Base Metals
21 May 2008 10:22:59
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the producer price index was up .2% in April and up 6.5% from a year ago, less than expected and down from a 6.9% annual gain in March. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .4% in April and up 3.0% from a year ago.
TheChicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity slipped from -.98 to -1.17 in April. Only 21 of the 85 indicators used registered positive growth.
InCanada, wholesale sales totaled C$42.7 billion in March, up .6% on the month and stronger than expected.
Producer prices inGermany were up 1.1% in April, the biggest monthly jump in over two years. The June euro is trading higher.
Copper
Copper fell for a second day on concern that rising inventories are signaling weakening demand fromChina, the world's biggest metals buyer.
Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have gained 11 percent this month, raising concern usage has slowed.
Chinese copper imports last month dropped 19 percent from a year earlier, the nation's customs office said last week. Before today, copper had jumped 24 percent in 2008 partly boosted by concerns that supplies may fall short of consumption.
Judy Zhu, commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Plc inShanghai, said copper and aluminium prices will decline this year as tightening credit policy inChina slows demand growth.
China, the world's largest consumer of all industrialmetals, raised deposit reserve requirements for banks to the highest ever, to cool down inflation and economic growth.
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., the nation's largest copper producer, said it will shut its smelter in southernIndia for maintenance work that may last 22 days. The 400,000-ton plant at Tuticorin will close starting May 22.
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, won't face more protests by contractors' employees over bonus payments, since the workers are getting paid,according to a union spokesman. Workers don't plan any more protests, Claudio Valenzuela, a Santiago-based spokesman for the Confederation of Copper Workers, which organized an earlier strike, said today in a telephone interview.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 347.9 If market breaches below 347.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 344.7 and 341.8 However if it holds back above 353.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 356.8 and 360.0
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 351.50-352.50 Target 346 and 342 SL 354.20
Nickel
MCX Nickel May traded weak following other metals at LME, Nickel registered days low near 1095.5 while slightly covered at closing.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -216 MT to 49278 MT
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1095.0 If market breaches below 1095.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1085.0 and 1074.5; However if it holds back above 1115.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1126.0 and 1136.0
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1108-1110 Target 1095 and 1080 SL 1122
Zinc
Zinc fell for a second consecutive day in London as analysts forecast production losses from China's earthquake will have a limited effect on this year's output.
MCX Zinc May traded towards the low of 94.45 following other metals while market gave a small recovery while closing.
Production may drop by 60,000 metric tons or 1.5 percent of this year's estimated output because of smelter damage, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said today. China, the world's largest producer of the metal, will produce 4.06 million tons in 2008, according to Antaike.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –350 MT to 128225 MT
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 94.1 If market breaches below 94.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 92.8 and 91.1; However if it holds back above 97.2 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.9 and 100.2
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 96.20 Target 94.5 and 93 SL 97.40
Lead
Lead fell to the lowest in almost one year on the London Metal Exchange.
The contract for delivery in three months fell as much as $81, or 3.6 percent, to $2,150 a metric ton, the lowest intraday price since May 25, 2007. It traded at $2,155 a ton as of 10:11 a.m. local time.
Lead fell to the lowest in almost a year in London as a 42 percent increase in stockpiles in 2008 suggests supply will move into surplus this quarter, from a deficit previously.
Lead inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have swollen to 64,450 metric tons, the highest since Sept. 25, 2006. The market is moving into a surplus of 40,000 tons this quarter, from a shortfall in the first three months, according to Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
Lead, mainly used in car batteries, has lost 16 percent this year, the most among all LME-traded metals. Declining prices will dent sales at producers including Stockholm-based Boliden AB, whose shares have tumbled 8.3 percent this year.
Purchases in China, the largest user, have slowed this year as buyers wait for the government to release rules in June on use of electric bicycles, Berry said. Such batteries account for about 20 percent of the nation's lead usage, Berry said.
