GOLD
for the day sell only below 11760 S/L 11780 and T/p 11725/11680-625/upto 11550 OR buy only abv 11950-975 S/L 11930 and T/p 12015/sustain abv uprally towards 12225 in coming days (any time close above 12010/12300-400/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 11525/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell only below 22825 S/L 22900 and T/p 22750/650/550/22450 towards 22300/sustain below down rally sharp OR buy only abv 23350 S/L 23290 and T/p 23450-550, only close abv 23675 uprally again test 24100-200 atleast in coming days (any time close below 22750-300/21575-500/ 20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23675/24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day sell only below 5200 S/L 5220 and T/p 5175-50/sustain close below 5150 down rally towards 5000-4900 in coming days OR buy only abv 5300-325 S/L 5280 and T/p 5360-5400 (now crude need to close above 5320-60 for bullish rally while close below 5150/ 5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 342, for the day sell only below 340 S/L 341.5 and T/p 338/36/34/32/330/down rally sharp OR buy only abv 346.5-347 S/L 345.4 and T/p 349-350.5/353.5/356-358.5/ 361.5/bullish rally (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, May 15, 2008
basemetals intraday
Base Metals
15 May 2008 10:04:56
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the consumer price index was up .2% in April and up 3.9% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .1% in April and up 2.3% from a year ago.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate for January to March remained at 5.2%, the same as three months ago. Also in January to March, 84,000 full-time jobs and 33,000 part-time jobs were added.
Industrial production in the Euro area 15 was down .2% in March after a gain of .3% in February.
Copper
Copper declined to a seven-week low on concern that a slowing global economy will curb demand for the metal used in pipes and wires. MCX Copper June traded mostly weak following international market.
Industrial-production growth inChina, the world's biggest copper buyer, slowed more than economists estimated last month, and imports of the metal dropped from a year earlier. The price of the metal has tripled in the past four years, partly because ofChina's booming economy.
A group representing contract workers at Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, extended a fast for a third day, saying the government is failing to comply with an accord that ended a 20-day strike last week.
Copper stockpiles earmarked for withdrawal from warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange jumped 44 percent to the highest in two weeks.
Metals output fromChina, the world's largest consumer, rose in April from a month ago as producers ramped up production to meet demand in the high-production season in spring. Output of alumina, a raw material, declined.
Copper output was the highest since November last year, aluminum the highest since December, lead a record high and zinc the highest this year, Bloomberg data shows.
Chinese shipments of steel, copper and other commodities were disrupted after the country's worst earthquake in 58 years closed the main railway in the country's central region.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.3 levels. If market breaches 346.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.2 and 352.0;however if it holds back below 340.5 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 337.7 and 334.8
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 341 Target 346 and 3349 Stop loss at 339.20
Nickel
MCX Nickel May traded weak following LME, market traded weak in a tight range of 1117-1147.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -282 MT to 49452 MT
Global stainless steel output will rise 8 to 15 percent this year, according to the Bureau of International Recycling.
Production will increase to 30 million to 32 million metric tons, the BIR said in statement e-mailed today. The stainless steel market will have a ``more positive year'' than in 2007, when there was a drop in the price of nickel, a raw material used to make the alloy, the BIR said.
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1144.7 levels. If market breaches 1144.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 1160.8 and 1174.7;however if it holds back below 1114.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1100.8 and 1084.7
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1120-23 Target 1095 and 1080 SL 1138
Zinc
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -375 MT to 124400 MT
Nyrstar NV, the world's largest zinc refiner, said China's strongest earthquake in more than half a century had no impact on its operations in the country.
Vedanta Resources Plc, India's largest zinc producer, may say fiscal second-half profit fell 14 percent on lower prices for the metal and as its share of profit from its Indian unit was eroded.
ILZSG Data:
Zinc consumption dropped in the first quarter, widening a surplus of the metal from a year earlier, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.
Demand for the metal used to galvanize steel declined 0.4 percent to 2.767 million metric tons, the Lisbon-based group said today on its Web site. Zinc oversupply was 72,000 tons, up from 59,000 tons in the same period a year ago, it said.
from 59,000 tons in the same period a year ago, it said.
Declining prices for the metal because of the surplus in production are lowering costs for users such as ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker. Zinc has fallen 2 percent this year, extending a slump of 44 percent last year that made the raw material the biggest loser on the London Metal Exchange.
