energy intraday

Energy
10 June 2008 10:50:38


Major Headlines:


Crude oil fell from a record in New York after Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the surge in prices was ``unjustified.’ The gain in prices is being driven by non-fundamental factors, the state-owned Saudi Press Agency reported after a meeting between Al-Naimi and his Pakistani counterpart yesterday

Retail gas prices rose further above a national average of $4 Monday, as distributors and retailers hiked prices in response to Friday's unprecedented rally in the oil futures market. Oil futures, meanwhile, retreated as investors sold to lock in profits from the run-up, though oil prices may be headed even higher.

Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, said it plans to cut the number of tankers idling in the Persian Gulf and clear a backlog of crude stored on them by the middle of the summer. The nation still has 14 tankers, capable of storing as much as 28 million barrels of oil, near the Kharg Island loading facility, according to AISLive data on Bloomberg

OPEC's total production rose 0.9 percent in May to 32.28 million barrels a day as Saudi Arabia and Iraq boosted supply, according to Bloomberg estimates. The production ceiling for its 12 members with quotas is 29.673 million barrels a day. War-torn Iraq is allowed to produce at will. Speculators and political tensions could push prices to $140 a barrel this month and $150 a barrel before the end of the summer, Shokri Ghanem, Libya's top oil official, said in an interview today from Tripoli.

Saudi Arabia said on Monday it will "soon" call for a meeting between oil producing and consuming nations to discuss what it called the unjustified rise in oil prices. Oil jumped over $10 on Friday, partly on dollar weakness and rising tension between Israel and Iran. the world's fourth-largest exporter, adding that it asked Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi to call the meeting to discuss addressing the rise.


The negative oil-dollar correlation of -0.41 wasn't the only record set last week. Oil rose $10.75, or 8.4 percent, to $138.54 a barrel in New York on June 6, the biggest-ever gain in dollar terms. The gain alone almost equaled the lowest price for a barrel of crude the past decade, set Dec. 10, 1998


MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5913levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 5962 and 6055 If market sustains below 5770 can see a further fall towards 5720 and 5645

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5770 Target 5845 and 5920 Stoploss 5720

MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 547 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 553 and 557 If market sustains below 542 can see a further fall towards 537 and 532

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 534 Target 541 and 548 Stop loss at 529

MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion
10 June 2008 10:43:07


Major Headlines:

Gold and silver declined after crude oil rebound from the record high and stronger than excepted US housing data given some support to dollar, Euro slips against dollar.

Platinum futures fell on speculation that mines in South Africa, the world's biggest producer of the metal, may have enough electricity throughout the winter to provide stable supplies of the metal. Palladium climbed.

Gold rose yesterday in earlier session as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, enhancing the appeal of the precious metal as an investment haven. Silver dropped. Israel may attack Iran if the country doesn't abandon its nuclear-development program, Shaul Mofaz, Israel's transportation minister and a contender for the post of prime minister, told the Yediot Ahronot daily last week. Some investors buy gold during times of political unrest to hedge against turmoil in financial markets

OAO Polyus Gold, Russia's biggest producer of the metal, said full-year profit fell 96 percent after a gain in the prior year from the sale of 20 percent in Gold Fields Ltd., the second-largest African gold producer.Net income dropped to $41.1 million from $1.16 billion, Profit surged more than 10-fold in 2006 after the company gained $980 million from the sale of its Gold Fields stake.

Indian spot gold closed higher on Monday, tracking international bullion markets, but gains were limited due to lack of physical buying in the domestic market. The domestic market is very dull with hardly any demand for the yellow metal, as higher prices have kept buyers off the market; June to July is usually a slack period for the market with no wedding or festival seasons.

Meanwhile India's gold imports slumped over 59 percent year-on-year in May, as high prices dented demand for the yellow metal in the world's largest consuming nation. The country imported around 28 tones to 32 tones of the yellow metal compared with 69 tones a year earlier
Abu Dhabi's gold jewellery sales rose 10 per cent in volume and 20 per cent in value in April compared with the year-ago period, fuelled by demand from foreign residents despite high prices. Sales of gold jewellery in the capital were steady in volume in the first quarter of 2008 compared with the same period a year earlier, but their value rose by 30 per cent on record high prices

U.S.Economy:

The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales were up 6.3% in April, stronger than expected and the highest level since October of 2007.

