GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The US bail out package has been passed. US September non farm payrolls have once again come in negative. Europe and rest of the world is copying the US and are bailing out defunct financial companies. Traders and investors will be thinking what next? The following factors (in short) will be the key to the markets for the rest of the third quarter:

1) US election scenario and the next president till mid November.

2) Interest rate cut: Bank of England may cut interest rates this week. Markets have fully factored in a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its 29th October meeting. European central bank may also cut interest rates in November or December, 2008 by a quarter of a percentage. Interest rate cuts have always been bullish for gold and precious metals.

3) US dollar: US dollar has been gaining on the back of woes in Europe and UK and their inability to take unified action and quick action. Precious metals will soon be delinked from currency markets and the US dollar.

4) The number of new bankrupt companies coming to the surface: It will be all about mathematics. Markets will be calculating the amount spent on the buying out/financing bankrupt companies and whether the $700 billion is too little or too much. It will be hard to make any judgment on this. Volatility in all financial markets will rise.

5) Growth in other regions across the globe. The decoupling theory has been dumped. Decoupling between emerging markets growth and US economic growth. But emerging markets will recover faster than US. It will be all about the pace of recovery for emerging markets. If emerging markets also moves towards recession (too early to comment on this) then the pace of rise on precious will rise and 2007 October to March can be repeated in 2008 also.

6) Balance sheet of countries: Once all the financial defunct companies are brought up by all the central banks what will their balance sheets look like. At the moment countries are trying to finance each others. There will be a situation when will not be able to finance each other. Printing more currency notes and issuing more treasury bonds will not the solution to the financial mess created now. Gold will indirectly be the reserve currency of the world in the long time.

7) Spread of credit crunch across different parts of the globe: The US credit crunch has spread across the Atlantic in UK and Europe. BNP Paribas will take control of Fortis’s units in Belgium and Luxemburg. Further German government and financial institutions agreed on a 50 billion euro rescue package for Hype real estate holding AG.

The central banks across the globe are making coordinated effort for any sustained recession like environment. Global central banks have had a history to creating assets bubbles. This time around it will be the accumulation of bad loans/defunct company asset bubbles. If central banks do not take hard decisions then global recession will be only way out.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)

Crude oil needs to hold $88 to be in bullish zone and target $98 and $103+ once again. A consolidated fall below $88 will result in $81.60 and $77.


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Broad Range seen between 13800 & 12900 for medium term, either side break will gives sharp rally. book profit on sell below 13225, for the day sell only below 13100 S/L 13140 and T/p 13025/below towards 12900/sustain close below seen sharp down rally OR sell ard 13585-595 S/L 13600 and T/p 13540-425 (any time close above 13800 -860 bullish while close below 13120/ 12900/12425/11775/11250 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

we book profit on sell below 20875/ 20650/20000, for the day sell below 20250 S/L 20350 and T/p 20050/19910/ 19800/sustain below towards 19550 atleast OR sell ard sell ard 20920-930 S/L 20950 and T/p 20850/750/20650 (any time close below 19800/18950/ 17650 bearish rally while close above 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=4800 AS DAYS HIGH=4799. for the day sell below 4550 S/L 4575 and T/p 4515-4490/towards 4425/sustain close below towards 4275 in coming days OR sell ard 4790-95 S/L 4800 and T/p 4750-4700, only sustain abv 4960 & 5025 uptrend again (now crude need to close above 4960-5030/ 5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4425/4250/3960 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "below 310 seen down rally sharp" & SEE PRICE BREAK 310 AND MAKE LOW OF 288.5 book profit on sell below 313.5/ 303/299.5, for the day sell below 288.5 S/L 290 and T/p 284-281 OR sell ard 300-300.5 S/L 301 and T/p 297.5-296 upto 292 (upside strong rally only on close above 305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 288/ 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


for more short time and intraday calls
contact 9994500540

MCXARUN

long view calls

ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 74/73.50 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 77.5, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 84.5 & 87.5 UPRALLY AGAIN (OCT)

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 77-75 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 80.5, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 94.5-95.5 UPRALLY AGAIN (OCT)

NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 320-305 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 332.5, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 397.5-400 UPRALLY AGAIN (OCT)


