Gold Outlook
29 May 2008 10:52:19
Gold drifted lower yesterday, as the dollar held on to its previous day gains.
International spot gold traded in the range $909.40 - $888.90 and last quoted at $900.10 ($904.80).
The dollar found support in better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
The recent data from the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
But data from the job market was slightly encouraging. According to the latest release by US Labor Department, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 17th. However, the four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000, reaching 372,250.
The number of continuing jobless claims was unchanged for the week ended May 10, at 3.07 million. The four-week average of those claims rose by 31,750, to 3.05 million.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
The real GDP growth is revised to grow at 0.3% to 1.2% this year, down from the previous forecast of a 1.3% to 2.0% rate.
Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $914.10 – $893.80 and closed at $904.00 ($910.20).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 906.00; bearish below $ 901.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, May 29, 2008
energy intraday
Energy
29 May 2008 10:38:09
Energy May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region's biggest economy to boost imports.
Oil fell below $128 a barrel after the average U.S. gasoline pump prices rose to a record $3.937 a gallon, limiting demand at the start of the summer driving season. The dollar also gained against the euro for a second day, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Crude oil fell to a one-week low on signs that record U.S. gasoline prices will cut fuel consumption during the summer driving season. Gasoline pump prices reached an all-time high Monday, curbing demand at the start of the summer, when the country's fuel use typically peaks. Higher prices and a housing slump helped push U.S. consumer confidence to the lowest level since October 1992, a report showed Monday.
Oil markets are ``stressed'' by a lack of supply that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the International Energy Agency' said,
Crude prices drew some support from news of a weekend rebel attack on a Nigerian oil facility that cut about 130,000 barrels of the nation's oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note. News of disruptions in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push oil prices higher over the past year
According to EIA world oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008. U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008.
Natural gas in New York declined, following oil lower, amid speculation record prices will slash fuel demand. Norway, the second-largest seller of natural gas to Europe, will seek to increase annual exports by about 50 percent to compensate for declining oil output, the country's deputy oil minister said
MCX Crude Oil June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5640 levels. If market breaches 5640 may see prices to take further upside towards 5720 and 5855 However if it holds back below 5425 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5290 and 5210
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5660 Target 5580 and 5520 Stoploss 5710
MCX Natural gas June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 517.30 levels. If market breaches 517.30 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.60 and 533.33 However if it holds back below 501.30may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.60and 485.30
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 516 Target 512 and 507 Stop loss at 519.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:38:09
Energy May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region's biggest economy to boost imports.
Oil fell below $128 a barrel after the average U.S. gasoline pump prices rose to a record $3.937 a gallon, limiting demand at the start of the summer driving season. The dollar also gained against the euro for a second day, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Crude oil fell to a one-week low on signs that record U.S. gasoline prices will cut fuel consumption during the summer driving season. Gasoline pump prices reached an all-time high Monday, curbing demand at the start of the summer, when the country's fuel use typically peaks. Higher prices and a housing slump helped push U.S. consumer confidence to the lowest level since October 1992, a report showed Monday.
Oil markets are ``stressed'' by a lack of supply that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the International Energy Agency' said,
Crude prices drew some support from news of a weekend rebel attack on a Nigerian oil facility that cut about 130,000 barrels of the nation's oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note. News of disruptions in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push oil prices higher over the past year
According to EIA world oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008. U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008.
Natural gas in New York declined, following oil lower, amid speculation record prices will slash fuel demand. Norway, the second-largest seller of natural gas to Europe, will seek to increase annual exports by about 50 percent to compensate for declining oil output, the country's deputy oil minister said
MCX Crude Oil June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5640 levels. If market breaches 5640 may see prices to take further upside towards 5720 and 5855 However if it holds back below 5425 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5290 and 5210
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5660 Target 5580 and 5520 Stoploss 5710
MCX Natural gas June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 517.30 levels. If market breaches 517.30 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.60 and 533.33 However if it holds back below 501.30may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.60and 485.30
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 516 Target 512 and 507 Stop loss at 519.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
29 May 2008 10:25:46
Bullion May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell in New York for a second straight day as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment and Silver gained, before this week, gold had gained 40 percent in the past year as oil doubled, touching an all-time high of $135.09 a barrel last week
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday after a report showed new orders for US durable goods fell by less than expected in April, supporting the view the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold or even raise them by the end of the year
China, which may overtake South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, has discovered five major bullion deposits, the China Gold Association said. China's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.
