GOLD
buy abv 12810 & more abv 12850 S/L 12790 and T/p 12880-890/towards 13000 OR sell below 12670-660 S/L 12685 and T/p 12630-580/12525/below down rally towards 12375 in coming days (any time close above 13465/ 13775 bullish while close below 12525/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500/ 24950/24225/24150, for the day buy only abv 24775-800 S/L 24730 and T/p 24900-950/25075/upto 25175 OR sell below 24375 S/L 24440 and T/p 24300-225/150/24000/close below test 23650 atleast in coming days (any time close below 24000/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/ 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE = 5320 AS Days HIGH =5317 for the day buy only abv 5370 S/L 5350 and T/p 5405-5435/ towards 5510 OR sell below 5205/5180 & more below 5150 S/L 5220 and T/p 5100-5060/below down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/ 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5175-5150/5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 344/338, for the day buy only abv 342 S/L 340.5 and T/p 343-343.5/towards 346 OR sell below 337 S/L 338 and T/p 335.5/333/ 330.5/sustain below down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 333-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
comex crude intraday
Fresh attacks on Nigerian pipelines and comments by Iran's president raised concerns over global oil supplies and lifted the prices above $125 a barrel in NYMEX.
Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $122.63 - $125.22, before settling at $125.03 a barrel.
The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns. The two-week deadline from world powers for Iran to give a final answer on its nuclear plans will end on Saturday.
A Nigerian militant group claimed on Monday to have attacked a couple of pipelines owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.
OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles in the second week of July, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.
DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $122.76 - $125.10 and closed at $124.73 ($123.26).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $124.55; bearish below $124.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $122.63 - $125.22, before settling at $125.03 a barrel.
The President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said that Iran has more than 5,000 active centrifuges for enriching uranium, keeping the focus on geopolitical concerns. The two-week deadline from world powers for Iran to give a final answer on its nuclear plans will end on Saturday.
A Nigerian militant group claimed on Monday to have attacked a couple of pipelines owned by Royal Dutch Shell.
Oil price had retreated from record high levels in the previous two weeks, weighed down by concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand. Easing of storm threat also added to the pressure. Tropical Storm Dolly did not have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Early this month, OPEC had downwardly revised the world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009.
OPEC in its latest monthly report had lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.
Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles in the second week of July, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of weakness expected below $119.80. Supports are $116.00, $110.00, $105.00. Otherwise expecting recovery; resistances $126.40, $132.00, $139.00.
DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $122.76 - $125.10 and closed at $124.73 ($123.26).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $124.55; bearish below $124.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold edged higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies and oil price inched up above $125 a barrel in NYMEX.
International spot gold traded in the range $922.35 - $932.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $929.90 ($928.70).
Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.
Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.
However worries remained as two more US banks were shut down by federal regulators late Friday, bringing the number of bank failures so far this year to seven.
Dollar had drifted lower on Friday after a report from Commerce Department showed US new home sales in US fell 0.6 % in June, the second straight monthly decline, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000.
Among US data released on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 34,000 to stand at 406,000 for the week ended July 19, according to the US Labor Department.
The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% fall in US existing home sales in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million, the lowest level in 10 years.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.
Also according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight on Tuesday, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Recovery expected above $936.60. Resistances are $943, $950, $959; supports $923, $915, $908.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $923.10 – $933.00 and closed at $931.20 ($929.60).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 932; bearish below $ 927
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $922.35 - $932.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $929.90 ($928.70).
Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin said Monday that recent adverse shocks to the economy - including the financial market turmoil and the sharp increase in the price of oil - may affect the economy for longer than the next three years.
Meanwhile, the US Senate cleared a bill designed to prop up the struggling US housing market and rescue the struggling giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Saturday. The bill includes billions of dollars in loan guarantees, a tax break for first-time homebuyers and many other provisions.
However worries remained as two more US banks were shut down by federal regulators late Friday, bringing the number of bank failures so far this year to seven.
