Friday, February 22, 2008

mcx charts

MCX gold day chart

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MCX silver day chart

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MCXARUN
9994500540

Energy Futures

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.67 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.86 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.86 - Highest High in last 10-Days
100.28 - High
100.13 - Last Price
100.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
99.84 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
99.66 - Low
96.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
95.00 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.92 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.94 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
91.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
88.82 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.24 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.06 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
81.60 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.77). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.77 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

9.110 - Highest High in last 50-Days
9.110 - Highest High in last 10-Days
9.067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.975 - High
8.958 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.933 - Last Price
8.909 - Low
8.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.607 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.188 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.971 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.879 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.879 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.683 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.483 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.228 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

Copper Futures

Copper:

Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 71.51). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 71.51 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

3.7882 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.7535 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.7535 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.7535 - High
3.7525 - Last Price
3.7282 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.7175 - Low
3.6016 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.5838 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3663 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3648 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2912 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2760 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.2402 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2283 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0417 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

Precious Metals Futures

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Bearish momentum has also been confirmed by the MACD, which has issued a bearish signal. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 65.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 65.56 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

949.20 - Highest High in last 50-Days
949.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
948.50 - High
944.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
943.80 - Last Price
941.00 - Low
937.13 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
931.41 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
920.86 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
911.31 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
905.80 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
899.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
892.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
878.16 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
832.85 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
756.16 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

17.945 - High
17.945 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.945 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.870 - Last Price
17.868 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
17.785 - Low
17.713 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
17.437 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
17.347 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.804 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.577 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
16.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.146 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.956 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.127 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.028 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

A great performance by all metals this week on the back of a lack of major market moving news. No News is Good News for the markets. I am concerned over the pace of the rise of the metals especially of the base metals. The rise has been too swift. When we write that LME copper will to rise to $9000 and more in the next two to three months, it does not mean that LME copper rises $100-$150 every day. Why is it happening? Earlier manufacturers were maintaining reduced their inventory levels on expectations on a further fall in prices. Now as copper prices zoom, manufactures have increased their copper inventory and have also started hedging in the future markets as copper price rise has caught them off guard. Copper demand in the futures market as well as the physical market rises. The same is with all the base metals.

Gold has risen $50 in one week. At this pace gold should rise to $1200 by March. Scary investors are investing in gold as they expect Fed to cut interest rates every meeting to nearly zero. I have mentioned in the past also that interest rate cuts are no solution to excesses done by the Fed and other central banks. Even one bit of positive economic numbers next week from the US can reverse gold and equity gains. Gold rises at $50 a week and the subsequent high volatility will harm the jewelers as they sit idle.

GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$942.0

$956.30 priced target achieved. Gold has to break $959-$965 zone for $978 and $989. Key support at $938, $931.60

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $102.0

Failure of crude oil to break $102 by next week will result in a fall to $93.20 and $89.60


MCXARUN
9994500540

Thursday, February 21, 2008

For Safe Trade

GOLD
for the day buy only abv 11990-12000 S/L 11970 and T/p 12050-70 atleast upto 12140-50 OR buy ard 11800-810 S/L 11790 and T/p 11850-900 (any time close above 11980 bullish while close below 11475/11300/10950-900/10500/ 10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

or the day buy abv 22725 S/L 22650 and T/p 22800-900/23000 OR buy ard 22380-400 S/L 22350 and T/p 22525-625 (any time close below 21700 -475/20950/20300/19725/19375/ 19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 22725/23150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

EIA Crude oil Inventory schedule to release today. book profit on buy abv 3815/3910, for the day buy only abv 3970-75 S/L 3955 and T/p 4000-25 atleast upto 4080 in days to come OR buy ard 3898-3902 S/L 3890 and T/p 3930-50 (now crude need to close above 3970 for bullish rally while close below 3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/ 2810 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 328 S/L 327 and T/p 330-32/sustain abv 332 seen new rally test 342-45 atleast in day to come OR buy ard 321-321.25 S/L 320.5 and T/p 323-325 (upside strong rally only on close above 328/ 332/348 while close below 307-302/ 286.5/278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion comex long view

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 955-965 UPTO $ 990-1000 WITH ANY SUSTAIN CLOSE ABOVE $937, AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $ 913 AGAIN CORRECTION AHEAD

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 17.90-18 UPTO $ 18.40-50 WITH ANY SUSTAIN CLOSE
ABOVE $ 17.65, AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $ 17.15 AGAIN CORRECTION AHEAD

MCXARUN
9994500540