Bullion soared to a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, as a falling U.S. dollar and declining equities led investors to buy alternative assets. China’s total gold resource is between 15,000 and 20,000 tons, the association said today. Production of the bullion in the first two months of the year was 38.2 tons, the association also said, without giving a comparison from a year earlier
There is some long liquidation in gold. "Certainly a part of it is fund activity and speculators." Gold futures dipped below $900, as psychologically important. The next key area is the $880s, and more specifically $886 for the June contract
The short-term sentiment was weak because of the softer euro and prices could come under selling pressure as trading in Europe gets underway. The metal could Retrace down toward support at $880/oz and the the weakness will likely prove temporary, and gold's longer-term outlook is still positive, given concerns about inflationary pressures and still-shaky outlook for the dollar,
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading lower.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Currencies update:
In Germany, annual inflation in three states topped 3% in May, highlighting upside risks to the reading for the euro zone’s biggest economy, due later on Wednesday. The data supported expectations for the European Central Bank to retain its hawkish, inflation-fighting stance despite signs of an economic slowdown seen in recent sentiment surveys from euro zone member states.
The dollar rose for a third day against a weighted basket of six currencies, including the euro and the yen. Record energy costs have fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to control inflation.
The Australian dollar's rally against the U.S. currency stalled after a slump in the price of gold, the country's third-most valuable export. The New Zealand dollar snapped an eight-day gain.
MCX Gold June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12262 If market breaches below 12262 may see prices to take further correction towards 12110 and 11959 However if it holds back above 12565 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12716 and 12868
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12485 Target 12350 and 12230 Stoploss at 12540
MCX Silver July Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23792 If market breaches below 23792 may see prices to take further correction towards 23333 and 22992 However if it holds back above 24592 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24933 and 25392
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24410 Target 24250 and 23970 stoploss at 24595
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:25:46
Bullion May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell in New York for a second straight day as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment and Silver gained, before this week, gold had gained 40 percent in the past year as oil doubled, touching an all-time high of $135.09 a barrel last week
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday after a report showed new orders for US durable goods fell by less than expected in April, supporting the view the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold or even raise them by the end of the year
China, which may overtake South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, has discovered five major bullion deposits, the China Gold Association said. China's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.
Bullion soared to a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, as a falling U.S. dollar and declining equities led investors to buy alternative assets. China’s total gold resource is between 15,000 and 20,000 tons, the association said today. Production of the bullion in the first two months of the year was 38.2 tons, the association also said, without giving a comparison from a year earlier
There is some long liquidation in gold. "Certainly a part of it is fund activity and speculators." Gold futures dipped below $900, as psychologically important. The next key area is the $880s, and more specifically $886 for the June contract
The short-term sentiment was weak because of the softer euro and prices could come under selling pressure as trading in Europe gets underway. The metal could Retrace down toward support at $880/oz and the the weakness will likely prove temporary, and gold's longer-term outlook is still positive, given concerns about inflationary pressures and still-shaky outlook for the dollar,
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading lower.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Currencies update:
In Germany, annual inflation in three states topped 3% in May, highlighting upside risks to the reading for the euro zone’s biggest economy, due later on Wednesday. The data supported expectations for the European Central Bank to retain its hawkish, inflation-fighting stance despite signs of an economic slowdown seen in recent sentiment surveys from euro zone member states.
The dollar rose for a third day against a weighted basket of six currencies, including the euro and the yen. Record energy costs have fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to control inflation.
The Australian dollar's rally against the U.S. currency stalled after a slump in the price of gold, the country's third-most valuable export. The New Zealand dollar snapped an eight-day gain.
MCX Gold June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12262 If market breaches below 12262 may see prices to take further correction towards 12110 and 11959 However if it holds back above 12565 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12716 and 12868
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12485 Target 12350 and 12230 Stoploss at 12540
MCX Silver July Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23792 If market breaches below 23792 may see prices to take further correction towards 23333 and 22992 However if it holds back above 24592 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24933 and 25392
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24410 Target 24250 and 23970 stoploss at 24595
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Basemetals
29 May 2008 10:11:40
Base Metals May 29, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Real GDP in Malaysia was up 7.1% in the first quarter from a year ago, stronger than expected. Malaysia is the third largest economy in Southeast Asia.
