Global Recap -21st Jan, 09

Crude oil revolved around $40 a barrel as further evidence emerged of a deepening global slowdown that is crushing demand for fuel. The global oil demand is expected to contract more sharply in 2009 than previously expected, as the deepening economic crisis spreads to the developing world. World oil demand is predicted to fall by 430,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to 85.43 million bpd, with demand growth in emerging economies falling by more than half compared to 2008. Moreover China in its six-year commodity price rally started in 2002, was expected to release fourth-quarter GDP data this week that economists say will show 7.0% growth, the slowest pace of expansion in nearly a decade for the world's third-biggest economy. Crude oil stocks in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, rose by 1.4 million barrels last week, with distillate stocks seen down 1.4 million barrels due to cold winter weather. Gasoline stocks are expected to be up 2.1 million barrels, up 5.1 million barrels from a year ago.

Gold eased but held above $850 an ounce as interest in the metal as a haven from risk supported prices. A combination of underperformance in other assets, fears over economic growth and the falling interest rate environment are all boosting the appeal of gold. On the currency markets, the euro firmed a touch against the dollar amid a spate of bad news from the euro zone economies. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet played down the threat of deflation as he hinted at further interest rate cuts and dismissed speculation about a euro zone break-up. Trichet said that while the central bank was wary of cutting interest rates too low, policymakers had not said the current 2% setting was the lowest level. Financial turmoil and downgrades to Greece and Spain's credit ratings. The economy is expected to contract by 1.6% this year, twice the 0.8% fall seen in last month's poll, but slightly better than the 1.9% contraction forecast by the European Commission.

Copper dwindled and aluminum slumped to a 5-1/2 year low as news that world's biggest miner BHP Billiton was cutting jobs due to the global recession hit market sentiment. BHP, which until now had set itself apart from other miners by maintaining output, writing off $1.6 billion, as it battles a collapse in commodity prices. Further rise in copper and aluminum stocks also weighed on prices. Aluminum producers have moved towards cutting output but there is so many surpluses metal around in the world that making its way into the warehouses. But the supply cutbacks have so far failed to support metal prices as the market focused on demand, which analysts said had dried up in the last couple of months. Falling base metal prices due to a slump in demand have forced miners to scale-back production and downsize. Consumption in China temporarily cools with most firms having finished their purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Our trend reversal level was 13325, see break yesterday and make High=13637 within few hours. Now as long Support of 13170 & 13000 uptrend seen continue. for the day buy abv 13575 S/L 13530 and T/p 13625-650/abv towards 13800 and sustain close above 13800 towards 14200-300 Range in coming days OR buy ard 13310-315 S/L 13300 and T/p 13370-410 (any time close above 13325/13575/13800/14400 bullish while close below 12800-12600/ 12330/11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Now as long Support of 18300 & 18000 and with close abv 18850 sharp uprally expected. we book profit on buy abv 18450, fresh buy only abv 18650 S/L 18550 and T/p 18750-850/close above 18850 test 19500-600 Range atleast in coming days OR buy ard 18070-80 S/L 18050 and T/p 18170-18300 (any time close below 18000/17375/16925/16100/ 15775 bearish rally while close above 18850/19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


THIS WAS OUR WORDS "close below 2015 towards 1925-40 Range atleast" & SEE LOW MAKE=1933 AND ALSO TURN FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL=1925. Continue to view as long Resist 2155 & 2255 down trend seen continue. we book profit on sell below 2045-2015/1970, for the day sell below 2000 S/L 2025 and T/p 1975/ 1950/1925/sustain close below 1925 potential towards 1780 & 1580 in coming days OR sell ard 2100-2110 S/L 2115 and T/p 2085-2060 (now crude need to close above 2255/2650-75/ 2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


Continue to view, as long Resistance of 169.5 & 171.5 down trend seen continue. we book profit on sell below 165, fresh sell below 163.5 S/L 164.7 and T/p 161.5/below towards 157.5/ 155.5 in coming days OR sell ard 168.3-168.6 S/L 169 and T/p 167-165.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 175/183.5/191.5/197.5/204.5/219/238/ 271 while close below 161.5/155.5/ 151.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)