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.2 If market breaches below 90.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 88.2 and 85.1; However if it holds back above 95.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.4 and 100.4
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 93.50 Target 91 and 88.5 SL 94.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May traded weak following Lead and Zinc buy market-bounced towards high before closing. Aluminium registered days low near 124.35 while days high near 127.00, Hevay inventory data at LME also supported down prices of the metal.
LME-monitored aluminum stockpiles expanded 22,175 tons, or 2.1 percent, to 1.06 million tons, the LME said today in a daily report. That is the highest since May 28, 2004. All increase took place in Mobile, Alabama. The U.S. is the world's second-largest aluminum producer after China.
Average daily aluminum production rose to 107,100 metric tons last month, the highest since November, as Chinese output rebounded, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute.
China, the world's biggest smelter of the metal, produced 1.1 million tons, a second straight monthly increase, the London-based group backed by metals producers said today on its Web site. Chinese production dropped in January and February after the country suffered the worst snowstorms in decades.
World output totaled 3.213 million tons last month, after 3.218 million tons in March and 3.092 million tons a year ago. African output dropped to 135,000 tons last month, down 5.6 percent from March, and a 7.5 percent decline from a year ago. South Africa, the continent's biggest metal producer, has had a power shortage this year that reduced output at all smelters.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.9 levels. If market breaches 126.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 128.3 and 129.5; however if it holds back below 124.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 123.0 and 121.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 126.30 Target 125 and 123 SL 127.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
bullion intraday
Bullion
21 May 2008 10:46:22
Major Headlines:
Gold rose in New York for the fourth straight session as a weaker dollar and higher energy costs boosted the precious metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.
The dollar fell after the International Monetary Fund said the U.S. housing slump still poses ``serious risks'' to financial markets and Gold Gained, extending this month's rally, on speculation declines in the dollar and rising commodity prices will spur inflation, reviving demand for the metal as a hedge. Platinum, palladium and silver also gained
According to a report issued by the World Gold Council, preliminary data showed that during the recent Akshaya Thritiya -- a Hindu festival considered an auspicious time to buy gold -- has generated lower sales than in 2007 because of high prices. Gold sales during the May 7-8 Akshaya Trithiya festival were lower by 11 percent at 48.99 tones, as against 55 tones a year earlier.
Gold traded above $920 an ounce and as the crude oil's holding above $128 a barrel boosted energy costs and appeal of bullion as hedge against inflation. Crude oil futures in New York rallied to a record $129.29 a barrel yesterday while gold reached $924.40 an ounce, the highest since April 23. The surge in oil spurred a 3.4 percent gain in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this month.
Gold demand in the first quarter was 701.3 metric tons, the lowest in 5 years and down 16 percent from a year earlier, the World Gold Council said today. In India, the biggest user, consumption fell 50 percent and the world mine production totaled 593 tons, up slightly from a year ago
April month Gold holdings fell at Swiss National Bank in Zurich by 401.4 ounce from 35,790 ounce (March 2008)
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the producer price index was up .2% in April and up 6.5% from a year ago, less than expected and down from a 6.9% annual gain in March. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .4% in April and up 3.0% from a year ago. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity slipped from -.98 to -1.17 in April. Only 21 of the 85 indicators used registered positive growth
Currencies update:
An index of service in Japan, the tertiary index, was up .3% in March, less than expected. Also, the Bank of Japan met and kept the interest rate unchanged at .50% with concerns about a slowing economy. The June yen is steady to higher.
The June Australian dollar is steady to higher after minutes from the latest meeting at the Reserve Bank of Australia showed consideration of another increase in the interest rate.
Producer prices in Germany were up 1.1% in April, the biggest monthly jump in over two years. The euro was well bid above $1.56 after an early blip, buoyed by comments from the head of a leading research institute in Germany suggested that the European Central Bank will be forced to hike borrowing costs if inflation remains high.
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12736 levels. If market breaches 12736 may see prices to take further upside towards 12841 and 13033 however if it holds back below 12439 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12247 and 12142
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12550 Target 12635 and 12710 Stoploss at 12505
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 24546 levels. If market breaches 24546 may see prices to take further upside towards 24832 and 25364 however if it holds back below 23728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 23196 and 22910
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24120 Target 24320 and 24650 Stop loss at 23950
MCXARUN
9994500540
21 May 2008 10:46:22
Major Headlines:
Gold rose in New York for the fourth straight session as a weaker dollar and higher energy costs boosted the precious metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.
