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MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, October 10, 2008
Oil slides as Opec calls emergency meeting
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: October 9 2008 17:23 | Last updated: October 9 2008 21:53
Oil prices plunged below $85 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level in a year, as Opec, the oil exporting countries’ cartel, called an emergency meeting to discuss reducing its crude production to halt the collapse in prices.
The announcement came as crude oil futures in New York fell almost $5 to an intraday low of $84.19 a barrel, the lowest level since October 2007.
In late afternoon trading in New York, oil was down $4.14 to $84.81 a barrel.
The drop suggested that the market was firmly focused on the impact of the financial crisis on global economic growth and energy demand next year, rather than in the cartel’s action.
The cartel, which controls 40 per cent of the world’s oil output, said in an unusually frank statement that it was concerned about the “deteriorating economic conditions with contagion risks” and will meet in four weeks to tackle the problem.
Gold, seen as a safe haven in turbulent times, recovered earlier losses to trade at $913 an ounce, up $8 on the day.
Harry Tchilinguirian, an oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said the correction in oil prices had come to closely track movements in equity indices and, until such time that credit conditions normalise and confidence returns, “this is likely to continue”.
He cut his price forecast for the first quarter to $81.30 a barrel, adding that prices would average in 2009 about $95 a barrel, well below the $115 a barrel he predicted just a month ago. Oil prices have fallen almost 43 per cent from July’s all-time high of $147.27 a barrel.
The US Department of Energy reported this week that the country’s oil demand averaged 18.66m barrels a day last week, down 8.6 per cent against the same period a year ago as the economic downturn takes its toll on oil consumption. High prices during the summer have forced US motorists to cut their mileage.
Olivier Jakob, of Switzerland-based consultancy Petromatrix, said: “Be it in November or in December, be it formally or informally, Opec will need to reduce production not because the price is currently too low but because there is not enough demand.”
Opec said it would meet on November 18 in Vienna, a month before it was originally due to have its next gathering.
The fall in oil prices was not mirrored in other commodity markets. Agricultural commodities and base metals rose.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Published: October 9 2008 17:23 | Last updated: October 9 2008 21:53
Oil prices plunged below $85 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level in a year, as Opec, the oil exporting countries’ cartel, called an emergency meeting to discuss reducing its crude production to halt the collapse in prices.
The announcement came as crude oil futures in New York fell almost $5 to an intraday low of $84.19 a barrel, the lowest level since October 2007.
In late afternoon trading in New York, oil was down $4.14 to $84.81 a barrel.
The drop suggested that the market was firmly focused on the impact of the financial crisis on global economic growth and energy demand next year, rather than in the cartel’s action.
The cartel, which controls 40 per cent of the world’s oil output, said in an unusually frank statement that it was concerned about the “deteriorating economic conditions with contagion risks” and will meet in four weeks to tackle the problem.
Gold, seen as a safe haven in turbulent times, recovered earlier losses to trade at $913 an ounce, up $8 on the day.
Harry Tchilinguirian, an oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said the correction in oil prices had come to closely track movements in equity indices and, until such time that credit conditions normalise and confidence returns, “this is likely to continue”.
He cut his price forecast for the first quarter to $81.30 a barrel, adding that prices would average in 2009 about $95 a barrel, well below the $115 a barrel he predicted just a month ago. Oil prices have fallen almost 43 per cent from July’s all-time high of $147.27 a barrel.
The US Department of Energy reported this week that the country’s oil demand averaged 18.66m barrels a day last week, down 8.6 per cent against the same period a year ago as the economic downturn takes its toll on oil consumption. High prices during the summer have forced US motorists to cut their mileage.
Olivier Jakob, of Switzerland-based consultancy Petromatrix, said: “Be it in November or in December, be it formally or informally, Opec will need to reduce production not because the price is currently too low but because there is not enough demand.”
Opec said it would meet on November 18 in Vienna, a month before it was originally due to have its next gathering.
The fall in oil prices was not mirrored in other commodity markets. Agricultural commodities and base metals rose.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The investor is no idiot. Even if central banks hide or manipulate all the statistical information he will not get swayed or carried away by the same. This is the message given by the investors to the central banks after the fall in global stock markets despite coordinated interest rate cuts by all the central banks.