Demand fell 4 percent in the U.S., the second-largest user, to 262,000 tons. Germany, Italy and Japan, all among the top 10 consumers, also saw declining usage. China, the world's biggest purchaser, posted growth of 9.4 percent in the quarter.
Metal production totaled 2.839 million tons, compared with 2.837 million tons last year, ILZSG said.
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 98.8 levels. If market breaches 98.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 100.7 and 102.2;however if it holds back below 95.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 93.8 and 91.9
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Buy at 96 Target 98 and 100 SL 94.80
Lead
MCX Lead traded mostly down; movement was volatile as market traded in a broad range of 93 –98.20
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 825 MT to 61900 MT
ILZSG: The lead deficit shrank to 7,000 tons, from 38,000 tons. Metal production increased 1.2 percent to 1.986 million tons and consumption declined 0.4 percent to 1.993 million tons. Lead for delivery in three months has lost 12 percent this year, the most on the LME.
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 93.6 If market breaches below 93.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 90.7 and 88.4;However if it holds back above 98.8 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 101.1 and 104.0
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 97 target 95 and 93.5 SL 98.20
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded strong towards high of 123.35 following LME and other metals, movement remained in tight range of 121.30 – 123.35
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was -1425 MT to 1032375 MT
Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-biggest aluminum producer, deepened output cuts at its New Zealand smelter to conserve dwindling hydroelectric reserves.
United Co. Rusal, the world's biggest aluminum producer, will spend $700 million to build and equip the Taishet Aluminum plant in Russia's Irkutsk region near China, the largest user of the metal.
Metals output from China, the world's largest consumer, rose in April from a month ago as producers ramped up production to meet demand in the high-production season in spring. Output of alumina, a raw material, declined.
Production of alumina, a raw material used in making aluminum, declined 9 percent from March. Some of China's major alumina producers, excluding Aluminum Corp. of China, cut output last month to prevent a decline in prices, according to an e- mailed report from Macquarie Group Ltd.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123.8 levels. If market breaches 123.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.6 and 125.9, however if it holds back below 121.8 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.5 and 119.7
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 122 Target 124 and 126 SL at 120.5
MCXARUN
9994500540
15 May 2008 10:04:56
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the consumer price index was up .2% in April and up 3.9% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .1% in April and up 2.3% from a year ago.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate for January to March remained at 5.2%, the same as three months ago. Also in January to March, 84,000 full-time jobs and 33,000 part-time jobs were added.
Industrial production in the Euro area 15 was down .2% in March after a gain of .3% in February.
Copper
Copper declined to a seven-week low on concern that a slowing global economy will curb demand for the metal used in pipes and wires. MCX Copper June traded mostly weak following international market.
Industrial-production growth inChina, the world's biggest copper buyer, slowed more than economists estimated last month, and imports of the metal dropped from a year earlier. The price of the metal has tripled in the past four years, partly because ofChina's booming economy.
A group representing contract workers at Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, extended a fast for a third day, saying the government is failing to comply with an accord that ended a 20-day strike last week.
Copper stockpiles earmarked for withdrawal from warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange jumped 44 percent to the highest in two weeks.
Metals output fromChina, the world's largest consumer, rose in April from a month ago as producers ramped up production to meet demand in the high-production season in spring. Output of alumina, a raw material, declined.
Copper output was the highest since November last year, aluminum the highest since December, lead a record high and zinc the highest this year, Bloomberg data shows.
Chinese shipments of steel, copper and other commodities were disrupted after the country's worst earthquake in 58 years closed the main railway in the country's central region.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.3 levels. If market breaches 346.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.2 and 352.0;however if it holds back below 340.5 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 337.7 and 334.8
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 341 Target 346 and 3349 Stop loss at 339.20
Nickel
MCX Nickel May traded weak following LME, market traded weak in a tight range of 1117-1147.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -282 MT to 49452 MT
Global stainless steel output will rise 8 to 15 percent this year, according to the Bureau of International Recycling.
Production will increase to 30 million to 32 million metric tons, the BIR said in statement e-mailed today. The stainless steel market will have a ``more positive year'' than in 2007, when there was a drop in the price of nickel, a raw material used to make the alloy, the BIR said.