MCXARUN
9994500540

Global Recap – 20th Jan, 09

Crude oil rallied in volatile trading as the NYMEX February crude contract approached expiration. Crude oil had slumped amid concerns over slumping demand in a weak economy and Russia's resumption of natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine. A stronger dollar and weaker equities had also weighed on the oil complex. Russian natural gas reached Europe via Ukraine for the first time in two weeks. The dollar climbed broadly, boosted by sterling's tumble to a 7-1/2 year low, while the view that the euro zone will suffer a deep recession pushed the euro to a six-week low. Elsewhere OPEC is fully enforcing its recent supply cuts, which should be enough to boost prices that have slumped below $40 a barrel, OPEC's president told. Kuwait has informed all customers of cuts in oil supply in line with OPEC's December curbs, state oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corp said.

Gold surged amid market talk of a large order, with firm investment demand for gold as a haven from risk fuelling buying of the precious metal. Gold shrugged off early weakness linked to a strengthening U.S. dollar and weaker oil prices. The dollar rose to a six-week high against the euro as traders worried about the outlook for the euro zone economy, after the European Commission issued a grim forecast for 2009 an Standard and Poor's cut Spain's debt ratings. The other main external driver of gold, crude oil, steadied after tumbling almost 10% in earlier trade, after Russia and Ukraine agreed on a gas deal that will help secure supplies to Europe and traders worried over the outlook for demand. Overall, fears over the outlook for the global economy and the financial system are boosting interest in products like exchange-traded funds which issue securities backed by actual stocks of gold.

Copper tumbled on a stronger dollar and as a jump in inventories added to concerns about demand. However supplies are still growing as evidenced by the inventory accumulation so there is more pain to come. Copper dragged all the industrial metals lower, with aluminum falling to its lowest price since July 2003 and nickel down around 4%. Stocks of copper and aluminum, the two biggest contracts on the LME, have been growing as prices for the two metals have slumped about 60% since last July's record highs. Furthermore copper inventories in LME warehouses jumped 15,425 tonnes the biggest one-day jump since Sept. 4 to 409,100 tonnes, the highest price since January 2004 when prices were around $2,375. China's economy in the fourth quarter probably grew 7.0% from a year earlier.


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD


OUR VIEW "as long Resistance 13180 down trend continue" & SEE PRICE TURN FROM HIGH=13175 & CLOSE LOWER. Continue to view as long Resistance 13180 & 13325 down trend seen continue. for the day sell below 13050 S/L 13085 and T/p 13020/ 12970/upto 12925 OR sell ard 13300-310 S/L 13325 and T/p 13225-150, only close above 13325 uptrend seen again (any time close above 13325/13575/ 13800/14400 bullish while close below 12800-12600/12330/11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER


Continue to view as long Resistance of 18450-18550 down trend seen continue. for the day sell below 18100 S/L 18200 and T/p 18000/17930/towards 17800 OR buy only abv 18450 S/L 18350 and T/p 18550-650/ towards 18850 and close above 18850 test 19500-600 Range atleast in coming days (any time close below 17375/ 16925/16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 18850/ 19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


THIS WAS OUR WORDS "close below 2015 towards 1925-40 Range atleast in coming days" & SEE LOW MAKE=1976. Continue to view as long Resist 2100/2175 & 2255 down trend seen continue. book profit on sell below 2045-2015, for the day sell below 1970 S/L 1985 and T/p 1950/towards 1925 and close below 1925 potential towards 1780 & 1580 in coming days OR sell ard 2070-75 S/L 2080 and T/p 2050-40 (now crude need to close above 2255/ 2650-75/2950 for bullish rally while close below 1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


THIS WAS OUR VIEW "as long Resist 169.5 down trend" & SEE TURN FROM HIGH=169.45 AFTER MAKE LOW=164.3. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 169.5 & 171.5 down trend seen continue. for the day sell below 165 S/L 166.5 and T/p 163-161.5/below towards 157.5/155.5 in coming days OR sell ard 170.8-171 S/L 171.5 and T/p 169-167 (upside strong rally only on close above 175/183.5/191.5/197.5/ 204.5/219/238/271 while close below 161.5/155.5/151.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)



MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 905/TOWARDS 930 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 890 .... WHILE CLOSE BELOW $ 800/740/700 & $ 680 TOWARDS $ 600 IN COMING DAYS


SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 7.90 ATLEAST / TOWARDS $ 7.30 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 10.15 / $ 9.10 & 8.40... WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 11.75 / 12.30 & $ 14 BULLISH RALLY AGAIN FOR MEDIUM 2 LONG TERM


ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 82 - 87.5 RANGE ATLEAST WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 79 .... WHILE CLOSE BELOW 69.5/68.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN (JAN)


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 68 ATLEAST/TOWARDS 73 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 65 & 66 .... WHILE CLOSE BELOW 58.75-58 TEST 57 - 55 RANGE ATLEAST (JAN)


NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 710 - 750 RANGE WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 655 .... WHILE CLOSE BELOW 498 TOWARDS 480-70/450 RANGE (JAN)


COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 182 - 188 RANGE ATLEAST WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 175 .... WHILE CLOSE BELOW 155.5/151.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN(FEB)



MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Continue to view as long Resistance 13080/13200 & 13325 down trend continue. for the day sell below 12790 & 12775 S/L 12820 and T/p 12725-12650/ below new down rally OR sell ard 13010-20 S/L 13025 and T/p 12965-12920 (any time close above 13325/ 13575/13800/14400 bullish while close below 12650-600/12330/11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Continue to view as long Resistance of 17900 & 18050 down trend seen continue. for the day sell below 17475-450 S/L 17560 and T/p 17350-250/ towards 17100 in coming days OR sell ard 17890-900 S/L 17925 and T/p 17800-700 (any time close below 17450/16925/16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 18050/18850/19475/ 20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Continue to view as long Resist 2205 & 2255 down trend seen continue. for the day sell below 2120 & 2110 S/L 2135 and T/p 2095/close below test 2025-15 atleast/towards 1925 in coming days OR sell ard 2198-2205 S/L 2210 and T/p 2170-2155 (now crude need to close above 2250/2650-75/2950 for bullish rally while close below 2095/2015/1925 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


Continue to view, as long Resistance of 167.5 & 171.5 down trend seen continue. book profit on sell below 164, fresh sell below 160-159.5 S/L 161.5 and T/p 158/155.5/below towards 151.5 OR sell ard 167-167.25 S/L 167.5 and T/p 165.5/164 (upside strong rally only on close above 175/183.5/191.5/197.5/ 204.5/219/238/271 while close below 155.5/151.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR VIEW "below 13090 test 13875-900 Range atleast" & SEE PRICE MAKE LOW=12850 AFTER BREAK 13090. Continue to view as long Resistance 13200/13325 down trend continue. for the day sell below 12900 S/L 12950 and T/p 12850/sustain below towards 12775 atleast/towards 12700 in coming days OR sell ard 13280-290 S/L 13300 and T/p 13200-170 (any time close above 13575/13800/ 14400 bullish while close below 12650-600/12330/ 11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

For the day sell only below 17900 S/L 18000 and T/p 17800-750/below towards 17625/close below new down rally OR sell ard 18320-330 S/L 18350 and T/p 18220-160 (any time close below 17900/17625/16925/16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 18850/ 19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


THIS WAS OUR WORDS IN REPORT Dt. 9 JAN "close below 1990 seen towards 1875-1825 Range again in coming days" & SEE LOW MAKE YESTERDAY=1849. Continue to view as long Resist 1970 down rally continue. book profit on sell below 1940, fresh sell below 1840 S/L 1855 and T/p 1825/ towards 1790-95/ below 1790 & 1750 seen new down rally OR sell ard 1920-25 S/L 1930 and T/p 1900-1880 (now crude need to close above 2150/2450/ 2560/2860 for bullish rally while close below 1790-1750 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


book profit on sell below 166, for the day sell below 160.5 S/L 161.8 and T/p 159.5/158.5/sustain below towards 154 OR sell ard 167.4-167.6 S/L 168 and T/p 165.5/164 (upside strong rally only on close above 175/183.5/191.5/197.5/ 204.5/219/238/271 while close below 158.5/151.5/144/138.5 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540