Dollar had drifted lower on Friday after a report from Commerce Department showed US new home sales in US fell 0.6 % in June, the second straight monthly decline, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000.
Among US data released on Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 34,000 to stand at 406,000 for the week ended July 19, according to the US Labor Department.
The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% fall in US existing home sales in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million, the lowest level in 10 years.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report of economic conditions last week showed price pressures were intensifying even as growth slowed over the past month.
Also according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight on Tuesday, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Recovery expected above $936.60. Resistances are $943, $950, $959; supports $923, $915, $908.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $923.10 – $933.00 and closed at $931.20 ($929.60).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 932; bearish below $ 927
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The Bush administration projected the U.S. budget deficit will soar to a record of nearly half a trillion dollars in fiscal 2009 as a housing-led economic slowdown cuts into government revenues. The new report said the budget deficit would fall to $178 billion in 2010, and surpluses would emerge in 2012. However, the deficit projections did not include the full amount of funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan or costly tax law changes, and acknowledged it would be a "challenge" to reach surpluses in 2012. A prudent overseas investor will not buy into US government instruments. Precious metals will benefit as a result of the same.
The US financial crisis is spreading from subprime borrowers to wealthier consumers, with evidence mounting that more affluent people are failing to pay their mortgages and credit card balances. Growing concerns over the financial health of richer borrowers are prompting banks and card issuers to tighten lending practices in moves that could further dampen consumer confidence and spending. More positive news for gold, that is all I can say.
Lead, zinc and other base metals will remain firm on reduced Chinese production capacity and firm global demand. Nickel should bottom out soon. Long term investors should invest in Nickel as the risk to return ratio is in favour of the buyers.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0
200 day MA around $354 is the key support. Resistance is at 100 day MA around $378. Falls below $354 will result in $347 and $339.
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
(from insignia)
MCXARUN
9994500540
The US financial crisis is spreading from subprime borrowers to wealthier consumers, with evidence mounting that more affluent people are failing to pay their mortgages and credit card balances. Growing concerns over the financial health of richer borrowers are prompting banks and card issuers to tighten lending practices in moves that could further dampen consumer confidence and spending. More positive news for gold, that is all I can say.
Lead, zinc and other base metals will remain firm on reduced Chinese production capacity and firm global demand. Nickel should bottom out soon. Long term investors should invest in Nickel as the risk to return ratio is in favour of the buyers.
COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0
200 day MA around $354 is the key support. Resistance is at 100 day MA around $378. Falls below $354 will result in $347 and $339.
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
(from insignia)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
mcx gold
Gold -The unit sold off aggressively from the 976 high, taking out channel support at 954 as well as last week’s low near 951. Gold has since touched the June high support of 946. The break and close below the channel support turns our view neutral. The risks have turned toward further losses in the days ahead, with next support seen at 942. Stale longs may look to exit now, close to 955.Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12911 and below could see a test of 12748. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13351, a move above could see prices testing 13628.
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12748-13628.
SELL GOLD @ 13156-180 SL 13260 TGT 13000-12940-12845-12680. MCX
A BREAK OF 12960 ADD SHORT FOR TGT 12860-12845-12680. MCX
REMEMBER EVE WEAK SAME AS YESTERDAY
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading Ideas:
TRADING RANGE IS 12748-13628.
SELL GOLD @ 13156-180 SL 13260 TGT 13000-12940-12845-12680. MCX
A BREAK OF 12960 ADD SHORT FOR TGT 12860-12845-12680. MCX
REMEMBER EVE WEAK SAME AS YESTERDAY
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold reversed gains yesterday and closed $20 lower as the dollar bounced back and oil price fell.
International spot gold traded in the range $975.95 - $942.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $945.00 ($965.30).
Dollar recovered on supportive comments from top officials - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
But according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
US Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of future economic activity, showed a decline of 0.1% in June. The result for May, which had been estimated to have risen 0.1%, was revised to a decline of 0.2%. The index has slipped 0.9 percent for the six months ending in June.