The Dow Jones closed below 9000 on signs that carmakers will be the next victims of the credit crisis. Coordinated interest-rate reductions by major central banks on October 8 failed to revive lending among banks. The 3 month London interbank offered rate (Libor), rose to 4.75% yesterday, the highest level since December 28. It's an absolute panic in stocks. Bad assets need to be taken off balance sheets, new capital needs to be added and then we might, maybe, get a respite.
Yamato Life Insurance Co., a Japanese insurer, filed for court protection from creditors in the nation's first bankruptcy in the industry in seven years, with debt exceeding assets by 11.5 billion yen ($116 million). US credit woes now are spreading to Japan. I hope the spread will be limited to developed nations. If US credit woes spread across emerging markets then there will be a total break down in the global financial system.
If interest rates and other measures taken by various central banks fail then currency devaluation could be the next step. Currency devaluation will happen if and only if the measures fail. This is just one of the measures which I am not ignoring and will not happen in 2009. If central bank measures fail by 2009 then there is a realistic chance of currency devaluation in 2010.
Markets will be looking forward to the G7 meeting over the weekend for comments and further actions.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
$200 should provide some support. Highly oversold conditions exist. A close below $244 today and next Friday will result in $170 and $140. Resistance starts at $244 and $280.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The Dow Jones closed below 9000 on signs that carmakers will be the next victims of the credit crisis. Coordinated interest-rate reductions by major central banks on October 8 failed to revive lending among banks. The 3 month London interbank offered rate (Libor), rose to 4.75% yesterday, the highest level since December 28. It's an absolute panic in stocks. Bad assets need to be taken off balance sheets, new capital needs to be added and then we might, maybe, get a respite.
Yamato Life Insurance Co., a Japanese insurer, filed for court protection from creditors in the nation's first bankruptcy in the industry in seven years, with debt exceeding assets by 11.5 billion yen ($116 million). US credit woes now are spreading to Japan. I hope the spread will be limited to developed nations. If US credit woes spread across emerging markets then there will be a total break down in the global financial system.
If interest rates and other measures taken by various central banks fail then currency devaluation could be the next step. Currency devaluation will happen if and only if the measures fail. This is just one of the measures which I am not ignoring and will not happen in 2009. If central bank measures fail by 2009 then there is a realistic chance of currency devaluation in 2010.
Markets will be looking forward to the G7 meeting over the weekend for comments and further actions.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
$200 should provide some support. Highly oversold conditions exist. A close below $244 today and next Friday will result in $170 and $140. Resistance starts at $244 and $280.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
we book profit on buy abv 13450, for the day buy only abv 13600 S/L 13570 and T/p 13640-50/13690-700/sustain abv towards 13775 OR sell below 13325 S/L 13370 and T/p 13285-230/13190-150/ below down rally (any time close above 13700/13800-860 bullish while close below 12700-625/12425/11775/11250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on buy abv 19400, for the day buy abv 19450 S/L 19375 and T/p 19525-600/sustain abv towards 19850 OR sell below 19100 S/L 19160 and T/p 19000-18975/towards 18800 (any time close below 18550/ 17650 bearish rally while close above 20500/21400/22150/ 25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release today. PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=4440 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4440. book profit on sell below 4440/4350-25/4255, fresh sell below 4220 S/L 4250 and T/p 4200-4150/sustain close below 4225 seen towards 4000 in coming days OR sell ard 4380-85 S/L 4390 and T/p 4350-4320 (now crude need to close above 4440/4800/4960-5030/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4220/ 3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TWICE TESTED OUR RESISTANCE BUT FAIL TO BREAK. book profit on sell below 313.5/ 303/ 299.5/288.5/272, for the day sell below 269 S/L 270.5 and T/p 267.5/265.5-265/ sustain below test 260 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 276.2-276.5 S/L 277 and T/p 274-272/270 (upside strong rally only on close above 305/ 316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
for intraday and short time calls please contact
09994500540
MCXARUN
