OUTLOOK

Bullion
Bullion prices traded on the higher side in yesterday’s sessions as the dollar was seen
letting off it gains against the euro ahead of the presidential election in the nation.
Speculation that the democratic candidate Senator Obama who leads the national
polls, will win against the Republican, helped send the dollar lower and lift the
commodity and equity markets. Given varied views and plans of the divergent party
heads, the impact of the likely presidential candidate, is different on the markets.
With democrats, there is an assumption of potentially more inflation given their
spending plans. Obama has called for a second economic stimulus package valued at
$175 billion to help revive U.S. growth. This idea of higher inflation is likely to
increase the appeal of the commodities as an inflation hedge hence resulting in a
relief rally in prices.
For the day, the expected decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index is likely to
weigh down the US dollar and prove positive for bullion. However the ECB interest
rates due be released tomorrow and expectation of 50 basis cut by ECB may cap the
gains for the metal.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices were seen to take a pullback in yesterday’s trading session as the
weaker US dollar prompts this rally in the market. Prices made a high of $71.77 per
barrel as the dollar seemed to lose it gains on the Election Day. Given the additional
stimulus of $175 billion dollars proposed by the democrat Obama and increasing bets
of him coming into power, worked positive for all the commodities. Hence oil prices
were boosted by the biggest presidential-election day rally in the U.S. stock markets
in 24 years and the fading dollar. In addition, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates,
OPEC’s first and fourth-largest oil producer, implementing the supply cuts agreed on
by the group is also proving to be positive for prices.
On the electronic session today prices are presently trading below $70 per barrel as
the relief rally yesterday leads to profit booking. According to the DOE the crude and
distillate stocks are likely to post an increase compared to decline expected in
gasoline stockpiles. As per the expectation the data is likely to have a mixed impact
on prices; however the actual numbers need to be looked in for further direction. For
the day prices are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of the inventory data.

MCXARUN
9994500540

Global Recap – 4th Oct, 2008

Crude oil jumped nearly 8% on signs Saudi Arabia had made substantial cuts in its crude supply and as global markets rallied. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has reduced exports by around 900,000 barrels per day from a peak in August, one source estimated. The petroleum markets have rebounded from lower overnight levels on a trio of supportive factors: a weaker U.S. dollar, a push to the upside in global equity markets and market talk that Saudi Arabia may have already cut crude oil production. Moreover Saudi Arabia's supply cut helps to remove doubts about whether the world's top exporter would comply quickly with a 1.5 million barrel per day output cut agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna last month. The United Arab Emirates has reduced its production to around 2.3 million barrels per day from around 2.5 million bpd, a top state oil company official said.

Gold and silver surged sharply on a combination of a weaker dollar, the rise in oil and a calmer atmosphere in the global markets amid strength across the commodity sector. Gold is supported by weaker dollar as investors awaited results of U.S. Presidential election. Gold, silver rallied as credit markets thawed and as the Federal Reserve injected more liquidity. Active buying during the Europe sessions and lower Libor rates helped boost gold buying. A combination of a string of central bank rate cuts and a win by Senator Barack Obama may buoy the dollar and pressure gold.

Factory orders dropped for the second straight month in September as businesses cut back on purchases of steel, computers and other equipment amid the economic downturn, according to the government report. The Commerce Department said factory orders tumbled by 2.5% from August, much worse than the 0.7% drop analysts expected. That's on top of a revised 4.3% decline in August.

Industrial metals climbed higher with copper rallying more than 5% as rising equity markets and a weak dollar boosted prices. Copper is lacking direction and is looking to external factors. European shares surged 2% by mid-session while the dollar slipped against the Euro and yen, boosting commodity prices across the board, including oil and gold. About 2 million tonnes of China's 4.6 million tonnes of refined copper capacity are reducing production rates and cuts may continue through the first quarter of next year, according to the smelter officials. The long-term outlook on copper is very bearish as many Chinese fabricators are cutting production on slumping demand. Poor demand for copper is reflected by the continuous jumps in inventories. Stocks of the metal in LME registered warehouses jumped another couple of thousand tonnes, bringing the total to 241,650 tonnes -- it’s highest since March 2004.