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1144.7 levels. If market breaches 1144.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 1160.8 and 1174.7;however if it holds back below 1114.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1100.8 and 1084.7
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1120-23 Target 1095 and 1080 SL 1138
Zinc
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -375 MT to 124400 MT
Nyrstar NV, the world's largest zinc refiner, said China's strongest earthquake in more than half a century had no impact on its operations in the country.
Vedanta Resources Plc, India's largest zinc producer, may say fiscal second-half profit fell 14 percent on lower prices for the metal and as its share of profit from its Indian unit was eroded.
ILZSG Data:
Zinc consumption dropped in the first quarter, widening a surplus of the metal from a year earlier, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.
Demand for the metal used to galvanize steel declined 0.4 percent to 2.767 million metric tons, the Lisbon-based group said today on its Web site. Zinc oversupply was 72,000 tons, up from 59,000 tons in the same period a year ago, it said.
from 59,000 tons in the same period a year ago, it said.
Declining prices for the metal because of the surplus in production are lowering costs for users such as ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker. Zinc has fallen 2 percent this year, extending a slump of 44 percent last year that made the raw material the biggest loser on the London Metal Exchange.
Demand fell 4 percent in the U.S., the second-largest user, to 262,000 tons. Germany, Italy and Japan, all among the top 10 consumers, also saw declining usage. China, the world's biggest purchaser, posted growth of 9.4 percent in the quarter.
Metal production totaled 2.839 million tons, compared with 2.837 million tons last year, ILZSG said.
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 98.8 levels. If market breaches 98.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 100.7 and 102.2;however if it holds back below 95.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 93.8 and 91.9
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Buy at 96 Target 98 and 100 SL 94.80
Lead
MCX Lead traded mostly down; movement was volatile as market traded in a broad range of 93 –98.20
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 825 MT to 61900 MT
ILZSG: The lead deficit shrank to 7,000 tons, from 38,000 tons. Metal production increased 1.2 percent to 1.986 million tons and consumption declined 0.4 percent to 1.993 million tons. Lead for delivery in three months has lost 12 percent this year, the most on the LME.
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 93.6 If market breaches below 93.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 90.7 and 88.4;However if it holds back above 98.8 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 101.1 and 104.0
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 97 target 95 and 93.5 SL 98.20
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded strong towards high of 123.35 following LME and other metals, movement remained in tight range of 121.30 – 123.35
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was -1425 MT to 1032375 MT
Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-biggest aluminum producer, deepened output cuts at its New Zealand smelter to conserve dwindling hydroelectric reserves.
United Co. Rusal, the world's biggest aluminum producer, will spend $700 million to build and equip the Taishet Aluminum plant in Russia's Irkutsk region near China, the largest user of the metal.
Metals output from China, the world's largest consumer, rose in April from a month ago as producers ramped up production to meet demand in the high-production season in spring. Output of alumina, a raw material, declined.
Production of alumina, a raw material used in making aluminum, declined 9 percent from March. Some of China's major alumina producers, excluding Aluminum Corp. of China, cut output last month to prevent a decline in prices, according to an e- mailed report from Macquarie Group Ltd.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123.8 levels. If market breaches 123.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.6 and 125.9, however if it holds back below 121.8 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.5 and 119.7
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 122 Target 124 and 126 SL at 120.5
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
15 May 2008 09:52:56
Major Headlines:
Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. supplies of distillate fuels, including diesel, raised more than forecast.
Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, is scheduled to increase daily crude exports by 12 percent in June as companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. resume production after militant attacks, it pumped 2.46 million barrels a day of oil in 2006, according to BP Plc's Statistical Review of World Energy.
OPEC will have to cut output of lower-quality grades because of weak demand, Iran's OPEC governor said, Iran is holding 20 million barrels of crude oil on tankers, about five days of production, people familiar with the situation said last week. Iran’s oil includes some of the heaviest and most sulfurous grades sold, making them less desired by refiners
Russia, the world's biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, may increase crude production by 67 million tons a year, or 1.3 million barrels a day, by 2015, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said yesterday
U.S. fuel consumption fell 2.4 percent in the first four months of 2008 compared with the same period a year earlier, the American Petroleum Institute said, Consumers are reacting to higher prices by reducing demand for gasoline and other fuels
OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, refrained from officially raising or lowering oil output targets at its past three meetings on March 5, Feb. 1 and Dec.5, saying supply was adequate. OPEC oil ministers have so far been adamant there is no need for any change in official policy before the next scheduled gathering in Vienna on Sept. 9.