The dollar fell after the International Monetary Fund said the U.S. housing slump still poses ``serious risks'' to financial markets and Gold Gained, extending this month's rally, on speculation declines in the dollar and rising commodity prices will spur inflation, reviving demand for the metal as a hedge. Platinum, palladium and silver also gained
According to a report issued by the World Gold Council, preliminary data showed that during the recent Akshaya Thritiya -- a Hindu festival considered an auspicious time to buy gold -- has generated lower sales than in 2007 because of high prices. Gold sales during the May 7-8 Akshaya Trithiya festival were lower by 11 percent at 48.99 tones, as against 55 tones a year earlier.
Gold traded above $920 an ounce and as the crude oil's holding above $128 a barrel boosted energy costs and appeal of bullion as hedge against inflation. Crude oil futures in New York rallied to a record $129.29 a barrel yesterday while gold reached $924.40 an ounce, the highest since April 23. The surge in oil spurred a 3.4 percent gain in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this month.
Gold demand in the first quarter was 701.3 metric tons, the lowest in 5 years and down 16 percent from a year earlier, the World Gold Council said today. In India, the biggest user, consumption fell 50 percent and the world mine production totaled 593 tons, up slightly from a year ago
April month Gold holdings fell at Swiss National Bank in Zurich by 401.4 ounce from 35,790 ounce (March 2008)
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the producer price index was up .2% in April and up 6.5% from a year ago, less than expected and down from a 6.9% annual gain in March. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .4% in April and up 3.0% from a year ago. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity slipped from -.98 to -1.17 in April. Only 21 of the 85 indicators used registered positive growth
Currencies update:
An index of service in Japan, the tertiary index, was up .3% in March, less than expected. Also, the Bank of Japan met and kept the interest rate unchanged at .50% with concerns about a slowing economy. The June yen is steady to higher.
The June Australian dollar is steady to higher after minutes from the latest meeting at the Reserve Bank of Australia showed consideration of another increase in the interest rate.
Producer prices in Germany were up 1.1% in April, the biggest monthly jump in over two years. The euro was well bid above $1.56 after an early blip, buoyed by comments from the head of a leading research institute in Germany suggested that the European Central Bank will be forced to hike borrowing costs if inflation remains high.
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12736 levels. If market breaches 12736 may see prices to take further upside towards 12841 and 13033 however if it holds back below 12439 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12247 and 12142
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12550 Target 12635 and 12710 Stoploss at 12505
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 24546 levels. If market breaches 24546 may see prices to take further upside towards 24832 and 25364 however if it holds back below 23728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 23196 and 22910
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24120 Target 24320 and 24650 Stop loss at 23950
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The long term trend in crude oil is very bullish. I am scared by the pace of the rise of crude oil. Short positions have been converted into long positions in crude. One billionaire fund manager says that crude oil will cross $140 and investors try to take crude oil near it in nearly a day. Tomorrow a fund manager says that crude oil prices will rise to $200 say in June then investors will try to take crude oil to $200 a barrel. The situation in crude oil is similar to gold prices. Momentum is bullish technically but a correction can happen anytime. When will that correction happen? Anywhere between the next one month to six months. It is very difficult to predict a top in momentum markets.
The European central bank (ECB) may not cut interest rates in 2008 and there is a slight possibility that it may raise interest rates towards the close. Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in December has been fully factored in by the markets. Even if the Fed raises interest rates in December and the ECB also raises interest rates in the same time then interest rate differentials will remain the same. So the euro will continue to remain firm against the US dollar, but the pace of gains will be very slow. The US dollar has weakened against all the currencies as higher crude oil prices will delay the US economic recovery. In the short term the US dollar will gain against the major currencies if and only if either growth differentials narrow or interest rate differentials narrow. Till then the greenback will trade with a softer bias in the medium term.
