GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

A bad beginning to a hopefully another good quarter for gold and silver while base metals are consolidating at the moment. Energy prices continue to show no signs of a sustained fall. The fall in gold and silver are a part and parcel of a long term bull run rally and long term investors need not worry over their investments. In every market the speed of the fall is multiple times faster than the speed of the rise. The common denominator for the fall in commodity prices is the US dollar. The US dollar gained and commodity prices fell. Commodity prices will soon be delinked to swings in currency markets.

Gold and metals prices are bullish but will be very volatile in 2008 and over the coming years. Agro commodity prices will only rise as food security becomes a key issue for every country. Global population is on the rise. The lands which should have been used for growing crops are being used to expand cities or use it for bio fuels which give better returns. The overall area under food crop cultivation is falling every year. This will create severe supply shortages over the coming years with global warming adding to the woes. Take the case of rice, which is the stable food for almost everyone. Rice needs lot of water for cultivation, rice fields have to be water logged for days. Rainfall over the past few years has been skewed. Now a days it rains miserably for a few days. We get the whole months needed rain in a few days and thereafter rains are over. As a result rice and other crops production suffer. One needs to have a diversified portfolio between metals and soft commodities for better returns.

The Asian development bank has said that Asia’s growth rate in 2008 will be the lowest in the past five years. This puts a question mark over the Asian growth decoupling with US slowdown theory. Asian growth will be affected by the US economic slowdown and the decoupling theory may not work. It is for this reason that Asian stocks got hammered in the first quarter.

GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE

Long term bullishness is intact as long as gold floats over $828.30. In the short term gold will be volatile and will be looking to the US dollar for direction.

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important tecnical charts

click the pics to large view






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SAFE TRADE

GOLD

book profit on sell below 12210/11950 in April, for the day sell below 11875 & more below 11825 S/L 11895 and T/p 11775-725/ upto 11650, sustain close below test 11825 test 11600 atleast in coming days upto 11500 OR sell ard 12090-95 S/L 12100 and T/p 12050-12000 (any time close above 12400/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 11825/11525/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit if sell on rallies, for the day sell only below 22075 S/L 22175 and T/p 21950-975/850/750, sustain close below 21975 test 21300 -21000 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 22815-30 S/L 22850 and T/p 22700-675/550 (any time close below 21975/21250/20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23425/24000/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

our S/L just click, but book profit on sell below 4150, for the day sell below 4010-4000 S/L 4025 and T/p 3960-70/3935/ 3910, sustain close below 3960 test 3925-3875 upto 3800 in coming days OR sell ard 4138-42 S/L 4150 and T/p 4100-4075 (now crude need to close above 4260-4315/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/ 3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day sell only below 333-332.5 & more below 331.5 S/L 334.75 and T/p 329.5/326.5/324.5 OR buy abv 340 S/L 338.75 and T/p 342-343.5/uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 343.5/348/354 while close below 332.5/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

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LONG VIEW

GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11700/11600 UPTO 11550 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 11875-11825(JUNE)

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22500 UPTO 22100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 22675, AND SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 21975 LEAD ONE MORE DOWN RALLY(MAY)


CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3870 UPTO 3800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 3960, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 4315-35 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
ABOVE 343/347 & 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 310 AGAIN TEST 300-295 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS(APRIL)

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outlook

June gold closed lower on Monday due to lower energy prices and end-of-quarter profit taking. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If June renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 968.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 951.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 968.90. First support is March's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at
897.80.

May silver closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.228 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.220 then the 25% retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support
is today's low crossing at 17.060 then March's low crossing at 16.725.

May copper closed slightly lower on Monday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.08. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last
week's rally, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
371.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 392.75. Second
resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.08. Second support is
the 25% retracement level crossing at 373.77.

May crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday due to end-of-month profit taking and closed well below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 103.97. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews last week's rally,
March's high crossing at 110.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing 98.65 would renew this
month's decline and could lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 94.17. First resistance
is last Thursday's high crossing at 108.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 110.35. First support is today's low
crossing at 100.25. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 99.77.

May Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off this month's low. Profit taking tempered early gains
and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 10.365 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.511 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 10.210 then March's high crossing at 10.365. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 9.689. Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 9.548.

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Energy intraday

Major Headline:

- Crude oil fell a second day on signs that slowing economic growth in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consuming country, will curb fuel demand. Oil prices continued lower as a reduction of tensions in the key Iraqi oil city of Basra helped eased supply fears.

- Fighting centred in the south of the country between Shia militias led by cleric Moqtada Sadr and Iraqi forces had contributed to oil's rally last week, as the southern port city of Basra is the conduit for the majority of Iraq's crude exports.

- Over the weekend, however, Moqtada Sadr ordered his Mehdi Army off the streets, reducing the risk to supplies. Reports from Basra have shown the Mehdi Army have disappeared from the streets today, signalling an end to the firefights which have killed more than 320 people since last Tuesday.

- Downward pressure is also being exerted by concerns over the strength of demand in the United States as the world's largest economy teeters on the brink of recession.

- American crude stockpiles have been rising in recent months, reducing market tightness. With seasonal demand lower in the second quarter and concerns a recession could further cut in to America's oil needs, some analysts think prices are ready to retreat from recent highs.

- Prices have been supported by ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, which makes commodities denominated in the U.S. currency cheaper for overseas investors.

- The dollar's steep slide has also seen speculative funds -- looking to hedge against weakness in the greenback and the recent widespread financial turmoil -- buy into the crude market.

- Long-term concerns about the ability of producers to meet booming demand from the developing world is also helping to lend a floor to prices, with many market watchers attributing crude's move above $100 to fears that supplies could fall short.

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4120 Target 4010 and 3960 Stop loss 4170


MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 397 Target 410 and 413 Stop loss 392

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Basemetals intraday

Major Headline:



- Copper dropped on the London MetalExchange, erasing an earlier advance.

- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said labor union workers at its Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia voted to end a monthlong strike that disrupted deliveries.

- BHP declared force majeure on deliveries from the mine last week after the strike, beginning Feb. 27, depleted stockpiles of nickel, used to make stainless steel. The price of nickel has risen 16 percent this year, partly because of the strike and on rising demand from China, the world's largest consumer of the metal used to make stainless steel.

- AES Gener SA, Chile's second-largest power company, signed supply contracts with copper-mining units of BHP Billiton Ltd.

- Minera Escondida Ltda. will receive 220 megawatts from a new coal-fired plant for 18 years and Minera Spence SA will get 90 megawatts for 15 years, Santiago-based Gener said in a March 29 regulatory filing.

- The metal also has gained this quarter as a slumping dollar increased demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. The U.S. currency is headed for its biggest quarterly drop against the euro since 2004.

- The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index has gained 16 percent in 2008, the most in at least a decade.

- Peru's copper production rose after February as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. increased output from its mine.

- Output rose 22 percent from a year earlier to 100,701 metric tons in February, the 13th straight monthly gain, after Phoenix- based Freeport completed an $850 million expansion at its Cerro Verde mine last year, the Energy & Mines Ministry said today in an e-mailed statement.

- Zinc output rose 6 percent, while silver rose 1.2 percent, lead rose 2.7 percent and molybdenum production doubled. Tin fell 3.3 percent and iron fell 9 percent.

MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Recommendations - MCX Copper April: Buy at 333 Target 342 and 346 Stop loss 327.80

MCX Zinc April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Sell at 94.50 Target 92 and 89.90 Stop loss at 95.60 are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

MCX Nickel April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1210 Target 1180 and 1165 Stop loss at 1233MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1210 Target 1180 and 1165 Stop loss at 1233



MCX Lead April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations: MCX Lead April: Sell at 114 Target 111 and 110 Stop loss 115.65

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