Major US Economic Data
- The Institute of Supply Management said that its index of U.S. manufacturing increased from 48.3 to 48.6 in March, better than expected, but still a sign of contraction. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading lower.
- The U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.122 trillion in February, down .3% from January's pace and down 3.5% from a year ago. Private residential construction was down for the 24th consecutive month. May lumber is steady to lower.
Major Headline:
- Copper fell in New York as rising Asian stockpiles signal slowing demand from China, the world's largest user of the metal.
- Copper declined in Asia on increased concern that a U.S.-led economic slowdown will crimp demand for the metal used in wires and pipes.
- Economists are expecting a report this week to show the U.S. lost jobs for a third straight month in March, adding to evidence the world's largest economy has slipped into a recession.
- Mitsubishi Materials Corp., Japan's third-largest copper producer, will increase monthly refined copper output by 12 percent in the first half of this fiscal year.
- Production will rise to 29,056 metric tons a month in April-September, compared with 25,998 tons a year earlier, the Tokyo-based company said in a statement today.
- Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's largest nickel producer, will boost production of the metal by 18 percent to 36,000 tons of refined nickel in the fiscal year starting today, compared with an estimated 30,500 tons last year, the Tokyo-based company said in a statement.
- Aluminum price forecasts for the next three years through 2010 were raised by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s equity-research analysts including Christopher LaFemina as energy costs rose. Prices will average $1.30 per pound in 2008, compared with an earlier forecast of $1.25, the analysts said in a report dated today. They will average $1.25 next year and 2010, from previous estimates of $1.18 and $1.12 respectively. Energy accounts for about a third of the total cost of aluminum production.
- Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry Co., China's second-largest producer of nickel, said 2007 profit rose 86 percent because of higher product prices Net income increased to 827 million yuan ($118 million), or 0.50 yuan a share, from 444 million yuan, or 0.32 yuan, a year earlier, the Xinjiang province-based company said in a Hong Kong exchange filing today. Nickel is used to make stainless steel.
- China, the world's largest steel producer, has posted economic growth of more than 10 percent a year since 2003, fueling demand for steel used in cars, buildings and appliances.The Asian nation may increase output of stainless steel by 23 percent this year, Macquarie Group Ltd. said March 27. Sales rose 82 percent to 1.58 billion yuan, the statement said. Nickel for cash delivery averaged $37,088.67 a ton in 2007 on the London Metal Exchange, 54 percent higher than the average $24,155.32 a ton in 2006
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 334-333 Target 339 and 342 Stop loss at 327
MCX Zinc April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Buy at 92 Target 94 and 96 Stop loss at 90.80MCX Zinc April: Buy at 92 Target 94 and 96 Stop loss at 90.80 are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
MCX Zinc April: Buy at 92 Target 94 and 96 Stop loss at 90.80
MCX Nickel April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1190 Target 1155 and 1135 Stop loss at 1218
MCX Lead April
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Recommendations:
MCX Lead April: Sell at 112.50 Target 109 and 107 Stop loss 113.65
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Bullion intraday
Major Headline:
- Gold plunged below $900 an ounce for the first time in six weeks as mounting losses by banks in the subprime-mortgage market curbed investment in commodities. Silver also dropped.
- UBS AG reported an $11.9 billion loss in the first quarter, and Deutsche Bank AG will write down $3.9 billion in loans and asset-backed securities. The dollar jumped against the euro, and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index dropped for a third straight session.
- Gold reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17, while the euro, oil, corn and wheat climbed to all-time highs this year.
- Rising U.S. mortgage defaults have caused about $230 billion in credit losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide.
- Wide price fluctuations in precious metals have reduced investor demand, some analysts said. The historical volatility of gold futures, or the rate at which a price moves up and down, was 42 percent in the past 10 days, compared with 15 percent a month earlier.
- Some investors may be selling gold to purchase equities after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 9.9 percent in the first quarter. U.S. shares rallied today.
- Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has fallen 4.5 percent to 634 metric tons after reaching a record 663.8 tons on March 17.
US Economy:
- The Institute of Supply Management said that its index of U.S. manufacturing increased from 48.3 to 48.6 in March, better than expected, but still a sign of contraction.
- The U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.122 trillion in February, down .3% from January's pace and down 3.5% from a year ago. Private residential construction was down for the 24th consecutive month.
