safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "buy only abv 11925 S/L 11890 and T/p 11980-12000/towards 12100" ACHIEVED WITHIN 1-HOURS. Now, as long Resistance of 12150 & 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11850 S/L 11885 and T/p 11810-800/11720-730/sustain below towards 11630 OR sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070 (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as Long Resist 16575 & 16825 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL FROM HIGH=16826. Continue to view as long Resist of 16830 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16200 S/L 16280 and T/p 16100-16000/ close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16660-670 S/L 16700 and T/p 16575-500 (any time close below 16000-15975 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/ 20550/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


Continue to view, as long Resistance 2970 & 3040, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 & more below 2730 S/L 2765 and T/p 2700-2680 OR sell ard 2860-65 S/L 2870 and T/p 2840-2815 (now crude need to close above 2970/3040/3200/ 3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2735 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

Continue to view, as long Resistance of 187/191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50, for the day sell only below 178 S/L 180 and T/p 176-75/sustain close below 178 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.3-186.6 S/L 187 and T/p 184-84 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 178 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

market outlook

Recession now a reality in major economies from Japan to Germany, policymakers is starting to fret about the chance of a phenomenon many see as even more deadly: deflation. Deflation is probably the worst case for the financial sector because it is very difficult to overcome. The prospect of constantly falling prices is particularly unwelcome at present given the blow it deals to efforts by banks, firms and households to cut debt and help weather the economic storm now following the financial market crisis. Central banks, faced with a sudden collapse in growth as well as inflation, have already slashed interest rates and are expected to keep doing so,although economists warn they may run out of rope before prices hit rock-bottom.

Gold rose above $760, as a weaker dollar and a bullish industry report showing strong demand triggered a technical chart breakout. Prices were supported by a lower dollar against the Euro following a government report showing record drop in U.S. consumer prices in October. World Gold Council report confirmed strong demand for physical gold bullion, triggering a technical breakout. Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-overyear to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.

Copper tumbled more than 2 percent before steadying at slightly lower levels as a weaker dollar helped offset lingering concerns about demand and a slowing global growth outlook. Dim demand prospects and fears the world is in for an extended recession have contributed to the downtrend in the base metals. U.S. consumer prices plummeted and construction starts fell to record lows, reflective of the weakened state of metal demand. Further fears of demand deterioration from the U.S. automotive industry as the economic crisis threatens the survival of Detroit's Big Three General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. Global copper market in a small surplus of 26,800 tonnes in January to September period - the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported.

Crude oil fell below $54 to its lowest since January 2007 after an unexpectedly large build in U.S. crude inventories underlined falling demand. Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, weekly U.S. government data showed, twice analysts' expectations. With no end in sight for the global economic turmoil, traders continue to focus on the lack of demand heading into 2009. Inventories of distillates fell 1.5 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise. The distillates number is the fly in the ointment keeping prices from falling too much on an unexpected build in crude. Oil market was also closely watching any moves from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their meeting next week. OPEC is very concerned about the worsening world economic slowdown, the group's president Chakib Khelil said.'


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s the US dollar story for gold and silver and nothing else. Euro/Usd rose to 1.2813 while comex gold December rose to $764.80 and thereafter the euro fell and gold, silver and crude oil also fell. Still gold and silver have performed exceedingly well. Gold, silver and other commodities have been falling only after (A) US dollar gains or (B) Stock markets fall. When conditions A &B occur simultaneously then they fall else they are volatile. This will continue today also.

Minutes of Fed meeting

Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed. ``Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released. In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery. Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of ``price stability.''

Our View: Interest rate cuts by the Fed will reach a bottom in December 2008 or January 2008. Thereafter it remains to be seen what other hard measures Federal reserves takes to spruce the US economy. In the short term the US dollar may gain as other regions across the globe cut interest rates and interest rate differentials narrow. Once the interest rates cuts are over by most of the countries the US dollar will weaken at a modest pace. This may happen for the remaining part of 2008 but will surely happen after the first quarter of 2009.

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER

Copper needs to hold $157 to prevent another round of selling to $149 and $135. On the higher side $172 is the resistance. Overall downward pressure is there on copper.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)

Crude oil needs to hold $49.80 to prevent a fall to $46.00. On the higher side $53.80 and $56.20 are the resistances.


MCXARUN
9994500540

base metals outlook

The base metals pack staged a mini-recovery on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar and a bout of short-covering yesterday. However, this rise in prices could be temporary as the dollar weakened and hence buying emerged. The trend in the dollar is still upwards but could change in the coming months and provide some respite to prices. Base metal prices showed strength despite of bearish inventories for five out of six base metals.