Lehman brothers has said that it will cut 1300 jobs globally. Once again firing news has started to come up from the financial services sector including one from Morgan Stanley in the past fortnight. Whether these jobs shift to Indian knowledge processing (KPO’s) firms remains to be seen? If more firing continues by the financial services industry, one should expect US May payrolls to remain in the negative zone and renewed selling pressure on the US dollar.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver can target $2125 in the short term as long as $1580 holds and momentum supports it.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Long term investors should wait for a correction in crude oil prices as the risk to return ratio is not that great.
The European central bank (ECB) may not cut interest rates in 2008 and there is a slight possibility that it may raise interest rates towards the close. Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in December has been fully factored in by the markets. Even if the Fed raises interest rates in December and the ECB also raises interest rates in the same time then interest rate differentials will remain the same. So the euro will continue to remain firm against the US dollar, but the pace of gains will be very slow. The US dollar has weakened against all the currencies as higher crude oil prices will delay the US economic recovery. In the short term the US dollar will gain against the major currencies if and only if either growth differentials narrow or interest rate differentials narrow. Till then the greenback will trade with a softer bias in the medium term.
Lehman brothers has said that it will cut 1300 jobs globally. Once again firing news has started to come up from the financial services sector including one from Morgan Stanley in the past fortnight. Whether these jobs shift to Indian knowledge processing (KPO’s) firms remains to be seen? If more firing continues by the financial services industry, one should expect US May payrolls to remain in the negative zone and renewed selling pressure on the US dollar.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver can target $2125 in the short term as long as $1580 holds and momentum supports it.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
energy intraday
Energy
20 May 2008 11:37:42
Major Headlines:
Oil stayed close to record highs as OPEC looked increasingly unlikely to raise production despite peak prices, and on expectations of higher demand from China. And also the oil price has managed to hold near $125/bbl despite concerns about economic weakness and expectation for a stronger U.S. dollar
Goldman Sachs, the most active investment bank in energy markets, has predicted crude will jump to $141 in the second half of the year.
Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the dollar for short-term direction, a weekly U.S. energy inventory report due Wednesday and market players will track imports into China after last week's disaster. Also, participants will keep an eye on U.S. gasoline stocks ahead of the driving season, which kicks off late May, to see whether the credit crunch has had a severe impact on demand
Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Nuaimi, said Friday the kingdom had increased oil production by 300,000 barrels per day from May 10 in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million barrels per day in June.
But Nuaimi reiterated OPEC's long-standing view that global oil supply was balanced with demand and that market fundamentals were sound. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in the 13-nation OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil. Iran, another major producer, said on Saturday that any output hike by OPEC as requested by the United States would not affect prices.
MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5378 levels. If market breaches 5378 may see prices to take further upside towards 5427 and 5460 however if it holds back below 5296 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5263 and 5214
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5260 Target 5310 and 5370 Stop loss 5215
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 477.70 levels. If market breaches477.70 may see prices to take further upside towards 481.90 and 484.60 however if it holds back below 470.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 468.10and463.90
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 469 Target 474 and 480 Stop loss at 466
MCXARUN
9994500540
20 May 2008 11:37:42
Major Headlines:
Oil stayed close to record highs as OPEC looked increasingly unlikely to raise production despite peak prices, and on expectations of higher demand from China. And also the oil price has managed to hold near $125/bbl despite concerns about economic weakness and expectation for a stronger U.S. dollar
Goldman Sachs, the most active investment bank in energy markets, has predicted crude will jump to $141 in the second half of the year.
Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the dollar for short-term direction, a weekly U.S. energy inventory report due Wednesday and market players will track imports into China after last week's disaster. Also, participants will keep an eye on U.S. gasoline stocks ahead of the driving season, which kicks off late May, to see whether the credit crunch has had a severe impact on demand
Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Nuaimi, said Friday the kingdom had increased oil production by 300,000 barrels per day from May 10 in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million barrels per day in June.
