DGCX Crude Outlook 28th Jan, 09

U.S. crude futures settled 9 percent lower yesterday, declining on reports of plunging U.S. consumer confidence and home prices that kept concerns about slumping oil demand in focus. Expectation of build up in weekly inventory also influenced the oil prices

According to the data, The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities was down 18.2% in November from a year ago, roughly as expected.

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 38.6 to 37.7 in January, weaker than expected. Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing improved from -55 to -49 in January, still a sign of contraction.

Weak movements in natural gas futures also adversely affected the crude oil movements.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

Expecting bullish movements above $44.25; Resistances are $47, $50 and $55. Supports are at $41.70, $39.30, $ 35.50

DWTI (JAN) traded in the range $47.08 - $41.75and closed at $41.58

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (January) - Bullish above $41.73bearish below $41.20


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DGCX Gold Outlook 28th Jan, 09

U.S. gold futures ended lower yesterday after a three-session winning streak, as investors locked in profits after the price of bullion recently rallied based on safe-haven buying amid economic worries and strong investment demand. Weak oil prices also adversely affected the precious metals movements. Oil price dropped more than $4 to below $42 per barrel, triggered profit taking in gold futures.

At the same time dollar fell against the euro yesterdays after data showed prices of U.S. single-family homes dropped by a record 18.2 percent in November from a year earlier.

According to the data, The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities was down 18.2% in November from a year ago, roughly as expected.

But on Monday gold rose above $900 an ounce to the highest level in more than three months as interest in bullion as a haven from risk and a weaker dollar against the euro supported buying. Fresh investment demand in light of weak world economy also supported the precious metals movements.

International spot gold traded in the range $ 906.90- $ 891.50 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $897.30

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

Gold prices if sustain above 905 is bullish. Resistances are $918, $833, $952 and 988. Supports are at $892, $875, $861.

Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $909.30-$894.80and closed at $ 899.80

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 903 bearish below $ 897

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safe trade calls

GOLD

US Fed Interest Rate decision schedule today expected at 12.45 night. SINCE PRICE BREAK 13325 WE ANALYSE UPTREND & SEE PRICE NOW. THIS WAS OUR VIEW "close above 13800 towards 14200-300 Range atleast" & SEE HIGH MADE TILL NOW=14214.Continue to view as long Support of 13740 & 13475 uptrend seen continue. for the day buy abv 14150 S/L 14120 and T/p 14185-225/sustain abv towards 14350 and anytime close above 14400 Xpect new uprally for coming weeks OR buy ard 13750-760 S/L 13740 and T/p 13810-860 (any time close above 14200 -400 bullish while close below 13475/ 13000/12725/12330/11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

THIS WAS OUR VIEW "close above 18850 test 19500-600 Range atleast & SEE HIGH REGISTER TILL NOW= 19595. Continue to view as long Support of 18800 & 18525 uptrend seen continue. we book profit on buy abv 19400, for the day buy only abv 19550-600 S/L 19450 and T/p 19750-800/ towards 20000 OR buy ard 18970-980 S/L 18950 and T/p 19075-19175 (any time close below 18525/18000/17375/ 16925/16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 19600/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release today. Now as long support of 1990 & 1950 some bounce back expected buy uptrend only close above 2320. for the day buy only abv 2155 S/L 2135 and T/p 2180-2230 OR buy ard 1995-2000 S/L 1990 and T/p 2030-40/2080, only sustain below 1990 & 1950 down trend and close below 1930 potential towards 1780 - 1580 in coming days (now crude need to close above 2320/2650-75/ 2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

Now as Long support of 158.5/154 & 151 some bounce back expected. for the day buy abv 163.5 S/L 162.2 and T/p 165-167 OR sell below 158.5 S/L 160 and T/p 156-154.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 174-175/183.5/ 191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/271 while close below 150.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)


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9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD


PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVELS ON BOTH SIDES. Continue to view as long Support of 13170 & 13000 uptrend seen continue. we book profit on buy abv 13575, fresh buy abv 13550 S/L 13500 and T/p 13625-650/abv towards 13800 and sustain close above 13800 towards 14200-300 Range in coming days OR buy ard 13160-170 S/L 13150 and T/p 13250-300 (any time close above 13650-13800/14400 bullish while close below 13000/12725/12330/11950/ 11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Continue to view as long Support of 18275 & 18000 and with close abv 18850 sharp uprally expected. we book profit on buy abv 18450/18650, fresh buy only abv 18750 S/L 18650 and T/p 18850/close above 18850 test 19500-600 Range atleast in coming days OR buy ard 18190-210 S/L 18175 and T/p 18280-18375 (any time close below 18000/17375/16925/16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 18850/ 19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release today. Continue to view as long Resist 2155 & 2255 down trend seen continue. for the day sell below 2065 S/L 2085 and T/p 2040-2015/1990/below towards 1925 and anytime sustain close below 1925 potential towards 1780 & 1580 in coming days OR sell ard 2050-55 S/L 2160 and T/p 2030-2115 (now crude need to close above 2255/2650-75/ 2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

Continue to view, as long Resistance of 166/169.5 & 171.5 down trend seen continue. for the day sell only below 156.5 S/L 157.75 and T/p 155.5/sustain below towards 151.5 OR sell ard 162.4-162.6 S/L 163 and T/p 161.5/160 (upside strong rally only on close above 175/183.5/191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/ 271 while close below 155.5/151.5/144/ 138.5 bearish for medium term)


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Global Recap -21st Jan, 09

Crude oil revolved around $40 a barrel as further evidence emerged of a deepening global slowdown that is crushing demand for fuel. The global oil demand is expected to contract more sharply in 2009 than previously expected, as the deepening economic crisis spreads to the developing world. World oil demand is predicted to fall by 430,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to 85.43 million bpd, with demand growth in emerging economies falling by more than half compared to 2008. Moreover China in its six-year commodity price rally started in 2002, was expected to release fourth-quarter GDP data this week that economists say will show 7.0% growth, the slowest pace of expansion in nearly a decade for the world's third-biggest economy. Crude oil stocks in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, rose by 1.4 million barrels last week, with distillate stocks seen down 1.4 million barrels due to cold winter weather. Gasoline stocks are expected to be up 2.1 million barrels, up 5.1 million barrels from a year ago.

Gold eased but held above $850 an ounce as interest in the metal as a haven from risk supported prices. A combination of underperformance in other assets, fears over economic growth and the falling interest rate environment are all boosting the appeal of gold. On the currency markets, the euro firmed a touch against the dollar amid a spate of bad news from the euro zone economies. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet played down the threat of deflation as he hinted at further interest rate cuts and dismissed speculation about a euro zone break-up. Trichet said that while the central bank was wary of cutting interest rates too low, policymakers had not said the current 2% setting was the lowest level. Financial turmoil and downgrades to Greece and Spain's credit ratings. The economy is expected to contract by 1.6% this year, twice the 0.8% fall seen in last month's poll, but slightly better than the 1.9% contraction forecast by the European Commission.

Copper dwindled and aluminum slumped to a 5-1/2 year low as news that world's biggest miner BHP Billiton was cutting jobs due to the global recession hit market sentiment. BHP, which until now had set itself apart from other miners by maintaining output, writing off $1.6 billion, as it battles a collapse in commodity prices. Further rise in copper and aluminum stocks also weighed on prices. Aluminum producers have moved towards cutting output but there is so many surpluses metal around in the world that making its way into the warehouses. But the supply cutbacks have so far failed to support metal prices as the market focused on demand, which analysts said had dried up in the last couple of months. Falling base metal prices due to a slump in demand have forced miners to scale-back production and downsize. Consumption in China temporarily cools with most firms having finished their purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Our trend reversal level was 13325, see break yesterday and make High=13637 within few hours. Now as long Support of 13170 & 13000 uptrend seen continue. for the day buy abv 13575 S/L 13530 and T/p 13625-650/abv towards 13800 and sustain close above 13800 towards 14200-300 Range in coming days OR buy ard 13310-315 S/L 13300 and T/p 13370-410 (any time close above 13325/13575/13800/14400 bullish while close below 12800-12600/ 12330/11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Now as long Support of 18300 & 18000 and with close abv 18850 sharp uprally expected. we book profit on buy abv 18450, fresh buy only abv 18650 S/L 18550 and T/p 18750-850/close above 18850 test 19500-600 Range atleast in coming days OR buy ard 18070-80 S/L 18050 and T/p 18170-18300 (any time close below 18000/17375/16925/16100/ 15775 bearish rally while close above 18850/19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


