling and signs of weak jewelry demand.

At the same time, world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its bullion holdings held steady at record 843.59 tonnes as of Jan. 30

The U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.054 trillion in December, down 1.4% from November's pace. For all of 2008, construction spending totaled $1.079 trillion, down 5.1% from a year ago.

The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing increased from 32.9 to 35.6 in January, better than expected, but still a sign of contraction

International spot gold traded in the range $ 928.20- $ 900.70a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $901.25

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

$933 is the major resistances .If sustain above that level, expect more uptrend. Resistances are $954, $968, $988. Supports are at $909, $899, $881 and $862.

Last day DGCX Gold APR. Traded in the range $930.8-$903.10and closed at $ 927.90

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (APR) - Bullish above $ 908 bearish below $ 902


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safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as long Support of 14100 uptrend seen continue" & SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM LOW=14110 & MAKE HIGH= 14367. Continue to view as long Support of 14100/13975 & 13740 uptrend seen continue. we book profit on buy ard 14120, for the day buy only abv 14375 S/L 14335 and T/p 14425-450/sustain close above 14450 seen new uprally in coming days OR buy ard 13985-990 S/L 13975 and T/p 14050-100 (any time close above 14450 bullish while close below 13740/13350/13025/12750 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

THIS WAS OUR CALL YESTERDAY "buy ard 19530-540 S/L 19500 and T/p 19650-750" & SEE PRICE TURN FROM LOW EXACT 19530 & MAKE HIGH=19895. Continue to view as long Support of 19500 uptrend seen continue. we book profit on buy ard 19530-540, for the day buy abv 19900 S/L 19810 and T/p 20000-20050/sustain above towards 20400 in coming days OR buy ard 19370-380 S/L 19350 and T/p 19500-600 (any time close below 18900-525/18000/17375/16925/16100/ 15775 bearish rally while close above 20050/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


crude

Now as long Resistance of 2060 & 2130 down trend seen continue. we book profit on sell below 2015, for the day sell below 1990 S/L 2005 and T/p 1970-60/below towards 1930-25 and anytime close below 1925 potential towards 1780-1580 in coming days OR sell ard 2075-80 S/L 2085 and T/p 2060-2045 (now crude need to close above 2320/ 2650-75/2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESIST=159.5 AS DAYS HIGH=159. for the day sell below 155 S/L 156.50 and T/p 153.5-153/151/close below towards 139-141 in coming days OR buy only abv 159.5 S/L 158.5 and T/p 161.5/163.25/165 (upside strong rally only on close above 174-175/183.5/ 191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/271 while close below 150.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)


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safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as long Support of 13740 & 13475 uptrend seen continue" & SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM LOW=13753 & MAKE HIGH=14490 in Feb. Continue to view as long Support of 14100/13975 & 13740 uptrend seen continue. for the day buy only abv 14430 & more above 14450 S/L 14385 and T/p 14500-510/ close above 14450 seen new uprally in coming days OR buy ard 14110-120 S/L 14100 and T/p 14190-14260 (any time close above 14450 bullish while close below 13740/13350/13025/12750 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as long Support of 18800 & 18525 uptrend seen continue" & SEE PRICE TURN FROM LOW=18915 & MAKE HIGH= 20038. Continue to view as long Support of 19550 uptrend seen continue. book profit on buy abv 19650, for the day buy only abv 20000 & more abv 20050 S/L 19910 and T/p 20200-20400 OR buy ard 19530-540 S/L 19500 and T/p 19650-750 (any time close below 18900-525/ 18000/17375/16925/16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 20050/ 20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Continue to view, as long support of 1980 chances of bounce back, only close below 1980 & 1930 down rally sharp. for the day sell only below 2015 S/L 2035 and T/p 1990-80/sustain below towards 1930-25 and anytime close below 1925 potential towards 1780-1580 in coming days OR buy abv 2085 S/L 2070 and T/p 2115-30/2160 (now crude need to close above 2320/2650-75/2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)



COPPER

we book profit on sell below 159.5-158.5/156, for the day sell only below 154 & 153.5 S/L 155.75 and T/p 151-150/close below towards 139-141 in coming days OR buy only abv 161.5 S/L 160.5 and T/p 163.25/165 (upside strong rally only on close above 174-175/183.5/191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/ 271 while close below 150.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)




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safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as long Support of 13740 & 13475 uptrend seen continue" & SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM LOW=13753 & MAKE HIGH=14172. Continue to view as long Support of 13740 uptrend seen continue. book profit on buy abv 13950, fresh buy only abv 14225 S/L 14170 and T/p 14260/towards 14375-400/close above 14400 seen new uprally OR buy ard 13890-900 S/L 13875 and T/p 13960-14000 (any time close above 14225-400bullish while close below 13750/13475/13000/12725/12330/ 11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as long Support of 18800 & 18525 uptrend seen continue" & SEE PRICE TURN FROM LOW=18915 & MAKE HIGH= 19580. Continue to view as long Support of 18915 uptrend seen continue. for the day buy only abv 19650 S/L 19560 and T/p 19750-800/close above 19650 test 20000 atleast/towards 20400 in coming days OR buy ard 19100-110 S/L 19075 and T/p 19200-19300 (any time close below 18900-525/18000/17375/16925/ 16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 19600/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Continue to view, as long support of 1980 chances of bounce back, only below 1980 & 1930 down rally sharp. for the day buy only abv 2085 S/L 2065 and T/p 2110-2150 OR sell below 2010 S/L 2025 and T/p 1990-80/1950/1925/ sustain close below 1925 potential towards 1780-1580 in coming days (now crude need to close above 2320/2650-75/2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


we book profit on sell below 159.5-158.5, for the day sell only below 156 & 155.5 S/L 157.10 and T/p 154.5/152.5/ 150/close below towards 139-40 in coming days OR buy abv 161.5 S/L 160.5 and T/p 163.25/165 (upside strong rally only on close above 174-175/183.5/191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/ 271 while close below 150.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)


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