MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS
Gold assets held in exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to 1.708 million ounces, from 1.615 million on Dec. 2, the Jersey, Channel Islands-based company said yesterday.
The US Federal Reserve meets on Dec. 16 to decide on further rate cut the world’s largest economy in recession.
MARKET RECAP
Last week, Spot gold fell sharply losing almost $63 over the week as selling pressure was witnessed at higher levels. The dollar continued to strengthen during the week whereas crude prices continued to make multi-year lows, both leading to a sell-off in bullion prices. Also, with the global equities markets still suffering from bearish sentiments and negative news, sell-off across various asset classes can still be seen across the world. Last week, the Bank of England (BOE) dropped its key lending rate by a full percentage point to 2%, the lowest level for the benchmark since 1939. The European Central Bank (ECB) also slashed its key lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.5%. The cut is the largest in the ECB's 10-year history.
In currency market, the Euro trading sideways for the week with short-term support level of 1.2540 whereas resistance is seen at 1.2870. The overall trend still remains sideways-down unless we see a close above 1.2842 and consistent trading above the same. The low of 1.2328 made on 28th October shall continue to act as a very strong support.
OUTLOOK
The overall trend remains down for Gold as the $ is still going strong. Also, inflationary pressures have eased considerably with the sharp fall in crude prices. While the dollar has been the beneficiary of bigger-than-expected rate cuts in Europe, last week’s U.S. jobs data (Nonfarm Payrolls) could pressurize the dollar with the focus now shifting back toward the U.S. economic numbers. Also, a 50 basis point rate cut by the US Fed is currently being expected by market participants in the next week.
Deflation continues to be the key macro development to watch, as gold’s attraction has been waning. The movement in gold prices is presently being driven primarily by the Dollar direction. The Dollar Index has resistance at 87.40 & support at 85.60 for the day. Currency & crude shall continue to play an important role in impacting bullion prices in coming days.
On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $772/$782 whereas resistance is seen at $760/$752. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $9.58/$9.30 whereas resistance is seen at $9.80/$10.00.
MCX Feb Gold has support at 12100/11950 whereas resistance is seen at 12260/12390 levels whereas MCX March Silver shall find support at 16550/16270 whereas resistance is seen at 16820/16980 levels.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, December 8, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resist 12400 down trend likely to continue, book profit on sell below 12300, for the day sell only below 12050 S/L 12090 and T/p 12000-11980/11950/towards 11800 in coming days OR sell ard 12340-350 S/L 12360 and T/p 12300-250 (any time close above 12400/12950/13175-13250/ 13650/14400 bullish while close below 11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resistance 16700 & 17000 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16300 S/L 16400 and T/p 16200-100/ sustain close below test 16000-15800 in coming days OR sell ard 16820-830 S/L 16850 and T/p 16750-675, only sustain abv 16875 & 17000 avoid short sell (any time close below 16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 17600/18300/ 19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR VIEW ON 29-11-2008 REPORT "as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue" AND PRICE TURN FROM HIGH 2766 THAT DAY AND MAKE LOW=2050 FRIDAY. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2240, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2690/2550/ 2420/2350/2200, for the day sell only below 2050 S/L 2065 and T/p 2030-2000 OR sell ard 2158-65 S/L 2170 and T/p 2135-2110 (now crude need to close above 2240/2555/2775/2970/3040/ 3200/3525/ 3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2050
bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 170 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 186.5/182.5/176.5-175.5/169.5, for the day sell only below 161 S/L 162.5 and T/p 159.5-159/157 OR sell ard 167.2-167.5 S/L 168 and T/p 166-165 (upside strong rally only on close above 170/183.5/191.5/197.5/ 204.5/219/238/271 while close below 159.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resist 12400 down trend likely to continue, book profit on sell below 12300, for the day sell only below 12050 S/L 12090 and T/p 12000-11980/11950/towards 11800 in coming days OR sell ard 12340-350 S/L 12360 and T/p 12300-250 (any time close above 12400/12950/13175-13250/ 13650/14400 bullish while close below 11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