Courtesy: Religare Commodities


MCXARUN
9994500540

important chart

click the pic for large view





MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Continue to view, as long Resistance 11780/11900 & 12150, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 12050/11700/11585. for the day sell only below 11540 S/L 11565 and T/p 11480-475/sustain below 11540 seen towards 11300 in coming days OR sell ard 11780-790 S/L 11800 and T/p 11725/11670 (any time close above 12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11540/11290-250 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Continue to view as long Resist of 17375/17550 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16600 S/L 16710 and T/p 16510/16400/ 16315-265/16100/sustain close below towards 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 17050-17075 S/L 17100 and T/p 16950-850 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

Continue to view, as long Resist 3420 & 3450, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3320, for the day sell below 3150 S/L 3175 and T/p 3110-3100/sustain close below 3150 test 3025-40 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 3288-95 S/L 3300 and T/p 3250-30(now crude need to close above 3450/3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 3150 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


Continue to view, as long Resistance of 212 & 215, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 223.5/205.5/205, for the day sell below 201 S/L 202.5 and T/p 199.5/197.5-196/ sustain below towards 188.5 and close below 188.5 test 167-170 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 209.2-209.5 S/L 210 and T/p 207.5/205.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 215/ 234.5/248/270/305/316/327/339/ 351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 195.5/188.5 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

US FED Interest Rate decision schedule today at 11.45 PM. Continue to view, as long support of 11900 & 11725, some bounce back expected towards 12300-12400 in coming days. for the day buy only abv 12100 S/L 12050 and T/p 12150-160/ towards 12250 OR buy ard 11735-40 S/L 11725 and T/p 11790-840 (any time close above 12100/12325/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11575/11290-250 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

Continue to view as long Resist 17150 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 17500/17075/ 16950/16500, for the day sell only below 16125-100 S/L 16230 and T/p 16000/ 15850 OR sell ard 16620-30 S/L 16650 and T/p 16500-425 (any time close below 16100-15975 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

Continue to view, as long Resist 3340 & 3475, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3450/3250, for the day sell below 3230/3200 & more below 3175 S/L 3250 and T/p 3140/3100 OR sell ard 3370-75 S/L 3380 and T/p 3340-20 (now crude need to close above 3765/4120/4400/4800/5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 3175 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 215 S/L 213.5 and T/p 216/218.5/towards 222 OR sell below 209 S/L 210.5 and T/p 207/205 Max upto 201 where good support seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 214/225/248/270/305/316/327/ 339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 188.5 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 168 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 188.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 248.5/270 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 52/UPTO 49 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 55,(NOV)

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 54-50 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 58 (NOV)

ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 91-190 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 95.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 112 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)

NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 430 / TOWARDS 400 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 465, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 672 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

SINCE IT BREAKS 12850 WE DAILY RECOMMEND DOWN TREND & SEE PRICE NOW. THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON DAYBEFORE YESTERDAY "sustain below 12400 test 12050 atleast" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW=11758. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 12225 & 12350, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 12570/12300, for the day sell below 11750 S/L 11790 and T/p 11700/650 OR sell ard 12200-210 S/L 12225 and T/p 12100-12050(any time close above 12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11750/11250 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Continue to view as long Resist 17375 & 17750 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 17500, fresh sell below 17075 S/L 17175 and T/p 17000/16850/sustain close below test 16450-400 atleast/towards 16000 in coming days OR sell ard 17570-580 S/L 17600 and T/p 17500-430 (any time close below 16850 bearish rally while close above 17750/19000/20550/21400/ 22150/ 25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Continue to view, as long Resist 3525 & 3575, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 3535, for the day sell only below 3370 S/L 3400 and T/p 3340/towards 3280-3300 in coming days OR sell ard 3500-3510 S/L 3520 and T/p 3475-50 (now crude need to close above 3765/4120/4400/4800/ 5000/5290 for bullish rally while close below 3370 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540