Currency Update:
- The unemployment rate in the Euro area (15) remained unchanged at 7.1% in February.
- Statistics Canada said that its index of industrial product prices was up .1% in February, but down .8% from a year ago.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, the highest rate in 12 years, even though they still expect inflation to remain high.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations - MCX Gold April: Buy at 11570 Target 11680 and 11720 Stop loss 11535
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 21900 Target 22300 and 22500 Stop loss 21675
MCXARUN
9994500540
- Gold plunged below $900 an ounce for the first time in six weeks as mounting losses by banks in the subprime-mortgage market curbed investment in commodities. Silver also dropped.
- UBS AG reported an $11.9 billion loss in the first quarter, and Deutsche Bank AG will write down $3.9 billion in loans and asset-backed securities. The dollar jumped against the euro, and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index dropped for a third straight session.
- Gold reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17, while the euro, oil, corn and wheat climbed to all-time highs this year.
- Rising U.S. mortgage defaults have caused about $230 billion in credit losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide.
- Wide price fluctuations in precious metals have reduced investor demand, some analysts said. The historical volatility of gold futures, or the rate at which a price moves up and down, was 42 percent in the past 10 days, compared with 15 percent a month earlier.
- Some investors may be selling gold to purchase equities after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 9.9 percent in the first quarter. U.S. shares rallied today.
- Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has fallen 4.5 percent to 634 metric tons after reaching a record 663.8 tons on March 17.
US Economy:
- The Institute of Supply Management said that its index of U.S. manufacturing increased from 48.3 to 48.6 in March, better than expected, but still a sign of contraction.
- The U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.122 trillion in February, down .3% from January's pace and down 3.5% from a year ago. Private residential construction was down for the 24th consecutive month.
Currency Update:
- The unemployment rate in the Euro area (15) remained unchanged at 7.1% in February.
- Statistics Canada said that its index of industrial product prices was up .1% in February, but down .8% from a year ago.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, the highest rate in 12 years, even though they still expect inflation to remain high.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations - MCX Gold April: Buy at 11570 Target 11680 and 11720 Stop loss 11535
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 21900 Target 22300 and 22500 Stop loss 21675
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4053 BEARISH BELOW 4037
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11610 BEARISH BELOW 11572
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 21946 BEARISH BELOW 21855
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 333.3 BEARISH BELOW 332.5
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 113.1 BEARISH BELOW 112.5
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1181 BEARISH BELOW 1174
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 92.2 BEARISH BELOW 91.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11610 BEARISH BELOW 11572
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 21946 BEARISH BELOW 21855
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 333.3 BEARISH BELOW 332.5
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 113.1 BEARISH BELOW 112.5
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1181 BEARISH BELOW 1174
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 92.2 BEARISH BELOW 91.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
A bad beginning to a hopefully another good quarter for gold and silver while base metals are consolidating at the moment. Energy prices continue to show no signs of a sustained fall. The fall in gold and silver are a part and parcel of a long term bull run rally and long term investors need not worry over their investments. In every market the speed of the fall is multiple times faster than the speed of the rise. The common denominator for the fall in commodity prices is the US dollar. The US dollar gained and commodity prices fell. Commodity prices will soon be delinked to swings in currency markets.
Gold and metals prices are bullish but will be very volatile in 2008 and over the coming years. Agro commodity prices will only rise as food security becomes a key issue for every country. Global population is on the rise. The lands which should have been used for growing crops are being used to expand cities or use it for bio fuels which give better returns. The overall area under food crop cultivation is falling every year. This will create severe supply shortages over the coming years with global warming adding to the woes. Take the case of rice, which is the stable food for almost everyone. Rice needs lot of water for cultivation, rice fields have to be water logged for days. Rainfall over the past few years has been skewed. Now a days it rains miserably for a few days. We get the whole months needed rain in a few days and thereafter rains are over. As a result rice and other crops production suffer. One needs to have a diversified portfolio between metals and soft commodities for better returns.
