Crude oil futures rose yesterday and touched 102.24 a barrel and closed up as on growing U.S. and Nigerian supply concerns even as the dollar jumped on an emerging U.S. government plan for a comprehensive solution to the financial crisis.
According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, it would expand its reciprocal currency agreements to $180 billion, boosting its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank and setting up new currency swap arrangements with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.
In a surprise move on last Wednesday, OPEC agreed to revise its complex output targets and cut supplies by half a million barrels per day.
The economy in the United States and Europe is turning bad and people realize that the growth in the economies of China, India and Brazil will not be enough to offset what looks like a world economic contraction also added pressure in oil prices.
Light, sweet crude oil for October delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $102.24 - $95.73, before settling at $98.02a barrel yesterday.
Crude has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as growing global economic problems and high fuel prices have cut demand in top consumer the United States as well as Europe.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Crude Oil (DWTI oct.)
Crude oil price remains weak below $105. Supports are $98.50, $87 Resistances are $110.40, $115.60 and $122. If trade and sustain above 105.50, expecting more uptrend
DWTI (oct) traded in the range $101.80 - $95.80 and closed at $97.54.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $98.50; bearish below $97.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, September 19, 2008
comex gold outlook
After a fierce rally on Wednesday, Gold ended lower yesterday as the profit booking and a broad surge with stocks on news Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is talking about a Resolution Trust Corp-type solution to the current financial crisis.
According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, it would expand its reciprocal currency agreements to $180 billion, boosting its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank and setting up new currency swap arrangements with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.
At the same time the U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 10,000 last week to 455,000, more than expected and influenced by Hurricane Gustav.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 455,000 during the week ended Sept. 13 from 445,000 the prior week. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims to drop to 440,000 last week.
Meanwhile, the number of continued claims unexpectedly fell by 55,000 to 3.48 million in the week ended Sept. 6, the most recent week for which that data is available, after an increase of 129,000 the prior week.
But analysts had expected continued claims to be almost unchanged from 3.53 million in the week ended Aug. 30, which was the highest reading since October 2003.
At the same time according to the U.S. Labor Department, the consumer price index was down .1% in August and up 5.4% from a year ago, as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in August and up 2.5% from a year ago.
In a report, the U.S. trade deficit swelled to $62.2 billion, the largest since March 2007, from an upwardly revised estimate of $58.84 billion in June. Wall Street analysts had forecast the deficit to expand to $58.0 billion from the original June tally of $56.8 billion.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.60 - $841.7005a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $847.25.
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
More selling pressure expecting below $789.30 .Resistances are $798, $811, $820. Supports are $779, $772.20, and $745.if sustain above $820, expecting more uptrend
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $920.40– $857and closed at $868.20
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $880 bearish below $ 875.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, it would expand its reciprocal currency agreements to $180 billion, boosting its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank and setting up new currency swap arrangements with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.
At the same time the U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 10,000 last week to 455,000, more than expected and influenced by Hurricane Gustav.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 455,000 during the week ended Sept. 13 from 445,000 the prior week. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims to drop to 440,000 last week.
Meanwhile, the number of continued claims unexpectedly fell by 55,000 to 3.48 million in the week ended Sept. 6, the most recent week for which that data is available, after an increase of 129,000 the prior week.
But analysts had expected continued claims to be almost unchanged from 3.53 million in the week ended Aug. 30, which was the highest reading since October 2003.
At the same time according to the U.S. Labor Department, the consumer price index was down .1% in August and up 5.4% from a year ago, as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in August and up 2.5% from a year ago.
In a report, the U.S. trade deficit swelled to $62.2 billion, the largest since March 2007, from an upwardly revised estimate of $58.84 billion in June. Wall Street analysts had forecast the deficit to expand to $58.0 billion from the original June tally of $56.8 billion.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.60 - $841.7005a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $847.25.
