DGCX Crude Outlook July 10, 2008
10 July 2008 11:40:26
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains and closed relatively flat, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East with Iran’s test firing of missiles, and a sharp drop in US crude inventories.
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange had traded as high as $138.28, before settling at $135.62 a barrel.
US Crude supplies declined by 5.9 million barrels to 293.9 million for the week ended July 4, according to the latest release by US Energy Department on Wednesday.
The US Energy Information Administration lowered OPEC oil output forecast in 2008 to 32.32 million barrels per day, down 40,000 barrels per day from the agency's prior forecast in June.
The oil market had witnessed one of the deepest single-day falls in the recent times on Tuesday, as profit booking from the higher levels continued amid warning from G8 leaders.
The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States warned on Tuesday that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.
Iran reportedly submitted a response to offers of negotiation on its nuclear program. Iranian Government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elhma said on Sunday that Tehran was ready to negotiate on its programme but indicated it would not halt uranium enrichment.
Crude oil had recorded a fresh all-time high on July 3rd, underpinned by short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria and a drop in US crude inventories.
Comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.
Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.
At a meeting of oil producers and consumers, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.
But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early in June, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $146. Resistances $149.70, $154.80, $160.00; supports $142.60, $139.80, $132.00.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $138.20 - $135.40 and closed at $136.05 ($136.04).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 136.65; bearish below 136.10
MCXARUN
Thursday, July 10, 2008
comex gold outlook
DGCX Gold Outlook July 10, 2008
10 July 2008 11:47:24
Gold pared some of the early week losses and closed moderately higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies. Safe haven appeal of the bullion was also boosted by Iran’s test firing of missiles yesterday, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
International spot gold traded in the range $915.60 - $928.75 and last quoted at $927.75 ($919.50).
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Weak pending home sales data from the US released on Tuesday also weighed on the greenback. The National Association of Realtors' seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4.7% to 84.7 from an upwardly revised April reading of 88.9.
The dollar had firmed against major currencies on Tuesday, finding support in comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed may extend its lending facilities for troubled financial institutions into next year.
In a widely expected decision, the European Central Bank had raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent last week.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department. At the same time, US payrolls in June fell by 62,000. The payrolls have now declined in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000.
Indicating better-than-expected manufacturing activity in the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 50.2% in June from 49.6% in May.
The National Association of Realtors had reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said last week that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains amid volatility. In the G8 summit, leaders had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Expecting weakness below $925. Supports are $918, $906, $885; resistances $936, $947, $955.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $918.50 – $930.30 and closed at $928.70 ($922.40).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 929; bearish below $ 924
MCXARUN
10 July 2008 11:47:24
Gold pared some of the early week losses and closed moderately higher yesterday as the dollar weakened against the major currencies. Safe haven appeal of the bullion was also boosted by Iran’s test firing of missiles yesterday, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
International spot gold traded in the range $915.60 - $928.75 and last quoted at $927.75 ($919.50).
Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday, including a new long-range missile capable of striking Israel.
Weak pending home sales data from the US released on Tuesday also weighed on the greenback. The National Association of Realtors' seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4.7% to 84.7 from an upwardly revised April reading of 88.9.
The dollar had firmed against major currencies on Tuesday, finding support in comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed may extend its lending facilities for troubled financial institutions into next year.
In a widely expected decision, the European Central Bank had raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent last week.
The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department. At the same time, US payrolls in June fell by 62,000. The payrolls have now declined in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000.
Indicating better-than-expected manufacturing activity in the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 50.2% in June from 49.6% in May.
The National Association of Realtors had reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said last week that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Oil prices failed to hold on to early-day gains amid volatility. In the G8 summit, leaders had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Expecting weakness below $925. Supports are $918, $906, $885; resistances $936, $947, $955.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $918.50 – $930.30 and closed at $928.70 ($922.40).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 929; bearish below $ 924
MCXARUN
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Base metals rose sharply. Lead and Zinc were the star performers on valued based buying and short covering. Copper fell but recovered a sharp pull back. Fund managers seem to have started investing in zinc and lead which if it continues could result in the resumption of a bull run. It’s too early to comment whether zinc and lead have bottomed out, but we need to watch until next week to get a clear picture. South Korea plans to triple its base metal reserve stockpiles to ease tight domestic supply as manufacturers struggle to secure raw materials due to soaring commodity prices. South Korea plans to raise reserve stockpiles on 12 key products, including copper, aluminium and nickel, from 19 to 60 days worth of supply. It will also expand stockpiles to cover 10 more materials. If other countries follow South Korea then base metals will zoom in 2009 and zinc, lead and Nickel, the worst performers so far this year, should be worth investing in the long term.