U.S. natural gas rose to the highest since December 2005 after Enterprise Products Partners LP delayed resumption of a pipeline.
Natural gas in New York has gained about 21 percent since Independence ceased shipments to the U.S. mainland on April 9 because of the reduced output and higher crude oil prices. Crude has risen 16 percent since the Independence outage. The delay at Independence combined with record prices for crude and heating oil will likely keep gas moving higher
MCX Crude Oil June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5293 levels. If market breaches 5293 may see prices to take further upside towards 5357 and 5393 however if it holds back below 5193 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5157and 5093
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5190 Target 5250 and 5315 Stop loss 5145
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 491.00 levels. If market breaches 491.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 498.00 and 507.50 however if it holds back below 474.50 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 465.00 and 458.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 491 Target 496 and 501 Stop loss at 487
MCXARUN
9994500540
15 May 2008 09:52:56
Major Headlines:
Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. supplies of distillate fuels, including diesel, raised more than forecast.
Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, is scheduled to increase daily crude exports by 12 percent in June as companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. resume production after militant attacks, it pumped 2.46 million barrels a day of oil in 2006, according to BP Plc's Statistical Review of World Energy.
OPEC will have to cut output of lower-quality grades because of weak demand, Iran's OPEC governor said, Iran is holding 20 million barrels of crude oil on tankers, about five days of production, people familiar with the situation said last week. Iran’s oil includes some of the heaviest and most sulfurous grades sold, making them less desired by refiners
Russia, the world's biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, may increase crude production by 67 million tons a year, or 1.3 million barrels a day, by 2015, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said yesterday
U.S. fuel consumption fell 2.4 percent in the first four months of 2008 compared with the same period a year earlier, the American Petroleum Institute said, Consumers are reacting to higher prices by reducing demand for gasoline and other fuels
OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, refrained from officially raising or lowering oil output targets at its past three meetings on March 5, Feb. 1 and Dec.5, saying supply was adequate. OPEC oil ministers have so far been adamant there is no need for any change in official policy before the next scheduled gathering in Vienna on Sept. 9.
U.S. natural gas rose to the highest since December 2005 after Enterprise Products Partners LP delayed resumption of a pipeline.
Natural gas in New York has gained about 21 percent since Independence ceased shipments to the U.S. mainland on April 9 because of the reduced output and higher crude oil prices. Crude has risen 16 percent since the Independence outage. The delay at Independence combined with record prices for crude and heating oil will likely keep gas moving higher
MCX Crude Oil June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5293 levels. If market breaches 5293 may see prices to take further upside towards 5357 and 5393 however if it holds back below 5193 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5157and 5093
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5190 Target 5250 and 5315 Stop loss 5145
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 491.00 levels. If market breaches 491.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 498.00 and 507.50 however if it holds back below 474.50 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 465.00 and 458.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 491 Target 496 and 501 Stop loss at 487
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
15 May 2008 09:49:42
Indian spot gold closed lower on Wednesday, tracking international bullion markets amid moderate domestic demand and traders are expecting a correction in oil prices, which will bring down prices of gold, which is used as a hedge against inflation
The stronger dollar is keeping gold lower and its fall third day as the dollar rose against the euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against declines in the U.S. currency. Platinum and silver also dropped. Bullion has moved in the opposite direction to the dollar this year, gaining 4 percent as the currency declined 6 percent against the euro.
There's no buying interest in gold at the moment, the consumer price index rose 3.9 percent compare to previous of 4 percent in the 12 months ended in April, the Labor Department said yesterday. Gold rallied 31 percent last year as soaring fuel expenses helped spur a 4.1 percent jump in consumer prices. The metal is still down 16 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March17.
Workers at a mine owned by Harmony Gold Mining Co.,Africa's third-biggest gold producer, ended a protest after earlier refusing to go underground because of excessive heat. Almost 1,000 workers at one of theVirginia mine's five shafts had refused to go underground because of heat and ventilation problems,
India's rupee fell to the lowest level since April 2007 on speculation record crude oil prices will widen the nation's trade and current-account deficits, increasing demand for foreign currencies.