Copper and Aluminum prices changed little as these metals plunged to multi-year lows in the morning. Inventories for copper gained 2,525 tonnes and this has been the seventeenth consecutive gain in inventories for the metal. Aluminum inventories jumped a whopping 44,425 tonnes. Gaining inventories amid a global economic recession is adding to concerns over declining demand. Zinc prices jumped 5% yesterday despite of an increase in LME inventories. Nickel prices gained sharply as output cutbacks have helped provide support. BHP Billiton said that it had scrapped a study on developing an integrated nickel project in Indonesia.

On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar weakened and provided a respite to further decline in prices. US jobless claims jumped to a seven-year high of 516,000 as weakening demand led companies to fire more workers. This factor led to weakness in the dollar. Japan announced that it would offer up to $100bn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to support emerging economies.

OUTLOOK

Base metal prices received some respite yesterday on the back of a weakness in the US Dollar. We feel that this recovery on the back of a weakness in the dollar is short-lived as the trend in base metals remains down. The change in trend could be seen only in the coming months as prices could react to physical buying in China, which is expected to pick up. Currently prices remain under pressure of the global economic slowdown as the macroeconomic picture is bleak. Financial markets across the globe are facing pressure and this is leading to volatility.

Rising inventories in the case of Copper and Aluminum are expected to put pressure on the downside. Since demand from China is expected to pick p in the next year, there is no current reason for gain. Hence, any gains in these metals could be followed by technical selling in the short-term.

On the macroeconomic front, the US is expected to announce data on retail sales, Michigan sentiment and business inventories today. This data could affect the dollar movement as a weakness in the data could weaken the dollar and provide some relief to the base metals market.

Copper

Immediate support is seen at Rs.183.30 levels for MCX November contract. Further below, support is seen at 180.60 levels. Copper is expected to trade sideways down.

Whereas resistance is seen at Rs.191.40 levels & further upwards at Rs. 194.90.

Zinc

Immediate support is seen at Rs.57.20 levels for MCX November contract whereas crucial support is seen at Rs.55.80 levels. Zinc is expected to trade sideways for the day.
Short-term resistance is seen at Rs 60.80 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs 62.10.

Zinc prices are currently trading around 93 levels. Immediate support is seen at Rs 92.30 levels for MCX Feb contract whereas crucial support is seen 90.60 levels. Short-term resistance is seen at Rs95.40 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs97.


MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx gold outlook

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, advanced to a 30-month high (88.15) yesterday.
The German economy, Europe's largest, slid into its worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed exports and spending, government data showed yesterday.

U.S. stocks climbed, with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 552.59, or 6.7 percent, to 8,835.25, after tumbling as much as 317.24 points earlier during yesterday’s trading session.

MARKET RECAP

The bullion pack witnessed an extremely volatile trading session yesterday with Spot Gold briefly breaching the $700 mark to recover sharply after market hours on the back of recovery in the Euro. Hedge funds liquidation has also hit the bullion pack hard as rush for cash led to sell-off across all asset classes. Crude futures breached the $55 mark, pulling prices to 22-month lows over declining energy demand concerns, also putting pressure on gold prices.

In currency market, the Euro rose sharply during yesterday’s trading session to close above its 10-Day Moving Average. The overall trend still remains sideways-down. For the day, Euro shall meet with resistance at 1.2928/1.3138 whereas support is seen at 1.2672/1.2492. The short-term top (87.88) for the Dollar Index was breached during yesterday’s trading session but later in the trading session, the DI fell sharply to close lower at 86.50.

Silver prices also fell during yesterday’s trading session briefly breaching the $9 mark but managed to recover all its losses to close in positive territory, following gold prices.

OUTLOOK

Spot gold prices have continued to trade in the range of $680 - $780 levels for the past 17 trading sessions. The presence of mixed trends in the bullion pack is indicative of indecisiveness in the markets. The Bullion prices are primarily being affected by currency movements and to some extent by crude prices. The Dollar Index still maintains its uptrend though it appears to be losing steam. Unless we see a reversal in trend in the $, bullion prices will continue to remain under pressure. Also, bullion pack is being impacted by the global economic weakness which isn’t appearing to help the bullion pack much. There's still is a push to hold cash amongst the investors community.

On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $720/$700 whereas resistance is seen at $740/$755. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $8.95/$8.50 whereas resistance is seen at $9.60/$10.00.

MCX December Gold has support at 11550/11380 whereas resistance is seen at 11770/11880 levels whereas MCX December Silver shall find support at 16000/15970 whereas resistance is seen at 16520/16725 levels.


MCXARUN
9994500540

nymex crude outlook

U.S. crude futures settled up yesterday tracking a slight bounce on Wall Street and steady crude supply.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.

The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.

At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)

Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.

DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20


MCXARUN
9994500540

comex Gold Outlook

US Gold futures fell yesterday despite weak dollar and strong crude prices, and ended nearly 2 percent lower due to the liquidation pressure as the tight credit market. Deteriorating global economy and weaker equities, investors cut riskier assets also weighed on gold prices.

Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.

China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.

International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.

Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50

MCXARUN
9994500540