Continue to view as long Resistance 16700 & 17000 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16300 S/L 16400 and T/p 16200-100/ sustain close below test 16000-15800 in coming days OR sell ard 16820-830 S/L 16850 and T/p 16750-675, only sustain abv 16875 & 17000 avoid short sell (any time close below 16100/15775 bearish rally while close above 17600/18300/ 19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR VIEW ON 29-11-2008 REPORT "as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue" AND PRICE TURN FROM HIGH 2766 THAT DAY AND MAKE LOW=2050 FRIDAY. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2240, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2690/2550/ 2420/2350/2200, for the day sell only below 2050 S/L 2065 and T/p 2030-2000 OR sell ard 2158-65 S/L 2170 and T/p 2135-2110 (now crude need to close above 2240/2555/2775/2970/3040/ 3200/3525/ 3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2050
bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view, as long Resistance of 170 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 186.5/182.5/176.5-175.5/169.5, for the day sell only below 161 S/L 162.5 and T/p 159.5-159/157 OR sell ard 167.2-167.5 S/L 168 and T/p 166-165 (upside strong rally only on close above 170/183.5/191.5/197.5/ 204.5/219/238/271 while close below 159.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
nymex crude outlook
U.S. crude futures fell below $51 yesterday and settled lower as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But on Monday crude oil closed in the green in line with the stock rally .Stocks rallied after the announcement of U.S governments rescue package for Citigroup .U.S. government agreed to inject $20 billion of new capital to rescue troubled Citigroup yesterday. Investors remain cautious due to concerns about a global recession; they welcomed the U.S. government's $300 billion-plus lifeline to prevent the collapse of the world's largest banking group
According to the International Energy Agency, the Oil prices will remain under downward pressure in 2009 as the weak global economy hits demand. And also a report says that the oil companies are booking tankers to store millions of barrels of crude oil at sea, waiting for demand and prices to rise.
All the oil traders are keeping their eyes to the OPEC meeting that will be held on Nov. 29 in Egypt and again on Dec. 17 in Algeria.
According to a monthly report from the American Petroleum Institutions the oil demand had dropped 5% from January through October -- marking their largest decline since the early 1980s,
As crude-oil prices has drooped more than 63% from their record high as the credit crunch deepened. Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $54.66-$50.52, and settled at $50.65 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI dec.)
Weak movements expected below $48.20, otherwise expecting some recovery .Resistances are $51 $54.30, $58.80, Supports seen at $44.80, $40.20, and$ 35.
DWTI (DEC) traded in the range $53.85 - $50.60 and closed at $50.77
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (DEC) - Bullish above $51.20 bearish below $50.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But on Monday crude oil closed in the green in line with the stock rally .Stocks rallied after the announcement of U.S governments rescue package for Citigroup .U.S. government agreed to inject $20 billion of new capital to rescue troubled Citigroup yesterday. Investors remain cautious due to concerns about a global recession; they welcomed the U.S. government's $300 billion-plus lifeline to prevent the collapse of the world's largest banking group
According to the International Energy Agency, the Oil prices will remain under downward pressure in 2009 as the weak global economy hits demand. And also a report says that the oil companies are booking tankers to store millions of barrels of crude oil at sea, waiting for demand and prices to rise.
All the oil traders are keeping their eyes to the OPEC meeting that will be held on Nov. 29 in Egypt and again on Dec. 17 in Algeria.
According to a monthly report from the American Petroleum Institutions the oil demand had dropped 5% from January through October -- marking their largest decline since the early 1980s,
As crude-oil prices has drooped more than 63% from their record high as the credit crunch deepened. Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $54.66-$50.52, and settled at $50.65 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI dec.)
Weak movements expected below $48.20, otherwise expecting some recovery .Resistances are $51 $54.30, $58.80, Supports seen at $44.80, $40.20, and$ 35.
DWTI (DEC) traded in the range $53.85 - $50.60 and closed at $50.77
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (DEC) - Bullish above $51.20 bearish below $50.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
future gold outlook
U.S. gold futures declined from 6 weeks high and closed slightly lower as oil tumbled in the international market.
U.S. crude oil futures settled lower yesterday as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But the dollar continued its weakness against the major currencies yesterday as the expectation of diminished demand in dollar as safe heaven. New U.S. measures to boost consumer lending helped ease concerns about the financial crisis, and changed the view in dollar. The US GDP also influences the dollar movements.