Copper
Copper dropped to a two-month low in London as rising inventories signalled slower demand. MCX Copper June dropped towards the low of 342.40 and bounced back to 347.80
Metals bearish movement was supported by weakness oil and bullion prices as Crude oil fell in New York as prices around $130 a barrel may lead consumers in the U.S. and Asia to limit fuel purchases. Gold fell in New York, heading for the biggest two-day drop in three weeks, as crude oil extended its losses for a second straight day, reducing demand for the precious metal an inflation hedge. Silver also dropped.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 1,400 metric tons to 125,800 tons, the highest since March 13, according to the exchange's daily warehouse report.
Metal orders may drop ahead of the northern hemisphere summer when manufacturing slows, said Alex Heath, head of base-metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 351.4 levels. If market breaches 351.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 354.9 and 359.4 however if it holds back below 343.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.8 and 335.3
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346 Target 349 and 352 SL 344.10
Nickel
Nickel fell for a second day in Asia on a weaker outlook for demand from the stainless steel industry, which accounts for two-thirds of total nickel use. Copper fell.
Stainless steel output has been picking up more slowly than anticipated, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Nickel inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses stood at 48,558 metric tons yesterday, nearly 7 times the level a year ago.
The price of nickel, which has halved in the past year, may rebound as China shuts furnaces producing the substitute nickel pig iron, a Chinese smelter said.
China last August issued orders restricting investment in nickel pig iron furnaces and demanded the closure of furnaces with a capacity of less than 300 cubic meters to curb energy consumption. Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel.
Nickel pig iron, processed from low-grade nickel ore, contains 4 to 10 percent nickel. The price of nickel has plunged because of the use of substitute and as stainless steel producers ran down inventories rather than buy new stocks.
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered prices on May 22 after mills reduced usage. The raw material has been in a surplus for 13 months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
China's nickel demand, including refined metal and nickel-ore content, may jump 20 percent this year on increased stainless-steel production, an analyst at Xinhua News Agency's specialist metals publication said.
Nickel consumption may rise from 335,000 metric tons last year, Chong Dahai of the fortnightly China Metals report said in an interview at a conference in Shanghai. Imports of the refined metal may outpace ore because of falling prices on the London Metal Exchange, the stronger yuan and the government's crackdown on small furnaces making nickel pig iron, he said.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –54 MT to 48504 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 948 If market breaches below 948 may see prices to take further correction towards 928 and 906 However if it holds back above 989 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1011 and 1031
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 970-975 Target 955 and 940 SL 986
Zinc
MCX Zinc May dropped towards the low of 88.35 following heave inventory data at LME and move was supported by weakness in copper and bullion-energy prices.
Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose the most since Jan. 7. Inventories climbed 7,000 metric tons, or 5.4 percent, to 135,650 tons, the highest since October 2006, according to exchange figures.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.8 and 85.3 However if it holds back above 91.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 94.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91 Target 88 and 86 SL 92.30
Lead
Lead fell to a one-year low on the London Metal Exchange. The metal for delivery in three months fell to $1,980 a metric ton, the lowest since May 17, 2007, and was at $2,000 a ton as of 1:21 p.m. local time. Prices have dropped 22 percent this year.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 63575 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 85.9 If market breaches below 85.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.3 and 83.1 However if it holds back above 88.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 89.8 and 91.4
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 88 Target 86 and 84 SL at 89.20
Aluminium
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1225 MT to 1072300 MT
Saudi Arabian Mining Co., the state- owned metals and minerals producer known as Ma'aden, said its aluminum project with Rio Tinto Group will be delayed to 2012 due to the lack of power supply.
Workers at CVG Industria Venezolana de Aluminio CA, Venezuela's biggest state-owned aluminium smelter, went on strike after bonuses were withheld, Correo del Caroni said. The strike began at 9:30 a.m. local time yesterday after the company sent a letter saying it wouldn't make payments, the Venezuelan newspaper said.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.8 levels. If market breaches 126.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 129.0 and 131.0 However if it holds back below 122.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.6 and 118.4
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 124 Target 126 and 128 SL 122.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:11:40
Base Metals May 29, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Real GDP in Malaysia was up 7.1% in the first quarter from a year ago, stronger than expected. Malaysia is the third largest economy in Southeast Asia.
