Precious Metals Futures

COMEX Gold:

Gold trading is weaker in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are showing the market in a neutral price pattern at present.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 54.57). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 54.57 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

943.72 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
942.20 - Highest High in last 50-Days
941.80 - Highest High in last 10-Days
926.43 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
912.20 - High
910.74 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
910.07 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
908.90 - Last Price
908.70 - Low
905.96 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
891.85 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
888.40 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
874.56 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
868.26 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
825.45 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
751.31 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

COMEX Silver:

Silver futures are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.16). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 64.16 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

17.650 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.650 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.645 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
17.390 - High
17.298 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
17.290 - Low
17.290 - Last Price
17.169 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
16.979 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.594 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.230 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.217 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
15.741 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.720 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
14.974 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
13.948 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

MCXARUN
9994500540

remember

//GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 12000-12100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 11810-875(APRIL)//

remember this long view call our long view calls gold 1st target hit

we gave that day before day need proof click here

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22700-750 Max UPTO 23000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 22425, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 21700 TEST 21400-21250 AGAIN(MAR)

silver 2nd target hit

CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 3850-70-3900 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 3810, AND CLOSE ABOVE 3900-3935 RALLY TEST 4050-4100 ATLEAST(MAR)

crude all target hit and move to next target

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 130 UPTO 133 Max TO 140 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 123-125, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 116.5 TEST 113-111 ATLEAST
(FEB)

lead 2nd target hit

long view calls 85% accuracy in our prediction,
intraday and short time calls should be with stoploss

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Short term hot money has moved into commodities as all metals, energies and soft commodities continue to rise sharply every day. Expectations that commodities will outperform equities this year has also resulted in some long term investments coming at lower levels. The Fed cutting 2008 US growth prospects and saying that the US economy could face further setbacks even after a series of interest rate cuts also contributed to the metals rise. Gold and precious metals rises are still justified as they are a hedge against a global slowdown and dwindling value of the US dollar.

I am not a crude oil bull and higher crude oil prices will only increase the use of alternate energy and start affecting crude oil demand in the long term, In the short term crude oil prices can test $112 and $121. I still expect crude oil prices to top out next month.

We were doing a survey among our retail clients, friends, relatives and people whom we know over the past few weeks on their expectations of future gold prices. Most of them responded by saying that in the long term Indian prices will rise to INR 15,000 per ten grams. But they will wait for some more correction to invest in gold. When we told them they could invest in gold exchange traded funds (GETF), they responded by saying that they never knew of such an investment avenue and they were also hesitant to invest as they do not have a proven track record. Based on this, our conclusions are that Indian gold demand may be low at the moment, but certainly not down and out. Indian gold demand will rise and be normal as and when prices stabilize and investors get used to higher prices. There is still lack of awareness of investment in gold exchanged traded funds.

Momentum is bullish. Continue to buy on dips and looks for signs of a top being formed and then go short. Use higher stop losses and then go short.

GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$932.0

Gold is on the way to our target of $956.30 and $993 as long as $932 and $916 holds.

COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $366.0

Copper targets $382, $392 as long as $362 and $357 holds.

MCXARUN
9994500540

INTRADAY CANDLE CHART(SUPPORTS)

THIS YELLOW LINES WITH WHILE TIPS ALL INTRADAY SUPPORTS, INTRADAY RESIST IS 942$

click the pic to enlarge


MCXARUN
9994500540

gold chart day handle

Market is going the right way, every time itz give the chance to re-enter,
this low level line hold the support, if this line breaks only market down side

click the pic to enlarge


MCXARUN
9994500540

Bullion Intraday

Gold rose in Asia on speculation a slowing U.S. economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment to the dollar.

· MCX Gold April traded near Rs. 11559 per 10 gram and MCX Silver March traded near Rs. 21865 with positive trend. Similarly International Spot gold remain above $900 dollar mark and registered days high at $907.65, Silver rose towards high of $17.23

· The US dollar weakened against the yen and the euro in Asian afternoon trade Monday as investors bet on a deeper Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month on growing pessimism about the US economy.