The Asian development bank has said that Asia’s growth rate in 2008 will be the lowest in the past five years. This puts a question mark over the Asian growth decoupling with US slowdown theory. Asian growth will be affected by the US economic slowdown and the decoupling theory may not work. It is for this reason that Asian stocks got hammered in the first quarter.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Long term bullishness is intact as long as gold floats over $828.30. In the short term gold will be volatile and will be looking to the US dollar for direction.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold and metals prices are bullish but will be very volatile in 2008 and over the coming years. Agro commodity prices will only rise as food security becomes a key issue for every country. Global population is on the rise. The lands which should have been used for growing crops are being used to expand cities or use it for bio fuels which give better returns. The overall area under food crop cultivation is falling every year. This will create severe supply shortages over the coming years with global warming adding to the woes. Take the case of rice, which is the stable food for almost everyone. Rice needs lot of water for cultivation, rice fields have to be water logged for days. Rainfall over the past few years has been skewed. Now a days it rains miserably for a few days. We get the whole months needed rain in a few days and thereafter rains are over. As a result rice and other crops production suffer. One needs to have a diversified portfolio between metals and soft commodities for better returns.
The Asian development bank has said that Asia’s growth rate in 2008 will be the lowest in the past five years. This puts a question mark over the Asian growth decoupling with US slowdown theory. Asian growth will be affected by the US economic slowdown and the decoupling theory may not work. It is for this reason that Asian stocks got hammered in the first quarter.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Long term bullishness is intact as long as gold floats over $828.30. In the short term gold will be volatile and will be looking to the US dollar for direction.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
SAFE TRADE
GOLD
book profit on sell below 12210/11950 in April, for the day sell below 11875 & more below 11825 S/L 11895 and T/p 11775-725/ upto 11650, sustain close below test 11825 test 11600 atleast in coming days upto 11500 OR sell ard 12090-95 S/L 12100 and T/p 12050-12000 (any time close above 12400/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 11825/11525/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit if sell on rallies, for the day sell only below 22075 S/L 22175 and T/p 21950-975/850/750, sustain close below 21975 test 21300 -21000 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 22815-30 S/L 22850 and T/p 22700-675/550 (any time close below 21975/21250/20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23425/24000/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L just click, but book profit on sell below 4150, for the day sell below 4010-4000 S/L 4025 and T/p 3960-70/3935/ 3910, sustain close below 3960 test 3925-3875 upto 3800 in coming days OR sell ard 4138-42 S/L 4150 and T/p 4100-4075 (now crude need to close above 4260-4315/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/ 3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 333-332.5 & more below 331.5 S/L 334.75 and T/p 329.5/326.5/324.5 OR buy abv 340 S/L 338.75 and T/p 342-343.5/uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 343.5/348/354 while close below 332.5/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on sell below 12210/11950 in April, for the day sell below 11875 & more below 11825 S/L 11895 and T/p 11775-725/ upto 11650, sustain close below test 11825 test 11600 atleast in coming days upto 11500 OR sell ard 12090-95 S/L 12100 and T/p 12050-12000 (any time close above 12400/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 11825/11525/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit if sell on rallies, for the day sell only below 22075 S/L 22175 and T/p 21950-975/850/750, sustain close below 21975 test 21300 -21000 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 22815-30 S/L 22850 and T/p 22700-675/550 (any time close below 21975/21250/20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23425/24000/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L just click, but book profit on sell below 4150, for the day sell below 4010-4000 S/L 4025 and T/p 3960-70/3935/ 3910, sustain close below 3960 test 3925-3875 upto 3800 in coming days OR sell ard 4138-42 S/L 4150 and T/p 4100-4075 (now crude need to close above 4260-4315/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/ 3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 333-332.5 & more below 331.5 S/L 334.75 and T/p 329.5/326.5/324.5 OR buy abv 340 S/L 338.75 and T/p 342-343.5/uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 343.5/348/354 while close below 332.5/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LONG VIEW
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11700/11600 UPTO 11550 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 11875-11825(JUNE)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22500 UPTO 22100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 22675, AND SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 21975 LEAD ONE MORE DOWN RALLY(MAY)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3870 UPTO 3800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 3960, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 4315-35 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
ABOVE 343/347 & 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 310 AGAIN TEST 300-295 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 11700/11600 UPTO 11550 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 11875-11825(JUNE)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22500 UPTO 22100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 22675, AND SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 21975 LEAD ONE MORE DOWN RALLY(MAY)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3870 UPTO 3800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 3960, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 4315-35 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
ABOVE 343/347 & 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 310 AGAIN TEST 300-295 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
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