Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
5 Day MA 984.90 19.890 1,995 482.40
10 Day MA 980.58 19.930 2,030 487.80
20 Day MA 971.25 19.590 2,103 516.33
30 Day MA 952.76 18.820 2,071 494.18
60 Day MA 918.55 17.380 1,841 437.07
100 Day MA 872.99 16.230 1,691 405.47
200 Day MA 783.79 14.590 1,504 380.42
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, March 20, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Yesterday I had mentioned that investors should buy US dollar calls and precious metals puts. I was right. The US dollar gains and the fall in energy prices and metal prices is nothing but a technical correction which is a part and parcel of a long term bull run rally. Investors should get used to such movements and if they get scared, then the best place for them is the bond markets. Risk appetite has to be increased for both the investors and the day trader else stop losses will keep on getting hit.
Base metals get cranked up very quickly. Returns in base metals are high but so is the risk. It is the physical trader which tries to create an artificial shortage of the metal which in turn shrinks the LME stocks and prices rise. Retail investors think that whenever LME stocks fall that metal should rise and they end up doing a loss making trade. LME stocks are just manipulated by the base metals hedge funds and physical traders so that the end user buys at higher levels. They are not concerned over five percent intra day swings in base metal prices as long as medium term demand is high. Retail investors, if they are caught on the wrong side, exit only when they are unable to pay margin calls.
LME ZINC 3 MONTHS -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$2287
Only a break of $2476 will result in bullish zone else zinc will fall to $2200 and below in short term.
LME NICKEL 3 MONTH -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $28580
Nickel has to close over $28580 to be in a bullish zone and target $31000 and $32000 once again. A close below $28580 will result in a slide to $26280 and below.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals get cranked up very quickly. Returns in base metals are high but so is the risk. It is the physical trader which tries to create an artificial shortage of the metal which in turn shrinks the LME stocks and prices rise. Retail investors think that whenever LME stocks fall that metal should rise and they end up doing a loss making trade. LME stocks are just manipulated by the base metals hedge funds and physical traders so that the end user buys at higher levels. They are not concerned over five percent intra day swings in base metal prices as long as medium term demand is high. Retail investors, if they are caught on the wrong side, exit only when they are unable to pay margin calls.
Looking at intra day LME inventories is not the correct way to trade.
We wish u all a very colorful holiday and happy Easter vacations. We will back on Monday. Day traders expect higher volatility to continue in metals and energies.
LME ZINC 3 MONTHS -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$2287
Only a break of $2476 will result in bullish zone else zinc will fall to $2200 and below in short term.
LME NICKEL 3 MONTH -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $28580
Nickel has to close over $28580 to be in a bullish zone and target $31000 and $32000 once again. A close below $28580 will result in a slide to $26280 and below.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Base metals intraday
Major US Data:
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace. May lumber is steady.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
LME Inventory update (18 March, 2008)
alum 5000
coppe -925
nicke 420
lead 75
zinc -625
Major Headline:
· Copper output in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, rose 22 percent in December, the
Bank of Zambia said, without giving a reason for the increase.
· Output totaled 49,257 metric tons in the month, compared with 40,076 tons a year earlier, the Lusaka-based central bank said in a report today. Exports climbed to 49,745 tons, from 42,428 tons previously, it said.
· Cobalt production rose to 396 tons in December, from 234 tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 356 tons, from 274 tons, it said.
· BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said ``excessive and continuous'' rain in
South Africa is causing blockages to coal supply from its mines.
· BHP is ``seeking to minimize the impact'' on power utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. and export customers, spokeswoman Bronwyn Wilkinson said in an e-mailed statement today.
· Nickel rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three years in London on speculation demand
will expand as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster the U.S. economy. Tin rose to a record and copper also gained.
· Economic growth in emerging markets including China has underpinned demand for commodities, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Daniel Hynes said. The Fed will probably cut its benchmark rate
by at least 1 percentage point today to boost confidence in financial markets and revive the world's biggest economy, interest-rate futures show.