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
More selling pressure expecting below $789.30 .Resistances are $798, $811, $820. Supports are $779, $772.20, and $745.if sustain above $820, expecting more uptrend
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $920.40– $857and closed at $868.20
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $880 bearish below $ 875.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day sell only below 13000 S/L 13035 and T/p 12940/12850/anytime sustain close below 12800 test 12450 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 13550 S/L 13500 and T/p 13600/ towards 13700 (any time close above 13550/13850 bullish while close below 12750/12300/11675/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
As long support of 18900-950, upside seen continue. for the day buy only abv 20550 S/L 20450 and T/p 20650-750-850/sustain above 20850 seen new uprally OR buy ard 19000-10 S/L 18950 and T/p 19100-200 upto 19300, only below 18900 trigger sell call again (any time close below 18950/18350/17800-650 bearish rally while close above 20850/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain abv towards 4700 in coming days" ACHIEVED AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4714. we book profit on buy abv 4520, fresh buy only abv 4660 S/L 4630 and T/p 4700-4715/sustain abv test 4825 atleast OR sell below 4470 S/L 4500 and T/p 4440/4400-4390 where support seen again (now crude need to close above 4715/4920/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4440/ 4250/3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view as long Resistance of 323.5 & 326 down trend continue. sell only below 310 S/L 311.5 and T/p 308/ 306/303.5/below down rally OR sell ard 322.8-323 S/L 323.5 and T/p 321/318.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 303..5/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day sell only below 13000 S/L 13035 and T/p 12940/12850/anytime sustain close below 12800 test 12450 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 13550 S/L 13500 and T/p 13600/ towards 13700 (any time close above 13550/13850 bullish while close below 12750/12300/11675/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
As long support of 18900-950, upside seen continue. for the day buy only abv 20550 S/L 20450 and T/p 20650-750-850/sustain above 20850 seen new uprally OR buy ard 19000-10 S/L 18950 and T/p 19100-200 upto 19300, only below 18900 trigger sell call again (any time close below 18950/18350/17800-650 bearish rally while close above 20850/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain abv towards 4700 in coming days" ACHIEVED AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4714. we book profit on buy abv 4520, fresh buy only abv 4660 S/L 4630 and T/p 4700-4715/sustain abv test 4825 atleast OR sell below 4470 S/L 4500 and T/p 4440/4400-4390 where support seen again (now crude need to close above 4715/4920/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4440/ 4250/3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
Continue to view as long Resistance of 323.5 & 326 down trend continue. sell only below 310 S/L 311.5 and T/p 308/ 306/303.5/below down rally OR sell ard 322.8-323 S/L 323.5 and T/p 321/318.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 303..5/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
comex gold outlook
Gold fell yesterday as the recovery in dollar after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 2.0 percent rather than rate cuts and also sell off from nervous Investors to cover losses.
Dollar also supported by Bloomberg report that the Federal Reserve is considering a loan package to American International Group (AIG).
Fall in crude oil price also affected the gold pieces. Oil fell sharply yesterday amid mounting concern that continued turmoil in global financial markets will further weaken fuel demand.
At the same time according to the U.S. Labor Department, the consumer price index was down .1% in August and up 5.4% from a year ago, as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in August and up 2.5% from a year ago.
At the same time according to the report, the U.S. trade deficit swelled to $62.2 billion, the largest since March 2007, from an upwardly revised estimate of $58.84 billion in June. Wall Street analysts had forecast the deficit to expand to $58.0 billion from the original June tally of $56.8 billion.
According to the ministry of mining in Peru, a leading global metals exporter, production rise in July from the same month a year earlier.
Peru is the world's second largest producer of copper, zinc and fifth largest in gold. It leads the world in silver production.
According to the report from The National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in July, was down 3.2 percent to 86.5 from an upwardly revised 89.4 in June.
International spot gold traded in the range $789.70
- $771.55a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $777.55.
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
More selling pressure expecting below $789.30 .Resistances are $798, $811, $820. Supports are $779, $772.20, and $745.if sustain above $820, expecting more uptrend
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $793.50– $776and closed at $782.10
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $786 bearish below $ 781
MCXARUN
9994500540
Dollar also supported by Bloomberg report that the Federal Reserve is considering a loan package to American International Group (AIG).
Fall in crude oil price also affected the gold pieces. Oil fell sharply yesterday amid mounting concern that continued turmoil in global financial markets will further weaken fuel demand.
At the same time according to the U.S. Labor Department, the consumer price index was down .1% in August and up 5.4% from a year ago, as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in August and up 2.5% from a year ago.
At the same time according to the report, the U.S. trade deficit swelled to $62.2 billion, the largest since March 2007, from an upwardly revised estimate of $58.84 billion in June. Wall Street analysts had forecast the deficit to expand to $58.0 billion from the original June tally of $56.8 billion.
According to the ministry of mining in Peru, a leading global metals exporter, production rise in July from the same month a year earlier.
Peru is the world's second largest producer of copper, zinc and fifth largest in gold. It leads the world in silver production.
According to the report from The National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in July, was down 3.2 percent to 86.5 from an upwardly revised 89.4 in June.
International spot gold traded in the range $789.70
- $771.55a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $777.55.
Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)
More selling pressure expecting below $789.30 .Resistances are $798, $811, $820. Supports are $779, $772.20, and $745.if sustain above $820, expecting more uptrend
Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $793.50– $776and closed at $782.10
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $786 bearish below $ 781
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
we book profit on buy abv 11710. Continue to view as long Resistance 11870 & 11950, down trend continue. for the day sell below 11660-650 S/L 11685 and T/p 11600-590/11555-535/ 11485 towards 11425 OR buy only abv 11875 S/L 11850 and T/p 11910-950/ upto 12025 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11425/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=18375 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 18374. book profit on sell below 19300/19050/18750-700, for the day sell only below 17775 S/L 17860 and T/p 17700-650/sustain close below 17650 test 17250-300 atleast/towards 17100 in coming days OR sell ard 18200-210 S/L 18225 and T/p 18100-18050 upto 18000, only sustain above 18525 uptrend again (any time close below 17650/17100 bearish rally while close above 18800/19750-20200/20850/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil Inventory schedule to release today. THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 4390 test 4330-4300 atleast" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW WAS 4251. Continue to view as long Resistance 4450 & 4610, down trend continue. for the day sell only below 4250 S/L 4280 and T/p 4215-4190/upto 4150 OR sell ard 4438-40 S/L 4450 and T/p 4400/4350. (now crude need to close above 4610/4920/5305/ 5460 for bullish rally while close below 4250/3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES. Continue to view as long Resistance of 321 & 326 down trend continue. book profit on sell below 319-318.5/314.5, for the day sell below 314 S/L 315.5 and T/p 313/311.75/310/below down rally OR sell ard 325.2-325.5 S/L 326 and T/p 323-21/319 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/339/351.25/360.5/ 387/398 while close below 303.5/289/ 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
we book profit on buy abv 11710. Continue to view as long Resistance 11870 & 11950, down trend continue. for the day sell below 11660-650 S/L 11685 and T/p 11600-590/11555-535/ 11485 towards 11425 OR buy only abv 11875 S/L 11850 and T/p 11910-950/ upto 12025 (any time close above 11950/12680/12950/13550/13850 bullish while close below 11425/11125 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE=18375 AS DAYS HIGH WAS 18374. book profit on sell below 19300/19050/18750-700, for the day sell only below 17775 S/L 17860 and T/p 17700-650/sustain close below 17650 test 17250-300 atleast/towards 17100 in coming days OR sell ard 18200-210 S/L 18225 and T/p 18100-18050 upto 18000, only sustain above 18525 uptrend again (any time close below 17650/17100 bearish rally while close above 18800/19750-20200/20850/ 22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil Inventory schedule to release today. THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 4390 test 4330-4300 atleast" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW WAS 4251. Continue to view as long Resistance 4450 & 4610, down trend continue. for the day sell only below 4250 S/L 4280 and T/p 4215-4190/upto 4150 OR sell ard 4438-40 S/L 4450 and T/p 4400/4350. (now crude need to close above 4610/4920/5305/ 5460 for bullish rally while close below 4250/3960 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN LEVEL ON BOTH SIDES. Continue to view as long Resistance of 321 & 326 down trend continue. book profit on sell below 319-318.5/314.5, for the day sell below 314 S/L 315.5 and T/p 313/311.75/310/below down rally OR sell ard 325.2-325.5 S/L 326 and T/p 323-21/319 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/339/351.25/360.5/ 387/398 while close below 303.5/289/ 265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view calls
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 295/288 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 305 & 303, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 339 UPTREND AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 91-92 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 87 AND CLOSE ABOVE 92.5 SEEN NEW UPRALLY, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 76.8 TEST 73.5/71, ONLY ABOVE 86 BULLISH RALLY (SEP)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 970-980/UPTO 1000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 945, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 829 TEST 800 ATLEAST(SEP)
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 74-75 TOWARDS 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 93.5 & 99-100 SEEN BULLISH RALLY SHARP (SEP)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 128-29 UPTO 132 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 124, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 115.5 TEST 113, BELOW DOWN RALLY (SEP)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 405-420 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 385, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 314.5 TEST 300 ATLEAST (SEP)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 295/288 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 305 & 303, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 339 UPTREND AGAIN(NOV)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 91-92 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 87 AND CLOSE ABOVE 92.5 SEEN NEW UPRALLY, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 76.8 TEST 73.5/71, ONLY ABOVE 86 BULLISH RALLY (SEP)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 970-980/UPTO 1000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 945, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 829 TEST 800 ATLEAST(SEP)
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 74-75 TOWARDS 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 93.5 & 99-100 SEEN BULLISH RALLY SHARP (SEP)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 128-29 UPTO 132 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 124, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 115.5 TEST 113, BELOW DOWN RALLY (SEP)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 405-420 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 385, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 314.5 TEST 300 ATLEAST (SEP)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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