MajorUS Data:
· The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .6% in February, weaker than expected. Excluding autos, sales were down .2%.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were unchanged last week at 353,000.
Major Headline:
· Copper, little changed in New York, may gain for the second straight day as a slumping dollar boosts the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.
· The dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time since 1995 and dropped to a record against the euro today. Copper, traded in dollars, surged 26 percent this year before today, partly on
demand for metals as a store of value.
· The prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs may continue to weaken the currency, Zeman of LaSalle said. Trading in interest- rate futures shows a 98 percent chance the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate to 2.25 percent in its next policy announcement on March 18.
· Copper pared earlier gains after a report showed U.S. retail sales fell in February, signaling the economic slump is worsening. The U.S. is the second-biggest copper user after China.
· BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia halted all deliveries after a 22-day
strike depleted stockpiles, a union official said.
· Union officials met with Social Protection Minister Diego Palacio after the company refused to hold talks, union President Roger Herrera said today in a phone interview from the mine in the northern province of Cordoba. The miners began striking Feb. 27 to demand increased hiring to replace employees who have left.
· Aluminum declined in London as stockpiles advanced to almost a four-year high, indicating weak demand in the U.S., the world's second-largest consumer and producer of the metal. Copper also fell. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose 23,775 tons, or 2.5 percent, to 987,325 tons, the exchange said in a daily report, the highest since June 17, 2004.
· Tin climbed to a record for a third day in London, leading gains in all metals, after China, the
world's largest producer of the metal, reported a drop in output.
· Tin production fell 16 percent in the first two months from a year ago, China's National Bureau of Statistics said today in a statement. The metal has advanced 21 percent this year as China and Indonesia restricted exports.
LME Inventory update (13 March, 2008)
alumi +23775
coppe -1025
nickel -54
lead -25
zinc -200
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 337 Target 343 and 349 Stop loss 334.50
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 105 Target 108 and 110 Stop loss 103.10
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1280 Target 1310 and 1330 Stop loss 1265
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 124 Target 128 and 130 Stop loss 122.50
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Friday, March 14, 2008
outlook
April gold was higher overnight as it rebounds off support marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 978.40. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter's rally, psychological resistance crossing
at 1000.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high
crossing at 995.20 then, psychological resistance crossing at 1000.00. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 961.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10.
May silver was higher overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at
20.116 as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 19.169 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
May renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 21.340 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 20.570. Second resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 21.325. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.280 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 19.169.
May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 380.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 416.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.44. Second resistance
is last Thursday's high crossing at 402.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 375.00
then the reaction low crossing at 368.50.
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low into uncharted
territory, upside targets will hard to project. Although, this winter's trading range projects a
possible rally to the 113.20 area before a correction is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.20. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.24.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 10.185 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
9.392 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's
high crossing at 10.139. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 10.185. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.738. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.392.
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crossing at 978.40. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter's rally, psychological resistance crossing
at 1000.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high
crossing at 995.20 then, psychological resistance crossing at 1000.00. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 961.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10.
May silver was higher overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at
20.116 as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 19.169 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
May renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 21.340 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 20.570. Second resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 21.325. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.280 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 19.169.
May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 380.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 416.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.44. Second resistance
is last Thursday's high crossing at 402.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 375.00
then the reaction low crossing at 368.50.
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low into uncharted
territory, upside targets will hard to project. Although, this winter's trading range projects a
possible rally to the 113.20 area before a correction is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.20. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.24.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 10.185 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
9.392 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's
high crossing at 10.139. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 10.185. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.738. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.392.
MCXARUN
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4432BEARISH BELOW 4412
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12865 BEARISH BELOW 12822
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 26345 BEARISH BELOW 26240
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.60 BEARISH BELOW 338.60
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.60BEARISH BELOW 125.00
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1303 BEARISH BELOW 1295
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.95 BEARISH BELOW 104.40
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12865 BEARISH BELOW 12822
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 26345 BEARISH BELOW 26240
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.60 BEARISH BELOW 338.60
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.60BEARISH BELOW 125.00
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1303 BEARISH BELOW 1295
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.95 BEARISH BELOW 104.40
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Next week we have Easter Vacation and the Fed meeting. The Fed will not disappoint the markets and may cut interest rates by 0.75%. Trading volumes will fall next week. However the current market situation will prevent fund managers to be lazy as the market circumstances are changing every day. Some of the investment instruments have either hit historical highs or historical lows and investors asking themselves whether to exit the highs or invest in lows. For the rest of the March the US dollar and movement of US equity markets will be the key for almost all investments.
Some of the central bankers are continuously speaking on the higher volatility and dollar depreciation but do nothing. Markets have learned to live with the comments from various central banks over the pace of the US dollars depreciation and they will not get unnerved by the same as they know that central bankers will do not anything. For the central bankers “words speak louder than actions”. It remains to be seen as what will be the tolerable level of euro and yen against the US dollar by the ECB and bank of Japan.
Gold futures finally tested $1000. $1000 is nothing but psychological. One should expect greater volatility in gold next week on position squaring and rebuilding. Base metals will be volatile as they are long term bullish and short term bearish as per the technical charts.
NICKEL – LME 3 MONTH
It is bullish over $30214 and as long as nickel holds $30214 it will target $34000 and $37000 in short term.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0
Crude oil fails to break $112-$114 zone by next week then it will fall back to $106 and $100.0
MCXARUN
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Some of the central bankers are continuously speaking on the higher volatility and dollar depreciation but do nothing. Markets have learned to live with the comments from various central banks over the pace of the US dollars depreciation and they will not get unnerved by the same as they know that central bankers will do not anything. For the central bankers “words speak louder than actions”. It remains to be seen as what will be the tolerable level of euro and yen against the US dollar by the ECB and bank of Japan.