we book profit on buy abv 13450, for the day buy only abv 13600 S/L 13570 and T/p 13640-50/13690-700/sustain abv towards 13775 OR sell below 13325 S/L 13370 and T/p 13285-230/13190-150/ below down rally (any time close above 13700/13800-860 bullish while close below 12700-625/12425/11775/11250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on buy abv 19400, for the day buy abv 19450 S/L 19375 and T/p 19525-600/sustain abv towards 19850 OR sell below 19100 S/L 19160 and T/p 19000-18975/towards 18800 (any time close below 18550/ 17650 bearish rally while close above 20500/21400/22150/ 25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release today. PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=4440 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4440. book profit on sell below 4440/4350-25/4255, fresh sell below 4220 S/L 4250 and T/p 4200-4150/sustain close below 4225 seen towards 4000 in coming days OR sell ard 4380-85 S/L 4390 and T/p 4350-4320 (now crude need to close above 4440/4800/4960-5030/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4220/ 3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TWICE TESTED OUR RESISTANCE BUT FAIL TO BREAK. book profit on sell below 313.5/ 303/ 299.5/288.5/272, for the day sell below 269 S/L 270.5 and T/p 267.5/265.5-265/ sustain below test 260 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 276.2-276.5 S/L 277 and T/p 274-272/270 (upside strong rally only on close above 305/ 316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
for intraday and short time calls please contact
09994500540
MCXARUN
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day buy only abv 13450 S/L 13420 and T/p 13500/towards 13600 OR sell below 13150 S/L 13190 and T/p 13110-13090/sustain below towards 12950 in coming days (any time close above 13450/13800-860 bullish while close below 12700-625/12425/11775/ 11250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 20875/ 20650/20000/18700, for the day sell below 18800 S/L 18870 and T/p 18725/ 18600-550/sustain below towards 18000 in coming days OR buy only abv 19400 S/L 19300 and T/p 19500/600/towards 19800 (any time close below 18550/ 17650 bearish rally while close above 20500/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell below 4350 & 4325, fresh sell below 4255 & more below 4240 S/L 4280 and T/p 4200/sustain close below 4240 seen towards 4000 in coming days OR sell ard 4430-35 S/L 4440 and T/p 4400-4385/4350 (now crude need to close above 4800/4960-5030/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4240/3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 272 test 266 atleast" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW WAS 265.75. book profit on sell below 313.5/ 303/299.5/288.5/272, for the day sell only below 265.5 & 265 S/L 266.8 and T/p 263-262/upto 260 OR sell ard 275.8-276 S/L 276.5 and T/p 274-272/270(upside strong rally only on close above 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
for intraday and short time calls, please contact
9994500540
MCXARUN
for the day buy only abv 13450 S/L 13420 and T/p 13500/towards 13600 OR sell below 13150 S/L 13190 and T/p 13110-13090/sustain below towards 12950 in coming days (any time close above 13450/13800-860 bullish while close below 12700-625/12425/11775/ 11250 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 20875/ 20650/20000/18700, for the day sell below 18800 S/L 18870 and T/p 18725/ 18600-550/sustain below towards 18000 in coming days OR buy only abv 19400 S/L 19300 and T/p 19500/600/towards 19800 (any time close below 18550/ 17650 bearish rally while close above 20500/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell below 4350 & 4325, fresh sell below 4255 & more below 4240 S/L 4280 and T/p 4200/sustain close below 4240 seen towards 4000 in coming days OR sell ard 4430-35 S/L 4440 and T/p 4400-4385/4350 (now crude need to close above 4800/4960-5030/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4240/3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 272 test 266 atleast" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW WAS 265.75. book profit on sell below 313.5/ 303/299.5/288.5/272, for the day sell only below 265.5 & 265 S/L 266.8 and T/p 263-262/upto 260 OR sell ard 275.8-276 S/L 276.5 and T/p 274-272/270(upside strong rally only on close above 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
for intraday and short time calls, please contact
9994500540
MCXARUN
Monday, October 6, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US bail out package has been passed. US September non farm payrolls have once again come in negative. Europe and rest of the world is copying the US and are bailing out defunct financial companies. Traders and investors will be thinking what next? The following factors (in short) will be the key to the markets for the rest of the third quarter:
1) US election scenario and the next president till mid November.