According to the World Gold Council, Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
International spot gold traded in the range $ 830.1– $ 801.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $820.70
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Continuation of the bullish movements expected above $816.Resistances are $829 $849, $869,913 Supports seen at $802, $771, $754.
Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $832.2-803 and closed at $ 816
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 819.50 bearish below $814
MCXARUN
9994500540
U.S. crude oil futures settled lower yesterday as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.
But the dollar continued its weakness against the major currencies yesterday as the expectation of diminished demand in dollar as safe heaven. New U.S. measures to boost consumer lending helped ease concerns about the financial crisis, and changed the view in dollar. The US GDP also influences the dollar movements.
According to the World Gold Council, Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.
International spot gold traded in the range $ 830.1– $ 801.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $820.70
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Continuation of the bullish movements expected above $816.Resistances are $829 $849, $869,913 Supports seen at $802, $771, $754.
Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $832.2-803 and closed at $ 816
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 819.50 bearish below $814
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES AS SUPPORT GIVEN=12920 & LOW= 12928 WHILE RESISTANCE GIVEN= 13250 AND TURN FROM HIGH=13234. Continue to view, as long Resist 13250 correction expected towards 12700/ 12450 in coming days. for the day sell only below 12920 S/L 12970 and T/p 12800-725/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 13235-240 S/L 13250 and T/p 13160-13100, sustain abv 13250 avoid short sell (any time close above 13250/13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=17600 AS DAYS HIGH=17585. for the day sell only below 17000 S/L 17080 and T/p 16940-16800/below down rally OR buy only abv 17500 S/L 17425 and T/p 17600/ 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2725/2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on buy ard 2770-72, for the day sell below 2550 S/L 2570 and T/p 2530-2500/sustain close below test 2375 in coming days OR sell ard 2655-60 S/L 2665 and T/p 2635-20 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
As long Resistance 189.5-190 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 178.5 S/L 180 and T/p 176/ 173.5-172.5/sustain below test 165 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 186.8-187 S/L 187.5 and T/p 185-183.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/248/270/305/316/ 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES AS SUPPORT GIVEN=12920 & LOW= 12928 WHILE RESISTANCE GIVEN= 13250 AND TURN FROM HIGH=13234. Continue to view, as long Resist 13250 correction expected towards 12700/ 12450 in coming days. for the day sell only below 12920 S/L 12970 and T/p 12800-725/sustain below down rally sharp OR sell ard 13235-240 S/L 13250 and T/p 13160-13100, sustain abv 13250 avoid short sell (any time close above 13250/13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=17600 AS DAYS HIGH=17585. for the day sell only below 17000 S/L 17080 and T/p 16940-16800/below down rally OR buy only abv 17500 S/L 17425 and T/p 17600/ 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2725/2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on buy ard 2770-72, for the day sell below 2550 S/L 2570 and T/p 2530-2500/sustain close below test 2375 in coming days OR sell ard 2655-60 S/L 2665 and T/p 2635-20 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
As long Resistance 189.5-190 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 178.5 S/L 180 and T/p 176/ 173.5-172.5/sustain below test 165 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 186.8-187 S/L 187.5 and T/p 185-183.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/248/270/305/316/ 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Now as long Resist 13250 downside correction expected towards 12700/ 12450. for the day sell below 12975 S/L 13010 and T/p 12925-850/800 OR sell ard 13238-245 S/L 13260 and T/p 13200 -150 (any time close above 13250/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 12700/12075/11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
our S/L was hit on sell but this was our view yesterday "Sustain above 16850 avoid short sell" & see Price make High of 17610. for the day buy only abv 17625 S/L 17500 and T/p 17750/sustain close above 17750 test 18500 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 16840-850 S/L 16800 and T/p 16950/17075 (any time close below 16350/15775 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN DOWN TREND RESISTANCE. Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. for the day buy only abv 2775 S/L 2735 and T/p 2800/2860, if manage to close abv 2775 avoid short sell OR buy ard 2570-72 S/L 2560 and T/p 2620-2650 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/ 3040/3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2500 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 188.5 S/L 187 and T/p 190/191.5/sustain abv towards 197-198 OR sell below 180 S/L 181.75 and T/p 178-176.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 172.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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