The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, advanced to a 30-month high (88.15) yesterday.
The German economy, Europe's largest, slid into its worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter as the global financial crisis curbed exports and spending, government data showed yesterday.
U.S. stocks climbed, with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 552.59, or 6.7 percent, to 8,835.25, after tumbling as much as 317.24 points earlier during yesterday’s trading session.
MARKET RECAP
The bullion pack witnessed an extremely volatile trading session yesterday with Spot Gold briefly breaching the $700 mark to recover sharply after market hours on the back of recovery in the Euro. Hedge funds liquidation has also hit the bullion pack hard as rush for cash led to sell-off across all asset classes. Crude futures breached the $55 mark, pulling prices to 22-month lows over declining energy demand concerns, also putting pressure on gold prices.
In currency market, the Euro rose sharply during yesterday’s trading session to close above its 10-Day Moving Average. The overall trend still remains sideways-down. For the day, Euro shall meet with resistance at 1.2928/1.3138 whereas support is seen at 1.2672/1.2492. The short-term top (87.88) for the Dollar Index was breached during yesterday’s trading session but later in the trading session, the DI fell sharply to close lower at 86.50.
Silver prices also fell during yesterday’s trading session briefly breaching the $9 mark but managed to recover all its losses to close in positive territory, following gold prices.
OUTLOOK
Spot gold prices have continued to trade in the range of $680 - $780 levels for the past 17 trading sessions. The presence of mixed trends in the bullion pack is indicative of indecisiveness in the markets. The Bullion prices are primarily being affected by currency movements and to some extent by crude prices. The Dollar Index still maintains its uptrend though it appears to be losing steam. Unless we see a reversal in trend in the $, bullion prices will continue to remain under pressure. Also, bullion pack is being impacted by the global economic weakness which isn’t appearing to help the bullion pack much. There's still is a push to hold cash amongst the investors community.
On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $720/$700 whereas resistance is seen at $740/$755. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $8.95/$8.50 whereas resistance is seen at $9.60/$10.00.
MCX December Gold has support at 11550/11380 whereas resistance is seen at 11770/11880 levels whereas MCX December Silver shall find support at 16000/15970 whereas resistance is seen at 16520/16725 levels.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, November 14, 2008
nymex crude outlook
U.S. crude futures settled up yesterday tracking a slight bounce on Wall Street and steady crude supply.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.
The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.
At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil supplies were unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels. At the same time Supplies of gasoline were up 2.0 million barrels in spite of lower imports.
The report also says refinery use was down from 85.3% to 84.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 1.9% from a year ago and distillate demand was down 4.6% from a year ago.
At the same time The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of 2009 world oil demand by 670,000 barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day. That is still more than the U.S. Energy Department's forecast for 85.9 million barrels per day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $59.66 - $54.67, before settling at $59 .39a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $54.93 - $58.75 and closed at $54.93
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $57.80; bearish below $57.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex Gold Outlook
US Gold futures fell yesterday despite weak dollar and strong crude prices, and ended nearly 2 percent lower due to the liquidation pressure as the tight credit market. Deteriorating global economy and weaker equities, investors cut riskier assets also weighed on gold prices.
Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.
China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Dollar fell against the euro on yesterday after weekly data showed a sharp jump in initial U.S. jobless claims. According to the report, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. At the same time The U.S. federal government posted a record high $237 billion budget deficit in the month of October.
China's stimulus packages also failed change the view of the economy. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
International spot gold traded in the range $736.75 - $700.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $734.30
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
Expected to trade within the range $761.80 to $727, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $745 $762, $778, Supports seen at $717, $707 and$ 683.