· Eskom Holdings Ltd., South Africa's state-owned electricity utility, said power cuts across the
country increased to as much as 3,000 megawatts as it struggles to get wet coal into its plants.
· U.S. copper futures traded tentatively higher early Tuesday, with stabilizing equity markets providing some relief to investors still trying to regain their confidence following Monday's sharp sell-off.
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Copper April: Sell at 336 Target 328 and 324 Stop loss 338.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Zinc March: Sell at 103 Target 98.60 and 96 Stop loss at 104.20
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1245 Target 1220 and 1205 Stop loss at 1267
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 114 Stop loss 120.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace. May lumber is steady.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
LME Inventory update (18 March, 2008)
alum 5000
coppe -925
nicke 420
lead 75
zinc -625
Major Headline:
· Copper output in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, rose 22 percent in December, the
Bank of Zambia said, without giving a reason for the increase.
· Output totaled 49,257 metric tons in the month, compared with 40,076 tons a year earlier, the Lusaka-based central bank said in a report today. Exports climbed to 49,745 tons, from 42,428 tons previously, it said.
· Cobalt production rose to 396 tons in December, from 234 tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 356 tons, from 274 tons, it said.
· BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said ``excessive and continuous'' rain in
South Africa is causing blockages to coal supply from its mines.
· BHP is ``seeking to minimize the impact'' on power utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. and export customers, spokeswoman Bronwyn Wilkinson said in an e-mailed statement today.
· Nickel rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three years in London on speculation demand
will expand as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster the U.S. economy. Tin rose to a record and copper also gained.
· Economic growth in emerging markets including China has underpinned demand for commodities, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Daniel Hynes said. The Fed will probably cut its benchmark rate
by at least 1 percentage point today to boost confidence in financial markets and revive the world's biggest economy, interest-rate futures show.
· Eskom Holdings Ltd., South Africa's state-owned electricity utility, said power cuts across the
country increased to as much as 3,000 megawatts as it struggles to get wet coal into its plants.
· U.S. copper futures traded tentatively higher early Tuesday, with stabilizing equity markets providing some relief to investors still trying to regain their confidence following Monday's sharp sell-off.
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Copper April: Sell at 336 Target 328 and 324 Stop loss 338.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Zinc March: Sell at 103 Target 98.60 and 96 Stop loss at 104.20
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1245 Target 1220 and 1205 Stop loss at 1267
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 114 Stop loss 120.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Comex gold tecnical
Gold prices retreated on profit booking yesterday, as the Dollar rebounded from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
International spot gold traded in the range $1012.30 - $977.80 and last quoted at $981.50 ($1002.30).
Flurry of gloomy economic data from the US continued, as the Commerce Department on Tuesday reported a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce on Monday.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move on Sunday night cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Labor Department said on Friday the consumer price index was flat in February against the expectations of a 0.2 % increase.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
The Federal Reserve had announced new steps to boost liquidity in the banking system.
The Fed said it would increase the size of its emergency auctions by $40 billion, which means providing $100 billion to primary dealers in US Treasury debt. It also would start a series of term repurchase transactions with the primary dealers that trade securities directly with the Fed, expected to be worth a total of $100 billion.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $1012.30 – $997.80 and closed at $988.10 ($1006.70).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 996; bearish below $ 991
MCXARUN
9994500540
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
International spot gold traded in the range $1012.30 - $977.80 and last quoted at $981.50 ($1002.30).
Flurry of gloomy economic data from the US continued, as the Commerce Department on Tuesday reported a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce on Monday.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move on Sunday night cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Labor Department said on Friday the consumer price index was flat in February against the expectations of a 0.2 % increase.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
The Federal Reserve had announced new steps to boost liquidity in the banking system.
The Fed said it would increase the size of its emergency auctions by $40 billion, which means providing $100 billion to primary dealers in US Treasury debt. It also would start a series of term repurchase transactions with the primary dealers that trade securities directly with the Fed, expected to be worth a total of $100 billion.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $1012.30 – $997.80 and closed at $988.10 ($1006.70).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 996; bearish below $ 991
MCXARUN
9994500540
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