SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 895 UPTO $ 885 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 904
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, March 24, 2008
Gold Outlook
Spot gold prices rose moderately on Friday after falling steeply in the previous days. Dollar was relatively steady. Most of the world markets were closed on account of Good Friday.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar gained marginally from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
On Friday international spot gold traded in the range $911.00 - $919.90, and last quoted at $919.10 (909.60).
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $101.44 ($102.54) a barrel. US crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels to 311.8 million barrels in the week ending March 14, according to the latest update by US Energy Information Administration.
Flurry of gloomy economic data from the US continued, as the Commerce Department on Tuesday reported a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce on Monday.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $912.60 – $929.30 and closed at $913.80.
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 920; bearish below $ 914
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 12180-100/12000 mAX UPTO 11900 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 12320(APRIL)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 23450-23100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 23890, AND SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 23000 LEAD ONE MORE DOWN RALLY(MAY)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 4070-80 UPTO 4000-10 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 4130, ONLY CLOSE ABV 4335 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 12180-100/12000 mAX UPTO 11900 IN COMING DAYS WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 12320(APRIL)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 23450-23100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 23890, AND SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW 23000 LEAD ONE MORE DOWN RALLY(MAY)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 4070-80 UPTO 4000-10 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 4130, ONLY CLOSE ABV 4335 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
outlook
April gold closed sharply lower for the second day in row on Thursday and closed below the 25% retracement level of the 2007-
2008-rally crossing at 942.20. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 38%
retracement level crossing at 893.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 976.30
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 970.90. Second
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 976.30. First support is today's low crossing at 904.70. Second support is
the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70.
May silver closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at
17.731. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.634 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement crossing at 17.731 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is today's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at
16.585.
May copper closed lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 as
it extended this week's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at
344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 376.22. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 380.96. First support is today's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.54.
A short covering rally tempered some of today's decline and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this
week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing
106.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.55.
Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.07. First support is today's low crossing at 98.65. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline and closed above the 38%
retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 9.117. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing
at 8.732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.568 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.726. First support is today's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.732.
MCXARUN
9994500540
2008-rally crossing at 942.20. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 38%
retracement level crossing at 893.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 976.30
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 970.90. Second
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 976.30. First support is today's low crossing at 904.70. Second support is
the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70.
May silver closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at
17.731. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.634 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement crossing at 17.731 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is today's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at
16.585.
May copper closed lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 as
it extended this week's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at
344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 376.22. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 380.96. First support is today's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.54.
A short covering rally tempered some of today's decline and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this
week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing
106.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.55.
Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.07. First support is today's low crossing at 98.65. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline and closed above the 38%
retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 9.117. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing
at 8.732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.568 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.726. First support is today's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.732.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Last week’s fall in commodities prices is the next best thing to have happened for the long term sustainability of the commodity bull run. The rise was excessive. The fall is good reminder to the retail investors who kept buying at every decline that prices can fall sharply. It’s all about gravity. If you throw a ball in the air, the speed of the fall of the ball is always multiple times faster than the speed of the rise. The simple basic rule which more than eighty percent of the traders forget while investing and end up in the red and curse the market. The markets are not cursed, it is the investor/trader who is a curse to himself when he constantly makes trading losses. Why? My experience shows that in most of the loss making trades the trader must have been at a profit but he did not book the profits due to greed.
Last weeks fall happened in just ten to fifteen trading sessions in a year out of over one hundred and fifty trading session. But if you are caught on the reverse side on such trade and you sleep on the reverse trades, then you will be sleepless later on. “Sleep versus Sleepless” it is for you to decide. (Excerpts from the weekly report).
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE
Copper has to hold $347.90 on closing basis in short term to be in bullish zone and target $370-$385 once again.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
$95.48 should attract buying interest at lower levels. Resistance at $103.60 and $106.20.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Last weeks fall happened in just ten to fifteen trading sessions in a year out of over one hundred and fifty trading session. But if you are caught on the reverse side on such trade and you sleep on the reverse trades, then you will be sleepless later on. “Sleep versus Sleepless” it is for you to decide. (Excerpts from the weekly report).
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE
Copper has to hold $347.90 on closing basis in short term to be in bullish zone and target $370-$385 once again.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
$95.48 should attract buying interest at lower levels. Resistance at $103.60 and $106.20.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, March 20, 2008
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