Crude Oil : Extends gains tracking NYMEX
30 June 2008 10:27:14
Oil prices recorded a fresh high on Friday, as comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output worsened the supply worries.
Crude oil August in NYMEX settled at $140.54 on Friday, after touching an all-time high of $142.99 a barrel.
Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer.
Libya's most senior oil official Shokri Ghanem said that he was studying the possibility of reducing production in response to a bill before the US Congress that would empower the Justice Department to sue members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for limiting oil supplies.
On Wednesday, the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration had reported the first weekly rise in US crude supply in six weeks. According to the EIA, US crude supplies climbed by 800,000 barrels to 301.8 million for the week ended June 20.
Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
In a widely expected move, the Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 2 % and warned that upside risks to inflation have increased.
At a meeting of oil producers and consumers on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it would raise its daily production by 200,000 barrels in July, in addition to the increase of 300,000 barrels a day which had been announced in May. This would make the total production from the country 9.7 million barrels a day.
But frequent militant attacks on Nigerian oil facilities continue to pose threats to supply from the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report had cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season had forced the closure of two export terminals in Mexico early this month, before weakening to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)
Continuation of uptrend expected above $140. Resistances $144.40, $149.70, $154.80; supports $138.00, $132.00, $127.60.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.15 - $142.91 and closed at $140.21 ($139.64).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 140.85; bearish below 140.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, June 30, 2008
comex gold outlook
Gold : Weak Dollar, firm Oil bring in investment demand
30 June 2008 10:23:24
Gold extended gains on Friday, as investment demand of the yellow metal increased with the dollar remaining weak and oil prices surging to a new all-time high near $143 a barrel.
International spot gold traded as high as $930.40 and last quoted at $927.14 ($916.25). On weekly basis spot gold gained $26.30, approximately 3%.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Dollar extended the decline since the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2 %, as economic fears persisted amid mixed data from various sectors and upside risks to inflation.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, the lowest level since 1980, from a reading of 59.6 in May.
Initial claims for US state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 384,000 in the week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the four-week average of those claims rose to 378,250.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said Thursday that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Oil prices rose to near $143 a barrel yesterday for the first time ever, boosted by comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output. Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Continuation of uptrend is expected above $932. Supports are $922, $913; resistances $945, $954.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $912.60 – $932.70 and closed at $928.70 ($919.50).
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 June 2008 10:23:24
Gold extended gains on Friday, as investment demand of the yellow metal increased with the dollar remaining weak and oil prices surging to a new all-time high near $143 a barrel.
International spot gold traded as high as $930.40 and last quoted at $927.14 ($916.25). On weekly basis spot gold gained $26.30, approximately 3%.
Official data that showed a 10.1 percent decrease in South Africa’s gold production in April 2008, compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, supported the bullion.
Dollar extended the decline since the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2 %, as economic fears persisted amid mixed data from various sectors and upside risks to inflation.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, the lowest level since 1980, from a reading of 59.6 in May.
Initial claims for US state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 384,000 in the week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the four-week average of those claims rose to 378,250.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums edged up by 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May.
But the sale of new US single-family homes tumbled 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with a year earlier, the new-home sales were down 40.3%.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said Thursday that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.
The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.
The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.
Oil prices rose to near $143 a barrel yesterday for the first time ever, boosted by comments from the OPEC President and a threat from Libya to cut its crude output. Short-term supply concerns due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria underpin the prices of oil.
Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)
Continuation of uptrend is expected above $932. Supports are $922, $913; resistances $945, $954.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $912.60 – $932.70 and closed at $928.70 ($919.50).
DGCX Gold August
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 928; bearish below $ 923
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, June 27, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Back to square one for metals and energies and for the US dollar. 2008 started with the search for alternate investments away from equities and finally we are catching up with the same. April till end June was a bit of a consolidation period for gold, silver and energies which seems to be seems to be over. Metals and energies gained on US dollar losses and the slump in global stock markets. Volatility will be on the higher side and managing volatility will be the key.
Crude oil prices rose to a new high of $140.39 after Libya said that it may put curbs on crude oil output. OPEC's president, Chakib Khelil, said a European interest-rate rise may send oil surging to $150-$170. US companies continued their downsizing of the work force. Brunswick Corp. plans to close four more North American plants and may fire as much as 10 percent of its workforce to slash costs after U.S. powerboat sales fell to the lowest in more than 40 years. Bank of America will cut about 7,500 jobs after buying Countrywide Financial Corp. The Fed will not be able to raise interest rates aggressively till US companies reduce their work force. Preference over growth to inflation will result in a short term steady decline the in the US dollar.