But Nuaimi reiterated OPEC's long-standing view that global oil supply was balanced with demand and that market fundamentals were sound. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in the 13-nation OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil. Iran, another major producer, said on Saturday that any output hike by OPEC as requested by the United States would not affect prices.
MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5378 levels. If market breaches 5378 may see prices to take further upside towards 5427 and 5460 however if it holds back below 5296 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5263 and 5214
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5260 Target 5310 and 5370 Stop loss 5215
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 477.70 levels. If market breaches477.70 may see prices to take further upside towards 481.90 and 484.60 however if it holds back below 470.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 468.10and463.90
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 469 Target 474 and 480 Stop loss at 466
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
20 May 2008 11:44:01
Major Headlines:
Spot gold climbed as high as$914.40 an ounce in New York Monday morning, its highest intraday level since April 22. The dollar remains a currency facing substantial headwinds in the form of the huge annual trade, current and now increasing budget deficits and burgeoning stagflation
Gold extended gains to hit its highest level in nearly a month above $900 an ounce on the back of speculative buying as oil held near record high, raising fears of inflation.
Previous attempts to revisit the record high have been met by heavy profit taking, which saw gold fall to a four-month low at $845 an ounce in early May. Whether gold will hold above $900 is a difficult question. Around about $920 should be the psychological resistance for the metal,
Gold rose to the highest in three weeks as surging energy costs boosted demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver dropped. Crude-oil futures approached the record high from May 16 before erasing gains. The surge in oil spurred a 3.3 percent gain in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this month. Gold is still down 13 percent from $1,033.90 an ounce, the highest ever, on March 17, when oil reached a previous peak
Platinum supplies will fall short of consumption for a second year in 2008 as increased demand from automakers, the biggest user, outpaces mine output from South Africa, the largest producer
Last year's deficit was 480,000 ounces, the largest since 2002, as auto use gained 8.2 percent and global supply fell to the lowest in three years, The metal rose to a record $2,301.50 an ounce in March and may trade at $1,775 to $2,500 in six months with a ``substantial deficit'' for the year
It might be a surprise that platinum jewelry demand held up as well as it did, China, which accounts for 49 percent of platinum jewelry demand, used 2.6 percent more, and gains in the U.K. and Switzerland spurred a 7.7 percent increase in Europe and the Platinum has gained 42 percent this year, outpacing gold's 8.8 percent advance and silver's 16 percent increase.
Supplies of silver will exceed demand from jewelers and other manufacturers by 2,691 metric tons, the highest in more than 20 years, Including investor demand and reduced sales of hedged production by miners, the surplus will be 541 tons compared with a deficit of 1,345 tons last year
Sino Gold Mining Ltd., owner of China's second-largest gold mine, said operations at the Jinfeng mine weren't affected by last week's earthquake in neighboring Sichuan province that killed more than 30,000 people. Sino Gold started output from Jinfeng in southern Guizhou province last year and has forecast output of as much as 160,000 ounces this year.
U.S.Economy:
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in April, a little better than expected. Six of the ten indicators showed positive gains
U.S. food prices may jump 5.5 percent this year, more than a previous forecast of 5 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Fats and oils may increase 11.5 percent, egg prices may climb 11 percent, and baked products could rise 8.5 percent
Currencies update:
The ECB has refrained from following the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England in lowering interest rates to shore up growth after a global increase in borrowing costs dimmed the outlook. The bank says Europe's economy is sound and inflation remains a bigger concern. While euro-region inflation slowed to 3.3 percent in April from a 16-year high of 3.6 percent in March, it's still above the ECB's 2 percent limit.
Construction output in the Euro area 15 was down 2.2% in March and down 1.4% from a year ago.
INR trading is closed yesterday due to bank Holiday
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12196 levels. If market breaches 12196 may see prices to take further upside towards 12362 and 12569however if it holds back below 11823 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11616 and 11450
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12265 Target 12335 and 12410 Stoploss at 12220
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 23482 levels. If market breaches23482 may see prices to take further upside towards 23843 and 24167however if it holds back below 22797 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22473 and 22112
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 23360 Target 23490 and 23650 Stop loss at 23240
MCXARUN
9994500540
20 May 2008 11:44:01
Major Headlines:
Spot gold climbed as high as$914.40 an ounce in New York Monday morning, its highest intraday level since April 22. The dollar remains a currency facing substantial headwinds in the form of the huge annual trade, current and now increasing budget deficits and burgeoning stagflation
Gold extended gains to hit its highest level in nearly a month above $900 an ounce on the back of speculative buying as oil held near record high, raising fears of inflation.