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $725.1– $699and closed at $719
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $ 719.50 bearish below $ 715.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11750/11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11610 and T/p 11490-500/ 11450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11815-820 S/L 11830 and T/p 11750 -710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/ 14325 bullish while close below 11450/ 11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST 20-DAYS OUR DAILY VIEW WAS "as long Resist 17750 down trend continue" AND PRICE ATTEMPT ALMOST 5-6 TIMES ABV 17300 AND FALL TO 16000 YESTERDAY. Continue to view as long Resist of 16575 & 16825 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800/16550/16500-475, for the day sell only below 16000 S/L 16100 and T/p 15900-800/close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16540-560 S/L 16575 and T/p 16430-16350 (any time close below 15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2870 & 2950, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 S/L 2770 and T/p 2725-2710 OR sell ard 2912-18 S/L 2925 and T/p 2870-2840 (now crude need to close above 3150/3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 2750 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=186 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 185.95. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 182.25 and T/p 179.50/177/sustain close below 179.5 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 190.2-190.5 S/L 191 and T/p 188-187 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 179.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Continue to view, as long Resistance 11750/11825 & 11900, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 11550 S/L 11610 and T/p 11490-500/ 11450/sustain below towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11815-820 S/L 11830 and T/p 11750 -710 (any time close above 11900/12375/12850/13600/ 14325 bullish while close below 11450/ 11290-250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
SINCE LAST 20-DAYS OUR DAILY VIEW WAS "as long Resist 17750 down trend continue" AND PRICE ATTEMPT ALMOST 5-6 TIMES ABV 17300 AND FALL TO 16000 YESTERDAY. Continue to view as long Resist of 16575 & 16825 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16850-800/16550/16500-475, for the day sell only below 16000 S/L 16100 and T/p 15900-800/close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16540-560 S/L 16575 and T/p 16430-16350 (any time close below 15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Continue to view, as long Resistance 2870 & 2950, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 S/L 2770 and T/p 2725-2710 OR sell ard 2912-18 S/L 2925 and T/p 2870-2840 (now crude need to close above 3150/3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/ 5290 for bullish rally while close below 2750 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=186 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 185.95. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 180.5 S/L 182.25 and T/p 179.50/177/sustain close below 179.5 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 190.2-190.5 S/L 191 and T/p 188-187 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 179.5 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view caals
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 179.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 52, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 179.50, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 52, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Crude Outlook – 12th Nov, 2008
U.S. crude futures settled on Tuesday below $60 a barrel for the first time since March 2007 as demand concerns due to the ailing world economy .Crude futures fell sharply even after a fresh indication from OPEC of another output cut.
China's stimulus packages also failed to hold energy prices at higher levels. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
In the last week, Crude oil fell to a 22 month low of $59.97 and ended at $61.33 a barrel as concerns about a slowing global economy curbing already slowed oil demand. The falling in oil also supported by the surprise report of a build in U.S. gasoline inventories, which indicated that demand remains weak and crude inventories were flat after five consecutive reports of builds at 0.50 mln barrels. U.S. total oil product demand in the past four weeks fell to 19.10 million barrels per day, down 6.7 percent from a year ago, the EIA reported.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $58.60 - $62.1, before settling at $59 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $61.10 - $58.70 and closed at $59.33
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $59.78; bearish below $59.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
China's stimulus packages also failed to hold energy prices at higher levels. China launched an economic stimulus package on Sunday worth nearly $600 billion for supporting ailing economy. This plan is for 2 years and Funds from the stimulus package will be spent in ten major areas that include low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation and improvements in the environment. And also expected it will improve the current global economic condition by improving the domestic demand.
In the last week, Crude oil fell to a 22 month low of $59.97 and ended at $61.33 a barrel as concerns about a slowing global economy curbing already slowed oil demand. The falling in oil also supported by the surprise report of a build in U.S. gasoline inventories, which indicated that demand remains weak and crude inventories were flat after five consecutive reports of builds at 0.50 mln barrels. U.S. total oil product demand in the past four weeks fell to 19.10 million barrels per day, down 6.7 percent from a year ago, the EIA reported.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $58.60 - $62.1, before settling at $59 a barrel yesterday.
Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI NOVE.)
Expected to trade within the range of $ 63.10 to $59, breaking of either a side makes the direction, Resistances are $65.60 $69, $71.30, Supports seen at $57.20, $53.60 and$ 49.80.
DWTI (November) traded in the range $61.10 - $58.70 and closed at $59.33
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (November) - Bullish above $59.78; bearish below $59.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
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