mcx silver intraday

Silver is actually showing a minor up week, following an aggressive two week down move that brought the unit from 19.47 to 16.84. The overall technical picture remains bearish, with the sell level now seen at 18.00. A break of the 200 day ma will lead to initial support at 16.00, from the April low, followed by 15.20, the January reactionary low. Now support for the silver is seen at 24158 and below could see a test of 23837. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 24753, a move above could see prices testing 25027.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 23837-25027.
BUY SILVER ABV 24510 SL 24450 TGT 24570-24610-24650. MCX
SELL ONLY BELOW 24250 SL 24320 TGT 24180-24150-24080. MCX


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mcx gold intraday

Gold is registering its third down week in a row, off of a high of 988. This is the first time we have seen three consecutive down weeks since May 2007. One has to look all the way back to March/April 2006 to see five consecutive weekly down candles. This moving average appears pivotal, with a break leading to 874 and possibly 858, the June low. Only a move back above 935 will neutralize the overall bearish picture. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12483 and below could see a test of 12366. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 12704, a move above could see prices testing 12808.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 12366-12808.
BUY GOLD OCT ABV 12630 SL 12600 TGT 12672-12690-12726. MCX
IMPORTANT RANGE IS 903-920$

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nymex crude outlook

Oil recovered from $122 level and closed at $125.30 a barrel on Friday as traders reacted to concerns about Iran and its nuclear dispute with the West. Continuing supply threat from Nigeria also affected the oil prices.

At the same time Gasoline futures also edged up on Friday as due to the scheduled autumn maintenance.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $128.60 - $122.10, before settling at $125.30 a barrel.

In market influencing news, the President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased.

The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns.


Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.

OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.

NYMEX Crude Oil September

Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $128.56 - $122.16 and closed at $125.10 .

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $125.50; bearish below $124.90


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comex gold outlook

Gold ended lower on Friday as the dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and manufacturing data.

According to the data, U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 non-farm jobs in July against market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. But U.S. unemployment rate changed to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent, its highest level in four years.

The unexpected recent data’s influenced the investors and provided some scope for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by year-end or early 2009.

But on Thursday gold rose to $925 level and settled at $912.85 as dollar dropped after weaker-than-expected U.S. job data and below-forecast economic growth in the second quarter.

International spot gold traded in the range $916.9 - $901.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $909.55 ($912.85).

But data’s from different sectors are giving a mixed trend in the US economy

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices in 20 major US cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, and fell 1% in May compared with April.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin had said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.

Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Expecting weakness below $899.30, Otherwise expecting recovery. Supports are $ 893, $884, $873.Resistances $911, $920.60, $936.60

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $921 – $906 and closed at $914.20

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 916.50; bearish below $ 911.3


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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s a central bank week. We have the Federal reserve meeting, the European central bank, and the bank of England. I do not expect any surprises from them except soothing comments to stabilize the financial markets. The crude oil-US dollar and precious metals relationship will continue this week too. Crude oil rose as a storm Edouard threatened U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico and Israel and U.S. officials sought extra sanctions against Iran. Crude oil will command a hurricane premium for the whole of August and early September. (Although the hurricane season lasts until November). Crude oil will fall as and when storm risk fades.

Iran didn't respond by an August 2 deadline to an offer from the U.S., Russia, China, France, the U.K. and Germany of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium-enrichment program. Iranian risk will continue right throughout the year until there is an armed attack on Iranian soil. The US may not attack Iran and instead may support Israel to attack Iran. This way it will avoid internal resentment on war.

It will be a technical trade this week. Economic numbers may not have impact on commodity price movement. Base metals, one should look for a bottom and invest in October or December futures. Nickel and Zinc should form a bottom soon. The Olympics is beginning this week and trading volumes will not be affected during the events.

SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE

Failure of silver to break $1830 and $1930 in August will result in a fall to $1626 and $1554.


MCXARUN
9994500540

zinc intraday

Zinc futures in Shanghai fell the most in two weeks after China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal, removed export rebates from today. Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 1.36%. Market has opened at 81 & made a low of 80.7 versus the day high of 84.9. The total volume for the day was at 15564 lots and the open interest was at 7233.Now support for the zinc is seen at 80 and below could see a test of 78.25. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 84.2, a move above could see prices testing 86.65.

Trading Idea

TRADING RANGE IS 78.00-85.00.
BUY ZINC AUG @ 79-79.50 SL 78.40 TGT 80.50-81.20-81.90-82.80. MCX
OVERALL MARKET IS SIDEWAY AND RANGE BOUND

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -96 against the previous of 498 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 790 a kg after opening at Rs .804.9, and last traded at Rs 796.7.For today market is looking for the support at 785.70, a break below could see a test of 774.70 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 811.90, a move above could see prices testing 827.10.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 770-825.
SELL NICKEL AUG @ 805-808 SL 810.80 TGT 796-792-786-782-776. MCX
SELLING IS BEST ON ANY RISE OVER AND TARGET IS 680-700 IN AUG

MCXARUN
9994500540