Copper
Copper dropped to a two-month low in London as rising inventories signalled slower demand. MCX Copper June dropped towards the low of 342.40 and bounced back to 347.80
Metals bearish movement was supported by weakness oil and bullion prices as Crude oil fell in New York as prices around $130 a barrel may lead consumers in the U.S. and Asia to limit fuel purchases. Gold fell in New York, heading for the biggest two-day drop in three weeks, as crude oil extended its losses for a second straight day, reducing demand for the precious metal an inflation hedge. Silver also dropped.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 1,400 metric tons to 125,800 tons, the highest since March 13, according to the exchange's daily warehouse report.
Metal orders may drop ahead of the northern hemisphere summer when manufacturing slows, said Alex Heath, head of base-metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 351.4 levels. If market breaches 351.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 354.9 and 359.4 however if it holds back below 343.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.8 and 335.3
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346 Target 349 and 352 SL 344.10
Nickel
Nickel fell for a second day in Asia on a weaker outlook for demand from the stainless steel industry, which accounts for two-thirds of total nickel use. Copper fell.
Stainless steel output has been picking up more slowly than anticipated, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Nickel inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses stood at 48,558 metric tons yesterday, nearly 7 times the level a year ago.
The price of nickel, which has halved in the past year, may rebound as China shuts furnaces producing the substitute nickel pig iron, a Chinese smelter said.
China last August issued orders restricting investment in nickel pig iron furnaces and demanded the closure of furnaces with a capacity of less than 300 cubic meters to curb energy consumption. Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel.
Nickel pig iron, processed from low-grade nickel ore, contains 4 to 10 percent nickel. The price of nickel has plunged because of the use of substitute and as stainless steel producers ran down inventories rather than buy new stocks.
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered prices on May 22 after mills reduced usage. The raw material has been in a surplus for 13 months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
China's nickel demand, including refined metal and nickel-ore content, may jump 20 percent this year on increased stainless-steel production, an analyst at Xinhua News Agency's specialist metals publication said.
Nickel consumption may rise from 335,000 metric tons last year, Chong Dahai of the fortnightly China Metals report said in an interview at a conference in Shanghai. Imports of the refined metal may outpace ore because of falling prices on the London Metal Exchange, the stronger yuan and the government's crackdown on small furnaces making nickel pig iron, he said.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –54 MT to 48504 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 948 If market breaches below 948 may see prices to take further correction towards 928 and 906 However if it holds back above 989 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1011 and 1031
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 970-975 Target 955 and 940 SL 986
Zinc
MCX Zinc May dropped towards the low of 88.35 following heave inventory data at LME and move was supported by weakness in copper and bullion-energy prices.
Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose the most since Jan. 7. Inventories climbed 7,000 metric tons, or 5.4 percent, to 135,650 tons, the highest since October 2006, according to exchange figures.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.8 and 85.3 However if it holds back above 91.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 94.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91 Target 88 and 86 SL 92.30
Lead
Lead fell to a one-year low on the London Metal Exchange. The metal for delivery in three months fell to $1,980 a metric ton, the lowest since May 17, 2007, and was at $2,000 a ton as of 1:21 p.m. local time. Prices have dropped 22 percent this year.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 63575 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 85.9 If market breaches below 85.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.3 and 83.1 However if it holds back above 88.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 89.8 and 91.4
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 88 Target 86 and 84 SL at 89.20
Aluminium
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1225 MT to 1072300 MT
Saudi Arabian Mining Co., the state- owned metals and minerals producer known as Ma'aden, said its aluminum project with Rio Tinto Group will be delayed to 2012 due to the lack of power supply.
Workers at CVG Industria Venezolana de Aluminio CA, Venezuela's biggest state-owned aluminium smelter, went on strike after bonuses were withheld, Correo del Caroni said. The strike began at 9:30 a.m. local time yesterday after the company sent a letter saying it wouldn't make payments, the Venezuelan newspaper said.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.8 levels. If market breaches 126.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 129.0 and 131.0 However if it holds back below 122.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.6 and 118.4
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 124 Target 126 and 128 SL 122.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US dollar has gained against the euro and yen as markets fully factor a hundred percent chance of no rate cut in the end of June meeting. In June Eurozone and Asian growth will be the key for the US dollar as US growth is already discounted. If they falter and inflation zooms in these regions, the US dollar could pare some of its 2008 losses. Overall June will be a volatile month for the currency markets. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the upcoming US hurricane season. For the base metals Chinese demand will be the key. Zinc and Nickel can fall further in June if demand does not rise as much. For copper it’s better to remain on the sidelines.
