Basemetals intraday

MajorUS Data:

· The US Labor Department stated that consumer inflation moderated in February that may compel Federal Reserve to keep on cutting interest rates to bolster U.S. economy’s growth. The prices also fell as supply worries eased as an OK Tedi mine strike in Papau New Guinea ended Friday. The strike resulted in a loss of 1,628 mt of copper.

Major Headline:

· Copper rose as stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell to the lowest in six months, spurring speculation supply will trail demand. Tin climbed to a record for a fourth consecutive day.

· Copper stockpiles slid 2,725 tons, or 2.1 percent, to 125,225 tons, the lowest since Aug. 23, the LME said. There will probably be ``a very substantial'' deficit in the first half of this year, Barclays Capital said.

· Though, the gains were restricted by increase in SHFE weekly copper inventories for another consecutive week. The copper prices dipped in line with weakness in the US, UK stock markets, later session’s ease in crude oil prices and following growing concerns about the weakening performance of the US economy.

· China's export growth may rebound after March, as factories shut during last month's snowstorms and Lunar New Year break resume production, Trade Minister Chen Deming said.

· China's industrial production grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in January and February as exports slowed, helping the government's effort to cool the world's fastest- growing major economy. China's economy, the world's fourth largest, grew 11.4 percent in 2007, the fastest pace in 13 years.

· The nation's investment demand has helped drive global prices of copper and iron ore to records. Inflation, already at the fastest monthly pace in 11 years in February, may overshoot the government's annual target of 4.8 percent.

· Producer prices, the cost of goods as they leave the factory, rose at the fastest pace in three years while retail sales surged the most in nine years, partly on rising prices. China's consumer price index soared 4.8 percent in 2007, compared with the 2.1 percent average in the previous four years.

LME Inventory update (14 March, 2008)

alumi 19275

copper -2725

nicke -132

lead 250

zinc 925


MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper April: Buy at 337 Target 343 and 349 Stop loss 334.50


MCX Zinc March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc March: Buy at 105 Target 108 and 110 Stop loss 103.10


MCX Nickel March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1300 Target 1328 and 1345 Stop loss 1289

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead March: Buy at 124 Target 128 and 130 Stop loss 122.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion intraday

· Gold surged to a record $1,009 an ounce in New York as the Bear Stearns Cos. bailout and a plunging dollar increased demand for the precious metal. Silver also gained.

· Gold futures for April delivery rose $5.70, or 0.6 percent, to $999.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached the highest ever for a most-active contract at 10:45 a.m., topping yesterday's record of $1,001.50. The metal has tripled in the past five years.

· Shares of Bear Stearns, the second-largest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, plunged as much as 53 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The Fed earlier this week said it would lend banks $200 billion in exchange for mortgage-backed debt.

· The StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, began trading in November 2004 and reached a record 655 metric tons on March 10.

· Compared with government holdings, the ETF would rank eighth behind Japan, according to data from the producer-funded World Gold Council. The U.S. is the biggest holder with 8,133 metric tons, or 78 percent of its currency reserves, in gold.

· Still, high prices may discourage purchases by jewelers, the biggest buyers. Jewelry demand dropped 17 percent in the fourth quarter following a 15 percent gain in prices in the previous three months, data from the World Gold Council show. About 68 percent of gold demand last year came from jewelers.

· Imports by India, the world's biggest gold buyer, plunged 81 percent to 10.2 metric tons in February from a year earlier, according to the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd.

MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 12960 Target 13100 and 13160 Stop loss at 12915


MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver May: Buy at 26640 Target 26950 and 27200 Stop loss 26410

MCXARUN
9994500540

Safe trade

GOLD

book profit on buy abv 12810-15/835/ 875, fresh buy abv 12960 S/L 12940 and T/p 13000 atleast upto 13050 OR buy ard 12730-40 S/L 12725 and T/p 12780-800/840, only sustain fall below 12515 & 12375 bearish rally (any time close above 12960 bullish while close below 12515/12375/12150/11875/11575 -475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit on buy abv 26050, for the day buy abv 26700 S/L 26600 and T/p 26800-850/27000/27150/new uprally OR buy ard 25730-750 S/L 25700 and T/p 25900-26050 upto 26200 (any time close below 25150-24850/23090/21990/ 21250/20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 26850/ 27150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 4340/4360, for the day buy only abv 4410 S/L 4395 and T/p 4430-60 upto 4495 OR sell below 4300 S/L 4320 and T/p 4280-50/4210/ 4180/60 (our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/ 4310/4360 in Mar contract) (now crude need to close above 4460 for bullish rally while close below 4150/4070/ 3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

we book profit on buy last, for the day buy only abv 343.5 S/L 341.5 and T/p 344.5/347-48/351/354/sustain abv uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days OR sell only below 334.5 S/L 336 and T/p 333.5-332/327 atleast upto 324.5/322.5/down rally (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/281/ 267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

click the picture to enlarge


click the picture to enlarge


MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion intraday

Major Headline:

· Gold futures hit $1,000 an ounce for the first time Thursday, pushed past the benchmark by the sinking dollar and record crude oil prices.

· The dollar fell below 100 yen during Asian trading Thursday, its weakest level against the Japanese currency in 12 years. The dollar also dropped to all-time lows against the euro.

· Disappointing U.S. retail sales data and more bad news from the financial sector pushed the greenback to new lows against several major currencies, dropping below 100 yen for the first time since 1995. The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against six of the world's major currencies, fell 0.8% to 71.85, and hit an all-time low of 71.795 in intraday trading.