2) Interest rate cut: Bank of England may cut interest rates this week. Markets have fully factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its 29th October meeting. European central bank may also cut interest rates in November or December, 2008 by a quarter of a percentage. Interest rate cuts have always been bullish for gold and precious metals.
3) US dollar: US dollar has been gaining on the back of woes in Europe and UK and their inability to take unified action and quick action. Precious metals will soon be delinked from currency markets and the US dollar.
4) The number of new bankrupt companies coming to the surface: It will be all about mathematics. Markets will be calculating the amount spent on the buying out/financing bankrupt companies and whether the $700 billion is too little or too much. It will be hard to make any judgment on this. Volatility in all financial markets will rise.
5) Growth in other regions across the globe. The decoupling theory has been dumped. Decoupling between emerging markets growth and US economic growth. But emerging markets will recover faster than US. It will be all about the pace of recovery for emerging markets. If emerging markets also moves towards recession (too early to comment on this) then the pace of rise on precious will rise and 2007 October to March can be repeated in 2008 also.
6) Balance sheet of countries: Once all the financial defunct companies are brought up by all the central banks what will their balance sheets look like. At the moment countries are trying to finance each others. There will be a situation when will not be able to finance each other. Printing more currency notes and issuing more treasury bonds will not the solution to the financial mess created now. Gold will indirectly be the reserve currency of the world in the long time.
7) Spread of credit crunch across different parts of the globe: The US credit crunch has spread across the Atlantic in UK and Europe. BNP Paribas will take control of Fortis’s units in Belgium and Luxemburg. Further German government and financial institutions agreed on a 50 billion euro rescue package for Hype real estate holding AG.
The central banks across the globe are making coordinated effort for any sustained recession like environment. Global central banks have had a history to creating assets bubbles. This time around it will be the accumulation of bad loans/defunct company asset bubbles. If central banks do not take hard decisions then global recession will be only way out.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil needs to hold $88 to be in bullish zone and target $98 and $103+ once again. A consolidated fall below $88 will result in $81.60 and $77.
MCXARUN
9994500540
1) US election scenario and the next president till mid November.
2) Interest rate cut: Bank of England may cut interest rates this week. Markets have fully factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its 29th October meeting. European central bank may also cut interest rates in November or December, 2008 by a quarter of a percentage. Interest rate cuts have always been bullish for gold and precious metals.
3) US dollar: US dollar has been gaining on the back of woes in Europe and UK and their inability to take unified action and quick action. Precious metals will soon be delinked from currency markets and the US dollar.
4) The number of new bankrupt companies coming to the surface: It will be all about mathematics. Markets will be calculating the amount spent on the buying out/financing bankrupt companies and whether the $700 billion is too little or too much. It will be hard to make any judgment on this. Volatility in all financial markets will rise.
5) Growth in other regions across the globe. The decoupling theory has been dumped. Decoupling between emerging markets growth and US economic growth. But emerging markets will recover faster than US. It will be all about the pace of recovery for emerging markets. If emerging markets also moves towards recession (too early to comment on this) then the pace of rise on precious will rise and 2007 October to March can be repeated in 2008 also.
6) Balance sheet of countries: Once all the financial defunct companies are brought up by all the central banks what will their balance sheets look like. At the moment countries are trying to finance each others. There will be a situation when will not be able to finance each other. Printing more currency notes and issuing more treasury bonds will not the solution to the financial mess created now. Gold will indirectly be the reserve currency of the world in the long time.
7) Spread of credit crunch across different parts of the globe: The US credit crunch has spread across the Atlantic in UK and Europe. BNP Paribas will take control of Fortis’s units in Belgium and Luxemburg. Further German government and financial institutions agreed on a 50 billion euro rescue package for Hype real estate holding AG.
The central banks across the globe are making coordinated effort for any sustained recession like environment. Global central banks have had a history to creating assets bubbles. This time around it will be the accumulation of bad loans/defunct company asset bubbles. If central banks do not take hard decisions then global recession will be only way out.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil needs to hold $88 to be in bullish zone and target $98 and $103+ once again. A consolidated fall below $88 will result in $81.60 and $77.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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