If crude oil falls, gold and silver fall more. Whereas when crude oil rises, gold and silver do not rise as much. This is not a short term positive sign. Crude oil prices will be the key for gold and silver in the short term. If crude oil remains firm, gold will continue to find buyers on sharp dips. Gold June futures are expiring tomorrow. Traders and investors have started investing for June. In June spot gold will trade in a wider $850-$950 range. A break from the $850-$950 zone will be there if the US dollar and energy prices change track.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver has to close over $1754 tomorrow else it will fall back to the $1696, $1606 zone.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
As long as crude oil holds $124.80 downside will be limited and it will target $135 once again.
MCXARUN
9994500540
If crude oil falls, gold and silver fall more. Whereas when crude oil rises, gold and silver do not rise as much. This is not a short term positive sign. Crude oil prices will be the key for gold and silver in the short term. If crude oil remains firm, gold will continue to find buyers on sharp dips. Gold June futures are expiring tomorrow. Traders and investors have started investing for June. In June spot gold will trade in a wider $850-$950 range. A break from the $850-$950 zone will be there if the US dollar and energy prices change track.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver has to close over $1754 tomorrow else it will fall back to the $1696, $1606 zone.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
As long as crude oil holds $124.80 downside will be limited and it will target $135 once again.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, May 23, 2008
energy intraday
Energy
23 May 2008 10:35:10
Energy
Major Headlines:
Oil soared on Thursday, hitting new record highs above $135 per barrel on both sides of the Atlantic before turning lower on a combination of profit-taking and a bounce in the dollar
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production rates.
The price surge over the last two sessions followed a surprise drop in U.S. fuel stocks inventories in the weekly report from the Department of Energy, sparking further supply fears. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 5.4 million barrels, confounding market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, down by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a small weekly decline ahead of the driving season
Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
The news was particularly market-sensitive, coming days ahead of the U.S.Summer-holiday driving season that kicks off this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Americans have begun buying less gasoline as prices at the pump hit new highs. The change in driving habits is raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending, the main engine of the world's biggest economy.
The rapid surge in oil prices came as the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its 2008 growth forecast for the U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer. The Fed on Wednesday slashed its forecasts to a range of 0.3 to 1.2 percent, from its prior forecast of 1.3 to 2.0 percent in January. The central bank cited higher oil prices as a key factor weighing on momentum.
Natural gas in storage in the U.S. rose last week but is 0.2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 85 billion cubic feet to more than 1.61 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 16.
MCX Crude Oil June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5789 levels. If market breaches 5789 may see prices to take further upside towards 5907 and 5993 however if it holds back below 5585 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5499 and 5381
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5750 Target 5680 and 5610 Stop loss 5790
MCX Natural Gas May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 518.67 levels. If market breaches 518.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.33 and 534.67 however if it holds back below 502.67 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.33 and 486.67
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 507 Target 511 and 515 Stop loss at 503
23 May 2008 10:35:10
Energy
Major Headlines:
Oil soared on Thursday, hitting new record highs above $135 per barrel on both sides of the Atlantic before turning lower on a combination of profit-taking and a bounce in the dollar
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production rates.
The price surge over the last two sessions followed a surprise drop in U.S. fuel stocks inventories in the weekly report from the Department of Energy, sparking further supply fears. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 5.4 million barrels, confounding market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, down by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a small weekly decline ahead of the driving season
Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
The news was particularly market-sensitive, coming days ahead of the U.S.Summer-holiday driving season that kicks off this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Americans have begun buying less gasoline as prices at the pump hit new highs. The change in driving habits is raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending, the main engine of the world's biggest economy.
The rapid surge in oil prices came as the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its 2008 growth forecast for the U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer. The Fed on Wednesday slashed its forecasts to a range of 0.3 to 1.2 percent, from its prior forecast of 1.3 to 2.0 percent in January. The central bank cited higher oil prices as a key factor weighing on momentum.
