silver intraday

Sell MCX Silver below 24380
02 July 2008 10:49:23



Silver opened in New York at its low of 1773/1777. The metal soared on the back of weaker equity markets and a faltering dollar. In addition, higher base metal prices pushed silver to its high of 1817/1821 where it closed for the day.

Now support for the silver is seen at 24969 and below could see a test of 24195. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26164, a move above could see prices testing 26585.

•TRADING RANGE IS 24195-26585.
•BUY SILVER SEPT ABV 25820 SL 25680 TGT 25880-940-990-26050. MCX
•SELL SILVER BELOW 24380 SL 24570 TGT 24270-24180-24080. MCX
•BELOW 24000 IMP SUPPORT IS AT 23650-480. MCX

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx gold intraday

Gold resistance likely at 13350
02 July 2008 10:47:14

Gold opened at 930.25/931.25 in New York. Prices responded strongly to record-breaking oil, and rallied most of the morning. The metal reached resistance around 944.00 where it range-traded for a while. However, a weakening dollar dragged gold marginally higher, peaking at 946.00/947.00 before falling slightly. Gold closed at 942.50/943.50. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12949 and below could see a test of 12692. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13350, a move above could see prices testing 13494.

• SELL GOLD BELOW 13180 SL 13236 TGT 13157-13116-13060. MCX
• SELL BELOW 13000 TGT 12940-12860. MCX
• TRADING RANGE IS 12692-13494.

MCXARUN
9994500540

Gold moves up with rising oil values

New York gold prices were off to the (oil-led) races on this, the first day of July, with a near 2% gain, quoted at $942 per ounce amid rising oil values ($142.00 up $2.00) and a declining dollar (down .17 to 72.28 on the index).

Stock futures pointed to a weak opening today, and they indeed followed through on the signal, with the Dow dropping 126 points, as analysts pondered whether last Friday was a bottom, or the beginning of a hairy bear market. Auto sales came in quite weak, denting the Dow further, with Ford's sales slipping 28% and Toyota's (!) dropping over 21% as US buyers stayed away from dealer lots, hoping that, somehow, they can also stay away from the corner gas pump. SUVs anyone? Road trips this summer?

Gas stations in parts of the US are reportedly taking credit cards up-front and requiring all kinds of ID in order to prevent some from driving off with a $100 tankful of gas. Locking gas caps are making Pep Boys a fortune suddenly.

Silver added a more robust 4.3%, rising 76 cents to $18.16 while platinum gained $13 to $2064 and palladium rose $5to $465 per ounce. Also helping gold in this session, were reports that the ECB completed sales of 30 tonnes of bullion as of yesterday, and that it does not intend to sell any more ahead of September's conclusion of the current sales year window.

The ECB's imminent rate hike decision was playing into the euro's hand today, as the currency rose to 1.58 against the greenback.

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Another workforce reduction news from the US economy as Starbucks says that it will close 600 U.S. coffee shops and eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs. The reductions amount to 7 percent of its workforce worldwide. The cuts include full- and part-time employees and will come over the next nine months. Such news only gives further evidence of the embedded slowdown in US economy. The recovery will not be at the same pace as may of us expect. However the US dollar will not get the same thrashing as we had in the first quarter.

Eurozone, UK and other nations are getting affected due to the continued rise in prices of essentials. Central banks in these regions may raise interest rates in the short term to control inflation but will reverse the same as higher interest rates affects consumption and growth. In the medium term the US dollar is headed for a showdown against the major currencies. The prime reason being shift in central bank focus and their preference on growth versus inflation. The US dollar will emerge a winner in the long term (8-12 months) while in the short term (2-3 months) the US dollar may loose.

Geopolitical uncertainties have resurfaced with fears that Israel may attack Iran’s nuclear installations before US president George Bush leaves his office in January. Crude oil and gold are rising over these uncertainties. The current situation is similar to 2006. In 2006 gold rose to $732 and fell to $546. Thereafter in July, 2006 we had the Iran-Hezbollah tension and gold once again rose to $692 only to fall to $560. If history will repeat itself remains to be seen. The difference between 2006 and 2008 is that of slowdown in global growth and energy prices.

PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0

As long as $2038 holds, platinum will target $2200+. In the short term.

MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)

Carbon Credit target 1508 was nearly achieved. For the day as long as 1488-1492 holds it will target 1534 and 1552.

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

we book profit on buy abv 12375/12640/ 12900, for the day buy only abv 13000-13025 S/L 12975 and T/p 13100-150/ close abv 13050 towards 13300 in coming days OR buy ard 12630-35 S/L 12620 and T/p 12690-12730 (any time close above 12900-13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12150/11920/ 11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

for the day buy only abv 24975 S/L 24890 and T/p 25100-150/sustain abv towards 25500 in coming days OR buy ard 24300-310 S/L 24275 and T/p 12440/24550 (any time close below 24275/23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 25150/25675/26900/ 28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

as long support of 5975 & 5900 uptrend likely to continue. book profit on buy above 5945/6120, for the day buy abv 6150-6175 S/L 6130 and T/p 6200-6250 OR buy ard 5932-40 S/L 5925 and T/p 5975-90/upto 6035, fall below 5900 sharp correction expected (now crude need to close above 6175 for bullish rally while close below 5900/5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


for the day buy only abv 369.5 S/L 368 and T/p 371-72/375 OR buy ard 358.5-359 S/L 358 and T/p 361 upto 365 (upside strong rally only on close above 369.5/383.5/398 while close below 351.5/339/331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

Market action in Gold, Oil continues

New York gold's last trading session of the month and the quarter ended with a small loss in the August contract and spot prices were quoted near $926 at last check after a rally that stopped short of $940 following small gains in the US dollar (up to near 72.50 on the index) and an evaporation of most of the early gains that crude oil exhibited in early going.

After climbing to new peaks above $143 black gold eased back to $140.75 retaining only a half dollar advance on the day. US military officials downplayed the potential for Iran to do anything significant in the Straits of Hormuz as far as oil flows are concerned, even if a pre-emptive US or Israeli strike befalls on its nuclear installations.

Stocks were fairly quiet, gaining less than 50 points on the day. Thus far, the month and quarter-end book squaring activity expected for the day has yielded less little in terms of volumes and volatility. Silver lost 6 cents to trade at $17.42 while platinum was still ahead $12 at $2054 (primarily on Lonmin's smelter repairs shutdown) but palladium lost $5 a5 $461 per ounce. The gold ETF made a rather lukewarm debut in Tokyo and will -for the time being- still remain a US institutional and geographic concentration phenomenon.

Dollar policy, interest rate trends, and energy markets unfolding remain at the epicenter of the mid-year markets' pivot points (as they have indeed pretty much dominated the headlines of the first half of 2008) and uncertainty is still part of the financial and market fabric as we head for the second half. The trio may range-trade for a short while yet, but course changes are very likely in the making as we cover the current action.

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Traders will be gearing for super Thursday. We have the European central bank meeting and US June non farm payrolls. They will be taking their positions accordingly. Thursdays close can set the trend for rest of July for all metals, energies and the US dollar. As crude oil prices rise we continue to hear voices all over. The US treasury secretary says that they believe in a stronger US dollar. I wonder whether its the same rhetoric as his predecessor John Snow. Whenever John Snow had his comments on reaffirming a stronger US dollar, the dollar index would start to fall in the past. Chinese premiere Wen Jiabao urged the United States to stabilize the dollar. These comments will continue till crude oil prices rise.

Commodities including all metals and energies are rising due to lack of alternate investments in developed markets. Global hedge funds including US state run pension funds are heavily invested in commodities. Global inventories are being manipulated. Fund managers are buying metals like copper, gold, silver and platinum and storing them in private warehouses. When most of the fund managers do the same then global inventories start to fall and these metals rise. This is happening. For commodity prices to fall two conditions must be met. (A) There has to new alternate sources of investments or equity markets rise (B) Global economic uncertainty must fade. Till then commodity prices will remain firm.

SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE

Silver targets $1930 and $2132 in July as long as $1585-$1600 zone holds on daily closing basis.

MCXARUN
9994500540