outlook

April gold was higher overnight as it rebounds off support marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 978.40. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter's rally, psychological resistance crossing
at 1000.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high
crossing at 995.20 then, psychological resistance crossing at 1000.00. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 961.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10.

May silver was higher overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at
20.116 as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 19.169 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
May renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 21.340 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 20.570. Second resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 21.325. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.280 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 19.169.

May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 380.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 416.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.44. Second resistance
is last Thursday's high crossing at 402.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 375.00
then the reaction low crossing at 368.50.

April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low into uncharted
territory, upside targets will hard to project. Although, this winter's trading range projects a
possible rally to the 113.20 area before a correction is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.20. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.24.

April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 10.185 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
9.392 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's
high crossing at 10.139. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 10.185. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.738. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.392.

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4432BEARISH BELOW 4412

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12865 BEARISH BELOW 12822

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 26345 BEARISH BELOW 26240

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.60 BEARISH BELOW 338.60

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.60BEARISH BELOW 125.00

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1303 BEARISH BELOW 1295

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.95 BEARISH BELOW 104.40

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Next week we have Easter Vacation and the Fed meeting. The Fed will not disappoint the markets and may cut interest rates by 0.75%. Trading volumes will fall next week. However the current market situation will prevent fund managers to be lazy as the market circumstances are changing every day. Some of the investment instruments have either hit historical highs or historical lows and investors asking themselves whether to exit the highs or invest in lows. For the rest of the March the US dollar and movement of US equity markets will be the key for almost all investments.

Some of the central bankers are continuously speaking on the higher volatility and dollar depreciation but do nothing. Markets have learned to live with the comments from various central banks over the pace of the US dollars depreciation and they will not get unnerved by the same as they know that central bankers will do not anything. For the central bankers “words speak louder than actions”. It remains to be seen as what will be the tolerable level of euro and yen against the US dollar by the ECB and bank of Japan.

Gold futures finally tested $1000. $1000 is nothing but psychological. One should expect greater volatility in gold next week on position squaring and rebuilding. Base metals will be volatile as they are long term bullish and short term bearish as per the technical charts.

NICKEL – LME 3 MONTH

It is bullish over $30214 and as long as nickel holds $30214 it will target $34000 and $37000 in short term.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0

Crude oil fails to break $112-$114 zone by next week then it will fall back to $106 and $100.0

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Bullion intraday

· Gold gained in MCX/COMEX reversing an earlier decline, after the dollar fell against the euro on concern the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to revive lending among banks.

· The Fed said yesterday it will make as much as $200 billion available to revive lending among banks. The plan drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest gain in more than five years. Asian stocks rallied yesterday.

· The Federal Reserve has sold outright of 15 bln usd in Treasury bills maturing in May and June. The so-called coupon pass sold 3 bln usd each of T-bills maturing on May 8, 15, 22 and 29 and on June 5. Bids for the 15 bln usd in T-bills totaled 57 bln usd. The sale permanently changes the size of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio, transferring cash from the financial markets to the Fed's account.

· The euro continued to trade close to record highs against the dollar after euro zone industrial production data came in well above forecasts, suggesting that the European Central Bank will not be cutting interest rates any time soon.

· Data show industrial output for the region rose by 0.9 pct from December for a very strong 3.8 pct annual gain, far above the forecasts for much more moderate increases of 0.3 pct and 2.5 pct, respectively.


MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 12650 Target 12715 and 12760 Stop loss at 12615

MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver May: Buy at 25550 Target 26000 and 26220 Stop loss 25315


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Safe trade

GOLD

for the day buy only abv 12810-15/835 & more abv 12875 S/L 12780 and T/p 13000 atleast in days to come upto 13075 OR sell below 12580 S/L 12605 and T/p 12550/510/470/400 where might find support again, only sustain fall below 12380 bearish sharp (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 12500/12375/12150/11875/11575 -475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day buy abv 26050 S/L 25975 and T/p 26150-200/300-400/26550/ 26675/26800/uprally, sustain abv 27150 seen new rally OR sell below 25500 S/L 25610 and T/p 25375/250/175/25050/ 24900/anytime sustain below 24850 test 24000-200 atleast in days to come (any time close below 24850/23090/ 21990/21250/20150/19390/18600-250/ 17850 bearish rally while close above 26300/27150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day buy only abv 4340 & more abv 4360 S/L 4320 and T/p 4390-4400/ 4430 OR sell only below 4250 S/L 4270 and T/p 4210/4180/55/4130 (our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/4310/4360) (now crude need to close above 4460 for bullish rally while close below 4150/ 4070/3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 341 S/L 339.75 and T/p 342.5-344.5/347-48/351/354/ sustain abv uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/281/267.5/ 254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4391BEARISH BELOW 4372

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12705 BEARISH BELOW 12663

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 25750 BEARISH BELOW 25655

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 338.10 BEARISH BELOW 337

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.15BEARISH BELOW 124.60

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1278 BEARISH BELOW 1270

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 105.40 BEARISH BELOW 104.90

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Another comment this time from US president Bush that the US dollars’ decline was not ``good tidings'' for proponents of a strong dollar. If these comments continue, the US dollar’s fall and crude oil’s rise will not stop unless there is coordinated central bank intervention. Traders and investors will use a rise as an exit opportunity in equities and invest the same else where or sit on cash. Metals and energies will be volatile. The federal reserve has been trying to use a series of measures to bring the house in order but markets have ignored such calls.

China's retail sales climbed 20.20%, the fastest pace in at least nine years, a sign that consumer spending may sustain the world's fastest- growing major economy as export demand weakens. China will slowly move away to a domestic demand growth against an export led growth and will be less dependent on US exports over the coming years. If Chinese domestic demand remains firm base metals’ long term bullish trend will be there but volatility will remain high. Steel, we are very bullish and will prefer to invest in steel stocks and steel futures for long term on any five to ten percent dip. Copper, Nickel and other base metals will be volatile.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $372.

Copper has managed to hold $372 and will target $392 and $402 once again.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0

It remains to be seen whether $112 is broken or not. Support at $106.

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