Natural gas in storage in the U.S. rose last week but is 0.2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 85 billion cubic feet to more than 1.61 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 16.
MCX Crude Oil June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5789 levels. If market breaches 5789 may see prices to take further upside towards 5907 and 5993 however if it holds back below 5585 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5499 and 5381
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5750 Target 5680 and 5610 Stop loss 5790
MCX Natural Gas May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 518.67 levels. If market breaches 518.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.33 and 534.67 however if it holds back below 502.67 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.33 and 486.67
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 507 Target 511 and 515 Stop loss at 503
bullion intraday
Bullions
23 May 2008 10:27:56
Bullion
Major Headlines:
Gold fell from a one-month high as the dollar rebounded against the euro and crude oil dropped from a record, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also declined.
The dollar snapped a two-day slide, rising from the lowest in a month against the euro. Before today, gold had gained 11 percent this year as the euro climbed 8.3 percent against the dollar.
Rocketing oil prices, which Thursday struck a record $135.09, stoked inflation fears to which the precious metal is often bought as a hedge and stemmed gold's losses. Meanwhile, some say there is a strong chance the dollar could fall again, which would likely boost gold.
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs by the end of the year to fight inflation. Traders see a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise its target interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent in September, up from 21 percent yesterday, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $540.8 billion last week, the central bank said. The value of reserves increased by $4 billion in the week ended May 16, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, The reserves gained $2.9 billion in the previous week.
Gold sales in the United Arab Emirates rose 15 percent in the first quarter, Asharq al-Awsat reported, citing the World Gold Council. Sales in the first quarter reached 3.1 billion dirhams ($844 million) from 2.7 billion dirhams in the year-earlier period, the Saudi-owned newspaper said, citing the council.
Gold has trekked higher for five straight sessions -- gaining 7 percent in the past week -- as crude's seemingly relentless drive higher adds to growing inflation fears and boots demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Precious metals are traditionally viewed as hedges against inflation because they're known for holding their value.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 365,000, less than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.
Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12923 levels. If market breaches 12923 may see prices to take further upside towards 13105 and 13212 however if it holds back below 12634 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12527 and 12345
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12820 Target 12745 and 12610 Stoploss at 12865
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25315 levels. If market breaches 25315 may see prices to take further upside towards 25709 and 26034 however if it holds back below 24596 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24271 and 23877
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 25110 Target 24820 and 23650 Stop loss at 25250
MCXARUN
9994500540
23 May 2008 10:27:56
Bullion
Major Headlines:
Gold fell from a one-month high as the dollar rebounded against the euro and crude oil dropped from a record, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also declined.
The dollar snapped a two-day slide, rising from the lowest in a month against the euro. Before today, gold had gained 11 percent this year as the euro climbed 8.3 percent against the dollar.
Rocketing oil prices, which Thursday struck a record $135.09, stoked inflation fears to which the precious metal is often bought as a hedge and stemmed gold's losses. Meanwhile, some say there is a strong chance the dollar could fall again, which would likely boost gold.
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs by the end of the year to fight inflation. Traders see a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise its target interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent in September, up from 21 percent yesterday, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $540.8 billion last week, the central bank said. The value of reserves increased by $4 billion in the week ended May 16, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, The reserves gained $2.9 billion in the previous week.
Gold sales in the United Arab Emirates rose 15 percent in the first quarter, Asharq al-Awsat reported, citing the World Gold Council. Sales in the first quarter reached 3.1 billion dirhams ($844 million) from 2.7 billion dirhams in the year-earlier period, the Saudi-owned newspaper said, citing the council.
Gold has trekked higher for five straight sessions -- gaining 7 percent in the past week -- as crude's seemingly relentless drive higher adds to growing inflation fears and boots demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Precious metals are traditionally viewed as hedges against inflation because they're known for holding their value.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 365,000, less than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.
Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12923 levels. If market breaches 12923 may see prices to take further upside towards 13105 and 13212 however if it holds back below 12634 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12527 and 12345
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12820 Target 12745 and 12610 Stoploss at 12865
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25315 levels. If market breaches 25315 may see prices to take further upside towards 25709 and 26034 however if it holds back below 24596 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24271 and 23877
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 25110 Target 24820 and 23650 Stop loss at 25250
MCXARUN
9994500540
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