The rupee declined for a third day as local refiners increased dollar purchases to pay for imports of crude, which reached an all-time high of $126.98 a barrel in New York Tuesday. The currency also weakened after data from India's capital markets regulator showed overseas investors added to sales of local equities
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the consumer price index was up .2% in April and up 3.9% from a year ago, a little less than expected. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .1% in April and up 2.3% from a year ago. The June U.S. T-bonds is steady to higher.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was up 2.9% last week, helped by refinancing activity.
Currencies update:
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate for January to March remained at 5.2%, the same as three months ago. Also in January to March, 84,000 full-time jobs and 33,000 part-time jobs were added. The June British pound is steady.
Industrial production in the Euro area 15 was down .2% in March after a gain of .3% in February.
Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that hourly wages were up .9% in the first quarter of 2008, less than expected. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11775 if market breaches below11775 may see prices to take further correction towards11729 and 11663 however if it holds back above11887 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11953 and 11999
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 11875 Target 11780 and 11710 Stoploss at 11925
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at22816 if market breaches below22816 may see prices to take further correction towards22682 and 22424 however if it holds back above23208 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23466 and 23600
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23180 Target 22880 and 22650 Stop loss at 23390
MCXARUN
9994500540
15 May 2008 09:49:42
Indian spot gold closed lower on Wednesday, tracking international bullion markets amid moderate domestic demand and traders are expecting a correction in oil prices, which will bring down prices of gold, which is used as a hedge against inflation
The stronger dollar is keeping gold lower and its fall third day as the dollar rose against the euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against declines in the U.S. currency. Platinum and silver also dropped. Bullion has moved in the opposite direction to the dollar this year, gaining 4 percent as the currency declined 6 percent against the euro.
There's no buying interest in gold at the moment, the consumer price index rose 3.9 percent compare to previous of 4 percent in the 12 months ended in April, the Labor Department said yesterday. Gold rallied 31 percent last year as soaring fuel expenses helped spur a 4.1 percent jump in consumer prices. The metal is still down 16 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March17.
Workers at a mine owned by Harmony Gold Mining Co.,Africa's third-biggest gold producer, ended a protest after earlier refusing to go underground because of excessive heat. Almost 1,000 workers at one of theVirginia mine's five shafts had refused to go underground because of heat and ventilation problems,
India's rupee fell to the lowest level since April 2007 on speculation record crude oil prices will widen the nation's trade and current-account deficits, increasing demand for foreign currencies.
The rupee declined for a third day as local refiners increased dollar purchases to pay for imports of crude, which reached an all-time high of $126.98 a barrel in New York Tuesday. The currency also weakened after data from India's capital markets regulator showed overseas investors added to sales of local equities
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that the consumer price index was up .2% in April and up 3.9% from a year ago, a little less than expected. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .1% in April and up 2.3% from a year ago. The June U.S. T-bonds is steady to higher.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was up 2.9% last week, helped by refinancing activity.
Currencies update:
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate for January to March remained at 5.2%, the same as three months ago. Also in January to March, 84,000 full-time jobs and 33,000 part-time jobs were added. The June British pound is steady.
Industrial production in the Euro area 15 was down .2% in March after a gain of .3% in February.
Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that hourly wages were up .9% in the first quarter of 2008, less than expected. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11775 if market breaches below11775 may see prices to take further correction towards11729 and 11663 however if it holds back above11887 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11953 and 11999
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 11875 Target 11780 and 11710 Stoploss at 11925
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at22816 if market breaches below22816 may see prices to take further correction towards22682 and 22424 however if it holds back above23208 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 23466 and 23600
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23180 Target 22880 and 22650 Stop loss at 23390
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Metals are tracking the US dollar and nothing else. They sold off yesterday after the inability to rise resulted in profit taking and short sellers coming to picture. If global equities rise further and the US dollar gains over the coming weeks then gold and silver will be affected more in a negative way than other commodities. The prime reason being that short term traders consider gold and the US dollar are alternate investments. Silver will be more volatile as it gets caught between base metals and precious metals. Silver will fall if and only if gold falls and most of the base metals also fall.
