Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Energy intraday
Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Expectations:
· U.S. crude-oil inventories in the week ended March 14 probably rose 2.3 million barrels, according to the median of eight responses in a Bloomberg News survey. It would be the ninth increase in 10 weeks.
· Gasoline inventories probably fell 400,000 barrels from 236 million barrels the week before, according to the median of responses.
Major Headline:
· Crude oil rose in New York on speculation a likely U.S. interest rate cut today will drive the dollar down further, prompting investors to buy commodities.
· Oil retraced some of yesterday's 4.1 percent drop as the dollar fell for the fifth day against the euro. Traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by as much as 1 percentage point today.
· The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries shouldn't intervene to dampen prices,Qatar's Oil Minister said.
· Exxon Mobil Corp.'s freeze on $12 billion of assets belonging toVenezuela's state oil company was overturned by aU.K. court in a setback for theU.S. energy company in its dispute with President Hugo Chavez.
· Natural gas advanced, led by forecasts for colder weather in much of theU.S. for the next two weeks, and a rebound in crude oil.
· Below-normal temperatures will sweep into theMidwest and Northeast, the regions of highest gas consumption, by March 20 and intensify in the following week, MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather said. Oil gained, lifting gas, on speculation an interest rate cut expected today will weaken the dollar, encouraging investors to buy commodities.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4235 Target 4290 and 4315 Stop loss 4185
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas April:
come through SMS
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
Major Headline:
· Gold and silver gave up the gains that it had made up over the past couple of days following the fed interest rate decision.
· Fed funds futures was slashed only by .75BP instead of the 1% that was widely expected.
· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust surged 1.6 percent yesterday to a record 663.8 metric tons.
· Holdings in StreetTracks, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, now ranks eighth compared to central banks.
· TheU.S. holds the most gold, with 8,133.5 metric tons in its reserves, according to data from the producer-funded World Gold Council.
· World gold-mine production declined 1.4 percent last year to 2,444 metric tons, an 11-year low, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd.
US Economy:
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
· Both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers showed earnings in the first quarter of 2008 down from a year ago, but better than expected - fairly impressive in light of yesterday's meltdown of Bear Stearns.
Currency Update:
· Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.8% in February from a year ago, down from a 2.2% gain in January. The core measure of inflation was up 1.5% from a year ago. The June Canadian dollar is trading higher.
· The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices were up 2.5% in February from a year ago, up from a 2.2% gain in January. February's increase was said to be due to a new way of calculating the index. There was no actual increase in prices. The June British pound is trading higher.
· China raised the reserve requirement for its banks from 15.0% to 15.5% as part of an ongoing effort to slow inflation.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy above 13065 Target 13230 and 13260 Stop loss at 13015
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy above 26000 Target 26550 and 26850 Stop loss 25915
MCXARUN
9994500540
Statement: 233443 - hichoice
t: 233443 Name: hichoice Currency: USD 2008 March 19, 06:48
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2109507 2008.03.04 10:08 balance Deposit 10 000.00
2147243 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 simay8 20.400 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 365.002147245 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 gold 987.00 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -380.00
2147246 2008.03.13 10:08 sell 1.00 ngapr8 10.050 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
2166804 2008.03.18 12:34 buy 0.00 ngapr8 9.230 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172029 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 simay8 19.927 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172030 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172031 2008.03.19 06:47 sell 1.00 gold 990.25 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -55.00
2172032 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 6 030.00
Closed P/L: 6 030.00
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 6 030.00 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 16 030.00 Equity: 16 030.00 Free Margin: 16 030.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2109507 2008.03.04 10:08 balance Deposit 10 000.00
2147243 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 simay8 20.400 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 365.002147245 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 gold 987.00 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -380.00
2147246 2008.03.13 10:08 sell 1.00 ngapr8 10.050 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
2166804 2008.03.18 12:34 buy 0.00 ngapr8 9.230 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172029 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 simay8 19.927 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172030 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172031 2008.03.19 06:47 sell 1.00 gold 990.25 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -55.00
2172032 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 6 030.00
Closed P/L: 6 030.00
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 6 030.00 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 16 030.00 Equity: 16 030.00 Free Margin: 16 030.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
OUTLOOK
April gold closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally and is trading below psychological resistance
crossing at 1000.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends
this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 972.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1033.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 986.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
972.00.
May silver closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.128 hinting that a double top with the
March 6th high might have been posted with Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 22.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Monday's high crossing at 21.440 then monthly resistance crossing at 22.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.800
then the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514.
May copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but remains
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.61. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.60. Second resistance is last Friday's high
crossing at 390.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 365.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at
358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.40 as it consolidated some of
Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. However, stochastics and
the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 103.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this
winter's rally, upside targets will be hard to project although, this winter's trading range projects a possible rally to the 113.20
area. First resistance is today's high crossing at 107.19. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 110.35. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.87.
April Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at
8.662 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.785. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9.064. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.662.
MCXARUN
9994500540
crossing at 1000.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends
this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 972.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1033.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 986.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
972.00.
May silver closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.128 hinting that a double top with the
March 6th high might have been posted with Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 22.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Monday's high crossing at 21.440 then monthly resistance crossing at 22.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.800
then the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514.
May copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but remains
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.61. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.60. Second resistance is last Friday's high
crossing at 390.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 365.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at
358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.40 as it consolidated some of
Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. However, stochastics and
the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 103.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this
winter's rally, upside targets will be hard to project although, this winter's trading range projects a possible rally to the 113.20
area. First resistance is today's high crossing at 107.19. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 110.35. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.87.
April Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at
8.662 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.785. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9.064. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.662.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Labels:
Base Metals,
Bullion,
Comex,
energy,
general market,
News,
outlook
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold, silver and copper fell after the Fed cut interest rates by 0.75% as the US dollar gained. In March, the US dollar has fallen too swiftly which contributed to gold and silver’s rise, so the fall was imminent. Gold had further gotten a boost from safe haven demand in the wake of negative sentiment for global stock markets. The Fed funds rate is at 2.25% and the Fed may cut interest rates by another 0.50% by next month end or even before then if the US economy deteriorates by then. After April, the Fed may not cut interest rates for the rest of the year, while other central banks may cut interest rates which will give the US dollar added advantage. Currency traders should buy some far dated US dollar call options on any weakness while precious metal traders should buy some near dated put options as a hedge against any price fall. Crude oil, I am not a bull and expect it to top out soon.
Trading volumes will fall from today as Easter starts. However it’s still not a time to sleep for the day traders or jobbers. Bid – Ask Spreads in MCX as well as Comex are on the higher side which is giving nightmares to the jobbers as his stop losses get triggered very quickly. As long as volatility remains high, bid-ask spreads as bound to remain high.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold can near $930 in the short term and yet maintain the bullish trend. Short Term resistance between $1020 and $1032.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading volumes will fall from today as Easter starts. However it’s still not a time to sleep for the day traders or jobbers. Bid – Ask Spreads in MCX as well as Comex are on the higher side which is giving nightmares to the jobbers as his stop losses get triggered very quickly. As long as volatility remains high, bid-ask spreads as bound to remain high.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold can near $930 in the short term and yet maintain the bullish trend. Short Term resistance between $1020 and $1032.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
For intraday traders
G-1002.40
S-20.12
C.oil-104.82
INR-40.66
USD-71.27
1g -1335
E-1.5777
Y-97.24
P-2.0028
MCX
G-13107
S-26189
Cr-4240
Cu-332.80
*HI-CHOICE-10.45 AM*
we are sending like this to your mobiles in every 10 miniuts,
you can find where market is going on,and we will give support prices like USD and important currencies like euro & pound
(18.03.08)
Trend
Gold:
994.50-1008.80;
Resist:
1026.60;
Support:
973.20;
Silver:
19.56-20.48;
Resist;
21.14;
Support:
28.89;
*HI-CHOICE*
this is intraday trend you can find important resist and support here every day before 9.30Am you will get that.
This week
Trend
Gold:Pivot-990.80
973.80-1020.10;
Resist:
1037.10:
Support:
944.50;
Silver:Piv-20.30
19.65-21.36;
Resist;
22.01;
Support:
18.59;
*HI-CHOICE*
this is week trend here also you will get important resist and supports here
you will get every monday this trend
if you want this service in your mobile contact
9364112225
9364151621
MCXARUN
9994500540
S-20.12
C.oil-104.82
INR-40.66
USD-71.27
1g -1335
E-1.5777
Y-97.24
P-2.0028
MCX
G-13107
S-26189
Cr-4240
Cu-332.80
*HI-CHOICE-10.45 AM*
we are sending like this to your mobiles in every 10 miniuts,
you can find where market is going on,and we will give support prices like USD and important currencies like euro & pound
(18.03.08)
Trend
Gold:
994.50-1008.80;
Resist:
1026.60;
Support:
973.20;
Silver:
19.56-20.48;
Resist;
21.14;
Support:
28.89;
*HI-CHOICE*
this is intraday trend you can find important resist and support here every day before 9.30Am you will get that.
This week
Trend
Gold:Pivot-990.80
973.80-1020.10;
Resist:
1037.10:
Support:
944.50;
Silver:Piv-20.30
19.65-21.36;
Resist;
22.01;
Support:
18.59;
*HI-CHOICE*
this is week trend here also you will get important resist and supports here
you will get every monday this trend
if you want this service in your mobile contact
9364112225
9364151621
MCXARUN
9994500540
our trade
Account: 233443 Name: hichoice Currency: USD 2008 March 18, 12:35
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2109507 2008.03.04 10:08 balance Deposit 10 000.00
2147246 2008.03.13 10:08 sell 1.00 ngapr8 10.050 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
2166804 2008.03.18 12:34 buy 0.00 ngapr8 9.230 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
Closed P/L: 4 100.00Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2147245 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 gold 987.00 0.00 0.00 1005.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1 868.00
2147243 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 simay8 20.400 0.000 0.000 20.281 0.00 0.00 0.00 595.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 -1 273.00
Floating P/L: -1 273.00
Working Orders:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Market Price
No transactions
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 4 100.00 Floating P/L: -1 273.00 Margin: 2 000.00
Balance: 14 100.00 Equity: 12 827.00 Free Margin: 10 827.00
4100$ profit in single trade in natural gas
mcxarun
9994500540
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2109507 2008.03.04 10:08 balance Deposit 10 000.00
2147246 2008.03.13 10:08 sell 1.00 ngapr8 10.050 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
2166804 2008.03.18 12:34 buy 0.00 ngapr8 9.230 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
Closed P/L: 4 100.00Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2147245 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 gold 987.00 0.00 0.00 1005.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1 868.00
2147243 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 simay8 20.400 0.000 0.000 20.281 0.00 0.00 0.00 595.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 -1 273.00
Floating P/L: -1 273.00
Working Orders:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Market Price
No transactions
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 4 100.00 Floating P/L: -1 273.00 Margin: 2 000.00
Balance: 14 100.00 Equity: 12 827.00 Free Margin: 10 827.00
4100$ profit in single trade in natural gas
mcxarun
9994500540
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