Japan should start a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) with about $33 billion in assets, using interest earned on its $1 trillion of foreign reserves, said Takatoshi Ito, a member of a government advisory committee. The fund would invest in higher-yielding assets overseas including equities. It needs to be set up ``as soon as possible'' to avoid exchange-rate fluctuations that may hurt the nation's reserves, he added. Forget hedge funds and focus on what the SWF’s are doing. SWF investment could be for strategic purposes which over the coming years (after 2010) may lead to protectionism. Positive news for gold.
Financial Technologies India on Wednesday unveiled plans to open a new commodity derivatives exchange in Singapore by early next year. Financial Technologies, which already operates commodities exchanges, founded India’s Multi Commodities Exchange and is a co-owner of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange. The company said its new venture, to be called the Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), would provide a platform for futures and options trading on precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural commodities, currency pairs, carbon credits and commodity indices. More commodity exchanges in the world imply higher commodity prices in the long term. This is simple logic. Long term investors should stay invested in commodities.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Needs to hold $1913 to be in bullish zone and target $2055+
MCXARUN
Japan should start a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) with about $33 billion in assets, using interest earned on its $1 trillion of foreign reserves, said Takatoshi Ito, a member of a government advisory committee. The fund would invest in higher-yielding assets overseas including equities. It needs to be set up ``as soon as possible'' to avoid exchange-rate fluctuations that may hurt the nation's reserves, he added. Forget hedge funds and focus on what the SWF’s are doing. SWF investment could be for strategic purposes which over the coming years (after 2010) may lead to protectionism. Positive news for gold.
Financial Technologies India on Wednesday unveiled plans to open a new commodity derivatives exchange in Singapore by early next year. Financial Technologies, which already operates commodities exchanges, founded India’s Multi Commodities Exchange and is a co-owner of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange. The company said its new venture, to be called the Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), would provide a platform for futures and options trading on precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural commodities, currency pairs, carbon credits and commodity indices. More commodity exchanges in the world imply higher commodity prices in the long term. This is simple logic. Long term investors should stay invested in commodities.
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Needs to hold $1913 to be in bullish zone and target $2055+
MCXARUN
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
zinc intraday
Zinc could jump till 82.50
09 July 2008 11:56:37
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.59%. Market has opened at 79.25 & made a low of 76.35 versus the day high of 79.85. The total volume for the day was at 7795 lots and the open interest was at 6956.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.75 and below could see a test of 74.3. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 79.25, a move above could see prices testing 81.3.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 74.30-81.30.
• BUY ZINC @ 76.50 SL 75.90 TGT 77.20-78.50. MCX
• SELL ZINC BELOW 79.00 SL 79.60 TGT 78.55-78.10-77.60. MCX
• A TRADE ABV 80.60 COULD JUMP TILL 82.50 ELSE WEAK
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:56:37
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.59%. Market has opened at 79.25 & made a low of 76.35 versus the day high of 79.85. The total volume for the day was at 7795 lots and the open interest was at 6956.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.75 and below could see a test of 74.3. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 79.25, a move above could see prices testing 81.3.
Trading Idea
• TRADING RANGE IS 74.30-81.30.
• BUY ZINC @ 76.50 SL 75.90 TGT 77.20-78.50. MCX
• SELL ZINC BELOW 79.00 SL 79.60 TGT 78.55-78.10-77.60. MCX
• A TRADE ABV 80.60 COULD JUMP TILL 82.50 ELSE WEAK
MCXARUN
nickel intraday
LME Nickle trading range is 884-925
09 July 2008 12:05:10
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -12 against the previous of -48 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 896 a kg after opening at Rs .912, and last traded at Rs 901.For today market is looking for the support at 892.5, a break below could see a test of 884 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 913, a move above could see prices testing 925.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 884-925.
