Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4060BEARISH BELOW 4044

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12518 BEARISH BELOW 12477

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 25585 BEARISH BELOW 25480

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339 BEARISH BELOW 338

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 136BEARISH BELOW 135.30

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1322 BEARISH BELOW 1315

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 111.90 BEARISH BELOW 111.30

MCXARUN
9994500540

Stock2Watch

at open :- Indian shares could extend their losses into 5th consecutive day due to growing worries about problems in global credit markets, with subdued Asian markets seen providing little support ** Nifty levels :- S1-4800 S2-4700 R1-5000 R2-5100, sustain below 4800 test ard 4600 atleast in coming days ** Stock Watch :- Tata Motors Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd, Real estate firm Unitech Ltd

MCXARUN
9994500540

Copper Futures

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched. Nevertheless, the 50-Day new high here may result in additional bullish momentum.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days. Nevertheless, the 50-Day new high here may result in additional bullish momentum.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 74.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 74.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

4.0560 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.9670 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.9670 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.9515 - High
3.9400 - Last Price
3.9110 - Low
3.9078 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.8568 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.8252 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.6640 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.5818 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.4582 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.3791 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3787 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3036 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2590 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.9505 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

Energy Futures

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 67.49). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 67.49 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

106.42 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
103.95 - Highest High in last 10-Days
103.95 - Highest High in last 50-Days
102.65 - High
102.57 - Last Price
102.29 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
102.00 - Low
101.50 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
100.59 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
96.87 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
95.45 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
94.48 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
93.04 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
91.67 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.75 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
83.09 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 67.52). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 67.52 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

9.746 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
9.605 - Highest High in last 10-Days
9.605 - Highest High in last 50-Days
9.347 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
9.330 - High
9.330 - Last Price
9.275 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
9.275 - Low
9.199 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.771 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
8.630 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
8.333 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
8.204 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.862 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.847 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.283 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.950 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

Precious Metals Futures

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 75.42). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 75.42 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

992.00 - Highest High in last 50-Days
992.00 - Highest High in last 10-Days
991.87 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
989.70 - High
988.20 - Last Price
985.60 - Low
982.47 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
964.00 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
960.01 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
933.22 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
916.10 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
908.24 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
902.24 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
880.37 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
849.48 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
797.20 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
767.11 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI has issued a bearish signal (RSI is at 87.06). When RSI crosses above the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00) a bearish signal is issued.However, the market may continue to become more overbought before a top is established, particularly given the 50-Day new high here. We need to see evidence of a downturn in RSI before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

20.740 - Highest High in last 50-Days
20.740 - Highest High in last 10-Days
20.500 - High
20.465 - Last Price
20.449 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
20.370 - Low
20.187 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
19.242 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
18.995 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
17.796 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
17.205 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.827 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
16.727 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.620 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.570 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.263 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
14.080 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Hardly anything to comment on the markets, as metals benefit from a weaker US dollar and soft equity markets. Some section of the market has started pricing in a 0.75% interest rate cut by the Fed this month. If equity markets continue to fall before the Fed meeting the Fed will definitely deliver a 0.75% interest rate cut. The run up to the Fed meeting will be interesting which will be volatile in all metals unlike February which was more or less one way traffic. Every US economic number before the Fed meeting will be read minutely by the markets.

The Euro has remained firm against the US dollar and the sterling. The prime reason for this is European traders diversifying exports to Asia and other emerging nations as a hedge against a US slowdown which has given good results. However when Asian and other countries slow down due to higher prices and a strong currency the eurozone will slow down and the euro will fall. The pace of the rise of the euro and metals has been on the higher side. When will the law of gravity act on metals remains to be seen, but it will happen sooner than later.

MCXARUN
9994500540

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Outlook

April gold closed higher on Tuesday and posted a new contract high close. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 978.50 is the next
upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 899.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 958.40 then monthly resistance crossing at 978.50. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 929.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 899.50.

March silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday and posted a new contract high as it extended this winter's rally. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 19.870 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.281 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.865 then monthly resistance crossing at
19.870. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.716 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.281.

March copper closed higher on Tuesday and closed above October's high crossing at 375.00. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that
a double top with October's high might be forming. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 387.00 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 367.10 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 384.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 387.00.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 367.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
352.19.

April crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally above the previous reaction high crossing at 98.50. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are
turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's
rally above January's high, upside targets will be hard to project now that April has traded into uncharted territory. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 101.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.37. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 93.86.

April Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and closed above the previous contract high crossing at 9.222. Profit taking
tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 9.820 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at 8.883 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.391 then monthly
resistance crossing at 9.820. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.883. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.478.

MCXARUN
9994500540