· Traders increased bets the Fed will cut borrowing costs further to prevent the economy from falling into a recession. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders see a 34 percent chance that the Fed will lower the target lending rate by 75 basis points at its next policy meeting on March 18, up from 30 percent a week ago. The odds of a 50-basis-point cut are 66 percent.

· Platinum rose to a record in Asia on concern that supply will be limited by electricity shortages in South Africa and damage to an Anglo Platinum Ltd. smelter. Futures in Tokyo surged the daily limit.

· Electrical equipment affected by an accident at the smelter will take four to six weeks to repair, the world's biggest producer of the metal said Feb. 15, adding to investor concerns about output reliability from South Africa, which represents about 80 percent of global supply.

Indian Bullion Spot Market

Precious metals finished down in spot markets mauled by a strong dollar. There was some upside support from an upbeat crude oil and on expectations of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) finished at Rs 11,650 per 10 gm and gold (.999) at Rs 11,705/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 21,605/kg. Arrivals in silver were at 250 kilos.

· Chennai gold (995) and gold (.999) finished at Rs 11,750/10gm and Rs 11,800/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 21,250/kg.

· Jaipur gold standard closed at Rs 11,750/10gm whereas Silver (.999) finished at Rs 21,600/kg.

· Ahmedabad gold (995) ends at Rs 11,590/10gm and gold (.999) ends at Rs 11,649/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 21,600/kg.

· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs 11,640/10gm and gold (.999) at Rs 11,700/10gm whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 21,225/kg.

MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 11510-520 for the target of 11640 and 11690 with stop loss at 11485

MCX Silver Mar

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 21820-800 for the target of 22100 and 22350 with stop loss at 21765

MCXARUN
9994500540

Base Metals

· Copper rose to its highest in almost four months in London as imports of the metal into China, the world's largest user, advanced to the most since April. Aluminium and zinc also climbed. MCX Copper Feb traded above Rs. 316 per kg, Zinc Feb traded near Rs. 94 per kg, Lead Feb traded near Rs. 120 per kg and Nickel Feb traded at Rs. 1094 per kg.

· Chinese imports of copper gained to 239,500 metric tons in January, 6.6 percent more than the 224,600 tons in December, the Beijing-based customs office said today.

· Gains accelerated after the LME reported copper stockpiles declined to a four-month low. They dropped 6,275 tons, or 4.2 percent, to 144,375 tons, the biggest drop since Oct. 17.

· Inventories including those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, totaled 188,244 tons, the lowest since Oct. 31, 2006. That's equal to 3.7 days of global consumption, based on estimated usage of 18.74 million tons. The average was 4.9 days last year.

· China, the world's largest producer and consumer of aluminum, said that January exports of the metal fell 6.6 percent from December. It was the first monthly drop since October, according to Bloomberg data.

· Aluminum has gained 18 percent this year after power shortages in China and South Africa. The contract for delivery in three months rose $27 to $2,847 a ton on the LME.

· Zinc had a supply shortfall of 15,000 tons last year, compared with consumption of 11.41 million tons, the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group said today on its Web site. Lead's shortfall was 70,000 tons, compared with demand of 8.22 million tons, the group said.

· Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co., China's fifth-largest zinc producer by capacity, cut its capacity utilization rate because of power shortages, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Chihong can produce as much as 180,000 tons of zinc a year, according to Antaike.

Copper Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Sell at 316-317 for the target of 310 and 305 with stop loss at 319.90

MCX Zinc Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Feb: Sell at 94 for the target of 90.50 and 89 with stop loss at 94.80

MCX Nickel Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Feb: Sell at 1110 for the target of 1080 and 1060 with stop loss at 1135

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Lead Feb: Buy at 117.50 for the target of 121 and 123 with stop loss at 116.20

MCXARUN
9994500540