Base metals will be volatile unless the exact effects Chinese quake are known. Lead and zinc should trade with a softer bias in the medium term as investors use rises to exit longs and medium term investors shy away from these metals. In 2007 between last week of May and early June nickel formed a top and thereafter crashed. In 2008 it’s just the reverse as Nickel is near the lows but still above 2006 lows. In the medium term as long as LME Nickel (3 months) holds $23200 downside will be limited. One needs to wait for a bottom in Nickel and then invest.
The Bank of England has said that it may not cut interest rates for two years due to higher inflationary pressures even as the sterling finds sellers at higher prices. The US dollar is being supported by expectations the worst in US economy is over while for others the same is yet to come. One needs to use a wait and watch for the US dollar for the next few trading session before making the next move as there could be wild intraday swings. If crude oil prices fall then the US dollar will get a boost. So far crude oil prices have remained immune to US dollar gains.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1722.0
If silver fails to close over $1754 for the rest of the month then it will fall to $1544.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals will be volatile unless the exact effects Chinese quake are known. Lead and zinc should trade with a softer bias in the medium term as investors use rises to exit longs and medium term investors shy away from these metals. In 2007 between last week of May and early June nickel formed a top and thereafter crashed. In 2008 it’s just the reverse as Nickel is near the lows but still above 2006 lows. In the medium term as long as LME Nickel (3 months) holds $23200 downside will be limited. One needs to wait for a bottom in Nickel and then invest.
The Bank of England has said that it may not cut interest rates for two years due to higher inflationary pressures even as the sterling finds sellers at higher prices. The US dollar is being supported by expectations the worst in US economy is over while for others the same is yet to come. One needs to use a wait and watch for the US dollar for the next few trading session before making the next move as there could be wild intraday swings. If crude oil prices fall then the US dollar will get a boost. So far crude oil prices have remained immune to US dollar gains.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1722.0
If silver fails to close over $1754 for the rest of the month then it will fall to $1544.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
energy intrday
Energy
Major Headlines:
Heating oil futures rose to a record inNew York after a report showed declining world inventories, Gasoline futures also advanced to an all-time high, following gains in other energy markets. Supplies of middle distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, dropped 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency,
Crude prices continue its slide as investors started realizing that prices have climbed too fast and the market is overbought. In addition to investors fleeing the market as they figured prices would start dipping was that inventories in the US were predicted to have increased.
Oil prices were also moving in line with changes in the U.S. dollar, but that connection has weakened in recent days. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro in April but has regained ground since then, a weaker greenback makes dollar-priced crude more affordable for holders of stronger currencies.
The IEA, an energy adviser to 27 nations, said global oil supply averaged 86.8 million barrels a day in April, down 400,000 barrels from March. The IEA cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand by about 390,000 barrels a day to 86.84 million barrels. It was the fourth-straight monthly decline.
Demand in bothChina and theMiddle East will rise 4.9 percent, more than making up for a drop in consumption fromNorth America andEurope, the agency said.
OPEC doesn't need to meet before September because crude oil prices are ``fair'',Iran's Oil Ministry news agency said yesterday, citing the country's oil minister. Oil prices may reach $200 a barrel if existing conditions in the market continued,Iran is producing 4.17 million barrels of oil a day and exports 2.5 million barrels daily,
Natural gas inNew York advanced as heating oil and crude surged to records. Global supplies of middle distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, probably dropped 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, according to the IEA report.
Utilities and large industrial consumers build gas stockpiles during the summer to meet their needs during winter when demand outstrips production. Hot weather can limit injections by spurring electricity demand from gas-fired power plants to run air conditioners, prompting prices to rise on competition for supplies
TheAtlantic Ocean hurricane season starts June 1. Storms that cut through theGulf of Mexico can disrupt gas production from the region.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5366 levels. If market breaches 5366 may see prices to take further upside towards5432 and 5525 however if it holds back below 5207 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at5114 and 5048
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 5245 Target 5310 and 5375 Stop loss 5195
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 491.00 levels. If market breaches 491.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 498.00 and 507.50 however if it holds back below 474.50 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 465.00 and 458.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 479 Target 486 and 491 Stop loss at 475
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
Heating oil futures rose to a record inNew York after a report showed declining world inventories, Gasoline futures also advanced to an all-time high, following gains in other energy markets. Supplies of middle distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, dropped 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency,
Crude prices continue its slide as investors started realizing that prices have climbed too fast and the market is overbought. In addition to investors fleeing the market as they figured prices would start dipping was that inventories in the US were predicted to have increased.