THIS WAS OUR WORDS "close below 2015 towards 1925-40 Range atleast" & SEE LOW MAKE=1933 AND ALSO TURN FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL=1925. Continue to view as long Resist 2155 & 2255 down trend seen continue. we book profit on sell below 2045-2015/1970, for the day sell below 2000 S/L 2025 and T/p 1975/ 1950/1925/sustain close below 1925 potential towards 1780 & 1580 in coming days OR sell ard 2100-2110 S/L 2115 and T/p 2085-2060 (now crude need to close above 2255/2650-75/ 2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


Continue to view, as long Resistance of 169.5 & 171.5 down trend seen continue. we book profit on sell below 165, fresh sell below 163.5 S/L 164.7 and T/p 161.5/below towards 157.5/ 155.5 in coming days OR sell ard 168.3-168.6 S/L 169 and T/p 167-165.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 175/183.5/191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/ 271 while close below 161.5/155.5/ 151.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)



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9994500540

Global Recap – 20th Jan, 09

Crude oil rallied in volatile trading as the NYMEX February crude contract approached expiration. Crude oil had slumped amid concerns over slumping demand in a weak economy and Russia's resumption of natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine. A stronger dollar and weaker equities had also weighed on the oil complex. Russian natural gas reached Europe via Ukraine for the first time in two weeks. The dollar climbed broadly, boosted by sterling's tumble to a 7-1/2 year low, while the view that the euro zone will suffer a deep recession pushed the euro to a six-week low. Elsewhere OPEC is fully enforcing its recent supply cuts, which should be enough to boost prices that have slumped below $40 a barrel, OPEC's president told. Kuwait has informed all customers of cuts in oil supply in line with OPEC's December curbs, state oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corp said.

Gold surged amid market talk of a large order, with firm investment demand for gold as a haven from risk fuelling buying of the precious metal. Gold shrugged off early weakness linked to a strengthening U.S. dollar and weaker oil prices. The dollar rose to a six-week high against the euro as traders worried about the outlook for the euro zone economy, after the European Commission issued a grim forecast for 2009 an Standard and Poor's cut Spain's debt ratings. The other main external driver of gold, crude oil, steadied after tumbling almost 10% in earlier trade, after Russia and Ukraine agreed on a gas deal that will help secure supplies to Europe and traders worried over the outlook for demand. Overall, fears over the outlook for the global economy and the financial system are boosting interest in products like exchange-traded funds which issue securities backed by actual stocks of gold.

Copper tumbled on a stronger dollar and as a jump in inventories added to concerns about demand. However supplies are still growing as evidenced by the inventory accumulation so there is more pain to come. Copper dragged all the industrial metals lower, with aluminum falling to its lowest price since July 2003 and nickel down around 4%. Stocks of copper and aluminum, the two biggest contracts on the LME, have been growing as prices for the two metals have slumped about 60% since last July's record highs. Furthermore copper inventories in LME warehouses jumped 15,425 tonnes the biggest one-day jump since Sept. 4 to 409,100 tonnes, the highest price since January 2004 when prices were around $2,375. China's economy in the fourth quarter probably grew 7.0% from a year earlier.


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