silver intraday

Silver has finally taken out 16.85, the 200 day moving average. The unit extended toward 16.56, opening up a visit to April’s low of 16.01. Bearish price action for silver has it underperforming gold again. The gold silver ratio has moved back to 53.00. Precious metals risk deeper liquidation now that longer term moving averages have been broken. Now support for the silver is seen at 23171 and below could see a test of 22950. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 23757, a move above could see prices testing 24122.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 22950-24122.
SILVER IS BELOW 16.56$ CAN FIND THE SUPPORT TILL 16.22-15.96$
SELL SILVER @ 23800-900 SL 24056 TGT 23635-23522-23380-23120.MCX
BELOW 23000 IS BEARISH AS 3 TIMES PREVIOUSLY MKT HAD JUMP FROM THIS LEVEL

MCXARUN
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mcx gold intraday

Gold tumbled down through the 200 day moving average yesterday at 888. The move extended to just shy of our June reactionary low near 875. The technical picture remains negative while gold holds below the down channel top at 908. Downside support is positioned at 857.50. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12066 and below could see a test of 11968. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12320, a move above could see prices testing 12476.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 11968-12476.
BUY GOLD @ 12150-165 SL 12090 TGT 12200-235-270-310. MCYESTERDAYS BTST)
SELL GOLD @ 12320-350 SL 12390 TGT 12270-12215-12160-12080. MCX
A BREAK OF 12100 IS BEARISH TILL 12000-11860. MCX
CRUDE IS STILL BELOW 120$ CREATING PRESSURE ON BULLION


MCXARUN
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nymex crude outlook

Oil prices fell yesterday and traded near to three month low and closed at $119.17 a barrel with oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico starting to return to normal as Tropical Storm Edouard moved inland after striking the Texas coast. Sign of increased OPEC output and the threat to demand from economic slowdown also affected the crude movement.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $121.23 - $118, before settling at $118.58 a barrel.

In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.

The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns.


Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.

OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.

NYMEX Crude Oil September

Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $121.13 - $118.15 and closed at $119.17.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $119.40; bearish below $118.9

MCXARUN
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comex gold outlook

Gold ended lower yesterday as the fall in crude oil price and broad recovery in dollar. Crude futures ended lower on Tuesday, with oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico starting to return to normal as Tropical Storm Edouard moved inland after striking the Texas coast. Sign of increased OPEC output and the threat to demand from economic slowdown also affected the crude movement.

On Tuesday The Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates steady at 2 percent, expressing concerns about both economic growth and inflation and indicating it is in no rush to push borrowing costs higher.

From Friday onwards gold has been under pressure as dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and manufacturing data.

According to the data, U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 non-farm jobs in July against market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. But U.S. unemployment rate changed to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent, its highest level in four years.

International spot gold traded in the range $894.9- $872.8 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $873.25 ($893.65).

But data’s from different sectors are giving a mixed trend in the US economy

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices in 20 major US cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, and fell 1% in May compared with April.

Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Expecting weakness below $899.30, Otherwise expecting recovery. Supports are $ 893, $884, $873.Resistances $911, $920.60, $936.60

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $896.7– $878.1 and closed at $878.5

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 885.5; bearish below $ 885

MCXARUN
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crude intraday

Crude oil fell to a three-month low as Tropical Storm Edouard will avoid most offshore production facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast as it approaches Texas. Now support for the crude is seen at 5027 and below could see a test of 4929. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5292, a move above could see prices testing 5459.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 4929-5459.
CRUDE BELOW 120$ BEARISH TILL 116.70-112.40$.
SELL CRUDE @ 5250-280 SL 5320 TGT 5225-5200-5175-5120-5060. MCX
A BREAK AND RETAIN BELOW 5080 CAN BRING TILL 4980-4920 LVL.

MCXARUN
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nickel intraday

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 264 against the previous of -84 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 772 a kg after opening at Rs .799, and last traded at Rs 776.2.For today market is looking for the support at 765.8, a break below could see a test of 755.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 792.8, a move above could see prices testing 809.4.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 755.00-809.00.
HOLD / SELL NICKEL AUG @ 790-795 SL 802 TGT 784-780-776-770-760. MCX
OVERALL NICKEL IS WEAK AND BEARISH AND WE LOOK SUPPORT AT 700-680 LEVEL

MCXARUN
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copper intraday

Copper futures in Shanghai plunged to the lowest in more than six months as global stockpiles rose to a five-month high, raising speculation demand may be slowing. Yesterday the LME copper was 1550mt against the previous of 2250mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 322.2 a kg after opening at Rs 336, and last traded at Rs322.65.For today market is looking for the support at 317.8, a break below could see a test of 312.95 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 331.9, a move above could see prices testing 341.15.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 313.00-340.00.
SELL COPPER @ 328-329 SL 331.20 TGT 325.60-323.70-321.40-318. MCX
A JUMP CAN BE SEEN TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY FALL
BUY COPPER @ 319-320 SL 317.80 TGT 322.50-324.20-326.80. MCX

MCXARUN
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