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click the chart to large view
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Gold target hit
this is our last day post, here for your verification, see today chart below
click the chart to large view
click the chart to large view
MCXARUN
9994500540
click the chart to large view
click the chart to large view
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4204BEARISH BELOW 4185
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12400BEARISH BELOW 12333
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 24220 BEARISH BELOW 24100
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 327.10 BEARISH BELOW 326
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 115.40 BEARISH BELOW 114.80
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1196 BEARISH BELOW 1190
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 98.30 BEARISH BELOW 97.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12400BEARISH BELOW 12333
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 24220 BEARISH BELOW 24100
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 327.10 BEARISH BELOW 326
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 115.40 BEARISH BELOW 114.80
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1196 BEARISH BELOW 1190
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 98.30 BEARISH BELOW 97.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
Moving averages
Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
5 Day MA 984.90 19.890 1,995 482.40
10 Day MA 980.58 19.930 2,030 487.80
20 Day MA 971.25 19.590 2,103 516.33
30 Day MA 952.76 18.820 2,071 494.18
60 Day MA 918.55 17.380 1,841 437.07
100 Day MA 872.99 16.230 1,691 405.47
200 Day MA 783.79 14.590 1,504 380.42
MCXARUN
9994500540
5 Day MA 984.90 19.890 1,995 482.40
10 Day MA 980.58 19.930 2,030 487.80
20 Day MA 971.25 19.590 2,103 516.33
30 Day MA 952.76 18.820 2,071 494.18
60 Day MA 918.55 17.380 1,841 437.07
100 Day MA 872.99 16.230 1,691 405.47
200 Day MA 783.79 14.590 1,504 380.42
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Yesterday I had mentioned that investors should buy US dollar calls and precious metals puts. I was right. The US dollar gains and the fall in energy prices and metal prices is nothing but a technical correction which is a part and parcel of a long term bull run rally. Investors should get used to such movements and if they get scared, then the best place for them is the bond markets. Risk appetite has to be increased for both the investors and the day trader else stop losses will keep on getting hit.
Base metals get cranked up very quickly. Returns in base metals are high but so is the risk. It is the physical trader which tries to create an artificial shortage of the metal which in turn shrinks the LME stocks and prices rise. Retail investors think that whenever LME stocks fall that metal should rise and they end up doing a loss making trade. LME stocks are just manipulated by the base metals hedge funds and physical traders so that the end user buys at higher levels. They are not concerned over five percent intra day swings in base metal prices as long as medium term demand is high. Retail investors, if they are caught on the wrong side, exit only when they are unable to pay margin calls.
LME ZINC 3 MONTHS -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$2287
Only a break of $2476 will result in bullish zone else zinc will fall to $2200 and below in short term.
LME NICKEL 3 MONTH -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $28580
Nickel has to close over $28580 to be in a bullish zone and target $31000 and $32000 once again. A close below $28580 will result in a slide to $26280 and below.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals get cranked up very quickly. Returns in base metals are high but so is the risk. It is the physical trader which tries to create an artificial shortage of the metal which in turn shrinks the LME stocks and prices rise. Retail investors think that whenever LME stocks fall that metal should rise and they end up doing a loss making trade. LME stocks are just manipulated by the base metals hedge funds and physical traders so that the end user buys at higher levels. They are not concerned over five percent intra day swings in base metal prices as long as medium term demand is high. Retail investors, if they are caught on the wrong side, exit only when they are unable to pay margin calls.
Looking at intra day LME inventories is not the correct way to trade.
We wish u all a very colorful holiday and happy Easter vacations. We will back on Monday. Day traders expect higher volatility to continue in metals and energies.
LME ZINC 3 MONTHS -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$2287
Only a break of $2476 will result in bullish zone else zinc will fall to $2200 and below in short term.
LME NICKEL 3 MONTH -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $28580
Nickel has to close over $28580 to be in a bullish zone and target $31000 and $32000 once again. A close below $28580 will result in a slide to $26280 and below.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Base metals intraday
Major US Data:
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace. May lumber is steady.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
LME Inventory update (18 March, 2008)
alum 5000
coppe -925
nicke 420
lead 75
zinc -625
Major Headline:
· Copper output in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, rose 22 percent in December, the
Bank of Zambia said, without giving a reason for the increase.
· Output totaled 49,257 metric tons in the month, compared with 40,076 tons a year earlier, the Lusaka-based central bank said in a report today. Exports climbed to 49,745 tons, from 42,428 tons previously, it said.
· Cobalt production rose to 396 tons in December, from 234 tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 356 tons, from 274 tons, it said.
· BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said ``excessive and continuous'' rain in
South Africa is causing blockages to coal supply from its mines.
· BHP is ``seeking to minimize the impact'' on power utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. and export customers, spokeswoman Bronwyn Wilkinson said in an e-mailed statement today.
· Nickel rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three years in London on speculation demand
will expand as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster the U.S. economy. Tin rose to a record and copper also gained.
· Economic growth in emerging markets including China has underpinned demand for commodities, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Daniel Hynes said. The Fed will probably cut its benchmark rate
by at least 1 percentage point today to boost confidence in financial markets and revive the world's biggest economy, interest-rate futures show.
· Eskom Holdings Ltd., South Africa's state-owned electricity utility, said power cuts across the
country increased to as much as 3,000 megawatts as it struggles to get wet coal into its plants.
· U.S. copper futures traded tentatively higher early Tuesday, with stabilizing equity markets providing some relief to investors still trying to regain their confidence following Monday's sharp sell-off.
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Copper April: Sell at 336 Target 328 and 324 Stop loss 338.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Zinc March: Sell at 103 Target 98.60 and 96 Stop loss at 104.20
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1245 Target 1220 and 1205 Stop loss at 1267
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 114 Stop loss 120.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace. May lumber is steady.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
LME Inventory update (18 March, 2008)
alum 5000
coppe -925
nicke 420
lead 75
zinc -625
Major Headline:
· Copper output in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, rose 22 percent in December, the
Bank of Zambia said, without giving a reason for the increase.
· Output totaled 49,257 metric tons in the month, compared with 40,076 tons a year earlier, the Lusaka-based central bank said in a report today. Exports climbed to 49,745 tons, from 42,428 tons previously, it said.
· Cobalt production rose to 396 tons in December, from 234 tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 356 tons, from 274 tons, it said.
· BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said ``excessive and continuous'' rain in
South Africa is causing blockages to coal supply from its mines.
· BHP is ``seeking to minimize the impact'' on power utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. and export customers, spokeswoman Bronwyn Wilkinson said in an e-mailed statement today.
· Nickel rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three years in London on speculation demand
will expand as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster the U.S. economy. Tin rose to a record and copper also gained.
· Economic growth in emerging markets including China has underpinned demand for commodities, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Daniel Hynes said. The Fed will probably cut its benchmark rate
by at least 1 percentage point today to boost confidence in financial markets and revive the world's biggest economy, interest-rate futures show.
· Eskom Holdings Ltd., South Africa's state-owned electricity utility, said power cuts across the
country increased to as much as 3,000 megawatts as it struggles to get wet coal into its plants.
· U.S. copper futures traded tentatively higher early Tuesday, with stabilizing equity markets providing some relief to investors still trying to regain their confidence following Monday's sharp sell-off.
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Copper April: Sell at 336 Target 328 and 324 Stop loss 338.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Zinc March: Sell at 103 Target 98.60 and 96 Stop loss at 104.20
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1245 Target 1220 and 1205 Stop loss at 1267
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 114 Stop loss 120.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
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