Lehman Brothers said that they lost an estimated $2.8 billion in the quarter that ended on May 31st, much more than expected. They also said that they are raising $6 billion in an offering of common and preferred stock to help shore up the company.

Currencies update:


The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation said that new housing starts were at an annual rate of 221,300 units in May, up 3.5% on the month and better than expected. For the first five months of 2008, Canada's housing starts are up .7% from a year ago.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that producer prices were up 1.6% in May and up 8.9% from a year ago, much more than expected.

Japan's Cabinet Office said that its new index of leading indicators was up 2.0 to 92.8 in April. The September yen is trading lower


MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:


The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12547 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12593 and 12629 If market sustains below 12360 can see a further fall towards 12305 and 12239

Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12495 Target 12380 and 12290 Stoploss at 12548



MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24512 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25812 and 25093 If market sustains below 23905. Can see a further fall towards 23731 and 23577

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24380 Target 24120 and 23900 stoploss at 2520


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The US dollar made a complete U turn after the Fed chairman once again expressed his concerns of a weaker US dollar causing inflation. US Treasury Secretary Paulson confirmed that the US government is not ruling out any policy tool including intervention. The last time the Federal Reserve intervened in the currency markets was shortly after the launch of the Euro. At that time, the currency fell to a low of 84 cents, triggering panic for the European Central Bank (ECB). In the first ten days of June the Fed and European central banks, the two major central banks shifting their focus to inflation, has resulted in a fight between US dollar bulls and US dollar bears. The Fed has surprised the markets more than the ECB. This has resulted in US dollar short positions getting covered and fresh long positions being created.

Metals will be volatile. Intervention is a strong word used sparingly by central banks. Unlike the ECB and bank of Japan where it has been all words and no action in the past. The Federal Reserve should mean business. Till the Fed meeting on 24-25th June, comments from various central banks will not let traders sleep.

SILVER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1713.0

If silver fails to break $1860 in June then it will fall to $1606 and $1550 in the short term. Comex silver July futures are expiring this month.

MCXARUN
9994500540

safetrade calls

GOLD

OUR WORDS "close abv 12340 test 12425-12500 atleast" ACHIEVED SAME DAY book profit on buy abv 12250/12340, for the day buy only abv 12575 S/L 12550 and T/p 12600/675 towards 12750 OR buy ard 12310-15 S/L 12300 and T/p 12390-440/12480 (any time close above 12575-600/ 12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12000/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

OUR WORDS " SUSTAIN ABV 24250 TOWARDS 24400 ACHIEVED" book profit on buy abv 23650/24050, for the day buy only abv 24750 S/L 24650 and T/p 24850/24975 towards 25150 OR buy ard 24300-310 S/L 24275 and T/p 24400 -500/24600 (any time close below 23100-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24750/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE


for the day buy only abv 5960 S/L 5930 and T/p 6000-6050 OR buy ard 5820-25 S/L 5810 and T/p 5855-60 upto 5900 (now crude need to close above 5960 for bullish rally while close below 5400/ 5210/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


book profit on buy abv 338.5, for the day buy only abv 345 S/L 343.5 and T/p 347 -347.5/350.5/352.5/abv uprally OR buy ard 338-338.25 S/L 337.5 and T/p 341-343 (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Energy: Oil markets could weaken
09 June 2008 09:49:04

Oil Prices pushed record high on NYMEX at $138.74 a barrel after Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer said he expected strong demand in Asia that could drive prices to $150 by July 4. Shipments from the Middle East are mimicking patterns seen in the third quarter last year, when Morgan Stanley based its "oil price spike" predictions on Atlantic Basin draws.

Global demand, especially for gas and distillates in emerging markets, supported the record build in crude prices. However, the governments of a number of countries, such as India and Malaysia, have started lifting their government fuel subsidies, prompting gas prices to rise in those nations. Israel said an attack on Iranian nuclear sites is unavoidable, and according to Flynn, geopolitical tensions in the region also pushed the price of oil higher.

The dramatic reversal in what had been a weakening oil market began Thursday after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the bank could raise interest rates and the euro climbed against the dollar. When interest rates rise in Europe, or fall in the U.S., the dollar tends to weaken against the euro.

Many investors tend to buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar is falling. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies, and analysts believe the dollar's protracted decline has been a major reason why oil prices have nearly doubled in the past year.

