outlook

April gold closed sharply lower for the second day in row on Thursday and closed below the 25% retracement level of the 2007-
2008-rally crossing at 942.20. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 38%
retracement level crossing at 893.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 976.30
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 970.90. Second
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 976.30. First support is today's low crossing at 904.70. Second support is
the 38% retracement level crossing at 893.70.

May silver closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at
17.731. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.634 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement crossing at 17.731 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 19.015. First support is today's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at
16.585.

May copper closed lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 as
it extended this week's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at
344.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 376.22. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 380.96. First support is today's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.

May crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.54.
A short covering rally tempered some of today's decline and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this
week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing
106.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.55.
Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.07. First support is today's low crossing at 98.65. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 98.33.

May Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline and closed above the 38%
retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 9.117. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing
at 8.732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.568 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.726. First support is today's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.732.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Last week’s fall in commodities prices is the next best thing to have happened for the long term sustainability of the commodity bull run. The rise was excessive. The fall is good reminder to the retail investors who kept buying at every decline that prices can fall sharply. It’s all about gravity. If you throw a ball in the air, the speed of the fall of the ball is always multiple times faster than the speed of the rise. The simple basic rule which more than eighty percent of the traders forget while investing and end up in the red and curse the market. The markets are not cursed, it is the investor/trader who is a curse to himself when he constantly makes trading losses. Why? My experience shows that in most of the loss making trades the trader must have been at a profit but he did not book the profits due to greed.

Last weeks fall happened in just ten to fifteen trading sessions in a year out of over one hundred and fifty trading session. But if you are caught on the reverse side on such trade and you sleep on the reverse trades, then you will be sleepless later on. “Sleep versus Sleepless” it is for you to decide. (Excerpts from the weekly report).

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE

Copper has to hold $347.90 on closing basis in short term to be in bullish zone and target $370-$385 once again.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE

$95.48 should attract buying interest at lower levels. Resistance at $103.60 and $106.20.

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here all the hit charts!!

CLICK THE CHARTS FOR LARGE VIEW












MCXARUN
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Gold target hit

this is our last day post, here for your verification, see today chart below
click the chart to large view


click the chart to large view


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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4204BEARISH BELOW 4185

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12400BEARISH BELOW 12333

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 24220 BEARISH BELOW 24100

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 327.10 BEARISH BELOW 326

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 115.40 BEARISH BELOW 114.80

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1196 BEARISH BELOW 1190

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 98.30 BEARISH BELOW 97.80

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Moving averages

Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
5 Day MA 984.90 19.890 1,995 482.40
10 Day MA 980.58 19.930 2,030 487.80
20 Day MA 971.25 19.590 2,103 516.33
30 Day MA 952.76 18.820 2,071 494.18
60 Day MA 918.55 17.380 1,841 437.07
100 Day MA 872.99 16.230 1,691 405.47
200 Day MA 783.79 14.590 1,504 380.42

MCXARUN
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Yesterday I had mentioned that investors should buy US dollar calls and precious metals puts. I was right. The US dollar gains and the fall in energy prices and metal prices is nothing but a technical correction which is a part and parcel of a long term bull run rally. Investors should get used to such movements and if they get scared, then the best place for them is the bond markets. Risk appetite has to be increased for both the investors and the day trader else stop losses will keep on getting hit.

Base metals get cranked up very quickly. Returns in base metals are high but so is the risk. It is the physical trader which tries to create an artificial shortage of the metal which in turn shrinks the LME stocks and prices rise. Retail investors think that whenever LME stocks fall that metal should rise and they end up doing a loss making trade. LME stocks are just manipulated by the base metals hedge funds and physical traders so that the end user buys at higher levels. They are not concerned over five percent intra day swings in base metal prices as long as medium term demand is high. Retail investors, if they are caught on the wrong side, exit only when they are unable to pay margin calls.

Looking at intra day LME inventories is not the correct way to trade.

We wish u all a very colorful holiday and happy Easter vacations. We will back on Monday. Day traders expect higher volatility to continue in metals and energies.

LME ZINC 3 MONTHS -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$2287

Only a break of $2476 will result in bullish zone else zinc will fall to $2200 and below in short term.

LME NICKEL 3 MONTH -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $28580

Nickel has to close over $28580 to be in a bullish zone and target $31000 and $32000 once again. A close below $28580 will result in a slide to $26280 and below.

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