• SELL NICKLE @ 912-916 SL 923.60 TGT 905-900-892-884. MCX
• SELL NICKEL BELOW 900 SL 912.50 TGT 892-885-880-873.50. MCX
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 12:05:10
Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -12 against the previous of -48 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 896 a kg after opening at Rs .912, and last traded at Rs 901.For today market is looking for the support at 892.5, a break below could see a test of 884 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 913, a move above could see prices testing 925.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 884-925.
• SELL NICKLE @ 912-916 SL 923.60 TGT 905-900-892-884. MCX
• SELL NICKEL BELOW 900 SL 912.50 TGT 892-885-880-873.50. MCX
MCXARUN
copper intraday
LME Copper trading range 340.80-374.70
09 July 2008 11:53:53
Yesterday the LME copper was 100mt against the previous of -500mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 351.55 a kg after opening at Rs 367, and last traded at Rs353.05.For today market is looking for the support at 346.9, a break below could see a test of 340.75 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 363.85, a move above could see prices testing 374.65.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-374.70.
• BUY COPPER @ 351-353 Sl 349.60 TGT 354.60-356.20-358. MCX
• SELL COPPER @ 358-360 SL 362.50 TGT 356.20-353.70-350.50. MCX
• ONCE MKT IS ABV 354 LVL THAN CAN SHOW 358 LVL.
• IMP SUPPORT IS 132$ MCX. 5820-5680 SUP
MCXARUN
09 July 2008 11:53:53
Yesterday the LME copper was 100mt against the previous of -500mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 351.55 a kg after opening at Rs 367, and last traded at Rs353.05.For today market is looking for the support at 346.9, a break below could see a test of 340.75 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 363.85, a move above could see prices testing 374.65.
Trading Ideas
• TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-374.70.
• BUY COPPER @ 351-353 Sl 349.60 TGT 354.60-356.20-358. MCX
• SELL COPPER @ 358-360 SL 362.50 TGT 356.20-353.70-350.50. MCX
• ONCE MKT IS ABV 354 LVL THAN CAN SHOW 358 LVL.
• IMP SUPPORT IS 132$ MCX. 5820-5680 SUP
MCXARUN
safe trade calls
GOLD
for the day sell only below 12760-750 S/L 12785 and T/p 12700/upto 12600 OR sell ard 13085-95 S/L 13100 and T/p 13025-13000/upto 12925 (any time close above 13100/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 24975 S/L 25050 and T/p 24880/775-725/24600 OR buy only abv 25425 S/L 25350 and T/p 25525-600/towards 25775-825/uprally(any time close below 24340/23525/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26150/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. for the day sell below 5840 S/L 5865 and T/p 5400-5770/ towards 5710/ 5635 OR sell ard 6062-70 S/L 6075 and T/p 6015-5975 upto 5930, only abv 6180/6220 & 6300 uprally again (now crude need to close above 6220/6300 for bullish rally while close below 5845/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 366.5/364, for the day sell below 351 S/L 352.7 and T/p 349-347/towards 343 OR sell ard 361.8-362.5 S/L 363 and T/p 360-358/ upto 356 (upside strong rally only on close above 371/387.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
for the day sell only below 12760-750 S/L 12785 and T/p 12700/upto 12600 OR sell ard 13085-95 S/L 13100 and T/p 13025-13000/upto 12925 (any time close above 13100/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12750/12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 24975 S/L 25050 and T/p 24880/775-725/24600 OR buy only abv 25425 S/L 25350 and T/p 25525-600/towards 25775-825/uprally(any time close below 24340/23525/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26150/26900/28000 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. for the day sell below 5840 S/L 5865 and T/p 5400-5770/ towards 5710/ 5635 OR sell ard 6062-70 S/L 6075 and T/p 6015-5975 upto 5930, only abv 6180/6220 & 6300 uprally again (now crude need to close above 6220/6300 for bullish rally while close below 5845/5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 366.5/364, for the day sell below 351 S/L 352.7 and T/p 349-347/towards 343 OR sell ard 361.8-362.5 S/L 363 and T/p 360-358/ upto 356 (upside strong rally only on close above 371/387.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
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