Bullion intraday

· Gold surged to a record $1,033.90 an ounce inNew York as credit-market losses and a weak dollar drove investors into the safety of the precious metal.

· The Federal Reserve cut the interest rate on direct loans to banks in an emergency meeting and stocks plunged worldwide after Bear Stearns Cos. accepted a buyout from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to avoid collapse. The dollar fell to $1.5903 against the euro, the lowest ever. Gold has jumped 21 percent this year as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen 13 percent.

· The Fed first reduced the so-called discount rate seven months ago from 6.25 percent as losses in the credit market mounted. After today's cut, the rate stands at 3.25 percent.

· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, was at 653 metric tons as of March 14. It reached a record 655 metric tons on March 10.

· Policy makers also have reduced the federal-funds rate five times since Sept. 18 from 5.25 percent to 3 percent. Interest- rate futures show an 86 percent chance the Fed will reduce the benchmark overnight lending rate to 2 percent tomorrow, compared with a 14 percent chance a week ago. The dollar has fallen 11 percent against the euro since mid-September while gold has rallied 40 percent. Banks have posted more than $181 billion in writedowns and losses related to the subprime-mortgage crisis.

US Economy:

· Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve reduced the discount rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, but made no change to the federal funds rate. They also created at new lending facility to provide short-term liquidity to investment banks. The White House scheduled a meeting today to discuss the financial markets and the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets tomorrow. The December eurodollars are trading higher.

· Bear Stearns shares closed at $30 after Friday's big drop, but over the weekend, JPMorgan bought the entire company for $2 per share with the approval of the U.S. government. Bear Stearns shareholders, understandably may not like the deal, but probably have no realistic alternative. That transaction will be debated for a long time. The June S&P 500 is steady to lower.

· The Federal Reserve said that industrial production was down .5% in February, weaker than expected and the biggest monthly drop since October.

· The New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing index fell from -11.7 to -22.2 in March, a new record low and a sign of further contraction.

Currency Update:

· StatisticsCanada said that factory sales were up 1.3% in January, helped by a 4.5% gain in auto sales.

· The June Japanese yen is trading sharply higher, benefitting from U.S. dollar woes andJapan's light exposure to the subprime mortgage mess.

MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy above 13165 Target 13230 and 13260 Stop loss at 13115


MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver May: Buy above 26300 Target 26650 and 26850 Stop loss 26115

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Safe trade

GOLD

book profit on buy abv 12810-15/835/ 875/12960/13050, for the day sell ard 13275-80 S/L 13290 and T/p 13200/ 13150 OR buy ard 12860-65 S/L 12850 and T/p 12900-920/upto 13000, sustain below 12850 more down side in coming days (any time close above 13400 bullish while close below 12850/12515/ 12375/12150/11875/11575-475/11300/ 10950-900/10500/10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit on buy abv 26050/26700/ 26850, for the day sell only below 25850 S/L 25925 and T/p 25775-700/25575 upto 25375 where might find support OR sell ard 26750-775 S/L 26800 and T/p 26600-525/upto 26300, sustain abv 26800 uprally again (any time close below 25875/25150-24850/23090/21990/ 21250/20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 4340/4360/4410 and sell below 4330, for the day sell below 4140 S/L 4165 and T/p 4100-4075 OR sell ard 4335-40 S/L 4350 and T/p 4310-4270/4250 (now crude need to close above 4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 4140/4070/3960/ 3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

we book profit on buy & sell last, for the day buy only abv 337 S/L 335.5 and T/p 339.5-340/342/344.5/346/348/ sustain abv 348 & 354 uprally test 362-67 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR sell below 328.5 S/L 330 and T/p 327 upto 324.5/322.5/more down rally (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

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LONG VIEW

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 1035-1045.... UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $ 990 IN COMING DAYS .... BUY AT EVERY DEEP WITH S/L $ 990

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 21.50-21.75/$ 22 upto $ 22.20 WITH ANY SUSTAIN CLOSE ABV $21.25... WHILE UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $ 20.20 UPTREND CONTINUE.... BUY AT EVERY DEEP WITH STRICT S/L $ 20.20

ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 134-35 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 127.25 & 130.25, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 120 TEST 117-15 ATLEAST(MAR)

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60 UPTO 365 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 332 TEST 325 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS

NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1460-90 ATLEAST WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 1380 & 1415, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 1235 TEST 1190-1200 ATLEAST

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 144-146 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 141, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 119.5 TEST 114-15 ATLEAST(MAR)

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4243BEARISH BELOW 4227

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 13160 BEARISH BELOW 13120

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 26400 BEARISH BELOW 26305

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 335 BEARISH BELOW 334

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 118.50 BEARISH BELOW 117.30

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1256 BEARISH BELOW 1249

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 102.30 BEARISH BELOW 101.90

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market outlook

April gold closed higher on Monday and above psychological resistance crossing at 1004.80 due to rising financial concerns and
the falling U.S. Dollar. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have overbought, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be
in or is near. If April extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 968.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 1033.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 983.20. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 968.70.

May silver closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.189 hinting that a double top with the
March 6th high might have been posted today. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but diverging hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this
winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 22.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 19.487 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 21.440 then
monthly resistance crossing at 22.51. First support is today's low crossing at 19.800 then the 20-day moving average crossing
at 19.488.

May copper closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.64 confirming that a short-
term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the
38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last
Friday's high crossing at 390.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is today's low crossing at
365.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 358.50.

April crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 106-72 signaling that a short-
term top appears to have been posted. Today's sell off was triggered by rising concerns over both the U.S. and world
economies, which could lead to lower energy demand. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If April extends this winter's rally, upside targets will be hard to project now that April has traded into uncharted
territory. Although, this winter's trading range projects a possible rally to the 113.20 area. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 111.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.48. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 98.87.

April Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Monday confirming last Friday's key reversal down and closed below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 9.075 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish with today's sharp decline signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 8.662 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.477 then the 10-day
moving average crossing at 9.782. First support is today's low crossing at 9.064. Second support is the 50% retracement level
of this year's rally crossing at 8.662.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The focus of the markets suddenly shifts from demand factors to supply factors and a subsequent correction in base metals and energies. Gold and silver fell on profit taking ahead of the Fed meeting. How come suddenly the focus shifts from demand factors as investors know that higher crude oil prices will in the medium term cause a slowdown in demand and that India, China and other emerging nations alone cannot cause a supply squeeze. It’s all about investment alternatives and base metals and energies attract investment interest only when there is no other place to invest. Base metals and energies will continue to be volatile for the rest of the March.

The Fed has been aggressively cutting interest rates over the past four months and the US dollar has declined substantially between two Fed meetings. Expectations for today’s interest rate cut vary from 0.50% to 1.00%. The Fed may cut one more time in April and thereafter pause. The US dollar will trade with a softer bias for another month or two (unless there are more Bear Sterns and Northern Rocks) and thereafter slowly and steadily start to gain. Precious metals have gained after the Fed meetings and it remains to be seen whether this time they will rise.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $365.70

Copper has to hold $365.70 on closing basis, or else a fall to $357 and below. Resistance at $380.10 and $387.40.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $103.80

$106 price target achieved. For the day crude oil is bullish over $103.80. Falls below $103.80 then $100.38 and $96.50.

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Gold outlook

Gold prices skyrocketed in early trade today, to record a fresh high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce, as the dollar tumbled after the Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move on Sunday night cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.



The emergency moves deepened investors’ worries about the state of US economy, and boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.



On Friday, international spot gold traded in the range $990.50 - $1007.10 and last quoted at $992.80.



Dollar was pulled down to a new all-time low versus the Euro. Adding to the pressure on the greenback, the consumer confidence in US recorded a drop. The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.



In a separate report, the US Labor Department said on Friday the consumer price index was flat in February against the expectations of a 0.2 % increase.



The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.



Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.



Positive economic data from the Euro-zone, according to which industrial production posted a 0.9% rise in January and 3.8% rise annually, added to the strength of the European currency.



The Federal Reserve had announced new steps to boost liquidity in the banking system.



The Fed said it would increase the size of its emergency auctions by $40 billion, which means providing $100 billion to primary dealers in US Treasury debt. It also would start a series of term repurchase transactions with the primary dealers that trade securities directly with the Fed, expected to be worth a total of $100 billion.



Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $991.90 – $1008.00 and closed at $1000.80 ($994.40).



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)



GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 1003.00; bearish below $ 998.00

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