Oil prices were also moving in line with changes in the U.S. dollar, but that connection has weakened in recent days. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro in April but has regained ground since then, a weaker greenback makes dollar-priced crude more affordable for holders of stronger currencies.
The IEA, an energy adviser to 27 nations, said global oil supply averaged 86.8 million barrels a day in April, down 400,000 barrels from March. The IEA cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand by about 390,000 barrels a day to 86.84 million barrels. It was the fourth-straight monthly decline.
Demand in bothChina and theMiddle East will rise 4.9 percent, more than making up for a drop in consumption fromNorth America andEurope, the agency said.
OPEC doesn't need to meet before September because crude oil prices are ``fair'',Iran's Oil Ministry news agency said yesterday, citing the country's oil minister. Oil prices may reach $200 a barrel if existing conditions in the market continued,Iran is producing 4.17 million barrels of oil a day and exports 2.5 million barrels daily,
Natural gas inNew York advanced as heating oil and crude surged to records. Global supplies of middle distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, probably dropped 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, according to the IEA report.
Utilities and large industrial consumers build gas stockpiles during the summer to meet their needs during winter when demand outstrips production. Hot weather can limit injections by spurring electricity demand from gas-fired power plants to run air conditioners, prompting prices to rise on competition for supplies
TheAtlantic Ocean hurricane season starts June 1. Storms that cut through theGulf of Mexico can disrupt gas production from the region.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5366 levels. If market breaches 5366 may see prices to take further upside towards5432 and 5525 however if it holds back below 5207 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at5114 and 5048
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 5245 Target 5310 and 5375 Stop loss 5195
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 491.00 levels. If market breaches 491.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 498.00 and 507.50 however if it holds back below 474.50 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 465.00 and 458.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 479 Target 486 and 491 Stop loss at 475
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
Gold futures are coming off sharply as the dollar rises in reaction to retail sales figures that, while off overall, showed demand climbed in many sectors, Profit taking is also weakening the metal in an atmosphere already dampened by sluggish jewelry and Indian demand reflective of recently higher prices, and the recent stabilization in the equities markets has taken some of the oomph out of the yellow metal.
The Euro system's reserves of gold and gold receivables fell EUR15 million to EUR209.628 billion in the week ended May 9, the European Central Bank said Tuesday.
Gold dropped the most in two weeks as the dollar rebounded against the euro, curbing demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also fell. The dollar gained as much as 0.8 percent on signals theU.S. economy is weathering the housing slump
Interest-rate futures indicate a 94 percent chance the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at its next policy meeting on June 25. That compares with a 10 percent chance a month ago. The Fed cut borrowing costs by 3 percentage points to 2.25 percent from Sept. 18 to March 18. Gold jumped 39 percent in that period, while the euro climbed 12 percent.
Jewellery exports fromIndia, the world's largest producer, rose 31 percent in last month because of an increase in sales of diamonds. Overseas sales rose to $1.74 billion from $1.33 billion a year earlier, Sales of cut and polished diamonds jumped 42.5 percent to $1.24 billion, the council said. Gold jewellery sales fell 6.5 percent to $360 million, while shipments of colored gemstones rose 4 percent to $16.14 million, according to the council.
Gold jewellery sales fell 6.5 percent to $360 million, while shipments of colored gemstones rose 4 percent to $16.14 million, according to the council.India exported gems and jewellery worth $ 20.9 billion in the year ended March 31. Imports of rough diamonds rose 23 percent to $993.5 million last month, according to the data.
Gold prices will trade in a range between $840/oz and $920/oz over the next month tracking movements in the euro against the U.S. dollar, However, the gold should hold above $840/oz but prices will not gain until late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter
The fundamental outlook for silver remains weak, particularly given the expectations for strong mine supply growth this year, Coeur D'Alene Mines (CDE) reiterated its silver production target of 16M ounces (up 39% on-year), the company confirmed its San Bartolome mine in Bolivia is in the final stages of start-up and is expected to deliver an impressive 6M ounces during the remainder of this year, and 9M ounces in 2009
StatisticsSouth Africa said that gold production was down 10.1% in the first quarter of 2008 from a year ago.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .2% in April, but up 2.0% from a year ago. Excluding autos, sales were up .5%, stronger than expected. The March Eurodollars are trading lower.