The U.S. Dollar Index was last down 0.8% at 72.435, amid concerns over a potential rise in rates in Europe, and following the U.S. Labor Department said May nonfarm payrolls fell by 49,000 and the unemployment rate rose to a 4-year high of 5.5%. Crude got a lift after an Israeli official said an attack on Iranian nuclear sites looked unavoidable.

The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) leapt to an all-time high on heavy volume Friday, as a weak U.S. dollar, increasing tension in the Middle East and a bullish analyst call fueled buying interest.

Natural gas advanced near the highest in 29 months after crude oil surged and the Near-record high temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest will spur cooling demand, prompting increased electricity output to run air conditioners. Daytime highs in New York will be 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 Celsius) this weekend, before rising to 97 on June 9, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 6073 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 6237 and 6523 If market sustains below 5787 can see a further fall towards 5623 and 5337

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5895 Target 6070 and 6150 Stoploss 5843

MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 552 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 558 and 567 If market sustains below 543 can see a further fall towards 537 and 528

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 538 Target 547 and 558 Stop loss at 533.50


MCXARUN
9994500540

basemetals intraday

Base Metals: Metals gain as global stockpiles fall
09 June 2008 09:46:53



The U.S. Labor Department said that the unemployment rate shot up from 5.0% to 5.5% in May, the highest since October of 2004. Non-farm payrolls were down 49,000 in May, not as bas as expected.

Statistics Canada said that the unemployment rate remained at 6.1% in May with a net gain of 8,400 jobs, slightly less than expected. Over the past twelve months, there has been a net gain of 339,000 jobs.

The German government reported that industrial production was down .8% in April, weaker than expected.

Copper

Copper jumped the most in three weeks as the dollar weakened on a rise in U.S. unemployment, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of six major currencies including the euro and yen, fell as much as 1 percent today after the Labor Department said the U.S. jobless rate climbed
the most in more than two decades last month. Copper has gained 19 percent this year as the dollar fell to record lows, boosting demand for commodities priced in the currency.

The metal also gained today as global stockpiles fell, helping to quell demand concerns, Barclays Capital analysts wrote in a report today. Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange dropped 950 metric tons, or 0.8 percent, to 122,550 tons, marking a 1.9 percent decline this week. Supplies tallied by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 13 percent to 38,829 tons this week.

Peruvian mine workers postponed a potential national strike to June 30 to give Congress time to vote on legislation on better pay and benefits.

Chilean trucking companies ended a three-day nationwide strike that sparked shortages of food and cut copper production, after the government agreed to cut their tax payments on diesel.

Shanghai copper stockpiles fell for a second week, dropping by 13 percent, Inventories, based on a survey of five warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, declined by 5,725 metric tons to 38,829 tons this week, the exchange said.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 346.1 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 349.2 and 354.1, If market sustains below 341.2 can see a further fall towards 338.1 and 333.2.

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 342.50 Target 346 and 348 SL 340.10

Nickel
Nickel headed for its first weekly gain in six in London as power disruptions in Western Australia and declining stockpiles increased concern about adequate supply.

Nickel stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange have fallen 7.7 percent since the end of April. Apache Corp., operator of an Australian natural-gas plant, said it may take two months to partially restore production after a June 3 explosion at a pipeline. Nickel producer Minara Resources Ltd. has operated at reduced capacity since then.

Higher nickel prices will bolster earnings for companies including OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of the metal used in stainless steel.

Nickel slumped 21 percent last year as inventories monitored by the LME expanded sixfold. Inventory fell 0.2 percent to 47,490 tons, at LME .

Apache stopped supplying gas from Varanus Island off Australia's northwest coast after a rupture in a pipeline triggered a fire, shutting off about a third of the state's supplies.

Minara, Australia's second-largest nickel producer, secured alternative supplies for its Murrin Murrin mine from Woodside Petroleum Ltd., a company spokesman said. Last month, the company forecast production of 34,000 tons to 38,000 tons this year.

Oxiana resumed full production at its Golden Grove zinc mine in Western Australia after sourcing alternative power, the Melbourne-based company said today. It had been using standby diesel power since June 3.

MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 998 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1037 and 1067, If market sustains below 967 can see a further fall towards 928 and 898.

Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 955 Target 969 and 978 SL 948

Zinc
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices for the third time in eight days to match global rates.

The price of zinc was cut by 5,000 rupees, or 5 percent, to 92,700 rupees ($2,160) a metric ton; Lead prices were kept unchanged at 96,700 rupees a ton.

Shanghai copper stockpiles fell for a second week, dropping by 13 percent; SHFE Zinc stockpiles dropped 408 tons to 68,250 tons, based on a survey of seven warehouses in Shanghai.

MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 83.6 level. If broken can see further fall to 82.7 and 81.6, If market holds above 84.7 further rally can be seen towards 85.6 and 86.7.

Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 85.20 Target 83.8 and 82.5 SL 86.80

Lead
Hindustan Zinc Ltd., India's largest producer of the metal, lowered prices for the third time in eight days to match global rates. The price of zinc was cut by 5,000 rupees, or 5 percent, to 92,700 rupees ($2,160) a metric ton; Lead prices were kept unchanged at 96,700 rupees a ton.

Inventory at LME increased by 975MT on Friday.

MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 83.4 level. if broken can see further fall to 82.3 and 81.3 , If market holds above 84.4 further rally can be seen towards 85.5 and 86.5

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 85.20 Target 83.8 and 82.5 SL 86.80

Aluminium
Shanghai copper stockpiles fell for a second week, dropping by 13 percent, Stockpiles of aluminium slipped 1.1 percent, or 2,061 tons, to 187,720 tons, based on a survey of 11 warehouses in Shanghai.

United Co. Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer, plans to spend $300 million on building a shipping facility on the Gulf of Finland.

MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 127.2 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 128.3 and 130.3, If market sustains below 125.2 can see a further fall towards 124.1 and 122.1

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Buy at 125.5 Target 127 and 128 SL 124.60

MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion: Gold import by India comes down
09 June 2008 09:48:26



August gold closed up $23.50 at $899.00 and July silver closed up 26 cents at $17.43, both influenced by weaker dollar.

Gold and other precious metals futures rose sharply Friday, propelled by weakness in the U.S. dollar and the latest surge to record highs in crude oil prices, Yet another factor lending support to the precious complex was comments from Israel's deputy prime minister warning that the country would attack Iran if the latter pursues nuclear-weapons programs.

A U.S. Defense Department official said there's no change in status that would indicate Israel is preparing military action against Iran

Gold jumped the most in six months after the U.S. jobless rate had the biggest gain in more than two decades, spurring a drop in the dollar. Silver also rose. The unemployment rate increased to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent in April, marking the biggest increase since February 1986, the U.S. Labor Department said last Friday

Gold Fields Ltd. workers at Africa's second-biggest gold producer's Beatrix mine have been on strike over ``internal grievances'' for more than 24 hours on last week , leaving 100 miners trapped underground, a labor union said.

Gold imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of bullion, slumped 64 percent in May from a year earlier as high prices cooled demand from jewelers and investors. Purchases totaled 25 metric tons, compared with 69 tons a year ago, India imported 722 tons of bullion in 2007, less than the 1,000 tons estimated by the World Gold Council at the beginning of the year.

U.S.Economy:

The U.S. Labor Department said that the unemployment rate shot up from 5.0% to 5.5% in May, the highest since October of 2004. Non-farm payrolls were down 49,000 in May, not as bas as expected. The September U.S. T-bonds closed higher while the White House tried to blame the jump in the unemployment rate on teenagers looking for work.

The jump in crude oil was too much for the stock market. The September S&P 500 fell 45.90 to 1,361.30, the lowest close in seven weeks.

Currencies update:

Statistics Canada said that the unemployment rate remained at 6.1% in May with a net gain of 8,400 jobs, slightly less than expected. Over the past twelve months, there has been a net gain of 339,000 jobs. The June Canadian dollar was down .06 at 98.09.

The German government reported that industrial production was down .8% in April, weaker than expected.

MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:

The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12645 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12771 and 12988 If market sustains below 12428 can see a further fall towards 12302 and 12085

Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Buy at 12465 Target 12540 and 12690 Stoploss at 12415

MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24883 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25117 and 25508 If market sustains below 24492 can see a further fall towards 24258 and 23867

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24570 Target 24880 and 25120 stoploss at 24420

MCXARUN
9994500540