The US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve meeting on expectations that the European central bank and other central banks will raise interest rates faster than it. In the upcoming week the US dollar will trade with a softer bias unless there are comments from central bank officials. Interest rate differentials have caused the US dollar’s fall. The US dollar will gain if and only if either interest rate differential or growth differentials narrow. Crude oil prices will once again be the key factor for global financial markets
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Platinum targets $2160 and $2360 by next week as long as $2032 and $2009 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit has to hold 1425 to be in bullish zone. Resistance at 1459 and 1486.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude oil prices rose to a new high of $140.39 after Libya said that it may put curbs on crude oil output. OPEC's president, Chakib Khelil, said a European interest-rate rise may send oil surging to $150-$170. US companies continued their downsizing of the work force. Brunswick Corp. plans to close four more North American plants and may fire as much as 10 percent of its workforce to slash costs after U.S. powerboat sales fell to the lowest in more than 40 years. Bank of America will cut about 7,500 jobs after buying Countrywide Financial Corp. The Fed will not be able to raise interest rates aggressively till US companies reduce their work force. Preference over growth to inflation will result in a short term steady decline the in the US dollar.
The US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve meeting on expectations that the European central bank and other central banks will raise interest rates faster than it. In the upcoming week the US dollar will trade with a softer bias unless there are comments from central bank officials. Interest rate differentials have caused the US dollar’s fall. The US dollar will gain if and only if either interest rate differential or growth differentials narrow. Crude oil prices will once again be the key factor for global financial markets
PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0
Platinum targets $2160 and $2360 by next week as long as $2032 and $2009 holds
MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)
Carbon Credit has to hold 1425 to be in bullish zone. Resistance at 1459 and 1486.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, June 26, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
we book profit on sell below 12250, for the day sell below 12190 & 12150 S/L 12220 and T/p 12075-50/towards 11975 OR buy abv 12375 S/L 12350 and T/p 12400-430/upto 12500 (any time close above 12630/12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 23475, for the day sell below 23300-23275 S/L 23380 and T/p 23125/23000/22875/ down rally OR buy only abv 23725 S/L 23660 and T/p 23800/900-950/towards 24150 (any time close below 23275/ 23000-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24925/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5635. we book profit on sell below 5800, for the day sell below 5665 S/L 5685 and T/p 5630-40/close below 5630 test 5500 atleast/towards 5450 in coming days OR sell ard 5850-55 S/L 5860 and T/p 5815-5785, only sustain abv 5890/5950 & 6000 bullish rally again (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 356-355.5, for the day sell only below 352.5-352 S/L 353.5 and T/p 349.5/346.5/upto 344 OR buy abv 360.5-361.5 S/L 359 and T/p 363/365/368-70/towards 375 (upside strong rally only on close above 364.5 while close below 342-339/330-326.5/ 310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
we book profit on sell below 12250, for the day sell below 12190 & 12150 S/L 12220 and T/p 12075-50/towards 11975 OR buy abv 12375 S/L 12350 and T/p 12400-430/upto 12500 (any time close above 12630/12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
we book profit on sell below 23475, for the day sell below 23300-23275 S/L 23380 and T/p 23125/23000/22875/ down rally OR buy only abv 23725 S/L 23660 and T/p 23800/900-950/towards 24150 (any time close below 23275/ 23000-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24925/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5635. we book profit on sell below 5800, for the day sell below 5665 S/L 5685 and T/p 5630-40/close below 5630 test 5500 atleast/towards 5450 in coming days OR sell ard 5850-55 S/L 5860 and T/p 5815-5785, only sustain abv 5890/5950 & 6000 bullish rally again (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on sell below 356-355.5, for the day sell only below 352.5-352 S/L 353.5 and T/p 349.5/346.5/upto 344 OR buy abv 360.5-361.5 S/L 359 and T/p 363/365/368-70/towards 375 (upside strong rally only on close above 364.5 while close below 342-339/330-326.5/ 310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view calls
CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO TEST $ 127.5 - 28 TOWARDS $ 123.5 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 131.3, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 138.75 & $ 140.5 TEST 144-45 ATLEAST TOWARDS $ 148 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 71 - 70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 75.4, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 89.5 & 100.5 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 86.5/91.5 & 94 UPTREND AGAIN
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 127.5 - 28 TOWARDS $ 123.5 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 131.3, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 138.75 & $ 140.5 TEST 144-45 ATLEAST TOWARDS $ 148 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 71 - 70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 75.4, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 89.5 & 100.5 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 86.5/91.5 & 94 UPTREND AGAIN
MCXARUN
9994500540
lead intraday
Lead registered weekly low
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
lead intraday
Lead registered weekly low
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
26 June 2008 10:03:09
MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00
Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
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