Previous attempts to revisit the record high have been met by heavy profit taking, which saw gold fall to a four-month low at $845 an ounce in early May. Whether gold will hold above $900 is a difficult question. Around about $920 should be the psychological resistance for the metal,
Gold rose to the highest in three weeks as surging energy costs boosted demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver dropped. Crude-oil futures approached the record high from May 16 before erasing gains. The surge in oil spurred a 3.3 percent gain in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this month. Gold is still down 13 percent from $1,033.90 an ounce, the highest ever, on March 17, when oil reached a previous peak
Platinum supplies will fall short of consumption for a second year in 2008 as increased demand from automakers, the biggest user, outpaces mine output from South Africa, the largest producer
Last year's deficit was 480,000 ounces, the largest since 2002, as auto use gained 8.2 percent and global supply fell to the lowest in three years, The metal rose to a record $2,301.50 an ounce in March and may trade at $1,775 to $2,500 in six months with a ``substantial deficit'' for the year
It might be a surprise that platinum jewelry demand held up as well as it did, China, which accounts for 49 percent of platinum jewelry demand, used 2.6 percent more, and gains in the U.K. and Switzerland spurred a 7.7 percent increase in Europe and the Platinum has gained 42 percent this year, outpacing gold's 8.8 percent advance and silver's 16 percent increase.
Supplies of silver will exceed demand from jewelers and other manufacturers by 2,691 metric tons, the highest in more than 20 years, Including investor demand and reduced sales of hedged production by miners, the surplus will be 541 tons compared with a deficit of 1,345 tons last year
Sino Gold Mining Ltd., owner of China's second-largest gold mine, said operations at the Jinfeng mine weren't affected by last week's earthquake in neighboring Sichuan province that killed more than 30,000 people. Sino Gold started output from Jinfeng in southern Guizhou province last year and has forecast output of as much as 160,000 ounces this year.
U.S.Economy:
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was up .1% in April, a little better than expected. Six of the ten indicators showed positive gains
U.S. food prices may jump 5.5 percent this year, more than a previous forecast of 5 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Fats and oils may increase 11.5 percent, egg prices may climb 11 percent, and baked products could rise 8.5 percent
Currencies update:
The ECB has refrained from following the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England in lowering interest rates to shore up growth after a global increase in borrowing costs dimmed the outlook. The bank says Europe's economy is sound and inflation remains a bigger concern. While euro-region inflation slowed to 3.3 percent in April from a 16-year high of 3.6 percent in March, it's still above the ECB's 2 percent limit.
Construction output in the Euro area 15 was down 2.2% in March and down 1.4% from a year ago.
INR trading is closed yesterday due to bank Holiday
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12196 levels. If market breaches 12196 may see prices to take further upside towards 12362 and 12569however if it holds back below 11823 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11616 and 11450
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12265 Target 12335 and 12410 Stoploss at 12220
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 23482 levels. If market breaches23482 may see prices to take further upside towards 23843 and 24167however if it holds back below 22797 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22473 and 22112
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 23360 Target 23490 and 23650 Stop loss at 23240
MCXARUN
9994500540
longview calls
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 12600-700-800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 12475, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 11725 SOME DOWN SIDE AGAIN(JUNE)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 512-15/520 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 499, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 431 DOWN RALLY AGAIN(JUNE)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1075-60 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1100, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 1150 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(MAY)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 12600-700-800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 12475, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 11725 SOME DOWN SIDE AGAIN(JUNE)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 512-15/520 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 499, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 431 DOWN RALLY AGAIN(JUNE)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1075-60 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1100, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 1150 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(MAY)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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