· Gold also drew support from the recent spike in oil prices, which stoked inflation fears and prompted investors to buy the precious metal to hedge against inflation.

· The price still doesn't match the all-time high of $850 in 1980, if that price is adjusted for inflation. An $850 ounce of gold then would be worth $2,177 in today's dollars. The $1,000 an ounce price, though, is still a milestone and a telling sign that investors are continuing to abandon the dollar. Gold has been pushing up against the $1,000 an ounce mark for weeks, mainly because of the weaker dollar. Interest rate cuts - and the prospect of more on the way - have weakened the currency so much that foreign investors can buy dollar-based commodities like gold and oil more cheaply.

· The dollar's decline and the boost in the price of oil price merely added the extra push.

· The Federal Reserve's meeting next week could provide more encouragement for gold prices since the Fed is widely believed to be considering cutting interest rates again. Another rate cut could reduce the dollar's value further, making gold an even better investment.

· India spot gold hits fresh record highs, breaches 13,000-rupee mark, neither jewelers nor consumers are comfortable buying the yellow metal at such elevated prices levels, There was buying seen when gold corrected to 960 usd levels but demand has dived again


MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 12830 Target 12945 and 13050 Stop loss at 12795

MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver May: Buy at 26100 Target 26650 and 26790 Stop loss 25980


MCXARUN
9994500540

Energy intraday

Weekly Inventory Data:

· The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 86 billion cubic feet last week to 1.398 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 10% from a year ago.

Major Headline:

· Oil prices on Thursday hit a record high above $110 a barrel as investors fled the tumbling dollar that fell to new lows against the euro and a 12-year low versus the yen.

· The greenback's decline has played a role in a surge in crude futures, which have hit record territory in 11 of the past 12 sessions, despite the fact that crude supplies have risen 10.2 percent since early January.

· The euro rose as high as $1.5625 before falling back to $1.5592. InAsia, the dollar briefly slumped to 99.75 yen before creeping back up to 100.27 yen.

· Oil prices initially fell Wednesday inNew York trading after the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said crude supplies rose 6.2 million barrels last week, more than three times the 1.6 million barrels forecast by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But buyers quickly returned to the market.

· The EIA also reported that gasoline supplies rose 1.7 million barrels last week, well above the expected 300,000 barrel increase, and distillate supplies dropped 1.2 million barrels, less than the expected 2 million barrel decline.

· It was the eighth increase in crude supplies in nine weeks, putting oil inventories back on a growth track after a one-week decline. Meanwhile, forecasters including the Energy Department, the International Energy Agency and OPEC have consistently reduced their demand growth predictions for this year.

· Wednesday's EIA report offered more evidence demand is falling: Gasoline consumption fell 0.7 percent last week compared to the same week last year.

· Normally, gasoline consumption grows about 1.5 percent year-over-year, just to keep pace with population growth.

· Many analysts argue that current oil prices can't be justified by the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals. Yet evidence of weak demand amid growing supplies has not stopped oil prices from rising in the past, particularly when the dollar is falling.



MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4350 Target 4420 and 4445 Stop loss 4315

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 408 Target 416 and 419 Stop loss 404.20

MCXARUN
9994500540

Basemetals intraday

MajorUS Data:

· The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .6% in February, weaker than expected. Excluding autos, sales were down .2%.

· The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were unchanged last week at 353,000.

Major Headline:

· Copper, little changed in New York, may gain for the second straight day as a slumping dollar boosts the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.

· The dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time since 1995 and dropped to a record against the euro today. Copper, traded in dollars, surged 26 percent this year before today, partly on
demand for metals as a store of value.

· The prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs may continue to weaken the currency, Zeman of LaSalle said. Trading in interest- rate futures shows a 98 percent chance the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate to 2.25 percent in its next policy announcement on March 18.

· Copper pared earlier gains after a report showed U.S. retail sales fell in February, signaling the economic slump is worsening. The U.S. is the second-biggest copper user after China.

· BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia halted all deliveries after a 22-day
strike depleted stockpiles, a union official said.

· Union officials met with Social Protection Minister Diego Palacio after the company refused to hold talks, union President Roger Herrera said today in a phone interview from the mine in the northern province of Cordoba. The miners began striking Feb. 27 to demand increased hiring to replace employees who have left.

· Aluminum declined in London as stockpiles advanced to almost a four-year high, indicating weak demand in the U.S., the world's second-largest consumer and producer of the metal. Copper also fell. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose 23,775 tons, or 2.5 percent, to 987,325 tons, the exchange said in a daily report, the highest since June 17, 2004.

· Tin climbed to a record for a third day in London, leading gains in all metals, after China, the
world's largest producer of the metal, reported a drop in output.

· Tin production fell 16 percent in the first two months from a year ago, China's National Bureau of Statistics said today in a statement. The metal has advanced 21 percent this year as China and Indonesia restricted exports.

LME Inventory update (13 March, 2008)

alumi +23775

coppe -1025

nickel -54

lead -25

zinc -200


MCX Copper April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper April: Buy at 337 Target 343 and 349 Stop loss 334.50


MCX Zinc March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc March: Buy at 105 Target 108 and 110 Stop loss 103.10


MCX Nickel March

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1280 Target 1310 and 1330 Stop loss 1265

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead March: Buy at 124 Target 128 and 130 Stop loss 122.50

MCXARUN
9994500540