Turmoil in financial markets has eased somewhat, but the situation is still "far from normal," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. The central bank has taken a number of unconventional steps – especially since March, when the credit crisis intensified -- to help squeezed banks and Big investment firms overcome problems and try to get credit flowing more freely again.
Currencies update:
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices were up 3.0% in April from a year ago, up from a 2.5% gain in March and the most in six years. The June British pound is trading lower.
China's Statistics Bureau said that retail sales were up 22% in April from a year ago, a little more than expected.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11724 if market breaches below11724 may see prices to take further correction towards11617and 11504 however if it holds back above11944 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12057and12164
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 11900 Target 11810 and 11720 Stoploss at11945
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22695 If market breaches below 22695 may see prices to take further correction towards 22290 and 21830 However if it holds back above23560 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24020 and 24425
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23280 Target 23100 and 22850 Stop loss at 23440
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold futures are coming off sharply as the dollar rises in reaction to retail sales figures that, while off overall, showed demand climbed in many sectors, Profit taking is also weakening the metal in an atmosphere already dampened by sluggish jewelry and Indian demand reflective of recently higher prices, and the recent stabilization in the equities markets has taken some of the oomph out of the yellow metal.
The Euro system's reserves of gold and gold receivables fell EUR15 million to EUR209.628 billion in the week ended May 9, the European Central Bank said Tuesday.
Gold dropped the most in two weeks as the dollar rebounded against the euro, curbing demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also fell. The dollar gained as much as 0.8 percent on signals theU.S. economy is weathering the housing slump
Interest-rate futures indicate a 94 percent chance the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at its next policy meeting on June 25. That compares with a 10 percent chance a month ago. The Fed cut borrowing costs by 3 percentage points to 2.25 percent from Sept. 18 to March 18. Gold jumped 39 percent in that period, while the euro climbed 12 percent.
Jewellery exports fromIndia, the world's largest producer, rose 31 percent in last month because of an increase in sales of diamonds. Overseas sales rose to $1.74 billion from $1.33 billion a year earlier, Sales of cut and polished diamonds jumped 42.5 percent to $1.24 billion, the council said. Gold jewellery sales fell 6.5 percent to $360 million, while shipments of colored gemstones rose 4 percent to $16.14 million, according to the council.
Gold jewellery sales fell 6.5 percent to $360 million, while shipments of colored gemstones rose 4 percent to $16.14 million, according to the council.India exported gems and jewellery worth $ 20.9 billion in the year ended March 31. Imports of rough diamonds rose 23 percent to $993.5 million last month, according to the data.
Gold prices will trade in a range between $840/oz and $920/oz over the next month tracking movements in the euro against the U.S. dollar, However, the gold should hold above $840/oz but prices will not gain until late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter
The fundamental outlook for silver remains weak, particularly given the expectations for strong mine supply growth this year, Coeur D'Alene Mines (CDE) reiterated its silver production target of 16M ounces (up 39% on-year), the company confirmed its San Bartolome mine in Bolivia is in the final stages of start-up and is expected to deliver an impressive 6M ounces during the remainder of this year, and 9M ounces in 2009
StatisticsSouth Africa said that gold production was down 10.1% in the first quarter of 2008 from a year ago.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .2% in April, but up 2.0% from a year ago. Excluding autos, sales were up .5%, stronger than expected. The March Eurodollars are trading lower.
Turmoil in financial markets has eased somewhat, but the situation is still "far from normal," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. The central bank has taken a number of unconventional steps – especially since March, when the credit crisis intensified -- to help squeezed banks and Big investment firms overcome problems and try to get credit flowing more freely again.
Currencies update:
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices were up 3.0% in April from a year ago, up from a 2.5% gain in March and the most in six years. The June British pound is trading lower.
China's Statistics Bureau said that retail sales were up 22% in April from a year ago, a little more than expected.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11724 if market breaches below11724 may see prices to take further correction towards11617and 11504 however if it holds back above11944 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12057and12164
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 11900 Target 11810 and 11720 Stoploss at11945
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22695 If market breaches below 22695 may see prices to take further correction towards 22290 and 21830 However if it holds back above23560 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24020 and 24425
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23280 Target 23100 and 22850 Stop loss at 23440
MCXARUN
9994500540
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