nymex crude outlook

Oil prices fell yesterday and traded near to three month low and closed at $119.17 a barrel with oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico starting to return to normal as Tropical Storm Edouard moved inland after striking the Texas coast. Sign of increased OPEC output and the threat to demand from economic slowdown also affected the crude movement.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $121.23 - $118, before settling at $118.58 a barrel.

In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.

The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns.


Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.

OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.

NYMEX Crude Oil September

Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $121.13 - $118.15 and closed at $119.17.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $119.40; bearish below $118.9

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comex gold outlook

Gold ended lower yesterday as the fall in crude oil price and broad recovery in dollar. Crude futures ended lower on Tuesday, with oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico starting to return to normal as Tropical Storm Edouard moved inland after striking the Texas coast. Sign of increased OPEC output and the threat to demand from economic slowdown also affected the crude movement.

On Tuesday The Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates steady at 2 percent, expressing concerns about both economic growth and inflation and indicating it is in no rush to push borrowing costs higher.

From Friday onwards gold has been under pressure as dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and manufacturing data.

According to the data, U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 non-farm jobs in July against market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. But U.S. unemployment rate changed to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent, its highest level in four years.

International spot gold traded in the range $894.9- $872.8 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $873.25 ($893.65).

But data’s from different sectors are giving a mixed trend in the US economy

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices in 20 major US cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, and fell 1% in May compared with April.

Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Expecting weakness below $899.30, Otherwise expecting recovery. Supports are $ 893, $884, $873.Resistances $911, $920.60, $936.60

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $896.7– $878.1 and closed at $878.5

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 885.5; bearish below $ 885

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crude intraday

Crude oil fell to a three-month low as Tropical Storm Edouard will avoid most offshore production facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast as it approaches Texas. Now support for the crude is seen at 5027 and below could see a test of 4929. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5292, a move above could see prices testing 5459.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 4929-5459.
CRUDE BELOW 120$ BEARISH TILL 116.70-112.40$.
SELL CRUDE @ 5250-280 SL 5320 TGT 5225-5200-5175-5120-5060. MCX
A BREAK AND RETAIN BELOW 5080 CAN BRING TILL 4980-4920 LVL.

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nickel intraday

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was 264 against the previous of -84 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 772 a kg after opening at Rs .799, and last traded at Rs 776.2.For today market is looking for the support at 765.8, a break below could see a test of 755.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 792.8, a move above could see prices testing 809.4.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 755.00-809.00.
HOLD / SELL NICKEL AUG @ 790-795 SL 802 TGT 784-780-776-770-760. MCX
OVERALL NICKEL IS WEAK AND BEARISH AND WE LOOK SUPPORT AT 700-680 LEVEL

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copper intraday

Copper futures in Shanghai plunged to the lowest in more than six months as global stockpiles rose to a five-month high, raising speculation demand may be slowing. Yesterday the LME copper was 1550mt against the previous of 2250mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 322.2 a kg after opening at Rs 336, and last traded at Rs322.65.For today market is looking for the support at 317.8, a break below could see a test of 312.95 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 331.9, a move above could see prices testing 341.15.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 313.00-340.00.
SELL COPPER @ 328-329 SL 331.20 TGT 325.60-323.70-321.40-318. MCX
A JUMP CAN BE SEEN TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY FALL
BUY COPPER @ 319-320 SL 317.80 TGT 322.50-324.20-326.80. MCX

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mcx silver intraday

Silver opened at 1736/1740 and moved within a range during the early part of the session, climbing to a high of 1744/1748. This level was not sustained as base metals and oil both fell, dragging silver lower and triggering stops which pushed the metal to a low of 1687/1691. Silver quickly recovered from the lows as dealers bought, finally closing at 1713/1717. Now support for the silver is seen at 23649 and below could see a test of 23318. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 24472, a move above could see prices testing 24964.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 23318-24964.
SILVER IS BELOW 17$ CAN FIND THE SUPPORT TILL 16.56$
WAIT FOR FRESH ENTRY AS BELOW 24000 MARK MARKET IS LOOKING WEAK AND BEARISH TILL 23360. MCX

mcx gold intraday

Gold opened at 901.25/902.25 in New York and climbed on the back of weaker equity markets, reaching a high of 909.50/910.50. Oil later tumbled on news that Tropical Storm Edouard would not cause disruption to oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and gold followed, slipping to a low of 894.50/895.50. The metal ticked higher from the lows on good bids closing at 899.25/900.25. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12318 and below could see a test of 12217. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12600, a move above could see prices testing 12781.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 12217-12781.
SELL GOLD @ 12550-580 SL 12622 TGT 12520-480-435-380. MCX
IMP WILL BE 888$.
RISKY TRADER CAN BUY GOLD @ 12300-330 SL 12270 TGT 12365-12390-12460. MCX
IMPORTANT IS 888$ A BOUNCE TILL 898-905$ CAN BE SEEN BELOW 888$ TARGET CAN BE 862$

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