MCXARUN

safe trade calls

GOLD

PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL=13220 AS DAYS LOW WAS 13235. Broad Range seen between 13800 & 12900 for medium term, either side break will gives sharp rally. for the day sell only below 13225 S/L 13265 and T/p 13170/ 13120/sustain below towards 13000-12925 in coming days OR sell ard 13560-70 S/L 13580 and T/p 13500-450. (any time close above 13800-860 bullish while close below 13120/12900/12425/ 11775/11250 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "close below 20450 test 20000 atleast" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW WAS 20019. we book profit on sell below 20875/20650, for the day sell only below 20000 S/L 20110 and T/p 19900-850/19775/towards 19600 OR sell ard 20640-660 S/L 20675 and T/p 20550-450 (any time close below 18950/17650 bearish rally while close above 21400/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

Crude oil Inventory Schedule to release today. PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=4790 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4779. we book profit on sell below 4880/4840/4580, for the day buy on dips ard 4595-4600 S/L 4585 and T/p 4650-4690 OR sell ard 4865-70 S/L 4875 and T/p 4820-4800, only sustain abv 4960 & 5025 uptrend again (now crude need to close above 4960-5030/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4425/4250/3960 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "below 310 seen down rally sharp" & SEE PRICE BREAK 310 AND MAKE LOW OF 293.3 book profit on sell below 313.5/ 303, for the day sell below 299.5 S/L 301 and T/p 297.5-296.5/294.5/293/ sustain below towards 288 OR sell ard 308.8-309 S/L 309.5 and T/p 306.5/ 304.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/ 398 while close below 293-289/265/ 251.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 930 UPTO $ 948 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 911.5... WHILE CLOSE BELOW $ 861 SEEN TOWARDS $ 835-830 IN COMING DAYS


SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 15 TOWARDS $ 16 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 13.75/$14... ONLY CLOSE BELOW $ 11.65/ $ 10.25 BEARISH RALLY SHARP TOWARDS $ 8.75


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Gold and silver fell yesterday after Congressional leaders from both parties said they have agreed in principle to the emergency measure. The lawmakers said they would present their agreement to the White House in hopes of a vote within days. Under a set of principles endorsed by both parties, the the administration would be granted the full $700bn it sought, but with a first tranche of just $250bn and a further $100bn available without further congressional approval. Congress would get a chance to a vote on the remaining $350bn at a later date. The US Treasury was considering the proposals last night.

Washington Mutual Inc. may be seized by the US and parts sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in what will rank among the biggest banking failures in U.S. history. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. plans to take control of Seattle-based WaMu, the biggest U.S. savings and loan, according to the CNBC television network, and New York-based JPMorgan will buy deposits and branches, the Wall Street Journal said, without citing any sources. The FDIC insurance fund is not expected to contribute any money, the Journal said.

Our view on the above: Commodities will be volatile and if they are unable to break key technical resistances by next week they will fall sharply. Unless the US bail out package is confirmed gold, silver, copper and crude oil will not fall by much. Only volatility will rise. Once the US bail out package is announced, commodities will fall first and then rise.

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER

Intra day copper is bullish over $303 {LME (3 month) $6800} with $318 and $325 as the key resistance.

MCX NICKEL SEPTEMBER: Use a sell on rise strategy till nickel does not break 832-838 zone. Short term investors should buy nickel near to the 688-705 zone


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

Broad Range seen between 12350 & 13500 for medium term, either side break will gives rally. for the day sell below 12960 S/L 12990 and T/p 12930/ 12875/towards 12775 in coming days OR sell ard 12215-20 S/L 13225 and T/p 13180/13125 (any time close above 13550/13850 bullish while close below 12300/11675/11125 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day sell only below 20400 S/L 20460 and T/p 20300-200 OR buy on dips ard 20030-40 S/L 20000 and T/p 20125-200/towards 20400, anytime sustain close above 20975 seen new rally towards 22000 in coming days (any time close below 18950/17650bearish rally while close above 20975/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Crude oil Inventory schedule to release today. PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE= 5000 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4995. book profit on buy ard 4790-95, for the day sell below 4775 & more below 4755 S/L 4800 and T/p 4720-4695 OR sell ard 4950-55 S/L 4960 and T/p 4920/4890(now crude need to close above 5000/ 5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4660/4440/4250/3960 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

Continue to view as long Resistance 323.5/327 down trend continue. PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=327 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 326.95. for the day sell below 316.5 S/L 318 and T/p 315.5/313.5/ towards 312/310/below down rally OR sell ard 324.3-324.6 S/L 325 and T/p 323/321 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/ 398 while close below 310/303.5/289/ 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540