Gold futures finally tested $1000. $1000 is nothing but psychological. One should expect greater volatility in gold next week on position squaring and rebuilding. Base metals will be volatile as they are long term bullish and short term bearish as per the technical charts.
NICKEL – LME 3 MONTH
It is bullish over $30214 and as long as nickel holds $30214 it will target $34000 and $37000 in short term.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0
Crude oil fails to break $112-$114 zone by next week then it will fall back to $106 and $100.0
MCXARUN
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Thursday, March 13, 2008
Bullion intraday
· Gold gained in MCX/COMEX reversing an earlier decline, after the dollar fell against the euro on concern the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to revive lending among banks.
· The Fed said yesterday it will make as much as $200 billion available to revive lending among banks. The plan drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest gain in more than five years. Asian stocks rallied yesterday.
· The Federal Reserve has sold outright of 15 bln usd in Treasury bills maturing in May and June. The so-called coupon pass sold 3 bln usd each of T-bills maturing on May 8, 15, 22 and 29 and on June 5. Bids for the 15 bln usd in T-bills totaled 57 bln usd. The sale permanently changes the size of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio, transferring cash from the financial markets to the Fed's account.
· The euro continued to trade close to record highs against the dollar after euro zone industrial production data came in well above forecasts, suggesting that the European Central Bank will not be cutting interest rates any time soon.
· Data show industrial output for the region rose by 0.9 pct from December for a very strong 3.8 pct annual gain, far above the forecasts for much more moderate increases of 0.3 pct and 2.5 pct, respectively.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12650 Target 12715 and 12760 Stop loss at 12615
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy at 25550 Target 26000 and 26220 Stop loss 25315
MCXARUN
9994500540
· The Fed said yesterday it will make as much as $200 billion available to revive lending among banks. The plan drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest gain in more than five years. Asian stocks rallied yesterday.
· The Federal Reserve has sold outright of 15 bln usd in Treasury bills maturing in May and June. The so-called coupon pass sold 3 bln usd each of T-bills maturing on May 8, 15, 22 and 29 and on June 5. Bids for the 15 bln usd in T-bills totaled 57 bln usd. The sale permanently changes the size of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio, transferring cash from the financial markets to the Fed's account.
· The euro continued to trade close to record highs against the dollar after euro zone industrial production data came in well above forecasts, suggesting that the European Central Bank will not be cutting interest rates any time soon.
· Data show industrial output for the region rose by 0.9 pct from December for a very strong 3.8 pct annual gain, far above the forecasts for much more moderate increases of 0.3 pct and 2.5 pct, respectively.
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12650 Target 12715 and 12760 Stop loss at 12615
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy at 25550 Target 26000 and 26220 Stop loss 25315
MCXARUN
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Safe trade
GOLD
for the day buy only abv 12810-15/835 & more abv 12875 S/L 12780 and T/p 13000 atleast in days to come upto 13075 OR sell below 12580 S/L 12605 and T/p 12550/510/470/400 where might find support again, only sustain fall below 12380 bearish sharp (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 12500/12375/12150/11875/11575 -475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy abv 26050 S/L 25975 and T/p 26150-200/300-400/26550/ 26675/26800/uprally, sustain abv 27150 seen new rally OR sell below 25500 S/L 25610 and T/p 25375/250/175/25050/ 24900/anytime sustain below 24850 test 24000-200 atleast in days to come (any time close below 24850/23090/ 21990/21250/20150/19390/18600-250/ 17850 bearish rally while close above 26300/27150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4340 & more abv 4360 S/L 4320 and T/p 4390-4400/ 4430 OR sell only below 4250 S/L 4270 and T/p 4210/4180/55/4130 (our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/4310/4360) (now crude need to close above 4460 for bullish rally while close below 4150/ 4070/3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 341 S/L 339.75 and T/p 342.5-344.5/347-48/351/354/ sustain abv uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/281/267.5/ 254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
for the day buy only abv 12810-15/835 & more abv 12875 S/L 12780 and T/p 13000 atleast in days to come upto 13075 OR sell below 12580 S/L 12605 and T/p 12550/510/470/400 where might find support again, only sustain fall below 12380 bearish sharp (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 12500/12375/12150/11875/11575 -475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day buy abv 26050 S/L 25975 and T/p 26150-200/300-400/26550/ 26675/26800/uprally, sustain abv 27150 seen new rally OR sell below 25500 S/L 25610 and T/p 25375/250/175/25050/ 24900/anytime sustain below 24850 test 24000-200 atleast in days to come (any time close below 24850/23090/ 21990/21250/20150/19390/18600-250/ 17850 bearish rally while close above 26300/27150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4340 & more abv 4360 S/L 4320 and T/p 4390-4400/ 4430 OR sell only below 4250 S/L 4270 and T/p 4210/4180/55/4130 (our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/4310/4360) (now crude need to close above 4460 for bullish rally while close below 4150/ 4070/3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 341 S/L 339.75 and T/p 342.5-344.5/347-48/351/354/ sustain abv uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/281/267.5/ 254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4391BEARISH BELOW 4372
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12705 BEARISH BELOW 12663
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 25750 BEARISH BELOW 25655
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 338.10 BEARISH BELOW 337
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.15BEARISH BELOW 124.60
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1278 BEARISH BELOW 1270
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 105.40 BEARISH BELOW 104.90
MCXARUN
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12705 BEARISH BELOW 12663
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 25750 BEARISH BELOW 25655
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 338.10 BEARISH BELOW 337
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.15BEARISH BELOW 124.60
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1278 BEARISH BELOW 1270
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 105.40 BEARISH BELOW 104.90
MCXARUN
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