Oil price fell after worries that storms may disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of Mexico eased. According to latest reports, Tropical Storm Dolly is not expected to have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf.
A smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup Inc, the largest bank in US, last week had slightly eased worries about the US financial sector.
Weekly data from the US Labor Department showed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to 366,000 in the week ended July 12, but the four-week average of initial claims fell 4,500 to 376,500. Continuing claims fell to 3.12 million for the week ended July 5, down 81,000. The four-week average of continuing jobless claims increased by 16,500 to 3.14 million, the highest level since February 2004.
According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on last Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said last week that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.
The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
More correction expected below $948. Resistances are $959.10, $966.40, $972.00; Supports $936, $925, $912.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $976.30 – $944.30 and closed at $945.80 ($964.80).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 955.50; bearish below $ 950.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $975.95 - $942.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $945.00 ($965.30).
Dollar recovered on supportive comments from top officials - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
But according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.
US Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of future economic activity, showed a decline of 0.1% in June. The result for May, which had been estimated to have risen 0.1%, was revised to a decline of 0.2%. The index has slipped 0.9 percent for the six months ending in June.
Oil price fell after worries that storms may disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of Mexico eased. According to latest reports, Tropical Storm Dolly is not expected to have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf.
A smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup Inc, the largest bank in US, last week had slightly eased worries about the US financial sector.
Weekly data from the US Labor Department showed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to 366,000 in the week ended July 12, but the four-week average of initial claims fell 4,500 to 376,500. Continuing claims fell to 3.12 million for the week ended July 5, down 81,000. The four-week average of continuing jobless claims increased by 16,500 to 3.14 million, the highest level since February 2004.
According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on last Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.
The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said last week that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.
The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).
Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.
The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
More correction expected below $948. Resistances are $959.10, $966.40, $972.00; Supports $936, $925, $912.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $976.30 – $944.30 and closed at $945.80 ($964.80).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 955.50; bearish below $ 950.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day sell only below 13025 S/L 13045 and T/p 12950-900/towards 12775 in coming days OR sell ard 13285-295 S/L 13300 and T/p 13245-210 upto 13160 (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13025/ 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 25325 towards 25000" ACHIEVED EXACTLY AS DAYS LOW=25000 book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500, for the day sell below 24950 S/L 25010 and T/p 24850/24725/ sustain close below towards 24300 & 23700 in coming days OR sell ard 25610-25 S/L 25650 and T/p 25500-425/ 25375 (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE LEVEL book profit on sell ard 5650-55/5530-10, for the day sell only below 5375 S/L 5405 and T/p 5340-5300/towards 5200-5150 in coming days OR sell ard 5588-92 S/L 5600 and T/p 5560-5500 THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON 17-7 "close below seen new down rally" (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5375/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 344 S/L 345.5 and T/p 341-40/upto 338.5 OR sell ard 352.4-352.6 S/L 353 and T/p 350.5/349, only sustain abv 353 trigger buy now (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 344/331.5-330.5/326/ 311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day sell only below 13025 S/L 13045 and T/p 12950-900/towards 12775 in coming days OR sell ard 13285-295 S/L 13300 and T/p 13245-210 upto 13160 (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13025/ 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 25325 towards 25000" ACHIEVED EXACTLY AS DAYS LOW=25000 book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500, for the day sell below 24950 S/L 25010 and T/p 24850/24725/ sustain close below towards 24300 & 23700 in coming days OR sell ard 25610-25 S/L 25650 and T/p 25500-425/ 25375 (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE LEVEL book profit on sell ard 5650-55/5530-10, for the day sell only below 5375 S/L 5405 and T/p 5340-5300/towards 5200-5150 in coming days OR sell ard 5588-92 S/L 5600 and T/p 5560-5500 THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON 17-7 "close below seen new down rally" (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5375/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 344 S/L 345.5 and T/p 341-40/upto 338.5 OR sell ard 352.4-352.6 S/L 353 and T/p 350.5/349, only sustain abv 353 trigger buy now (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 344/331.5-330.5/326/ 311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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