bullion intraday

Gold fell in New York by the most in almost two weeks as the dollar strengthened against the euro, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also fell

Spot gold tumbled through $900 a troy ounce, which sparked a wave of technical selling Monday that carried the metal down to $876/oz and its falls, which were attributed to large liquidations by CTA accounts in commodities, in particular gold. This liquidation is perhaps related to quarter-end pressures in order to raise cash for client redemption payments.


Gold tends to move in the opposite direction to the dollar as it seen as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency and a hedge against rising inflation. Oil prices have also eased as the dollar has firmed, reducing gold's role as a hedge against rising fuel costs.


The U.S dollar is gaining against the euro as it is still unclear if the Feds will hike or steady rates and on speculation that consumer confidence released today will show a drop, consequently that will negatively affect consumer's confidence. Therefore, at the moment, as the green currency remains weak, investors are still guided straight to the shiny metal.


Australian gold production has fallen by a greater-than-expected 7 percent in the last year its world's third-largest producer of gold behind China and South Africa. Its output is estimated at 231 tones in the year to June 30, against 249 tones the year before.


Platinum assets in Zuercher Kantonal bank's exchange-traded fund climbed 18 percent to a record last week. The 62,353.15 ounces in the ZKB Platinum ETF as of June 20 exceeded the record 54,498.72 ounces of Dec. 29, according to figures e-mailed today from Zurich-based ZKB. Platinum has trailed the company's silver, gold and palladium funds that climbed to all-time highs last month. The platinum assets were up 18 percent from 52,762.58 ounces a week earlier.

U.S.Economy:

The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity improved from -1.23 to -.96 in May, still a sign of contraction. 63 of the 85 indicators used were said to have recorded negative changes.

The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. Traders will be watching for Wednesday afternoon's statement for any clues to future direction.

Currencies update:

The IFO Institute's index of business confidence in Germany fell from 103.5 to 101.3 in June, weaker than expected.

European data yesterday showed that the economic slowdown is accelerating just as the European Central Bank is planning to raise interest rates, leading some traders to bet the ECB will be forced to hold rates steady, pushing the euro lower.


MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:


The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12189 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12098 and 11978 If market holds above 12386 further rally can be seen towards 12457 and 12594

Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12372 Target 12310 and 12230 Stoploss at 12415

MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23515 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23831 and 23600 If market holds above 23898 further rally can be seen towards 24002 and 24190

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23965 Target 23820 and 23700 stoploss at 24130

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Lay offs continue in the US with United airways and Citi group announcing. UAL has announced that it will lay off 950 pilots. The layoffs are more in crude oil dependent industries and financials. Crude oil prices are directionless. It may take a few months for demand in emerging markets to fall. At the moment currency traders will be caught between eurozone and US economic growth. Cable will be switched between the US dollar and euro. Markets will be judging the level of hawkishness of Bernanke tomorrow.

Australia’s gold production is expected to fall 7.8% to 231 tonnes in the year to June 30 according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Economic Resources. Australia is the world’s third largest gold producer and although a rebound in output to 256 tonnes is expected in 2008/09, long term (3-5 years) gold supplies will be in deficit. The Central bank Gold Sales agreement (CBGA) will be over by 2010-2011. With no fear of central bank sales gold will have an unending one way rise after CBGA gets over.

PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0

In the short term platinum can fall to $1980 and thereafter target $2100 and $2192 as long as $2038 and $2019 holds

MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)

Carbon Credits targets 1454 and 1502 this week as long as 1395 holds.

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MCX Crude Oil drops on Saudi Arabia's plan to increase production

Oil prices dropped Thursday after China said it will raise fuel prices, a move that could dampen the booming Asian nation's oil consumption. Retail gas prices slid overnight. Growing Chinese demand for oil has underpinned the multiyear rally in oil prices. But higher prices could crimp that demand. Concerns about spiking Chinese demand for diesel due to cleanup operations in the aftermath of last month's earthquake contributed to oil's run-up in recent weeks

Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude production by 200,000 barrels a day, according to a statement from the kingdom's embassy in London. The statement didn't specify the timing of the increase. Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi pledged on May 16 to boost output by 300,000 barrels a day in June. Saudi Arabia has since indicated it plans to announce a further addition at this week's meeting in Jeddah, according to an official at the OPEC


Also in news Venezuela will not be attending the scheduled meeting on this week as Saudi Arabia will take measures of increasing output as they take in every consideration in order to lower prices that have been affecting many nations while Venezuela believes there is no need for more output.

The Chinese government announced that they are increasing their subsidized gasoline prices (by roughly 16%) and diesel prices (by roughly 40%). The move is expected to reduce demand in China and help ease the world's tight supplies of crude oil, and the Nigerian militants attacked and closed a 200,000 barrel per day offshore oil facility owned by Royal Dutch Shell.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2008 price forecast for crude to $117 a barrel, from the previous view of $108 a barrel. The bank now expects 2009 oil prices to reach $140 a barrel next year, up from $110 a barrel.

Natural gas in New York declined after a U.S. government report showed that supplies gained within analysts expectations and crude oil fell

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 57 billion cubic feet last week to 1.943 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 16% from a year ago and down 3% from the five-year average.

MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals are neutral to sideways signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5660 level. if broken can see further fall to 5537 and 5390 If market holds above 5781 further rally can be seen towards 5878 and 6025

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Buy at 5610 Target 5705 and 5790 Stoploss 5565


MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 570 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 587 and 599 If market sustains below 558 can see a further fall towards 541 and 529

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Buy at 548 Target 555 and 562 Stop loss at 544

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MCX Gold trades towards a weekly highs

Gold rose to a one-week high on speculation that surging costs of raw materials will boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.

Gold has had a correlation of 0.70 against the euro-dollar exchange rate this year, compared with 0.58 last year, Bloomberg data show. A figure of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep. The dollar slid to a one-week low versus the euro on speculation a report today will show a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, encouraging the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.

Spot gold traded sideways to upside, struggling to find a direction amid uncertainty over the dollar's short-term prospects, The dollar weakened as weak quarterly performances from Wall Street banks have refocused the market's attention on the impact of the credit crisis on the U.S. economy.

South Africa, the biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell 2 percent in April. Gold production dropped 10.1 percent from a year earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, Non-gold output fell 0.7 percent.

Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $551.5 billion last week, The value of reserves increased by $2.4 billion in the week
ended June 13, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, the reserves gained $500 million in the previous week.

India's largest commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange, will launch platinum futures on Today; MCX will launch September and December contracts with Mumbai as the delivery center.

Gold imports by India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, fell 52% in May to 32.9 metric tons; the country imported around 107.9 tons of gold during the first five months of the year compared with 300 tons a year ago. As for silver, the country imported around 24 tons duty-free in May, the first time since December.

U.S.Economy:

The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in May, a little better than expected.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 in June, weaker than expected.

The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 5,000 last week to 381,000, a little more than expected.

Currencies update:

Inflation appears to be rising everywhere. Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.0% in May and up 2.2% from a year ago, more than expected. The core index of prices was up 1.5% in May from a year ago. Also, wholesale sales were up 1.4% in April. The September Canadian dollar is steady to higher.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were up 3.5% in May, much stronger than expected and the biggest jump in 20 years.


MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:


The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12649 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12769 and 12927 If market sustains below 12491 can see a further fall towards 12371 and 12213


Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12435 Target 12570 and 12740 Stoploss at 12385

MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24790 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25078 and 25347 If market sustains below 24390 can see a further fall towards 24171 and 23802

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24240 Target 24480 and 24790 stoploss at 24080


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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Crude oil has fallen after china raised energy prices. China raised petrol and diesel by 18 per cent and electricity tariffs rose by just less than 5 per cent. Technically if crude oil does not break $141 in the rest of the month then a fall to $120 and $110.60 is on the cards. Base metals will be volatile after the Peru government clinched a deal with mining workers. However workers are yet to return to work. Trading strategy in base metals is to buy only on a break of key technical resistances. Nickel continues to disappoint and looks set to fall below 2008 lows.

Next week is Fed week. Till then there is no major market moving economic news. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and thereafter the US dollar will be the key to commodity prices. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the hurricane season in July. July to September, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will be the key for crude oil prices. In 2007 crude oil prices fell as there no major hurricanes.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0

$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60

A fall below $130.64 will result in $125.60 and $121.60. Resistance at $135.10 and $138.60

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safe trade calls

GOLD


for the day buy only abv 12440-50 S/L 12415 and T/p 12500-550/towards 12600, close abv 12630 seen new rally OR sell only below 12270-250 S/L 12290 and T/p 12200-150/12050/close below test 12850-900 atleast/ towards 12700 in coming days (any time close above 12440/12630/12875/13050/ 13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

for the day buy only abv 24600-630 S/L 24510 and T/p 24775-800/sustain abv 24800 seen new rally OR sell below 24150 S/L 24210 and T/p 24025/23940/ 23870/23775/down rally(any time close below 23275/23000-22875/22300/21575 -500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24800/25500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


continue to view, as long resistance of 5925 & 6000 down rally expected. for the day sell ard 5915-20 S/L 5925 and T/p 5875-50/5810 OR sell below 5775 S/L 5800 and T/p 5740-5700/5665/5630-40/close below test 5490-5500 atleast and towards 5450 in coming days, (anytime close abv 6000 test 6125 atleast/upto 6200) (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


we book profit on buy abv 338.5/342/ 348.5-349.5, for the day buy only abv 355 S/L 353.5 and T/p 357-357.5/ towards 361/close abv 361.5 test 370 atleast/towards 375 in coming days OR buy ard 347-347.2 S/L 346.5 and T/p 349-350/352 (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 339/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)


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MCX Lead bounces from recent lows

19 June 2008 09:50:32

MCX Lead trades higher and volatile following LME, closed near 80.60 after registering days high near 83.45, market was supportive due to heavy short covering in international markets. Intra day low registered at 80.05

There's only limited scope for a further downward correction in LME lead, the expected market surplus for '08 has already been adequately priced-in, which means the market can shrug off stock rises.

LME stocks are at their highest level since August '06. LME lead trades at $1,940 a metric ton, +8% from Tuesday's low.

Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1900 MT to 96775 MT.


MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 82.7 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 84.8 and 86.1, If market sustains below 81.4 can see a further fall towards 79.3 and 78.0

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Buy at 80.00 Target 81.50 and 82.30 SL 79.20

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